Finance

Finance is a featured research topic at Harvard Business School.

Our intellectual roots are based in a long line of scholars from Robert Merton whose collaborative work on risk management and option pricing won him the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1997, to John Lintner who co-created the Capital Asset Pricing Model and made significant contributions to dividend policy, and Gordon Donaldson whose work helped shape the field of corporate finance. We strive to understand how managers and firms make value-enhancing decisions; and how financial institutions, markets, and instruments contribute to this process. Our approach to research is distinguished by its unique combination of theory, empirical analysis, mathematical modeling, and field observations at companies.

Featured Works

Working Paper | 2016
Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News
Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on more favorable analysts experience more negative future earnings surprises and more future earnings restatements. A long-short portfolio that exploits this differential firm behavior earns abnormal returns of up to 149 basis points per month, or almost 18 percent per year. We find similar evidence in an international sample of earnings call transcripts from the UK, Canada, France, and Japan. Firms with higher discretionary accruals, firms that barely meet/exceed earnings expectations, and firms (and their executives) that are about to issue equity, sell shares, and exercise options, are all significantly more likely to cast their earnings calls.
Keywords: Information; Strategy; Ethics;

Citation:
Cohen, Lauren, Dong Lou, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News." Working Paper, October 2016. (Winner of 2014 Crowell Memorial Prize For the best paper on quantitative investing, PanAgora Asset Management, Inc. 2014.) View Details
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Article | American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings | May 2014
Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment
Shawn A. Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand, consistent with overinference from small samples. Second, spillovers also matter, in the sense that the recent payout experience of village co-residents affects insurance demand about as much as one's own recent payout experience. Third, the spillover effect decays as time passes while the effect of one's own experience does not. We discuss implications of this analysis for commercial sustainability of this complicated but promising risk management technology.

Citation:
Cole, Shawn A., Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 104, no. 5 (May 2014): 284–290. View Details
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Article | Review of Financial Studies | 2014
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.
Keywords: Performance Expectations; Investment Return;

Citation:
Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
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Article | Journal of Financial Economics | August 2014
Mortgage Convexity
Samuel G. Hanson
Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS duration function as large-scale shocks to the quantity of interest rate risk that must be borne by professional bond investors. I develop a simple model in which the risk tolerance of bond investors is limited in the short run, so these fluctuations in MBS duration generate significant variation in bond risk premia. Specifically, bond risk premia are high when aggregate MBS duration is high. The model offers an explanation for why long-term rates could appear to be excessively sensitive to movements in short rates and explains how changes in MBS duration act as a positive-feedback mechanism that amplifies interest rate volatility. I find strong support for these predictions in the time series of US government bond returns.
Keywords: Mortgages; Interest Rates; Volatility;

Citation:
Hanson, Samuel G. "Mortgage Convexity." Journal of Financial Economics 113, no. 2 (August 2014): 270–299. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
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Working Paper | 2014
Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a crowding out of corporate lending. For a given domestic firm, new debt is less likely to be a loan—i.e., the loan supply contracts—when local banks have purchased more domestic sovereign debt and when that debt is risky (as measured by CDS spreads). These effects are most pronounced in the period following the second Greek bailout in early 2010.
Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Greece;

Citation:
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Working Paper, April 2014. View Details
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Recent Publications

Case | HBS Case Collection | June 2020
Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)
Jonas Heese, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos and Julia Kelley
In March 2020, as coronavirus reduced demand for air travel, an analyst was forecasting American Airlines’ (American’s) first quarter financial results. To develop a forecast, she needed to familiarize herself with Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-02, “Leases (Topic 842),” passed four years earlier by the Financial Accounting Standards Board. ASU 2016-02 required companies to disclose all leases on their balance sheets, but it made an exception for leases with variable payments, allowing companies to leave such leases off-balance sheet. The Wall Street Journal estimated that more than 50% of American’s leases remained off-balance sheet due to the exclusion of variable leases. Should American and other companies be allowed to leave variable lease payments off-balance sheet? How did the decision to leave these payments off-balance sheet affect companies’ risk profiles and valuations?
Keywords: Accounting; Financial Reporting; Financial Statements; Finance; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governing and Advisory Boards; Leasing; Accounting Industry; Air Transportation Industry; North and Central America; United States;

Citation:
Heese, Jonas, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos, and Julia Kelley. "Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)." Harvard Business School Case 120-069, June 2020. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | June 2020
Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (B)
Jonas Heese, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos and Julia Kelley
This is a supplement to the Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A) case. The (B) case describes American Airlines’ financial results for the first quarter of 2020, as well as the continuing effects of coronavirus on the airline industry.
Keywords: Accounting; Financial Reporting; Financial Statements; Finance; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governing and Advisory Boards; Health Pandemics; Accounting Industry; Air Transportation Industry; North and Central America; United States;

Citation:
Heese, Jonas, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos, and Julia Kelley. "Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (B)." Harvard Business School Case 120-113, June 2020. View Details
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Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2020
The Rise of the Investor State: State Capital in the Chinese Economy
Hao Chen and Meg Rithmire
The nature and extent of the role of the Chinese state in the economy is fundamental to many empirical and theoretical debates about that country’s political economy. We document and explain the rise of a novel form of intervention on the part of the Chinese state: the expansion of state capital beyond ownership of state firms. We argue that state investment as a mode of state intervention in the economy is conceptually distinct from both “state capitalism” and the “developmental state” in its introduction of new agents to distribute state capital to firms and new mechanisms through which states, especially authoritarian ones, monitor and influence business actors. We document the growth of the investor state in several ways. Case studies of three high-profile shareholding firms in China demonstrate that state capital can be deployed strategically, for example to respond to financial crisis or facilitate industrial upgrading, but also generates moral hazard, resulting in corruption and resource misallocation, and international alarm about the intentions of Chinese firms. We further compare the rise of state shareholding firms in China to similar phenomena in Brazil and Malaysia, concluding that the practice has both economic and political logics.
Keywords: China's political economy; state shareholding; state-business relations; State capitalism; China's financial system; Economy; Business and Government Relations; Finance; System; China;

Citation:
Chen, Hao, and Meg Rithmire. "The Rise of the Investor State: State Capital in the Chinese Economy." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-120, May 2020. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | May 2020
Soofa: Displaying the Right Path?
Jeffrey J. Bussgang, Amy Klopfenstein and Amram Migdal
In November 2019, Sandra Richter, co-founder and CEO of Soofa, a network of advertising-supported digital bulletin boards, must decide between two different fundraising and expansion plans for her company. One plan entails raising $15 million in a Series A round and pursuing an aggressive expansion strategy, while the other represents a more modest $3 million raise to bring the company to operating profitability. Richter had developed the $15 million plan with an executive introduced to her by her venture capital board members with extensive fundraising and startup experience; however, after months of pitching to investors, the aggressive expansion plan had failed to produce a term sheet. Richter must decide whether the rapid expansion is the right course of action for the company as she begins to question whether her business could realistically meet the plan’s projections even if she could secure the financing to fund it. Meanwhile, Soofa’s capital was rapidly dwindling. Richter must raise another round of capital by early 2020, or will be forced to lay off the majority of her staff and close her operations. Should she continue pursuing the aggressive expansion plan, pivot to the more modest plan based on operating profitability, or attempt to pursue both plans simultaneously? And how should she navigate the growing tension on her board given the company’s struggles?
Keywords: Business Ventures; Business Model; Business Plan; Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Decision Making; Decisions; Ethics; Geography; Geopolitical Units; Finance; Investment; Markets; Market Entry and Exit; Demand and Consumers; Network Effects; Media; Society; Urban Development; Sustainable Cities; Technology; Hardware; Technology Platform; Strategy; Business Strategy; Expansion; Relationships; Partners and Partnerships; Capital; Venture Capital; Advertising Industry; Technology Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; North and Central America; United States; Massachusetts; Cambridge;

Citation:
Bussgang, Jeffrey J., Amy Klopfenstein, and Amram Migdal. "Soofa: Displaying the Right Path?" Harvard Business School Case 820-098, May 2020. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | May 2020 (Revised June 2020)
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)
Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin
In early 2020, a coronavirus pandemic swept the globe, ushering in unprecedented disruptions to the global economy. Both supply and demand were decimated by lockdowns and border closings, as well as reduced spending by fearful consumers. In response, governments around the world made equally unprecedented policy moves, spending trillions of dollars on fiscal stimulus measures to bridge the gap during the self-imposed shutdown. As the pandemic progressed, governments had to weigh the costs between loss of life due to opening up their economies and the economic devastation caused by delaying a reopening.
Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Supply and Industry; Finance; Central Banking; Financial Markets; International Finance; Globalization; Government and Politics; Health Pandemics; Decision Making; Macroeconomics; Employment; Crisis Management; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Air Transportation Industry; Banking Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Employment Industry; Financial Services Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Health Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; Public Administration Industry; Retail Industry; Service Industry; Shipping Industry; Tourism Industry; Travel Industry; Asia; China; Europe; Latin America; Africa; United States;

Citation:
Cavallo, Alberto, and Christian Godwin. "The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)." Harvard Business School Case 720-031, May 2020. (Revised June 2020.) View Details
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Article | Journal of Financial Economics | May 2020
The Creation and Evolution of Entrepreneurial Public Markets
Shai Bernstein, Abhishek Dev and Josh Lerner
This paper explores the creation and evolution of new stock exchanges around the world geared towards entrepreneurial companies, known as second-tier exchanges. Using hand-collected novel data, we document the proliferation of these new stock exchanges that were created in a large number of countries, attracted a significant volume of global IPOs, were introduced fairly cyclically, and had lower listing requirements when compared to first-tier stock exchanges. We find that increases in demand for entrepreneurial capital—as proxied for by patenting, IPOs, and stock market valuations—led to a higher likelihood of the introduction of second-tier exchanges. We find no evidence that new second-tier exchanges diverted the existing flow of IPOs from established stock exchanges. Shareholder protection strongly predicted exchange success, even in countries with high levels of venture capital activity, patenting, and financial market development. Second-tier exchanges in countries with better shareholder protection allowed younger, less profitable, but faster-growing companies to raise more capital. These results highlight the importance of institutions in enabling the provision of entrepreneurial capital to young companies.
Keywords: entrepreneurial finance; stock exchanges; Entrepreneurship; Finance; Initial Public Offering; Capital;

Citation:
Bernstein, Shai, Abhishek Dev, and Josh Lerner. "The Creation and Evolution of Entrepreneurial Public Markets." Journal of Financial Economics 136, no. 2 (May 2020): 307–329. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | April 2020 (Revised June 2020)
SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access
Matthew C. Weinzierl, Kylie Lucas and Mehak Sarang
From the time he transformed the world of online banking, Elon Musk established himself as a bold innovator. After selling X.com to PayPal in 2002, he founded a series of revolutionary start-ups, starting with Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Hoping to "make human life multiplanetary", Musk aimed to establish the first Mars civilization, but was unable to procure rockets that would be cheap or reliable enough to make the journey. Over the course of the next decade, SpaceX developed a line of revolutionary rockets that transformed the commercial space launch industry. Using reusable rockets to exploit the benefits of economies of scale, SpaceX cut costs to orbit by a factor of 18 and captured a large percentage of the global launch market, once thought to be inaccessible to newcomers in the industry. But after a remarkable decade, Musk's original goal to reach Mars seemed both within reach and impossibly optimistic. SpaceX developed technologies that would be critical in supporting a crewed mission to Mars, but the cost to get there was estimated to be well above $200 billion dollars in 2014, nowhere near revenues from the launch services market. Would there be enough demand for launch services to make Elon Musk's vision a possibility, or would SpaceX have to find other ways to get there?
Keywords: space tech; space access; vision; Economies of Scale; Technological Innovation; Emerging Markets; Commercialization; Finance; Aerospace Industry;

Citation:
Weinzierl, Matthew C., Kylie Lucas, and Mehak Sarang. "SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access." Harvard Business School Case 720-027, April 2020. (Revised June 2020.) View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | April 2020 (Revised June 2020)
Ping An: Pioneering the New Model of ‘Technology-driven Finance’
Feng Zhu, Anthony K. Woo and Nancy Hua Dai
In mid-December 2018, Peter Ma, Chairman and CEO of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. was considering whether the company should grow a fifth ecosystem of Smart City Services. Established in 1988, Ping An was one of the top 10 global financial institutions in terms of market capitalization with 342, 550 employees and nearly 1.4 million sales agents. Under Ma's leadership, Ping An was transforming from a traditional financial institution to a leading global technology-powered personal financial services group. In recent years it executed a strategy of "Finance+Ecosystem" by leveraging three frontier technologies-AI, blockchain, and cloud technology-to develop four ecosystems: Financial Services, Healthcare, Automobile Services and Real Estate Services. Smart City Services, with its business potential and social impact, had become an attractive new opportunity for Ping An to leverage its technology expertise and business experience while gaining new traffic for the other four ecosystems. Ma wondered: How important would this new ecosystem be strategically for the future of Ping An? If Ping An decided to go after this market, how should Ping An differentiate itself from competitors?
Keywords: business ecosystems; fintech; Finance; Technology; Business Model; Expansion; Competitive Strategy; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry;

Citation:
Zhu, Feng, Anthony K. Woo, and Nancy Hua Dai. "Ping An: Pioneering the New Model of ‘Technology-driven Finance’." Harvard Business School Case 620-068, April 2020. (Revised June 2020.) View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | March 2020 (Revised May 2020)
Generation Investment Management
Vikram S. Gandhi and Sarah Mehta
By January 2020, sustainable investment firm Generation Investment Management (Generation), founded in London in 2004, had grown from a shared vision among seven founders to a 90-person firm managing $27 billion in public and private equity. Throughout its history, Generation had worked towards its mission of seeking to generate superior financial returns by investing in sustainable companies that created long-term value. The case examines Generation’s investment process in general, and in particular with respect to a global manufacturer of agricultural equipment. It also examines some of the strategic decisions and challenges facing the firm.
Keywords: sustainable investing; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Finance; Equity; Governance; Private Equity; Public Equity; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Investment Activism; Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Institutional Investing; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom; England; London;

Citation:
Gandhi, Vikram S., and Sarah Mehta. "Generation Investment Management." Harvard Business School Case 820-033, March 2020. (Revised May 2020.) View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | March 2020
A Tower for the People: 425 Park Avenue
John Macomber, Joseph G. Allen and Emily Jones
Healthy buildings and superior air quality are increasingly important since people now spend so much time indoors. Indoor spaces drive performance and productivity. Commercial real estate landlords and investors are responding to the demands of sophisticated tenants and end users by making investment choices around indoor air quality and certification, and related expectations for increased rent or increased occupancy. It's anticipated that these learnings will extend to other situations including offices, schools, hospitals, factories, and homes. This case investigates the tradeoffs in several engineering, marketing, and finance decisions. The setting is a billion dollar premier new office building on Park Avenue in New York City, designed by the eminent architecture firm Foster + Partners. The decision factors in the case include health information from CogFX and 9 Foundations of Healthy Buildings research from the T.H. Chan Harvard School of Public Health.
Keywords: health and wellness; real estate; sustainability; Health; Pollution; Buildings and Facilities; Performance Productivity; Finance; Real Estate Industry; New York (city, NY);

Citation:
Macomber, John, Joseph G. Allen, and Emily Jones. "A Tower for the People: 425 Park Avenue." Harvard Business School Case 220-065, March 2020. View Details
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