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Finance

Finance

    • May 2014
    • Article

    Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment

    By: Shawn A. Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman

    This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand, consistent with overinference from small samples. Second, spillovers also matter, in the sense that the recent payout experience of village co-residents affects insurance demand about as much as one's own recent payout experience. Third, the spillover effect decays as time passes while the effect of one's own experience does not. We discuss implications of this analysis for commercial sustainability of this complicated but promising risk management technology.

    • May 2014
    • Article

    Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment

    By: Shawn A. Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman

    This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand, consistent with overinference from small samples. Second, spillovers also matter, in the...

    • 2014
    • Article

    Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

    By: Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer

    We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.

    • 2014
    • Article

    Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

    By: Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer

    We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated...

    • August 2014
    • Article

    Mortgage Convexity

    By: Samuel G. Hanson

    Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS duration function as large-scale shocks to the quantity of interest rate risk that must be borne by professional bond investors. I develop a simple model in which the risk tolerance of bond investors is limited in the short run, so these fluctuations in MBS duration generate significant variation in bond risk premia. Specifically, bond risk premia are high when aggregate MBS duration is high. The model offers an explanation for why long-term rates could appear to be excessively sensitive to movements in short rates and explains how changes in MBS duration act as a positive-feedback mechanism that amplifies interest rate volatility. I find strong support for these predictions in the time series of US government bond returns.

    • August 2014
    • Article

    Mortgage Convexity

    By: Samuel G. Hanson

    Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS duration function as large-scale shocks to the quantity of interest rate risk...

    • 2014
    • Working Paper

    Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

    By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

    By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a crowding out of corporate lending. For a given domestic firm, new debt is less likely to be a loan—i.e., the loan supply contracts—when local banks have purchased more domestic sovereign debt and when that debt is risky (as measured by CDS spreads). These effects are most pronounced in the period following the second Greek bailout in early 2010.

    • 2014
    • Working Paper

    Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

    By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

    By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a crowding out of corporate lending. For a given domestic firm, new debt is less likely...

Faculty Unit

The Finance Unit produces research addressing issues of present and future importance to managers, regulators, and policy-makers.
Finance Unit

Our intellectual roots are based in a long line of scholars from Robert Merton whose collaborative work on risk management and option pricing won him the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1997, to John Lintner who co-created the Capital Asset Pricing Model and made significant contributions to dividend policy, and Gordon Donaldson whose work helped shape the field of corporate finance. We strive to understand how managers and firms make value-enhancing decisions; and how financial institutions, markets, and instruments contribute to this process. Our approach to research is distinguished by its unique combination of theory, empirical analysis, mathematical modeling, and field observations at companies.

Faculty Unit

The Finance Unit produces research addressing issues of present and future importance to managers, regulators, and policy-makers.

Finance Unit

Recent Publications

Doing Business in Kigali, Rwanda

By: Andy Zelleke, A. Zelleke, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Wale Lawal
  • March 2023 |
  • Case |
  • Faculty Research
This case examines the challenges and opportunities of doing business in Rwanda. It highlights Rwanda's economic transformation in the decades leading up to 2023 in the context of its history, culture, and politics. The case gives an overview of some of the main obstacles faced by businesses operating in the country, high transportation costs, some of the most expensive electricity tariffs in sub-Saharan Africa and high levels of government bureaucracy, contrasting these with the efforts undertaken by the government to improve the country's business climate. This is illustrated through the discussion of a business dilemma in which e-mobility startup Ampersand has to assess the extent to which Rwanda's high openness could mean a high threat of competition or plenty opportunities for growth partnerships.
Keywords: Business History; Business and Government Relations; Technological Innovation; Foreign Direct Investment; Economic Growth; Transportation Industry; Tourism Industry; Rwanda
Citation
Educators
Related
Zelleke, Andy, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Pippa Tubman Armerding, and Wale Lawal. "Doing Business in Kigali, Rwanda." Harvard Business School Case 323-089, March 2023.

Comparison of COVID-19 Hospitalization Costs across Care Pathways: A Patient-level Time-driven Activity-based Costing Analysis in a Brazilian Hospital

By: Ricardo Bertoglio Cardoso, Miriam Allein Zago Marcolino, Milena Soriano Marcolino, Camila Felix Fortis, Leila Beltrami Moreira, Ana Paula Coutinho, Nadine Oliveira Clausell, Junaid Nabi, Robert S. Kaplan, Ana Paula Beck da Silva Etges and Carisi Anne Polanczyk
  • 2023 |
  • Article |
  • BMC Health Services Research
The COVID-19 pandemic raised awareness of the need to better understand where and how patient-level costs are incurred in health care organizations. This study used time-driven activity-based costing to estimate COVID-19 patient-level hospital costs in a Brazilian hospital for COVID-19 care management for 208 patients, stratified by hospital care pathway and Ordinal Scale for Clinical Improvement (OSCI) category. The most expensive care pathway was the ICU only, registering a median cost per patient of $13,519. All care pathways that included the ICU unit registered a higher cost per patient. The findings of how patient-level cost varied with Covid-19 care pathway can be used to develop sustainable value-reimbursement strategies in middle-income countries such as Brazil.
Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Cost; Health Industry; Brazil
Citation
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Cardoso, Ricardo Bertoglio, Miriam Allein Zago Marcolino, Milena Soriano Marcolino, Camila Felix Fortis, Leila Beltrami Moreira, Ana Paula Coutinho, Nadine Oliveira Clausell, Junaid Nabi, Robert S. Kaplan, Ana Paula Beck da Silva Etges, and Carisi Anne Polanczyk. "Comparison of COVID-19 Hospitalization Costs across Care Pathways: A Patient-level Time-driven Activity-based Costing Analysis in a Brazilian Hospital." BMC Health Services Research 23, no. 198 (2023).

Doing Business in Accra, Ghana

By: Hakeem Belo-Osagie, Leonard Schlesinger and Namrata Arora
  • February 2023 |
  • Case |
  • Faculty Research
This case examines the challenges and opportunities of doing business in Turkey. It highlights Ghana economic transformation in the decades leading up to 2023 in the context of its history, culture, and politics. The case gives an overview of some of the main obstacles faced by businesses operating in the country, such as complexity of doing business, slow legal proceedings, limited access to funding, a slow growing manufacturing sector, a large informal sector and changing regulatory environment, contrasting these with the efforts undertaken by the government to improve the country's business climate. This is illustrated through the discussion of a business dilemma in which an entrepreneur is considering setting up a chocolate manufacturing business in Ghana.
Keywords: Business History; Business and Government Relations; Technological Innovation; Foreign Direct Investment; Economic Growth; Financial Crisis; Agribusiness; Food and Beverage Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Ghana
Citation
Educators
Related
Belo-Osagie, Hakeem, Leonard Schlesinger, and Namrata Arora. "Doing Business in Accra, Ghana." Harvard Business School Case 323-090, February 2023.

Doing Business in Istanbul, Turkey

By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Namrata Arora and Umut Arslan
  • February 2023 |
  • Case |
  • Faculty Research
This case examines the challenges and opportunities of doing business in Turkey. It highlights Turkey's economic transformation in the decades leading up to 2023 in the context of its history, culture, and politics. The case gives an overview of some of the main obstacles faced by businesses operating in the country, such as complexity of doing business, slow legal proceedings and a large informal sector and changing regulatory environment, contrasting these with the efforts undertaken by the government to improve the country's business climate. This is illustrated through the discussion of a business dilemma in which Setur is contemplating its business strategy in the wake of Covid-19 pandemic and changing consumer tastes and preferences.
Keywords: Business History; Business and Government Relations; Technological Innovation; Foreign Direct Investment; Economic Growth; Financial Crisis; Technology Industry; Tourism Industry; Turkey
Citation
Educators
Related
Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Namrata Arora, and Umut Arslan. "Doing Business in Istanbul, Turkey." Harvard Business School Case 323-081, February 2023.

Doing Business in Nairobi, Kenya

By: Archie Jones, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Kuria Kamau
  • February 2023 |
  • Case |
  • Faculty Research
This case examines the challenges and opportunities of doing business in Nairobi, Kenya. It highlights Kenya's economic transformation in the decades leading up to 2023 in the context of its history, culture, and politics. The case gives an overview of some of the main obstacles faced by businesses operating in the country and contrasting these with the efforts undertaken by the government to improve the country's business climate. This is illustrated through the discussion of a business dilemma in which Enda Sportswear is looking to grow its sales in Kenya through increased domestic production.
Keywords: Business History; Business and Government Relations; Technological Innovation; Foreign Direct Investment; Economic Growth; Financial Crisis; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Fashion Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Retail Industry; Kenya; Nairobi; Africa
Citation
Educators
Related
Jones, Archie, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Pippa Tubman Armerding, and Kuria Kamau. "Doing Business in Nairobi, Kenya." Harvard Business School Case 323-086, February 2023.

Doing Business in Helsinki, Finland

By: Martin A. Sinozich, Lena Duchene, Tonia Labruyere and Daniela Beyersdorfer
  • February 2023 |
  • Case |
  • Faculty Research
This case examines the challenges and opportunities of doing business in Finland. It highlights Finland's economic transformation in the decades leading up to 2023 in the context of its history, culture, and politics. The case gives an overview of some of the main obstacles faced by businesses operating in the country, such as labor shortages, inflexibility in employment regulations, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and slowing growth, contrasting these with the efforts undertaken by the government to improve the country's business climate. This is illustrated through the discussion of a business dilemma in which the confectionary company Fazer needs to manage its exit from the Russian market while continuing its sustainability efforts in a changing industry environment.
Keywords: Business History; Business and Government Relations; Corporate Strategy; Research and Development; Foreign Direct Investment; Crisis Management; Culture; Environmental Sustainability; International Relations; Food and Beverage Industry; Finland; Europe
Citation
Educators
Related
Sinozich, Martin A., Lena Duchene, Tonia Labruyere, and Daniela Beyersdorfer. "Doing Business in Helsinki, Finland." Harvard Business School Case 323-079, February 2023.

Doing Business in Athens, Greece

By: Alan D. MacCormack, Carlota Moniz and Emilie Billaud
  • February 2023 |
  • Case |
  • Faculty Research
This case examines the challenges and opportunities of doing business in Greece. It highlights Greece's economic transformation in the decades leading up to 2023 in the context of its history, culture, and politics. The case gives an overview of some of the main obstacles faced by businesses operating in the country, such as extensive red tape, slow legal proceedings and a large informal sector, contrasting these with the efforts undertaken by the government to improve the country's business climate. This is illustrated through the discussion of a business dilemma in which Microsoft has chosen Greece for the construction of two of its data centers.
Keywords: Business and Government Relations; Technological Innovation; Foreign Direct Investment; Economic Growth; Financial Crisis; Technology Industry; Tourism Industry; Shipping Industry; Greece; Athens
Citation
Educators
Related
MacCormack, Alan D., Carlota Moniz, and Emilie Billaud. "Doing Business in Athens, Greece." Harvard Business School Case 323-100, February 2023.

Kapor Capital

By: Jeffrey J. Bussgang, Lindsay N. Hyde and Julia Kelley
  • February 2023 |
  • Case |
  • Faculty Research
Case on succession planning at a mission-driven, diverse VC firm
Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Operations; Business Startups; Financial Services Industry; United States
Citation
Educators
Related
Bussgang, Jeffrey J., Lindsay N. Hyde, and Julia Kelley. "Kapor Capital." Harvard Business School Case 823-023, February 2023.

Accelerating the Accelerator: Raja Al Mazrouei at DIFC Fintech Hive

By: Linda A. Hill, Emily Tedards and Lydia Begag
  • February 2023 |
  • Case |
  • Faculty Research
In January 2023, Raja Al Mazrouei became the Managing Director and Acting CEO of Etihad Credit Insurance (ECI) in Dubai, UAE. In her previous role as the Executive Vice President of the DIFC Fintech Hive, she successfully built and led an accelerator program for start-ups in the financial technology (fintech) sector in Dubai. The Fintech Hive has had successful partnerships with established banks like Emirates NBD and accelerated over 200 start-ups in the MENA region. Al Mazrouei and her team embraced recent technologies and evolved their business models to keep up with the global digital space.

With Dubai's ambition to be one of the top ten metaverse economies by 2030, Al Mazrouei’s last mandate as EVP of Fintech Hive was to strategize on how to deepen their partnerships and remain at the forefront of technology. She decided to focus on the metaverse with her long-standing partner, Emirates NBD. Although some questioned whether the metaverse would create value for those in the financial sector, this project kept Fintech Hive and Emirates NBD on the cutting edge. Together, they created a global accelerator program for metaverse start-ups to enhance customer experience, contributing to the country’s agenda. It was clear to Al Mazrouei that building partnerships, like the one established with Emirates NBD, would continue to be critical for success in her new position. She was eager to collaborate with her new team and fulfill the country’s ambitions by building the culture and capabilities required to embrace innovation and digital technology across the Dubai government and economy.
Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Management; Strategy; Technology Adoption; Information Infrastructure; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technological Innovation; Digital Marketing; Digital Strategy; Digital Transformation; Global Strategy; Globalized Markets and Industries; Banks and Banking; Corporate Finance; Leadership; Leadership Development; Leadership Style; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Banking Industry; Middle East; Singapore; London; United Arab Emirates; Dubai
Citation
Educators
Purchase
Related
Hill, Linda A., Emily Tedards, and Lydia Begag. "Accelerating the Accelerator: Raja Al Mazrouei at DIFC Fintech Hive." Harvard Business School Case 423-064, February 2023.

Roblox: Virtual Commerce in the Metaverse

By: Ayelet Israeli and Nicole Tempest Keller
  • February 2023 |
  • Case |
  • Faculty Research
In 2022, Roblox had 58.8 million daily active users, including over half of all children and teens under the age of 16 in the United States. Roblox, a free-to-use “co-experience platform”, allowed users to come together in immersive 3D experiences to socialize, work, play, learn, and purchase virtual and real goods. Brands saw Roblox as a major metaverse testing ground and experimented by offering a variety of branded items and experiences.

In 2022, Roblox was grappling with how to maintain revenue growth and generate profits, considering two key decisions. First, how should Roblox expand its partnerships with brands, and should Roblox allow brands to offer immersive advertising within experiences? Roblox would have to tread carefully to not raise the ire of watchdog groups who were wary of advertising targeted at children. Second, should Roblox change its economic model which was free to publish, and adopt a “scarcity economy” whereby Roblox would allow creators to only publish items in limited quantities and charge an upfront fee for item creation, similar to a manufacturing fee? On one hand, scarcity could prevent excess supply from driving down prices, but culturally Roblox users and developers were accustomed to unlimited supply, low prices, and virtually no upfront fees.
Keywords: Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Market Design; Marketing; Brands and Branding; Marketing Channels; Marketing Strategy; Business Strategy; Economics; Economy; Economic Systems; Advertising; Advertising Campaigns; Digital Platforms; Markets; Price; Innovation and Management; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Video Game Industry; Technology Industry; United States; California; North America; South America; Asia; Europe
Citation
Educators
Purchase
Related
Israeli, Ayelet, and Nicole Tempest Keller. "Roblox: Virtual Commerce in the Metaverse." Harvard Business School Case 523-028, February 2023.
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Harvard Business Publishing

    • September–October 2022
    • Article

    The Essential Link Between ESG Targets and Financial Performance

    By: Mark R. Kramer and Marc W. Pfitzer
    • February 2023
    • Case

    Accelerating the Accelerator: Raja Al Mazrouei at DIFC Fintech Hive

    By: Linda A. Hill, Emily Tedards and Lydia Begag
    • 2017
    • Book

    HBR Guide to Buying a Small Business: Think Big, Buy Small, Own Your Own Company

    By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff
→More Harvard Business Publishing
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