Finance

Finance is a featured research topic at Harvard Business School.

Our intellectual roots are based in a long line of scholars from Robert Merton whose collaborative work on risk management and option pricing won him the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1997, to John Lintner who co-created the Capital Asset Pricing Model and made significant contributions to dividend policy, and Gordon Donaldson whose work helped shape the field of corporate finance. We strive to understand how managers and firms make value-enhancing decisions; and how financial institutions, markets, and instruments contribute to this process. Our approach to research is distinguished by its unique combination of theory, empirical analysis, mathematical modeling, and field observations at companies.

Featured Works

Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2018
Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Our new model of consumption-based habit formation preferences generates loglinear, homoscedastic macroeconomic dynamics and time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free interest rate takes the form of an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation, commonly assumed in New Keynesian models. Estimating the model separately for 1979–2001 and 2001–2011 explains why the exposure of U.S. Treasury bonds to the stock market changed from positive to negative. A change in the comovement between inflation and the output gap explains changing bond risks but only when risk premia change endogenously as predicted by the model.
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Central Banking; System Shocks; Policy; Macroeconomics;

Citation:
Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-031, September 2013. (Revised August 2018.) View Details
Cite View Details SSRN Read Now Related
Working Paper | 2016
Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News
Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on more favorable analysts experience more negative future earnings surprises and more future earnings restatements. A long-short portfolio that exploits this differential firm behavior earns abnormal returns of up to 149 basis points per month, or almost 18 percent per year. We find similar evidence in an international sample of earnings call transcripts from the UK, Canada, France, and Japan. Firms with higher discretionary accruals, firms that barely meet/exceed earnings expectations, and firms (and their executives) that are about to issue equity, sell shares, and exercise options, are all significantly more likely to cast their earnings calls.
Keywords: Information; Strategy; Ethics;

Citation:
Cohen, Lauren, Dong Lou, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News." Working Paper, October 2016. (Winner of 2014 Crowell Memorial Prize For the best paper on quantitative investing, PanAgora Asset Management, Inc. 2014.) View Details
Cite View Details SSRN Related
Article | American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings | May 2014
Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment
Shawn A. Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand, consistent with overinference from small samples. Second, spillovers also matter, in the sense that the recent payout experience of village co-residents affects insurance demand about as much as one's own recent payout experience. Third, the spillover effect decays as time passes while the effect of one's own experience does not. We discuss implications of this analysis for commercial sustainability of this complicated but promising risk management technology.

Citation:
Cole, Shawn A., Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 104, no. 5 (May 2014): 284–290. View Details
Cite View Details Find at Harvard Read Now Related
Article | Review of Financial Studies | 2014
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.
Keywords: Performance Expectations; Investment Return;

Citation:
Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
Cite View Details Find at Harvard Read Now Related
Article | Journal of Financial Economics | August 2014
Mortgage Convexity
Samuel G. Hanson
Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS duration function as large-scale shocks to the quantity of interest rate risk that must be borne by professional bond investors. I develop a simple model in which the risk tolerance of bond investors is limited in the short run, so these fluctuations in MBS duration generate significant variation in bond risk premia. Specifically, bond risk premia are high when aggregate MBS duration is high. The model offers an explanation for why long-term rates could appear to be excessively sensitive to movements in short rates and explains how changes in MBS duration act as a positive-feedback mechanism that amplifies interest rate volatility. I find strong support for these predictions in the time series of US government bond returns.
Keywords: Mortgages; Interest Rates; Volatility;

Citation:
Hanson, Samuel G. "Mortgage Convexity." Journal of Financial Economics 113, no. 2 (August 2014): 270–299. (Internet Appendix Here.) View Details
Cite View Details Find at Harvard Read Now Related
Working Paper | 2014
Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a crowding out of corporate lending. For a given domestic firm, new debt is less likely to be a loan—i.e., the loan supply contracts—when local banks have purchased more domestic sovereign debt and when that debt is risky (as measured by CDS spreads). These effects are most pronounced in the period following the second Greek bailout in early 2010.
Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Greece;

Citation:
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Working Paper, April 2014. View Details
Cite View Details SSRN Read Now Related

Recent Publications

Article | Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient | 2018
Revenue Farming Reconsidered: Tenurial Rights and Tenurial Duties in Early Modern India, ca. 1556–1818
Sudev J Sheth
The meaning of land revenue farming in Indian history has eluded consensus. Some view it as an administrative aberration indicating weak state control, while others see it as a strategy for consolidating authority. This essay traces the historical development of iqṭāʻ and ijārah, two Perso-Arabic terms frequently translated from the sources as ‘revenue farming estate’. I then suggest that existing perspectives do not capture the broader structure and significance of various entitlements to land revenue. Instead, I suggest that entitlements be schematized according to how regularized the right was, whether it was permanent, and how duty-bound the right holder was. In this formulation, REVENUE FARM refers to a complex of rights and duties secured by contract in which a sovereign transferred the temporary exploitation of a holding for rent in advance. It was one of four tenurial complexes under which entitlements fell, the others being estates from BUREAUCRATIC ASSIGNMENT, HEREDITARY OCCUPATION or POSSESSION BY GRANT/GIFT, and TRIBUTARY or CHIEFTAINCY.
Keywords: iqṭāʻ; ijārah; revenue farming; financial agents; Mughal Empire; Business History; Business and Government Relations; Property; Finance; South Asia;

Citation:
Sheth, Sudev J. "Revenue Farming Reconsidered: Tenurial Rights and Tenurial Duties in Early Modern India, ca. 1556–1818." Art. 4. Special Issue on Repossessing Property in South Asia: Land, Rights, and Law across the Early Modern/Modern Divide edited by Faisal Chaudhury. Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient 61, nos. 5-6 (2018): 878–919. View Details
Cite View Details Register to Read Related
Case | HBS Case Collection | July 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Hidrovias do Brasil: Navigating Unchartered Waters
Boris Groysberg and Sarah L. Abbott
Since its founding eight years earlier, Hidrovias do Brasil (“Hidrovias”), an integrated logistics provider serving corporate customers exporting products from South America via the Atlantic Ocean, had grown to 900 employees and $253 million in annual revenues. Hidrovias was founded by the Brazilian private equity firm, Pátria Investments, who had built the business from the ground up, forging and nurturing relationships with customers, investors, government entities, and suppliers. As Bruno Serapiao, Hidrovias’s CEO pondered next steps for the company, he considered the following questions: What had been the key drivers of Hidrovias’s success to date? What were the major challenges? And, what was the best path for the company going forward?
Keywords: growth and development; leadership; operations; human resources; private equity; Brazil; emerging markets; entrepreneurial organizations; operation management; strategy; general management; Entrepreneurship; Finance; Growth and Development; Leadership; Operations; Problems and Challenges; Transportation; Human Capital; Strategy; Emerging Markets; Brazil;

Citation:
Groysberg, Boris, and Sarah L. Abbott. "Hidrovias do Brasil: Navigating Unchartered Waters." Harvard Business School Case 419-007, July 2018. (Revised September 2018.) View Details
Cite View Details Educators Purchase Related
Case | HBS Case Collection | July 2018 (Revised August 2018)
Project Helios: Harvesting the Sun
Mark Egan and E. Scott Mayfield
Aware of the impact that modern society was having on the environment, Ashley Telkes had always tried to be cognizant of her own impact on the environment and to take reasonable steps to mitigate her own effects. Having already implemented a number of passive measures to minimize her “carbon footprint,” Telkes must now confront the bigger decision of whether or not to invest in solar panels to generate electricity for her home. Although pre-disposed to pursue environmentally friendly alternatives, the project entailed significant up-front expenses and Telkes could not afford to make a poor financial decision. Telkes must assess the financial merits of the project, as well as understand the regulatory and technological risks associated with going forward or choosing to delay.
Keywords: Renewable Energy; Personal Finance; Decision Making; Environmental Sustainability;

Citation:
Egan, Mark, and E. Scott Mayfield. "Project Helios: Harvesting the Sun." Harvard Business School Case 219-009, July 2018. (Revised August 2018.) View Details
Cite View Details Educators Purchase Related
Article | Harvard Business Review | July–August 2018
The Other Diversity Dividend
Paul Gompers and Silpa Kovvali
Researchers have struggled to establish a causal relationship between diversity and financial performance—especially at large companies, where decision rights and incentives can be murky, and the effects of any given choice can be tough to pin down. So the authors chose a “lab rat” with fewer barriers to understanding—the venture capital industry. VC firms are fairly flat: Every investor is a decision maker, and choices have clear business consequences. Using publicly available information, researchers can see how similar or different decision makers are and compare decision quality on the basis of investments’ performance. After examining tens of thousands of VC investments, Gompers has found that diversity significantly improves financial performance on measures such as profitable investments at the individual portfolio-company level and overall fund returns. And even though associating with similar people can have social benefits for those people, it can lead investors and firms to leave a lot of money on the table. In this article Gompers and Kovvali describe the research and provide recommendations for reaping the business benefits of diversity.
Keywords: Diversity; Decision Making; Finance; Performance Improvement; Venture Capital;

Citation:
Gompers, Paul, and Silpa Kovvali. "The Other Diversity Dividend." Harvard Business Review 96, no. 4 (July–August 2018): 72–77. View Details
Cite View Details Find at Harvard Register to Read Related
Working Paper | 2018
Behavioral Household Finance
John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
This chapter provides an overview of household finance. The first part summarizes key facts regarding household financial behavior, emphasizing empirical regularities that are inconsistent with the standard classical economic model and discussing extensions of the classical model and explanations grounded in behavioral economics that can account for the observed patterns. This part covers five topics: consumption and savings, borrowing, payments, asset allocation, and insurance. The second part addresses interventions that firms, governments, and other parties deploy to shape household financial outcomes: education and information, peer effects and social influence, product design, advice and disclosure, choice architecture, and interventions that directly target prices or quantities.
Keywords: Personal Finance; Global Range; Household; Behavior; Strategy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Product Design; Welfare or Wellbeing;

Citation:
Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "Behavioral Household Finance." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 24854, July 2018. View Details
Cite View Details Find at Harvard Read Now Related
Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2018
Good Credit and the Good Life: Credit Scores Predict Subjective Well-Being
Joe J. Gladstone and Ashley V. Whillans
Can money buy happiness? To examine this question, research in economics, psychology, and sociology has focused almost exclusively on examining the associations between income, spending or wealth and subjective well-being. Moving beyond this research, we provide the first empirical evidence that credit scores uniquely predict happiness. Across two samples, from the United Kingdom (N=615) and the United States (N=768), credit scores predicted life satisfaction even after controlling for a range of financial covariates, including income, spending, savings, debt, and home-ownership. Respondents with higher credit scores felt more optimistic about their future, promoting happiness. Further, the relationship between credit scores and wellbeing was moderated by participants’ prior awareness of their score. Together, these results suggest that creditworthiness can plausibly increase well-being, either directly or indirectly, meaning that interventions to improve creditworthiness could improve consumer welfare.
Keywords: well-being; credit scores; consumer finance; emotions; Credit; Personal Finance; Welfare or Wellbeing; Happiness;

Citation:
Gladstone, Joe J., and Ashley V. Whillans. "Good Credit and the Good Life: Credit Scores Predict Subjective Well-Being." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-112, June 2018. View Details
Cite View Details Read Now Related
Case | HBS Case Collection | May 2018
Argentina Power – Don't Cry for Me Argentina
Nori Gerardo Lietz and Sayiddah Fatima McCree
In 2016, Bruce Wayne, Managing Director of Energy Finance Corporation (“EFC”), was refining the Investment/Credit Committee materials for the development of up to 10 power generating plants in Argentina. As a subsidiary of the much larger International Conglomerate Corporation (“ICC”), EFC had to convince ICC’s Investment/Credit Committee to provide capital despite the many risks associated with investing in Argentina.
Due to Argentina’s vast energy resources, its modern political history has been deeply intertwined with its “energy” history. In its many military coups and political uprisings, typically each government used artificially low energy prices to keep the population subdued and the revenues from YPF to finance these subsidies or worse to line their pockets. Many of the interventionist measures that Argentina's governments imposed on the energy sector, such as price controls and at the most extreme nationalization, made it nearly impossible for private sector energy players to succeed or for the public sector to invest in its development.
After severe blackouts in the summer of 2014, many Argentines in the country's most populous cities were outraged and went to the streets in protest. These blackouts were specifically due to the increased power usage for air conditioning in the summer months but were more generally caused by the removal of subsidies for power companies and a dearth of public and private infrastructure investment. Into this environment, President Macri was elected and he made energy reform one of the key pillars of his administration. Furthermore, he invited the private sector back into Argentina to immediately alleviate its power generation deficiencies.
In this case, the students will examine the ways in which Bruce Wayne and his team may structure and diligence this electric power infrastructure deal. Particularly, the students should come to understand how the deal structure could allow EFC to both gain the most benefit but also shift the risks away from their company. Key questions that will be explored include: What makes investing in infrastructure particularly risky? Can private investment close the world’s infrastructure gap? Can political risk be mitigated?
Keywords: cross border; energy markets; Infrastructure finance; Infrastructure development; Business Subsidiaries; Business Cycles; Macroeconomics; Energy Generation; International Finance; Project Finance; Government and Politics; Demand and Consumers; Infrastructure; Utilities Industry; Energy Industry; Latin America;

Citation:
Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Sayiddah Fatima McCree. "Argentina Power – Don't Cry for Me Argentina." Harvard Business School Case 218-041, May 2018. View Details
Cite View Details Educators Related
Working Paper | 2018
Pension Policy and the Financial System
David S. Scharfstein
This paper examines the effect of pension policy on the structure of financial systems around the world. In particular, I explore the hypothesis that policies that promote pension savings also promote the development of capital markets. I present a model that endogenizes the extent to which savings are intermediated through banks or capital markets, and derive implications for corporate finance, household finance, banking, and the size of the financial sector. I then present a number of facts that are broadly consistent with the theory and examine a variety of alternative explanations of my findings.
Keywords: Saving; Retirement; Policy; Finance; System; Global Range; Theory; Mathematical Methods;

Citation:
Scharfstein, David S. "Pension Policy and the Financial System." Working Paper, May 2018. View Details
Cite View Details Read Now Related
Article | Academy of Management Journal | April 2018
We Ask Men to Win & Women Not to Lose: Closing the Gender Gap in Startup Funding
Dana Kanze, Laura Huang, Mark Conley and E. Tory Higgins
Male entrepreneurs are known to raise higher levels of funding than their female counterparts, but the underlying mechanism for this funding disparity remains contested. Drawing upon Regulatory Focus Theory, we propose that the gap originates with a gender bias in the questions that investors pose to entrepreneurs. A field study conducted on question-and-answer interactions at TechCrunch Disrupt New York City during 2010 through 2016 reveals that investors tend to ask male entrepreneurs promotion-focused questions and female entrepreneurs prevention-focused questions, and that entrepreneurs tend to respond with matching regulatory focus. This distinction in the regulatory focus of investor questions and entrepreneur responses results in divergent funding outcomes for entrepreneurs whereby those asked promotion-focused questions raise significantly higher amounts of funding than those asked prevention-focused questions. We demonstrate that every additional prevention-focused question significantly hinders the entrepreneur's ability to raise capital, fully mediating gender's effect on funding. By experimentally testing an intervention, we find that entrepreneurs can significantly increase funding for their startups when responding to prevention-focused questions with promotion-focused answers. As we offer evidence regarding tactics that can be employed to diminish the gender disadvantage in funding outcomes, this study has practical as well as theoretical implications for entrepreneurship.
Keywords: Business Startups; Finance; Gender; Prejudice and Bias;

Citation:
Kanze, Dana, Laura Huang, Mark Conley, and E. Tory Higgins. "We Ask Men to Win & Women Not to Lose: Closing the Gender Gap in Startup Funding." Academy of Management Journal 61, no. 2 (April 2018): 586–614. View Details
Cite View Details Find at Harvard Purchase Related
Case | HBS Case Collection | March 2018
African Bank Investments Limited (A)
Lynn S. Paine and Will Hurwitz
Less than a year after joining the board of African Bank Investments Limited (ABIL), the newest director finds himself in difficult discussions with other directors about removing the struggling company’s CEO. The case is set in South Africa in mid-2014 as shares in ABIL, which traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, are declining precipitously. The case describes ABIL’s origins and evolution, including the acquisition and growth of its wholly owned subsidiary African Bank, a provider of unsecured loans to help individuals pay for expenses such as vehicle repairs, home renovations, funeral costs, medical bills, and education. As ABIL’s profits rose and share price soared, it became the darling of analysts. However, when the South African economy turned sour, customers started defaulting on their loans, and ABIL and African Bank began to struggle. As ABIL’s stock price dropped, the management team faced difficult questions about the company’s lending practices, risk management processes, and plans to turn the business around. By 2014, the situation was grim, and pressure mounted from shareholders and market regulators for the board to take action. The case details the history of unsecured lending in South Africa, describes the regulatory, social, and legal contexts for the company and its business model, and explores the company’s unique corporate structure and executive and director dynamics.
Keywords: Ethics; Personal Finance; Corporate Accountability; Governing and Advisory Boards; Corporate Governance; Crisis Management; Insurance; Leadership; Management; Risk Management; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; Africa; South Africa;

Citation:
Paine, Lynn S., and Will Hurwitz. "African Bank Investments Limited (A)." Harvard Business School Case 318-095, March 2018. View Details
Cite View Details Educators Related

See all faculty publications on Finance »

Faculty & Research

Featured Works

Faculty

Seminars & Conferences

HBS Working Knowledge

Harvard Business Publishing