Finance

Finance is a featured research topic at Harvard Business School.

Our intellectual roots are based in a long line of scholars from Robert Merton whose collaborative work on risk management and option pricing won him the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1997, to John Lintner who co-created the Capital Asset Pricing Model and made significant contributions to dividend policy, and Gordon Donaldson whose work helped shape the field of corporate finance. We strive to understand how managers and firms make value-enhancing decisions; and how financial institutions, markets, and instruments contribute to this process. Our approach to research is distinguished by its unique combination of theory, empirical analysis, mathematical modeling, and field observations at companies.

Featured Works

Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2019
Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation, commonly assumed in New Keynesian models. We estimate that the correlation between inflation and the output gap switched from negative to positive in 2001. Higher inflation lowers real bond returns, and higher output raises stock returns, explaining why the bond-stock return correlation changed from positive to negative. In the model, risk premia amplify this change in bond-stock return comovement and are crucial for a quantitative explanation.
Keywords: consumption-based habit formation; consumption Euler equation; time-varying risk premia; inflation dynamics; bond-stock correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics;

Citation:
Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Harvard Business School Working Paper. (Revised May 2019. Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-031, September 2013) View Details
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Working Paper | 2016
Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News
Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on more favorable analysts experience more negative future earnings surprises and more future earnings restatements. A long-short portfolio that exploits this differential firm behavior earns abnormal returns of up to 149 basis points per month, or almost 18 percent per year. We find similar evidence in an international sample of earnings call transcripts from the UK, Canada, France, and Japan. Firms with higher discretionary accruals, firms that barely meet/exceed earnings expectations, and firms (and their executives) that are about to issue equity, sell shares, and exercise options, are all significantly more likely to cast their earnings calls.
Keywords: Information; Strategy; Ethics;

Citation:
Cohen, Lauren, Dong Lou, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News." Working Paper, October 2016. (Winner of 2014 Crowell Memorial Prize For the best paper on quantitative investing, PanAgora Asset Management, Inc. 2014.) View Details
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Article | American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings | May 2014
Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment
Shawn A. Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand, consistent with overinference from small samples. Second, spillovers also matter, in the sense that the recent payout experience of village co-residents affects insurance demand about as much as one's own recent payout experience. Third, the spillover effect decays as time passes while the effect of one's own experience does not. We discuss implications of this analysis for commercial sustainability of this complicated but promising risk management technology.

Citation:
Cole, Shawn A., Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 104, no. 5 (May 2014): 284–290. View Details
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Article | Review of Financial Studies | 2014
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.
Keywords: Performance Expectations; Investment Return;

Citation:
Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
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Article | Journal of Financial Economics | August 2014
Mortgage Convexity
Samuel G. Hanson
Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS duration function as large-scale shocks to the quantity of interest rate risk that must be borne by professional bond investors. I develop a simple model in which the risk tolerance of bond investors is limited in the short run, so these fluctuations in MBS duration generate significant variation in bond risk premia. Specifically, bond risk premia are high when aggregate MBS duration is high. The model offers an explanation for why long-term rates could appear to be excessively sensitive to movements in short rates and explains how changes in MBS duration act as a positive-feedback mechanism that amplifies interest rate volatility. I find strong support for these predictions in the time series of US government bond returns.
Keywords: Mortgages; Interest Rates; Volatility;

Citation:
Hanson, Samuel G. "Mortgage Convexity." Journal of Financial Economics 113, no. 2 (August 2014): 270–299. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
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Working Paper | 2014
Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a crowding out of corporate lending. For a given domestic firm, new debt is less likely to be a loan—i.e., the loan supply contracts—when local banks have purchased more domestic sovereign debt and when that debt is risky (as measured by CDS spreads). These effects are most pronounced in the period following the second Greek bailout in early 2010.
Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Greece;

Citation:
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Working Paper, April 2014. View Details
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Recent Publications

Case | HBS Case Collection | October 2019
Kaspi.kz IPO
Victoria Ivashina and Esel Çekin
This case follows Kaspi.kz, a private equity (Baring Vostok) co-owned retail bank in Central Asia that evolved into a fintech, payments and e-commerce company. It provides insights into private equity financing, portfolio company management, and initial public offering practices. In particular, the case focuses on (i) the bank’s journey from a traditional bank that serviced only corporations to an online platform, and (ii) the timing and process of preparation for an IPO. The management initially concentrated on profitability, but they soon shifted their emphasis to customer experience. The results were rewarding: Kaspi.kz became the number one player in online commerce, online payments, and consumer financing in Kazakhstan. The challenge of the IPO decisions is its timing: communicating the success of the fast transformation of the firm and its potential for further growth, especially in an emerging market like Kazakhstan, was far from trivial. From a business perspective, even a short delay of six months could potentially add millions of dollars to its value. Kaspi.kz’s private equity investor was interested in commencing a formal exit via an IPO, but the valuation was an important consideration. The case also provides a unique insight into financial fragility of the retail banking model, and how integration into an e-commerce platform interacts with the retail banking model.
Keywords: Finance; Private Equity; Initial Public Offering; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Central Asia;

Citation:
Ivashina, Victoria, and Esel Çekin. "Kaspi.kz IPO." Harvard Business School Case 220-007, October 2019. View Details
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Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2019
Undisclosed Debt Sustainability
Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
Over the past decade, non–Paris Club creditors, notably China, have become an important source of financing for low- and middle-income countries. In contrast with typical sovereign debt, these lending arrangements are not public, and other creditors have no information about their magnitude. We transform the traditional sovereign debt and default model to quantitatively study incomplete information arrangements and find they greatly reduce traditional/Paris Club creditors’ debt sustainability. Disclosure of nontraditional debt would imply significant welfare gains for the recipient countries but would reduce its sustainability. We discuss the implications of nontraditional lending on standard assumptions of sovereign debt models.
Keywords: Sovereign debt; transparency; sustainability; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Information; China;

Citation:
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Undisclosed Debt Sustainability." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-043, September 2019. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | October 2019
Hony Capital and Jushi Group
Josh Lerner, Shai Bernstein and Ann Leamon
Hony Capital, a multi-billion dollar private equity firm based in China, is investing in a subsidiary of Jushi Group, a Chinese company that is one of the world’s largest fiberglass producers. The specific project will build a plant in the United States. In this case, students consider the value Hony can provide to Jushi, and must also determine how Hony will eventually exit the transaction, given the complexity around its structure.
Keywords: real estate; Investing; fundraising; manufacturing; Private Equity; Asset Management; Finance; Investment; Venture Capital; China; United States;

Citation:
Lerner, Josh, Shai Bernstein, and Ann Leamon. "Hony Capital and Jushi Group." Harvard Business School Case 820-040, October 2019. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | August 2019 (Revised October 2019)
Amandla Capital: Real Estate in Côte d‘Ivoire
John D. Macomber, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Dilyana Botha
This case describes Amandla Capital, a fledgling company in Cote d’Ivoire, facing three opportunities in the real estate and hospitality industries in Africa. It introduces students to several concepts: decision-making and cost-benefit analysis in real estate, corporate strategy selection, management of stakeholders with varied needs and levels of sophistication, conflicts of interest, and the basics of hospitality and hotel management industries.
Keywords: Small Business; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cost vs Benefits; Finance; Assets; Asset Management; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Project Finance; Relationships;

Citation:
Macomber, John D., Pippa Tubman Armerding, and Dilyana Botha. "Amandla Capital: Real Estate in Côte d‘Ivoire." Harvard Business School Case 220-029, August 2019. (Revised October 2019.) View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | August 2019
ClearScore, 2018
John R. Wells and Benjamin Weinstock
In October 2017, Experian, one of the “Big Three” consumer credit reporting agencies in the United Kingdom made an offer to acquire ClearScore for a total consideration of £293 million. Founded by Justin Basini, Dan Cobley, and Nigel Morris in 2014, ClearScore was the UK’s first company to offer consumers full credit reports and scores for free. ClearScore had accumulated over 5 million customers since its launch on July 15, 2015, and was growing rapidly. In the final quarter of 2017, it was set to reach break-even and deliver £27 million in revenues for the year. Was this the time to sell?
Keywords: fintech; financial services; credit card; credit scores; Startup; start-up; Startup financing; startup marketing; ＂marketing analytics＂; regulation; lending; television advertising; entrepreneur; Entrepreneurial mindset; entrepreneurial ventures; entrepreneurs; global business; rapid growth stage; risk; net present value; testing; Testing strategy; geographies; Mergers ＆ Acquisitions; Finance; Strategy; Credit; Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Expansion; Mergers and Acquisitions; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom; South Africa;

Citation:
Wells, John R., and Benjamin Weinstock. "ClearScore, 2018." Harvard Business School Case 720-369, August 2019. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | August 2019
Legrand's Acquisition of Milestone
C. Fritz Foley and F. Katelynn Boland
In June 2017, Legrand, a global specialist in electrical and digital building infrastructure which was a serial acquirer, announced it had signed an agreement to buy Milestone AV Technologies, a leading designer and manufacturer of branded audio-video products. This case describes Legrand's approach to screening, pursuing, and integrating targets as well as the criteria used to evaluate if a deal is successful.
Keywords: Mergers ＆ Acquisitions; acquisition strategy; Mergers and Acquisitions; Management; Strategy; Corporate Finance; Electronics Industry; Europe; United States;

Citation:
Foley, C. Fritz, and F. Katelynn Boland. "Legrand's Acquisition of Milestone." Harvard Business School Case 220-028, August 2019. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | July 2019
Lovango Cay: Developing a Boutique Resort in the U.S. Virgin Islands
Charles F. Wu, Levi Abramson, Anne Jacobs and Briana Richardson
Keywords: Finance; Real Estate Industry;

Citation:
Wu, Charles F., Levi Abramson, Anne Jacobs, and Briana Richardson. "Lovango Cay: Developing a Boutique Resort in the U.S. Virgin Islands." Harvard Business School Case 220-008, July 2019. View Details
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Other Unpublished Work | 2019
Mexico's Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico
Laura Alfaro, Augusto de la Torre, Guillermo Calvo, Roque Benjamin Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Paulo Leme, Enrique Mendoza, Guillermo Perry, Carmen Reinhart and Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Keywords: financial risk; Finance; Economics; Mexico; Latin America;

Citation:
Alfaro, Laura, Augusto de la Torre, Guillermo Calvo, Roque Benjamin Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Paulo Leme, Enrique Mendoza, Guillermo Perry, Carmen Reinhart, and Liliana Rojas-Suarez. "Mexico's Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico." Comité Latinoamericano de Asuntos Financieros (CLAAF) Statement, no. 41, July 2019. View Details
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Article | IMF Economic Review | June 2019
Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation
Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. We revisit sovereign debt sustainability under the assumptions that countries can accumulate reserves and borrow internationally using their own currency. As opposed to traditional sovereign-debt models, asset-valuation effects occasioned by currency fluctuations act to absorb global shocks and render consumption smoother. Countries do not accumulate reserves to be depleted in “bad” times. Instead, issuing domestic debt while accumulating reserves acts as a hedge against external shocks. A quantitative exercise of the Brazilian economy suggests this strategy to be effective for smoothing consumption and reducing the occurrence of default.
Keywords: Sovereign debt; local-currency bonds; foreign reserves; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Financial Markets; Developing Countries and Economies;

Citation:
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation." IMF Economic Review 67, no. 2 (June 2019): 261–287. (Also NBER Working Paper No. 19098.) View Details
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Article | American Economic Review: Insights | June 2019
Debt Traps? Market Vendors and Moneylender Debt in India and the Philippines
Dean Karlan, Sendhil Mullainathan and Benjamin Roth
A debt trap occurs when someone takes on a high-interest rate loan and is barely able to pay back the interest, and thus perpetually finds themselves in debt (often by refinancing). Studying such practices is important for understanding financial decision-making of households in dire circumstances as well as for setting appropriate consumer protection policies. We conduct a simple experiment in three sites in which we paid off high-interest moneylender debt of individuals. Most borrowers returned to debt within six weeks. One to two years after intervention, treatment individuals were borrowing at the same rate as control households.
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Household; Personal Finance; Decision Making; Behavior; India; Philippines;

Citation:
Karlan, Dean, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Benjamin Roth. "Debt Traps? Market Vendors and Moneylender Debt in India and the Philippines." American Economic Review: Insights 1, no. 1 (June 2019): 27–42. View Details
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