Finance

Finance is a featured research topic at Harvard Business School.

Our intellectual roots are based in a long line of scholars from Robert Merton whose collaborative work on risk management and option pricing won him the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1997, to John Lintner who co-created the Capital Asset Pricing Model and made significant contributions to dividend policy, and Gordon Donaldson whose work helped shape the field of corporate finance. We strive to understand how managers and firms make value-enhancing decisions; and how financial institutions, markets, and instruments contribute to this process. Our approach to research is distinguished by its unique combination of theory, empirical analysis, mathematical modeling, and field observations at companies.

Featured Works

Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2018
Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Our new model of consumption-based habit formation preferences generates loglinear, homoscedastic macroeconomic dynamics and time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free interest rate takes the form of an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation, commonly assumed in New Keynesian models. Estimating the model separately for 1979–2001 and 2001–2011 explains why the exposure of U.S. Treasury bonds to the stock market changed from positive to negative. A change in the comovement between inflation and the output gap explains changing bond risks but only when risk premia change endogenously as predicted by the model.
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Central Banking; System Shocks; Policy; Macroeconomics;

Citation:
Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-031, September 2013. (Revised August 2018.) View Details
Cite View Details SSRN Read Now Related
Working Paper | 2016
Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News
Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on more favorable analysts experience more negative future earnings surprises and more future earnings restatements. A long-short portfolio that exploits this differential firm behavior earns abnormal returns of up to 149 basis points per month, or almost 18 percent per year. We find similar evidence in an international sample of earnings call transcripts from the UK, Canada, France, and Japan. Firms with higher discretionary accruals, firms that barely meet/exceed earnings expectations, and firms (and their executives) that are about to issue equity, sell shares, and exercise options, are all significantly more likely to cast their earnings calls.
Keywords: Information; Strategy; Ethics;

Citation:
Cohen, Lauren, Dong Lou, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News." Working Paper, October 2016. (Winner of 2014 Crowell Memorial Prize For the best paper on quantitative investing, PanAgora Asset Management, Inc. 2014.) View Details
Cite View Details SSRN Related
Article | American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings | May 2014
Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment
Shawn A. Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand, consistent with overinference from small samples. Second, spillovers also matter, in the sense that the recent payout experience of village co-residents affects insurance demand about as much as one's own recent payout experience. Third, the spillover effect decays as time passes while the effect of one's own experience does not. We discuss implications of this analysis for commercial sustainability of this complicated but promising risk management technology.

Citation:
Cole, Shawn A., Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 104, no. 5 (May 2014): 284–290. View Details
Cite View Details Find at Harvard Read Now Related
Article | Review of Financial Studies | 2014
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.
Keywords: Performance Expectations; Investment Return;

Citation:
Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
Cite View Details Find at Harvard Read Now Related
Article | Journal of Financial Economics | August 2014
Mortgage Convexity
Samuel G. Hanson
Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS duration function as large-scale shocks to the quantity of interest rate risk that must be borne by professional bond investors. I develop a simple model in which the risk tolerance of bond investors is limited in the short run, so these fluctuations in MBS duration generate significant variation in bond risk premia. Specifically, bond risk premia are high when aggregate MBS duration is high. The model offers an explanation for why long-term rates could appear to be excessively sensitive to movements in short rates and explains how changes in MBS duration act as a positive-feedback mechanism that amplifies interest rate volatility. I find strong support for these predictions in the time series of US government bond returns.
Keywords: Mortgages; Interest Rates; Volatility;

Citation:
Hanson, Samuel G. "Mortgage Convexity." Journal of Financial Economics 113, no. 2 (August 2014): 270–299. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
Cite View Details Find at Harvard Read Now Related
Working Paper | 2014
Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a crowding out of corporate lending. For a given domestic firm, new debt is less likely to be a loan—i.e., the loan supply contracts—when local banks have purchased more domestic sovereign debt and when that debt is risky (as measured by CDS spreads). These effects are most pronounced in the period following the second Greek bailout in early 2010.
Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Greece;

Citation:
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Working Paper, April 2014. View Details
Cite View Details SSRN Read Now Related

Recent Publications

Article | IMF Economic Review | June 2019
Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation
Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. We revisit sovereign debt sustainability under the assumptions that countries can accumulate reserves and borrow internationally using their own currency. As opposed to traditional sovereign-debt models, asset-valuation effects occasioned by currency fluctuations act to absorb global shocks and render consumption smoother. Countries do not accumulate reserves to be depleted in “bad” times. Instead, issuing domestic debt while accumulating reserves acts as a hedge against external shocks. A quantitative exercise of the Brazilian economy suggests this strategy to be effective for smoothing consumption and reducing the occurrence of default.
Keywords: Sovereign debt; local-currency bonds; foreign reserves; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Financial Markets; Developing Countries and Economies;

Citation:
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation." IMF Economic Review 67, no. 2 (June 2019): 261–287. (Also NBER Working Paper No. 19098.) View Details
Cite View Details Find at Harvard Read Now Related
Working Paper | 2018
It is Easy to be Brave From a Safe Distance: Proximity to the SEC and Insider Trading
Trung Nguyen and Quoc H. Nguyen
We use hand-collected data from SEC’s litigation releases for insider trading violations to examine the effect of geographic distance on its enforcement activities and insider trading activities. First, we find that the SEC is more likely to investigate companies that are closer to its offices. Second, we find that illegal insider trading increases with a company’s distance from an SEC office. Lastly, we utilize the closure of SEC offices as exogenous shocks to geographic proximity and find that insider trading at nearby companies increase significantly compared with trading at otherwise similar companies not affected by the closures.
Keywords: SEC; enforcement; Financial Misconduct; insider trading; geographic proximity; Governance Compliance; Law Enforcement; Geographic Location; Finance; Crime and Corruption;

Citation:
Nguyen, Trung, and Quoc H. Nguyen. "It is Easy to be Brave From a Safe Distance: Proximity to the SEC and Insider Trading." Working Paper. View Details
Cite View Details SSRN Related
Case | HBS Case Collection | February 2019 (Revised March 2019)
Banorte and the Capital Call Facility: Infrastructure Finance in Mexico
John D. Macomber, Carla Larangeira and Fernanda Miguel
As a result of Mexico´s pension industry deregulation, pension funds were able to invest in energy and infrastructure projects through a variety of financial instruments, particularly through Capital Development Certificates (CKDs), an asset class that served as a vehicle for investing in unlisted companies. By the end of 2017, pension funds had invested more than $16 billion in infrastructure, with CKDs as the primary investment vehicle for this sector. Motivated by increased domestic liquidity and opportunities for investment, Rodrigo Jair launched Jair Infrastructure Investments, a specialized fund with the majority of its capital raised from pension funds. Jair was approached by Felipe Duarte, head of Banorte´s Infrastructure and Energy Group, who offered him a short-term credit line to increase the fund´s liquidity during its investment phase. Jair had to decide whether he should deploy this line or rely exclusively on capital calls from his investors to fund his pipeline. Was it worth paying the commitment fees to achieve increased liquidity? What risks should he consider when making this decision? What are the upsides and downsides of relying on equity or debt for a fund like Jair Infrastructure Investments? Will techniques like this bring significantly more capital into infrastructure investing?
Keywords: financial products; fund management; capital call facility; pension funds; Infrastructure; Energy; Finance; Decision Making; Investment Funds; Financial Instruments; North America; Mexico;

Citation:
Macomber, John D., Carla Larangeira, and Fernanda Miguel. "Banorte and the Capital Call Facility: Infrastructure Finance in Mexico." Harvard Business School Case 219-049, February 2019. (Revised March 2019.) View Details
Cite View Details Educators Related
Case | HBS Case Collection | January 2019
CrossBoundary Energy
John Macomber
Almost 500 million people are without electricity in sub-Saharan Africa. Governments and public utilities are challenged to bring generation and distribution to most of them. Considerable promise exists in “off-grid” or “mini-grid” technologies, notably using renewable energy from wind and photovoltaics in areas that have plentiful supplies of both yet limited access to traditional fuels due to other infrastructure constraints. Cross-Boundary is an experienced consulting firm and transaction facilitator run by several Harvard and Stanford MBAs, some with recent military experience.
In the case, the company needs to analyze and select which of two nations in Africa to enter next (Tanzania or Ghana) based on many aspects of each nation, has to decide which kinds of customers to serve who will compensate it directly for electricity, and whether to partner with developers and contractors or build that capability in-house.
Critically, the company has to evaluate as it matures whether it should be a) an aggregator of capital from multiple investing and lending sources, investing in a vendor agnostic manner into multiple energy developers and projects which it identifies from afar; or b), whether to be primarily a large scale multi-national competitive energy developer and project delivery company needing to attract capital from many sources, all of whom are selecting between several other developers and investment opportunities. What is their key value added and where can they build a defensible strategy? Which one best accomplishes the goal of matching up money and projects to help illuminate Africa?
Keywords: energy investing; economic development; Renewable Energy; Business Growth and Maturation; Developing Countries and Economies; Project Finance; Emerging Markets; Industry Structures; Infrastructure; Segmentation; Private Equity; Decision Choices and Conditions; Energy Industry; Utilities Industry; Africa; Tanzania; Ghana;

Citation:
Macomber, John. "CrossBoundary Energy." Harvard Business School Case 219-089, January 2019. View Details
Cite View Details Educators Related
Case | HBS Case Collection | January 2019
Ajeej Capital: Investing in Emerging Markets
Luis M. Viceira and Eren Kuzucu
In October 2007, Tarek Sakka and Fouad Dajani launched Ajeej Capital, the first independent investment advisory in the MENA region. Fittingly named ajeej, an Arabic word that translates to “growth and propagation in a chaotic setting,” the firm’s AUM grew from $20 million to $1 billion before its 10th anniversary despite a deep-cutting global financial crisis, market turmoil driven by the Arab Spring, and years of weak oil prices. Leveraging deep local knowledge, strong relations in the region, and a “PE investment approach in public equity markets,” Ajeej had outperformed its benchmark regional stock indices and attracted investing capital from large institutional investors around the world.

The case follows the investment methodology of Ajeej Capital’s investment fund, the Ajeej MENA Fund, through the turmoil of Ajeej’s first decade. The case then focuses in on September 2016, with Sakka and Dajani facing a historic hurdle: Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region, had just announced their first ever public-sector pay cuts, triggered by the Vision 2030 agenda. Ajeej, with 50% of its portfolio invested in Saudi companies, had to decide how to position its investment portfolio to successfully navigate a period of structural change in the region.
Keywords: Security Selection; Investments; Growth; culture; UAE; Finance; Asset Management; Emerging Markets; Capital Markets; Investment; Growth Management; Risk Management; Middle East; Saudi Arabia; Dubai; United Arab Emirates; Egypt; North Africa;

Citation:
Viceira, Luis M., and Eren Kuzucu. "Ajeej Capital: Investing in Emerging Markets." Harvard Business School Case 219-029, January 2019. View Details
Cite View Details Educators Purchase Related
Case | HBS Case Collection | January 2019 (Revised March 2019)
Ribbon Home: iBacking for Real Estate
Marco Di Maggio and Sarah Gulick
In November 2018, Shaival Shah, the founder and CEO of Ribbon Home had to decide on the next steps for the company. Ribbon had introduced a program that backs consumers with cash offers without creating a loan structure in order to help them compete with iBuyers, such as Zillow Offers and Opendoor. Ribbon had experienced a successful launch in Charlotte, North Carolina which prompted urgent strategic questions. Among them was the appropriate funding model – whether Ribbon be mainly a platform for others to fund transactions, or should it buy and hold homes on its balance sheet, which it could securitize and sell using a line of credit.
Keywords: consumers; real estate; Property; Finance; Market Platforms; Business Model; Decision Making; Real Estate Industry; Technology Industry;

Citation:
Di Maggio, Marco, and Sarah Gulick. "Ribbon Home: iBacking for Real Estate." Harvard Business School Case 219-059, January 2019. (Revised March 2019.) View Details
Cite View Details Educators Purchase Related
Case | HBS Case Collection | January 2019
King Abdullah Economic City: Population Drivers and Cash Flow
John D. Macomber
CEO of high profile new economic city in Saudi Arabia must decide how to allocate limited investment funds across projects under duress. Issues include understanding core economic drivers, planning infrastructure investment and return, attracting multinationals, energy policy, sustainability, urban planning, government incentives and regulations. Students must allocate limited funds, or accept outside investors at distress terms, with respect to city center, retail, resort, residential, education, utilities, commercial sale or leased land, worker housing, and a potential seaport.
Keywords: Urban Development; Infrastructure; Project Finance; Resource Allocation; Decision Making; City; Real Estate Industry; Saudi Arabia;

Citation:
Macomber, John D. "King Abdullah Economic City: Population Drivers and Cash Flow." Harvard Business School Case 219-079, January 2019. View Details
Cite View Details Educators Related
Case | HBS Case Collection | January 2019
Analytical Space: The Next Frontier?
Thomas R. Eisenmann, Jeffrey J. Bussgang and David Lane
With one satellite aloft and in the midst of beta testing in late 2018, Analytical Space founders Justin Oliveira and Dan Nevius turned to critical questions about the pioneering startup’s go-to-market, pricing, and business development strategy. Analytical Space aimed to build and operate a constellation of inexpensive satellites that would receive and relay to the ground data gathered by orbiting Earth observation satellites, thereby speeding and increasing the amount of data their operators could collect and sell to clients in the multi-billion market for information on crops, weather, and other observable changes on Earth. The cofounders now needed to select the best initial customers, validate demand for their unique data relay service, and establish pricing that would both spur adoption and impress investors ahead of their next financing round.
Keywords: pricing decisions; demand validation; revenue model; business development; space tech; satellites; earth observation; remote sensing; Business Startups; Emerging Markets; Growth and Development Strategy; Finance; Selection and Staffing; Business Strategy; Aerospace Industry;

Citation:
Eisenmann, Thomas R., Jeffrey J. Bussgang, and David Lane. "Analytical Space: The Next Frontier?" Harvard Business School Case 819-089, January 2019. View Details
Cite View Details Educators Related
Article | Management Science | January 2019
The ABCs of Financial Education: Experimental Evidence on Attitudes, Behavior, and Cognitive Biases
Fenella Carpena, Shawn A. Cole, Jeremy Shapiro and Bilal Zia
This paper uses a large-scale field experiment in India to study attitudinal, behavioral, and cognitive constraints that can stymie the link between financial education and financial outcomes. The study complements financial education with (1) financial incentives on a financial literacy test to affect participant motivation, (2) financial goal setting to provide a psychological nudge, and (3) personalized financial counseling to enhance the intensity of treatment. The analysis finds no impact of financial incentives on learning but significant effects of both goal setting and counseling on real financial outcomes. These results identify important complements to financial education that can bridge the gap between financial knowledge and behavior change.
Keywords: Finance; Education; Attitudes; Behavior; Outcome or Result;

Citation:
Carpena, Fenella, Shawn A. Cole, Jeremy Shapiro, and Bilal Zia. "The ABCs of Financial Education: Experimental Evidence on Attitudes, Behavior, and Cognitive Biases." Management Science 65, no. 1 (January 2019): 346–369. View Details
Cite View Details Find at Harvard Purchase Related
Case | HBS Case Collection | December 2018 (Revised March 2019)
Fluidity
Marco Di Maggio, David Lane and Susie Ma
In December 2018, the blockchain startup Fluidity was about to participate in its first tokenization deal, which would create digital access to property rights in a 12-unit Manhattan condominium complex. The deal was proof-of-concept for Fluidity, which hoped to develop a business digitizing securities issuance for other real estate assets on the basis of its technical facility with blockchain technology, and in conjunction with its broker-dealer partner, Propellr. A successful transaction would only prompt larger and more urgent strategic questions, however. Among them was the appropriate revenue model for Fluidity—whether to grow by providing its technical services to broker-dealers, by going into tokenized securities issuance, or by harnessing its trading technology to facilitate a secondary market in tokenized securities.
Keywords: Blockchain; tokenization; data security; revenue model; Finance; Technological Innovation; Strategy;

Citation:
Di Maggio, Marco, David Lane, and Susie Ma. "Fluidity." Harvard Business School Case 219-057, December 2018. (Revised March 2019.) View Details
Cite View Details Educators Purchase Related

See all faculty publications on Finance »

Faculty & Research

Featured Works

Faculty

HBS Working Knowledge

Harvard Business Publishing