Finance

Finance is a featured research topic at Harvard Business School.

Our intellectual roots are based in a long line of scholars from Robert Merton whose collaborative work on risk management and option pricing won him the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1997, to John Lintner who co-created the Capital Asset Pricing Model and made significant contributions to dividend policy, and Gordon Donaldson whose work helped shape the field of corporate finance. We strive to understand how managers and firms make value-enhancing decisions; and how financial institutions, markets, and instruments contribute to this process. Our approach to research is distinguished by its unique combination of theory, empirical analysis, mathematical modeling, and field observations at companies.

Featured Works

Working Paper | 2016
Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News
Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on more favorable analysts experience more negative future earnings surprises and more future earnings restatements. A long-short portfolio that exploits this differential firm behavior earns abnormal returns of up to 149 basis points per month, or almost 18 percent per year. We find similar evidence in an international sample of earnings call transcripts from the UK, Canada, France, and Japan. Firms with higher discretionary accruals, firms that barely meet/exceed earnings expectations, and firms (and their executives) that are about to issue equity, sell shares, and exercise options, are all significantly more likely to cast their earnings calls.
Keywords: Information; Strategy; Ethics;

Citation:
Cohen, Lauren, Dong Lou, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News." Working Paper, October 2016. (Winner of 2014 Crowell Memorial Prize For the best paper on quantitative investing, PanAgora Asset Management, Inc. 2014.) View Details
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Article | American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings | May 2014
Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment
Shawn A. Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand, consistent with overinference from small samples. Second, spillovers also matter, in the sense that the recent payout experience of village co-residents affects insurance demand about as much as one's own recent payout experience. Third, the spillover effect decays as time passes while the effect of one's own experience does not. We discuss implications of this analysis for commercial sustainability of this complicated but promising risk management technology.

Citation:
Cole, Shawn A., Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 104, no. 5 (May 2014): 284–290. View Details
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Article | Review of Financial Studies | 2014
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.
Keywords: Performance Expectations; Investment Return;

Citation:
Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
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Article | Journal of Financial Economics | August 2014
Mortgage Convexity
Samuel G. Hanson
Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS duration function as large-scale shocks to the quantity of interest rate risk that must be borne by professional bond investors. I develop a simple model in which the risk tolerance of bond investors is limited in the short run, so these fluctuations in MBS duration generate significant variation in bond risk premia. Specifically, bond risk premia are high when aggregate MBS duration is high. The model offers an explanation for why long-term rates could appear to be excessively sensitive to movements in short rates and explains how changes in MBS duration act as a positive-feedback mechanism that amplifies interest rate volatility. I find strong support for these predictions in the time series of US government bond returns.
Keywords: Mortgages; Interest Rates; Volatility;

Citation:
Hanson, Samuel G. "Mortgage Convexity." Journal of Financial Economics 113, no. 2 (August 2014): 270–299. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
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Working Paper | 2014
Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a crowding out of corporate lending. For a given domestic firm, new debt is less likely to be a loan—i.e., the loan supply contracts—when local banks have purchased more domestic sovereign debt and when that debt is risky (as measured by CDS spreads). These effects are most pronounced in the period following the second Greek bailout in early 2010.
Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Greece;

Citation:
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Working Paper, April 2014. View Details
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Recent Publications

Case | HBS Case Collection | March 2020
Generation Investment Management
Vikram S. Gandhi and Sarah Mehta
In January 2020, sustainable investment firm Generation Investment Management (Generation), was debating whether to terminate coverage of John Deere, one of its 47 portfolio companies. Generation believed that the type of mechanized agriculture enabled by John Deere’s products was a vital tool for improving crop yield and farm productivity, and for feeding the world’s growing population at scale. As time had passed, however, Generation’s partners and analysts had grown increasingly concerned about the broader impacts of agriculture, which accounted for up to 90% of freshwater consumption and generated about 24% of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. These concerns, coupled with emerging consumer trends that might reduce long-term demand for John Deere’s products, had led Generation to consider removing the company from its focus list of potential portfolio companies.
Keywords: Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Finance; Equity; Governance; Private Equity; Public Equity; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Investment Activism; Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Institutional Investing; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom; England; London;

Citation:
Gandhi, Vikram S., and Sarah Mehta. "Generation Investment Management." Harvard Business School Case 820-033, March 2020. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | March 2020
A Tower for the People: 425 Park Avenue
John Macomber, Joseph Allen and Emily Jones
Healthy buildings and superior air quality are increasingly important since people now spend so much time indoors. Indoor spaces drive performance and productivity. Commercial real estate landords and investors are responding to the demands of sophisticated tenants and end users by making investment choices around indoor air quality and certification, and related expectations for increased rent or increased occupancy. It's anticipated that these learnings will extend to other situations including offices, schools, hospitals, factories, and homes. This case investigates the tradeoffs in several engineering, marketing, and finance decisions. The setting is a billion dollar premier new office building on Park Avenue in New York City, designed by the eminent architecture firm Foster + Partners. The decision factors in the case include health information from CogFX and 9 Foundations of Healthy Buildings research from the TH Chan Harvard School of Public Health.
Keywords: health and wellness; real estate; sustainability; Health; Pollution; Buildings and Facilities; Performance Productivity; Finance; Real Estate Industry; New York (city, NY);

Citation:
Macomber, John, Joseph Allen, and Emily Jones. "A Tower for the People: 425 Park Avenue." Harvard Business School Case 220-065, March 2020. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | February 2020
Rotoplas: Bringing More and Better Water
John D. Macomber and Carla Larangeira
Private companies were being turned to for potable water in the world’s megacities due to impacts of climate change including droughts and flooding. Mexico City had endured several water-related crises, with its population suffering from floods, droughts, water shutoffs and disease. Although some access to piped water services was practically universal for Mexico City residents, services were limited or discontinuous. An accommodation that most households had made was in purchasing and installing a water holding tank on the roof or in the ground, with Rotoplás, a Mexican based water product and services provider, enjoying more than 55% of tank market share in Mexico. Rotoplás had ventured into wastewater treatment and recycling in 2016 with the acquisition of Sytesa, a design, construction, financing, operation, and maintenance business for wastewater management for industry and businesses. Market segments included lighter corporate users like shopping malls and heavy users like food processors or mining companies, and maybe “water as a service” would also end up as the place to be to supplement and assist homeowner associations and even municipal governments. However, services revenue was today a tiny fraction of overall cash flow at Rotoplás. The presence of larger competitors like Suez and Veolia and as well as unfavorable pricing and regulations could potentially slow down future growth. Could Rotoplás services be part of the solution to the water crisis in the nation’s capital? Or was the situation too intractable for even this local champion company to tackle? What pricing and regulatory changes might lead to financial and technical solutions for Mexico City’s water crisis?
Keywords: Finance; Infrastructure; Urban Development; Latin America;

Citation:
Macomber, John D., and Carla Larangeira. "Rotoplas: Bringing More and Better Water." Harvard Business School Case 220-064, February 2020. View Details
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Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2019
Impact Investing: A Theory of Financing Social Entrepreneurship
Benjamin N. Roth
I present a model of financing social enterprises to delineate the role of impact investors relative to “pure” philanthropists. I characterize the optimal scale and structure of a social enterprise when financed by grants, and when financed by investments. The analysis yields two heuristics to guide impact investors. First, investments allow a financier to discipline inefficient spending. Second, investments may enable a social enterprise to exploit new opportunities for profit, and may increase the enterprise’s scale relative to when grant financed. I quantify these heuristics for the case of Husk Power, a social enterprise that has received impact investment.
Keywords: impact investing; Social Entrepreneurship; Finance; Investment; Mathematical Methods;

Citation:
Roth, Benjamin N. "Impact Investing: A Theory of Financing Social Entrepreneurship." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-078, February 2020. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | January 2020
Celata Bioinnovations
John R. Wells and Benjamin Weinstock
In December 2019, Jon Hu (Harvard Business School MBA, 2019) and Dr. Samantha Dale Strasser, co-founders of Celata Bioinnovations, were raising $1 million to launch their company. They had founded Celata less than six months earlier with the aim of redefining the drug discovery process. Celata’s platform used novel data types and a unique data integration process to generate hypotheses about proteins that were involved in the formation and progression of disease. They believed the platform was better and faster at identifying actionable biological targets, increasing the speed of discovery and reducing the chances of failure, promising to lower costs and bring drugs to market more quickly. Their platform had achieved proof of concept during Strasser’s PhD research at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), when it helped identify and validate a target related to Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) in mouse models. However, full validation wouldn’t come until their platform was used to develop a drug that successfully treated a disease in humans, a process that could take several years.
In the first instance, Celata’s platform was best suited to identify targets for cancers, inflammatory diseases, and neurodegenerative diseases, which collectively presented a global market opportunity of over $200 billion. However, Hu and Strasser were debating which opportunities to pursue. Should they try to improve the efficacy of current drugs, or go for brand new opportunities, indications for which there were no solutions on the market? And if they focused on the latter, should they just look for large market opportunities, or include “orphan” diseases, for which there was a relatively small market? Should they look for small molecule drug candidates, or include large molecule biologics in their search? And where should they operate in the drug development pipeline? At one extreme, they could sell potential drug candidates to established pharmaceutical companies; at the other, they could “go full pharma” and build a new pharmaceutical company themselves.
Keywords: drug development; drug discovery; Drug Trials; Pharmaceutical Companies; Pharmaceutical Company; Pharmaceuticals; therapeutics; Biologics; biotech; biotechnology; biopharmacy company; biochemistry; technology commercialization; technology companies; Drug Testing; Startup; start-up; Startups; start-ups; Startup financing; strategic decision making; strategic decisions; strategic evolution; FDA; Food and Drug Administration; clinical trials; disease management; market attractiveness; Market entry; market opportunities; Health Disorders; Technological Innovation; Technology; Commercialization; Business Startups; Finance; Decision Making; Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Opportunities; Pharmaceutical Industry; Biotechnology Industry;

Citation:
Wells, John R., and Benjamin Weinstock. "Celata Bioinnovations." Harvard Business School Case 720-427, January 2020. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | December 2019
Forecasting ClimaCell
Joshua Lev Krieger, Christopher Stanton and James Barnett
A weather technology startup, ClimaCell considers the R＆D trade-offs and financing implications of pursuing a proposed contract with a major automobile maker, rather than continuing its focus on building a scalable, all-purpose weather prediction engine.
Keywords: Weather; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Research and Development; Finance; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Making; Strategy;

Citation:
Krieger, Joshua Lev, Christopher Stanton, and James Barnett. "Forecasting ClimaCell." Harvard Business School Case 820-044, December 2019. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | November 2019
DeepGreen and Polymetallic Nodules
Richard H.K. Vietor
The world has begun a “green transition” – a move to reduce carbon emissions. Part of this will entail a growing shift to electric vehicles. Huge amounts of metals – cobalt, nickel, copper – will be needed to supply electric vehicles. Mining these on land, however, is carbon intensive and immensely destructive of the natural environment. DeepGreen, in conjunction with Nauru, has been developing a mining system for polymetallic nodules that cover the ocean floor in the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture zone. This huge mineral resource – approximately 34 billion tons of metallic nodules – is regulated by the International Seabed Authority (of the United Nations). DeepGreen, perhaps the most advanced of several competitors, will eventually need more than $4 billion to develop the commercial mining system and specialized smelting facilities. The question is, can an entrepreneurial firm raise the necessary capital, succeed with the regulation and surmount the technical challenges that nodules impose?
Keywords: polymetallic nodules; seabed mining; entrepreneurial finance; Metals and Minerals; Mining; Entrepreneurship; Finance; Problems and Challenges;

Citation:
Vietor, Richard H.K. "DeepGreen and Polymetallic Nodules." Harvard Business School Case 720-016, November 2019. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | October 2019 (Revised December 2019)
BC Partners: Acuris
Victoria Ivashina and Terrence Shu
This case follows Nikos Stathopoulos, Managing Partner of BC Partners, as he and his team evaluate the potential sale of one of BC Partners’ portfolio companies, Acuris. Acuris was a global financial intelligence, news, and data company that had been acquired by BC Partners only three years prior. During that time, Stathopoulos and his team had been able to implement a variety of operational improvements and acquisitions which resulted in BC Partners receiving numerous offers for both full and partial sales of the company, at attractive multiples. But the BC Partners team felt there was still more gain to be realized from their value-add initiatives, and there were also several initiatives they had identified but not yet implemented. Stathopoulos had to decide: should they pursue a full sale, partial sale, or no sale at all?
Keywords: fund management; fund raising; Leveraged Buyout; buyout; portfolio management; operations improvement; exit; exit strategy; valuation ratios; Finance; Private Equity; Leveraged Buyouts; Operations; Performance Improvement; Acquisition; Valuation;

Citation:
Ivashina, Victoria, and Terrence Shu. "BC Partners: Acuris." Harvard Business School Case 220-041, October 2019. (Revised December 2019.) View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | October 2019
Kaspi.kz IPO
Victoria Ivashina and Esel Çekin
This case follows Kaspi.kz, a private equity (Baring Vostok) co-owned retail bank in Central Asia that evolved into a fintech, payments and e-commerce company. It provides insights into private equity financing, portfolio company management, and initial public offering practices. In particular, the case focuses on (i) the bank’s journey from a traditional bank that serviced only corporations to an online platform, and (ii) the timing and process of preparation for an IPO. The management initially concentrated on profitability, but they soon shifted their emphasis to customer experience. The results were rewarding: Kaspi.kz became the number one player in online commerce, online payments, and consumer financing in Kazakhstan. The challenge of the IPO decisions is its timing: communicating the success of the fast transformation of the firm and its potential for further growth, especially in an emerging market like Kazakhstan, was far from trivial. From a business perspective, even a short delay of six months could potentially add millions of dollars to its value. Kaspi.kz’s private equity investor was interested in commencing a formal exit via an IPO, but the valuation was an important consideration. The case also provides a unique insight into financial fragility of the retail banking model, and how integration into an e-commerce platform interacts with the retail banking model.
Keywords: Finance; Private Equity; Initial Public Offering; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Central Asia;

Citation:
Ivashina, Victoria, and Esel Çekin. "Kaspi.kz IPO." Harvard Business School Case 220-007, October 2019. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | October 2019
Hony Capital and Jushi Group
Josh Lerner, Shai Bernstein and Ann Leamon
Hony Capital, a multi-billion dollar private equity firm based in China, is investing in a subsidiary of Jushi Group, a Chinese company that is one of the world's largest fiberglass producers. The specific project will build a plant in the United States. In this case, students consider the value Hony can provide to Jushi, and must also determine how Hony will eventually exit the transaction, given the complexity around its structure.
Keywords: real estate; Investing; fundraising; manufacturing; Private Equity; Asset Management; Finance; Investment; Venture Capital; China; United States;

Citation:
Lerner, Josh, Shai Bernstein, and Ann Leamon. "Hony Capital and Jushi Group." Harvard Business School Case 820-040, October 2019. View Details
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