Finance

Finance is a featured research topic at Harvard Business School.

Our intellectual roots are based in a long line of scholars from Robert Merton whose collaborative work on risk management and option pricing won him the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1997, to John Lintner who co-created the Capital Asset Pricing Model and made significant contributions to dividend policy, and Gordon Donaldson whose work helped shape the field of corporate finance. We strive to understand how managers and firms make value-enhancing decisions; and how financial institutions, markets, and instruments contribute to this process. Our approach to research is distinguished by its unique combination of theory, empirical analysis, mathematical modeling, and field observations at companies.

Featured Works

Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2019
Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation, commonly assumed in New Keynesian models. We estimate that the correlation between inflation and the output gap switched from negative to positive in 2001. Higher inflation lowers real bond returns, and higher output raises stock returns, explaining why the bond-stock return correlation changed from positive to negative. In the model, risk premia amplify this change in bond-stock return comovement and are crucial for a quantitative explanation.
Keywords: consumption-based habit formation; consumption Euler equation; time-varying risk premia; inflation dynamics; bond-stock correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics;

Citation:
Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-031, September 2013. (Revised May 2019.) View Details
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Working Paper | 2016
Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News
Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on more favorable analysts experience more negative future earnings surprises and more future earnings restatements. A long-short portfolio that exploits this differential firm behavior earns abnormal returns of up to 149 basis points per month, or almost 18 percent per year. We find similar evidence in an international sample of earnings call transcripts from the UK, Canada, France, and Japan. Firms with higher discretionary accruals, firms that barely meet/exceed earnings expectations, and firms (and their executives) that are about to issue equity, sell shares, and exercise options, are all significantly more likely to cast their earnings calls.
Keywords: Information; Strategy; Ethics;

Citation:
Cohen, Lauren, Dong Lou, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News." Working Paper, October 2016. (Winner of 2014 Crowell Memorial Prize For the best paper on quantitative investing, PanAgora Asset Management, Inc. 2014.) View Details
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Article | American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings | May 2014
Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment
Shawn A. Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand, consistent with overinference from small samples. Second, spillovers also matter, in the sense that the recent payout experience of village co-residents affects insurance demand about as much as one's own recent payout experience. Third, the spillover effect decays as time passes while the effect of one's own experience does not. We discuss implications of this analysis for commercial sustainability of this complicated but promising risk management technology.

Citation:
Cole, Shawn A., Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 104, no. 5 (May 2014): 284–290. View Details
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Article | Review of Financial Studies | 2014
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.
Keywords: Performance Expectations; Investment Return;

Citation:
Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
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Article | Journal of Financial Economics | August 2014
Mortgage Convexity
Samuel G. Hanson
Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS duration function as large-scale shocks to the quantity of interest rate risk that must be borne by professional bond investors. I develop a simple model in which the risk tolerance of bond investors is limited in the short run, so these fluctuations in MBS duration generate significant variation in bond risk premia. Specifically, bond risk premia are high when aggregate MBS duration is high. The model offers an explanation for why long-term rates could appear to be excessively sensitive to movements in short rates and explains how changes in MBS duration act as a positive-feedback mechanism that amplifies interest rate volatility. I find strong support for these predictions in the time series of US government bond returns.
Keywords: Mortgages; Interest Rates; Volatility;

Citation:
Hanson, Samuel G. "Mortgage Convexity." Journal of Financial Economics 113, no. 2 (August 2014): 270–299. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
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Working Paper | 2014
Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a crowding out of corporate lending. For a given domestic firm, new debt is less likely to be a loan—i.e., the loan supply contracts—when local banks have purchased more domestic sovereign debt and when that debt is risky (as measured by CDS spreads). These effects are most pronounced in the period following the second Greek bailout in early 2010.
Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Greece;

Citation:
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Working Paper, April 2014. View Details
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Recent Publications

Other Unpublished Work | 2019
Mexico's Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico
Laura Alfaro
Keywords: financial risk; Finance; Economics; Mexico; Latin America;

Citation:
Alfaro, Laura. "Mexico's Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico." Comité Latinoamericano de Asuntos Financieros (CLAAF) Statement, no. 41, Washington, DC, July 2019. View Details
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Article | IMF Economic Review | June 2019
Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation
Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. We revisit sovereign debt sustainability under the assumptions that countries can accumulate reserves and borrow internationally using their own currency. As opposed to traditional sovereign-debt models, asset-valuation effects occasioned by currency fluctuations act to absorb global shocks and render consumption smoother. Countries do not accumulate reserves to be depleted in “bad” times. Instead, issuing domestic debt while accumulating reserves acts as a hedge against external shocks. A quantitative exercise of the Brazilian economy suggests this strategy to be effective for smoothing consumption and reducing the occurrence of default.
Keywords: Sovereign debt; local-currency bonds; foreign reserves; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Financial Markets; Developing Countries and Economies;

Citation:
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation." IMF Economic Review 67, no. 2 (June 2019): 261–287. (Also NBER Working Paper No. 19098.) View Details
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Article | American Economic Review: Insights | June 2019
Debt Traps? Market Vendors and Moneylender Debt in India and the Philippines
Dean Karlan, Sendhil Mullainathan and Benjamin Roth
A debt trap occurs when someone takes on a high-interest rate loan and is barely able to pay back the interest, and thus perpetually finds themselves in debt (often by refinancing). Studying such practices is important for understanding financial decision-making of households in dire circumstances as well as for setting appropriate consumer protection policies. We conduct a simple experiment in three sites in which we paid off high-interest moneylender debt of individuals. Most borrowers returned to debt within six weeks. One to two years after intervention, treatment individuals were borrowing at the same rate as control households.
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Household; Personal Finance; Decision Making; Behavior; India; Philippines;

Citation:
Karlan, Dean, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Benjamin Roth. "Debt Traps? Market Vendors and Moneylender Debt in India and the Philippines." American Economic Review: Insights 1, no. 1 (June 2019): 27–42. View Details
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Working Paper | 2019
Second Chance: Life Without Student Debt
Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao
Rising student debt is considered one of the creeping threats of our time. This paper examines the effect of student debt relief on individual credit and labor market outcomes. We exploit the plausibly random debt discharge due to the inability of National Collegiate, the largest owner of private student loan debt, to prove chain of title for thousands of loans across the United States. Using hand-collected lawsuits filings matched with individual credit bureau information, we find that borrowers experiencing the debt relief shock reduce their indebtedness by 26%, by both reducing their demand for credit and limiting the use of existing credit accounts. They are also 12% less likely to default on other accounts. After the discharge, the borrowers' geographical mobility increases as well as their probability to change jobs. Ultimately their income increases by more than $4,000 over a three-year period, which is equivalent to about two months' average salary. These findings speak to the benefits of intervening in the student loan market to reduce the consequences of debt overhang problems by forgiving student debts.
Keywords: student loans; debt relief; Borrowing and Debt; Personal Finance; Outcome or Result; United States;

Citation:
Di Maggio, Marco, Ankit Kalda, and Vincent Yao. "Second Chance: Life Without Student Debt." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25810, May 2019. View Details
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Working Paper | 2018
It is Easy to be Brave From a Safe Distance: Proximity to the SEC and Insider Trading
Trung Nguyen and Quoc H. Nguyen
We use hand-collected data from SEC’s litigation releases for insider trading violations to examine the effect of geographic distance on its enforcement activities and insider trading activities. First, we find that the SEC is more likely to investigate companies that are closer to its offices. Second, we find that illegal insider trading increases with a company’s distance from an SEC office. Lastly, we utilize the closure of SEC offices as exogenous shocks to geographic proximity and find that insider trading at nearby companies increase significantly compared with trading at otherwise similar companies not affected by the closures.
Keywords: SEC; enforcement; Financial Misconduct; insider trading; geographic proximity; Governance Compliance; Law Enforcement; Geographic Location; Finance; Crime and Corruption;

Citation:
Nguyen, Trung, and Quoc H. Nguyen. "It is Easy to be Brave From a Safe Distance: Proximity to the SEC and Insider Trading." Working Paper. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | February 2019 (Revised March 2019)
Banorte and the Capital Call Facility: Infrastructure Finance in Mexico
John D. Macomber, Carla Larangeira and Fernanda Miguel
As a result of Mexico´s pension industry deregulation, pension funds were able to invest in energy and infrastructure projects through a variety of financial instruments, particularly through Capital Development Certificates (CKDs), an asset class that served as a vehicle for investing in unlisted companies. By the end of 2017, pension funds had invested more than $16 billion in infrastructure, with CKDs as the primary investment vehicle for this sector. Motivated by increased domestic liquidity and opportunities for investment, Rodrigo Jair launched Jair Infrastructure Investments, a specialized fund with the majority of its capital raised from pension funds. Jair was approached by Felipe Duarte, head of Banorte´s Infrastructure and Energy Group, who offered him a short-term credit line to increase the fund´s liquidity during its investment phase. Jair had to decide whether he should deploy this line or rely exclusively on capital calls from his investors to fund his pipeline. Was it worth paying the commitment fees to achieve increased liquidity? What risks should he consider when making this decision? What are the upsides and downsides of relying on equity or debt for a fund like Jair Infrastructure Investments? Will techniques like this bring significantly more capital into infrastructure investing?
Keywords: financial products; fund management; capital call facility; pension funds; Infrastructure; Energy; Finance; Decision Making; Investment Funds; Financial Instruments; North America; Mexico;

Citation:
Macomber, John D., Carla Larangeira, and Fernanda Miguel. "Banorte and the Capital Call Facility: Infrastructure Finance in Mexico." Harvard Business School Case 219-049, February 2019. (Revised March 2019.) View Details
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Article | Journal of Political Economy | February 2019
The Market for Financial Adviser Misconduct
Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru
We construct a novel database containing the universe of financial advisers in the United States from 2005 to 2015, representing approximately 10% of employment of the finance and insurance sector. We provide the first large-scale study that documents the economy-wide extent of misconduct among financial advisers and the associated labor market consequences of misconduct. Seven percent of advisers have misconduct records, and this share reaches more than 15% at some of the largest advisory firms. Roughly one-third of advisers with misconduct are repeat offenders. Prior offenders are five times as likely to engage in new misconduct as the average financial adviser. Firms discipline misconduct—approximately half of financial advisers lose their jobs after misconduct. The labor market partially undoes firm-level discipline by rehiring such advisers. Firms that hire these advisers also have higher rates of prior misconduct themselves, suggesting "matching on misconduct." These firms are less desirable and offer lower compensation. We argue that heterogeneity in consumer sophistication could explain the prevalence and persistence of misconduct at such firms. Misconduct is concentrated at firms with retail customers and in counties with low education, elderly populations, and high incomes. Our findings are consistent with some firms "specializing" in misconduct and catering to unsophisticated consumers, while others use their clean reputation to attract sophisticated consumers.
Keywords: Financial Advisors; Brokers; consumer finance; Financial Misconduct and Fraud; FINRA; Financial Institutions; Crime and Corruption; Organizational Culture; Personal Finance; Financial Services Industry;

Citation:
Egan, Mark, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru. "The Market for Financial Adviser Misconduct." Journal of Political Economy 127, no. 1 (February 2019): 233–295. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | January 2019
CrossBoundary Energy
John Macomber
Almost 500 million people are without electricity in sub-Saharan Africa. Governments and public utilities are challenged to bring generation and distribution to most of them. Considerable promise exists in “off-grid” or “mini-grid” technologies, notably using renewable energy from wind and photovoltaics in areas that have plentiful supplies of both yet limited access to traditional fuels due to other infrastructure constraints. Cross-Boundary is an experienced consulting firm and transaction facilitator run by several Harvard and Stanford MBAs, some with recent military experience.
In the case, the company needs to analyze and select which of two nations in Africa to enter next (Tanzania or Ghana) based on many aspects of each nation, has to decide which kinds of customers to serve who will compensate it directly for electricity, and whether to partner with developers and contractors or build that capability in-house.
Critically, the company has to evaluate as it matures whether it should be a) an aggregator of capital from multiple investing and lending sources, investing in a vendor agnostic manner into multiple energy developers and projects which it identifies from afar; or b), whether to be primarily a large scale multi-national competitive energy developer and project delivery company needing to attract capital from many sources, all of whom are selecting between several other developers and investment opportunities. What is their key value added and where can they build a defensible strategy? Which one best accomplishes the goal of matching up money and projects to help illuminate Africa?
Keywords: energy investing; economic development; Renewable Energy; Business Growth and Maturation; Developing Countries and Economies; Project Finance; Emerging Markets; Industry Structures; Infrastructure; Segmentation; Private Equity; Decision Choices and Conditions; Energy Industry; Utilities Industry; Africa; Tanzania; Ghana;

Citation:
Macomber, John. "CrossBoundary Energy." Harvard Business School Case 219-089, January 2019. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | January 2019
Ajeej Capital: Investing in Emerging Markets
Luis M. Viceira and Eren Kuzucu
In October 2007, Tarek Sakka and Fouad Dajani launched Ajeej Capital, the first independent investment advisory in the MENA region. Fittingly named ajeej, an Arabic word that translates to “growth and propagation in a chaotic setting,” the firm’s AUM grew from $20 million to $1 billion before its 10th anniversary despite a deep-cutting global financial crisis, market turmoil driven by the Arab Spring, and years of weak oil prices. Leveraging deep local knowledge, strong relations in the region, and a “PE investment approach in public equity markets,” Ajeej had outperformed its benchmark regional stock indices and attracted investing capital from large institutional investors around the world.

The case follows the investment methodology of Ajeej Capital’s investment fund, the Ajeej MENA Fund, through the turmoil of Ajeej’s first decade. The case then focuses in on September 2016, with Sakka and Dajani facing a historic hurdle: Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region, had just announced their first ever public-sector pay cuts, triggered by the Vision 2030 agenda. Ajeej, with 50% of its portfolio invested in Saudi companies, had to decide how to position its investment portfolio to successfully navigate a period of structural change in the region.
Keywords: Security Selection; Investments; Growth; culture; UAE; Finance; Asset Management; Emerging Markets; Capital Markets; Investment; Growth Management; Risk Management; Middle East; Saudi Arabia; Dubai; United Arab Emirates; Egypt; North Africa;

Citation:
Viceira, Luis M., and Eren Kuzucu. "Ajeej Capital: Investing in Emerging Markets." Harvard Business School Case 219-029, January 2019. View Details
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Case | HBS Case Collection | January 2019 (Revised March 2019)
Ribbon Home: iBacking for Real Estate
Marco Di Maggio and Sarah Gulick
In November 2018, Shaival Shah, the founder and CEO of Ribbon Home had to decide on the next steps for the company. Ribbon had introduced a program that backs consumers with cash offers without creating a loan structure in order to help them compete with iBuyers, such as Zillow Offers and Opendoor. Ribbon had experienced a successful launch in Charlotte, North Carolina which prompted urgent strategic questions. Among them was the appropriate funding model – whether Ribbon be mainly a platform for others to fund transactions, or should it buy and hold homes on its balance sheet, which it could securitize and sell using a line of credit.
Keywords: consumers; real estate; Property; Finance; Market Platforms; Business Model; Decision Making; Real Estate Industry; Technology Industry;

Citation:
Di Maggio, Marco, and Sarah Gulick. "Ribbon Home: iBacking for Real Estate." Harvard Business School Case 219-059, January 2019. (Revised March 2019.) View Details
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