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Business, Government & the International Economy

Business, Government & the International Economy

  • Faculty
  • Curriculum
  • Seminars & Conferences
  • Awards & Honors
Overview Faculty Curriculum Seminars & Conferences Awards & Honors
    • 2023
    • Working Paper

    Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach

    By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta

    We combine standard structural-break methods with high-frequency data to identify shifts in inflation trends. We use this approach to study the inflation dynamics of 25 countries from January 2022 to April 2023 and find evidence of a broad-based slowdown in about half of them, including the US. The high-frequency and depth of the data allow us to detect the breaks within a few weeks for a large number of disaggregated sectors, providing an advantage over CPI data for real-time analysis. We apply single and multiple-break strategies; allowing for multiple breaks helps us identify relevant breaks in some sectors but does not significantly change our main results.

    • 2023
    • Working Paper

    Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach

    By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta

    We combine standard structural-break methods with high-frequency data to identify shifts in inflation trends. We use this approach to study the inflation dynamics of 25 countries from January 2022 to April 2023 and find evidence of a broad-based slowdown in about half of them, including the US. The high-frequency and depth of the data allow us to...

    • May 2023
    • Article

    How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

    By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons

    We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election, and show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns. Changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in issues voters find most important and in beliefs about candidates, and they generate sizable swings in vote shares. In contrast, policy preferences remain remarkably stable throughout the campaign. Finally, we use an event study to estimate the impact of TV debates, in which candidates themselves communicate with voters, and of shocks such as natural and technological disasters which, by contrast, occur independently from the campaign. We do not find any effect of either type of event on vote choice formation, suggesting that information received throughout the campaign from other sources such as the media, political activists, and other citizens is more impactful.

    • May 2023
    • Article

    How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

    By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons

    We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different...

    • March 2023
    • Case

    Thailand: Red Shirts, Yellow Shirts, and a Green Revolution

    By: Jaya Wen

    • March 2023
    • Case

    Thailand: Red Shirts, Yellow Shirts, and a Green Revolution

    By: Jaya Wen

About the Unit

The BGIE Unit conducts research on, and teaches about, the economic, political, social, and legal environment in which business operates. The Unit includes scholars trained in economics, political science, and history; in its work, it draws on perspectives from all three of these disciplines.

The following demonstrates one way of classifying the approaches the Unit takes to learning and teaching.

  • The Unit examines the “rules” and policies established by government and other non-business institutions that affect business in the United States.
  • The Unit turns to history to understand the origins of today’s business environment as well as some of the alternatives that have emerged from time to time.
  • The Unit examines other countries’ business environments and their historical development.
  • The BGIE group is deeply interested in the impact of globalization and the way rules are emerging to govern international economic transactions as globalization proceeds.

Recent Publications

TikTok and National Security: Investment in an Age of Data Sovereignty?

By: Jeremy Friedman
  • May 2023 |
  • Teaching Note |
  • Faculty Research
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 722-020.
Citation
Purchase
Related
Friedman, Jeremy. "TikTok and National Security: Investment in an Age of Data Sovereignty?" Harvard Business School Teaching Note 723-064, May 2023.

Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach

By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta
  • 2023 |
  • Working Paper |
  • Faculty Research
We combine standard structural-break methods with high-frequency data to identify shifts in inflation trends. We use this approach to study the inflation dynamics of 25 countries from January 2022 to April 2023 and find evidence of a broad-based slowdown in about half of them, including the US. The high-frequency and depth of the data allow us to detect the breaks within a few weeks for a large number of disaggregated sectors, providing an advantage over CPI data for real-time analysis. We apply single and multiple-break strategies; allowing for multiple breaks helps us identify relevant breaks in some sectors but does not significantly change our main results.
Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price
Citation
Read Now
Related
Cavallo, Alberto, and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta. "Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach." Working Paper, May 2023. (Preliminary draft.)

How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
  • May 2023 |
  • Article |
  • Quarterly Journal of Economics
We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election, and show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns. Changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in issues voters find most important and in beliefs about candidates, and they generate sizable swings in vote shares. In contrast, policy preferences remain remarkably stable throughout the campaign. Finally, we use an event study to estimate the impact of TV debates, in which candidates themselves communicate with voters, and of shocks such as natural and technological disasters which, by contrast, occur independently from the campaign. We do not find any effect of either type of event on vote choice formation, suggesting that information received throughout the campaign from other sources such as the media, political activists, and other citizens is more impactful.
Keywords: Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Choices and Conditions
Citation
Find at Harvard
Read Now
Related
Le Pennec, Caroline, and Vincent Pons. "How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138 (May 2023): 703–767.

Ukraine: On the Border of Europe and Eurasia (C)

By: Rawi Abdelal, Kateryna Olkhovyk and Davit Gasparyan
  • March 2023 |
  • Supplement |
  • Faculty Research
Citation
Related
Abdelal, Rawi, Kateryna Olkhovyk, and Davit Gasparyan. "Ukraine: On the Border of Europe and Eurasia (C)." Harvard Business School Supplement 723-058, March 2023.

Thailand: Red Shirts, Yellow Shirts, and a Green Revolution

By: Jaya Wen
  • March 2023 |
  • Case |
  • Faculty Research
Citation
Educators
Related
Wen, Jaya. "Thailand: Red Shirts, Yellow Shirts, and a Green Revolution." Harvard Business School Case 723-010, March 2023.

How Putin Uses Hanoi’s 1960s Playbook to Divide the American Public on Foreign Policy

By: Jeremy Friedman
  • March 16, 2023 |
  • Other Article |
  • Jurist
Keywords: Public Opinion; International Relations
Citation
Read Now
Related
Friedman, Jeremy. "How Putin Uses Hanoi’s 1960s Playbook to Divide the American Public on Foreign Policy." Jurist (March 16, 2023).

Copper Nationalization in Chile

By: Jeremy Friedman
  • March 2023 |
  • Teaching Note |
  • Faculty Research
Teaching Note for HBS Case 722-016.
Citation
Purchase
Related
Friedman, Jeremy. "Copper Nationalization in Chile." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 723-055, March 2023.

Golden Agri-Resources and the Challenge of Sustainable Palm Oil

By: Mattias Fibiger and Adina Wong
  • March 2023 (Revised March 2023) |
  • Case |
  • Faculty Research
Citation
Educators
Related
Fibiger, Mattias, and Adina Wong. "Golden Agri-Resources and the Challenge of Sustainable Palm Oil." Harvard Business School Case 723-059, March 2023. (Revised March 2023.)
More Publications

In the News

    • 26 May 2023
    • Harvard Business School

    Faculty Recognition

    Re: Vincent Pons
    • 24 May 2023
    • Harvard Business School

    Five Harvard Business School Faculty Members Receive Class of 2023 Faculty Teaching Award Honors

    Re: Meg Rithmire, Sophus Reinert, Tony Mayo, Charlotte Robertson & Tom Nicholas
    • 22 May 2023
    • Le Monde

    ÉCONOMIE ÉCONOMIE FRANÇAISE Julia Cagé et Vincent Pons, économistes : « L’alternance politique améliore les performances économiques »

    Re: Vincent Pons
→More Faculty News

HBS Working Knowledge

    • 27 Apr 2023

    Equity Bank CEO James Mwangi: Transforming Lives with Access to Credit

    Re: Caroline M. Elkins
    • 31 Oct 2022

    Why the Largest Minority Group Faces the Most Hate—and How to Push Back

    Re: Marco E. Tabellini
    • 17 Oct 2022

    Why Quiet Quitters Need More Than Money to Re-Engage

    Re: Rawi E. Abdelal & Benson P. Shapiro
→More Working Knowledge Articles

Harvard Business Publishing

    • March 2012
    • Article

    Macroeconomic Policy and U.S. Competitiveness

    By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Matthew Weinzierl
    • February 2023 (Revised March 2023)
    • Case

    Amazon and the Future of Organized Labor

    By: Reshmaan Hussam, Trevor Fetter and Grace Liu
→More Harvard Business Publishing

Seminars & Conferences

There are no upcoming events.

→More Seminars & Conferences

Faculty Positions

Harvard Business School seeks candidates in all fields for full time positions. Candidates with outstanding records in PhD or DBA programs are encouraged to apply.
→Learn More

Contact Information

Business, Government & the International Economy Unit
Harvard Business School
Morgan Hall
Soldiers Field
Boston, MA 02163
BGIE@hbs.edu

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