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- 2023
- Working Paper
An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits
By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the...
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Liang, Biyonka, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-057, March 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Design of Panel Experiments with Spatial and Temporal Interference
By: Tu Ni, Iavor Bojinov and Jinglong Zhao
One of the main practical challenges companies face when running experiments (or A/B tests) over a panel is interference, the setting where one experimental unit's treatment assignment at one time period impacts another's outcomes, possibly at the following time...
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Keywords:
Research
Ni, Tu, Iavor Bojinov, and Jinglong Zhao. "Design of Panel Experiments with Spatial and Temporal Interference." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-058, March 2024.
- March 2024
- Article
Medicare Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation Following the Inflation Reduction Act
By: Matthew Vogel, Pragya Kakani, Amitabh Chandra and Rena M. Conti
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate lower prices for some medicines with high Medicare spending. Using historical data from public and proprietary sources to apply the IRA's negotiation criteria retrospectively, we identify all drugs that...
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Keywords:
Policy;
Government Legislation;
Health Care and Treatment;
Negotiation;
Price;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Vogel, Matthew, Pragya Kakani, Amitabh Chandra, and Rena M. Conti. "Medicare Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation Following the Inflation Reduction Act." Nature Biotechnology 42, no. 3 (March 2024): 406–412.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Contributing to Growth? The Role of Open Source Software for Global Startups
By: Nataliya Langburd Wright, Frank Nagle and Shane Greenstein
Does participating in open source software (OSS) communities spur entrepreneurial growth? More
efficiently developing shared code, learning from what the OSS community has developed, and
shaping the direction of massive projects, such as those linked to frameworks...
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Keywords:
Applications and Software;
Open Source Distribution;
Entrepreneurship;
Business Growth and Maturation;
Human Capital;
Valuation;
Corporate Strategy
Wright, Nataliya Langburd, Frank Nagle, and Shane Greenstein. "Contributing to Growth? The Role of Open Source Software for Global Startups." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-040, January 2024.
- January 2024
- Article
Population Interference in Panel Experiments
By: Kevin Wu Han, Guillaume Basse and Iavor Bojinov
The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit’s outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in...
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Han, Kevin Wu, Guillaume Basse, and Iavor Bojinov. "Population Interference in Panel Experiments." Journal of Econometrics 238, no. 1 (January 2024).
- 2023
- Article
Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy
By: Yufan Li, Jialiang Mao and Iavor Bojinov
Phased releases are a common strategy in the technology industry for gradually releasing new products or updates through a sequence of A/B tests in which the number of treated units gradually grows until full deployment or deprecation. Performing phased releases in a...
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Li, Yufan, Jialiang Mao, and Iavor Bojinov. "Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2023).
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Uneven Impact of Generative AI on Entrepreneurial Performance
By: Nicholas G. Otis, Rowan Clarke, Solène Delecourt, David Holtz and Rembrand Koning
There is a growing belief that scalable and low-cost AI assistance can improve firm
decision-making and economic performance. However, running a business involves
a myriad of open-ended problems, making it hard to generalize from recent studies
showing that...
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Keywords:
AI and Machine Learning;
Performance Improvement;
Small Business;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Kenya
Otis, Nicholas G., Rowan Clarke, Solène Delecourt, David Holtz, and Rembrand Koning. "The Uneven Impact of Generative AI on Entrepreneurial Performance." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-042, December 2023.
- 2023
- Article
Digital Health Reimbursement Strategies of 8 European Countries and Israel: Scoping Review and Policy Mapping
By: Robin van Kessel, Divya Srivastava, Ilias Kyriopoulos, Giovanni Monti, David Novillo-Ortiz, Ran Milman, Wojciech Wilhelm Zhang-Czabanowski, Greta Nasi, Ariel Dora Stern, George Wharton and Elias Mossialos
Background: The adoption of digital health care within health systems is determined by various factors, including pricing and reimbursement. The reimbursement landscape for digital health in Europe remains underresearched. Although various emergency reimbursement...
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Keywords:
Technology Adoption;
Health Care and Treatment;
Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues;
Price;
Health Industry;
Europe;
Israel
van Kessel, Robin, Divya Srivastava, Ilias Kyriopoulos, Giovanni Monti, David Novillo-Ortiz, Ran Milman, Wojciech Wilhelm Zhang-Czabanowski, Greta Nasi, Ariel Dora Stern, George Wharton, and Elias Mossialos. "Digital Health Reimbursement Strategies of 8 European Countries and Israel: Scoping Review and Policy Mapping." e49003. JMIR mHealth and uHealth 11 (2023).
- 2023
- Article
Evidence from the First Shared Medical Appointments (SMAs) Randomised Controlled Trial in India: SMAs Increase the Satisfaction, Knowledge, and Medication Compliance of Patients with Glaucoma
By: Nazlı Sönmez, Kavitha Srinivasan, Rengaraj Venkatesh, Ryan W. Buell and Kamalini Ramdas
In Shared Medical Appointments (SMAs), patients with similar conditions meet the physician together and each receives one-on-one attention. SMAs can improve outcomes and physician productivity. Yet privacy concerns have stymied adoption. In physician-deprived nations,...
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Sönmez, Nazlı, Kavitha Srinivasan, Rengaraj Venkatesh, Ryan W. Buell, and Kamalini Ramdas. "Evidence from the First Shared Medical Appointments (SMAs) Randomised Controlled Trial in India: SMAs Increase the Satisfaction, Knowledge, and Medication Compliance of Patients with Glaucoma." e0001648. PLoS Global Public Health 3, no. 7 (2023).
- Summer 2023
- Article
Do Policies to Increase Access to Treatment for Opioid Use Disorder Work?
By: Eric Barrette, Leemore S. Dafny and Karen Shen
Even among commercially insured individuals, opioid use disorder is undertreated in the United States: nearly half receive no treatment within six months of a new diagnosis. Using a difference-in-differences specification exploiting the extension of insurance parity...
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Keywords:
Opioid Treatment;
Medication-assisted Treatment;
Substance Use Disorder;
Private Insurance;
Insurance;
Health Care and Treatment
Barrette, Eric, Leemore S. Dafny, and Karen Shen. "Do Policies to Increase Access to Treatment for Opioid Use Disorder Work?" American Journal of Health Economics 9, no. 3 (Summer 2023): 297–330.
- 3 Jun 2023
- Talk
Health Care Innovation Opportunities Created by COVID-19 and How to Make Them Happen
The crush of patients created by COVID enabled the creation of sites for care outside the traditional hospital, such as retail pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, urgent care centers, telemedicine, and wireless sensors. Public policy mirrored these changes by...
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Keywords:
Policy;
Health Pandemics;
Health Care and Treatment;
Innovation and Invention;
Health Industry;
Insurance Industry
Herzlinger, Regina E. "Health Care Innovation Opportunities Created by COVID-19 and How to Make Them Happen." Harvard Business School Alumni Reunion, Boston, MA, June 3, 2023. (Link to cases described in this talk.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
Random Distribution Shift in Refugee Placement: Strategies for Building Robust Models
By: Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson and Dominik Rothenhäusler
Algorithmic assignment of refugees and asylum seekers to locations within host
countries has gained attention in recent years, with implementations in the U.S.
and Switzerland. These approaches use data on past arrivals to generate machine
learning models that can...
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Bansak, Kirk, Elisabeth Paulson, and Dominik Rothenhäusler. "Random Distribution Shift in Refugee Placement: Strategies for Building Robust Models." Working Paper, June 2023.
- April 5, 2023
- Article
We Need an Operation Warp Speed for Long COVID
By: Esther K. Choo and Scott Duke Kominers
With millions of people affected and at least $1 trillion of economic value at stake, long COVID is our next national health emergency.
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Keywords:
COVID;
COVID-19;
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Scientific Research;
Policy;
Health Policy;
Innovation;
Science;
Public Finance;
Public Health;
Health Disorders;
Health Care and Treatment;
Human Capital
Choo, Esther K., and Scott Duke Kominers. "We Need an Operation Warp Speed for Long COVID." Scientific American (website) (April 5, 2023).
- April, 2023
- Article
Reducing Information Barriers to Solar Adoption: Experimental Evidence from India
By: Meera Mahadevan, Robyn C. Meeks and Takashi Yamano
Off-grid solar technologies hold promise for unelectrified and low-quality electricity settings; however, their adoption remains low. Important barriers to adoption, such as incomplete information remain relatively unexplored in developing countries. In collaboration...
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Keywords:
Technology Adoption;
Renewable Energy;
Knowledge Sharing;
Developing Countries and Economies;
India
Mahadevan, Meera, Robyn C. Meeks, and Takashi Yamano. "Reducing Information Barriers to Solar Adoption: Experimental Evidence from India." Energy Economics 120 (April, 2023).
- February 2023
- Article
A Different Framework to Achieve Universal Coverage in the U.S.
By: Katherine Baicker, Amitabh Chandra and Mark Shepard
This JAMA Forum discusses alternative ways to achieve universal coverage in the US such as administrative simplification in the Affordable Care Act plans to increase enrollment, having a basic policy that would be available to everyone, and options for supplemental...
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Baicker, Katherine, Amitabh Chandra, and Mark Shepard. "A Different Framework to Achieve Universal Coverage in the U.S." e230187. JAMA Health Forum 4, no. 2 (February 2023).
- 2023
- Working Paper
Life After Death: A Field Experiment with Small Businesses on Information Frictions, Stigma, and Bankruptcy
By: Shai Benjamin Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Mitchell Hoffman and Benjamin Iverson
In a randomized control trial (RCT) with U.S. small businesses, we document that a large share of firms are not well-informed about bankruptcy. Many assume that bankruptcy necessarily entails the death of a business and do not know about Chapter 11 bankruptcy, where...
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Bernstein, Shai Benjamin, Emanuele Colonnelli, Mitchell Hoffman, and Benjamin Iverson. "Life After Death: A Field Experiment with Small Businesses on Information Frictions, Stigma, and Bankruptcy." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30933, February 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Leadership and the Value of Persistence
By: James J. Anton, Alan Jaske and Dennis Yao
Consider a leader’s decision whether to persist with an unsuccessful R&D project
or to terminate the project in favor of a new project with an uncertain value. How
does that decision affect the effort exerted by the manager assigned to the project? To
study this...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Achieving Universal Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: Addressing Market Failures or Providing a Social Floor?
By: Katherine Baicker, Amitabh Chandra and Mark Shepard
The United States spends substantially more on health care than most developed countries, yet leaves a greater share of the population uninsured. We suggest that incremental insurance expansions focused on addressing market failures will propagate inefficiencies and...
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Baicker, Katherine, Amitabh Chandra, and Mark Shepard. "Achieving Universal Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: Addressing Market Failures or Providing a Social Floor?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30854, January 2023.
- 2023
- Article
Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a...
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Keywords:
Causal Inference;
Heterogeneous Treatment Effects;
Precision Medicine;
Uplift Modeling;
Analytics and Data Science;
AI and Machine Learning
Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 242–256.
- 2023
- Working Paper
State Employment as a Strategy of Autocratic Control in China
By: Jaya Y. Wen
This paper presents evidence that autocrats use state-owned firms to strategically pacify social unrest via employment provision, a role that may contribute to their favorable treatment and persistence across settings. I use variation in a regional conflict between...
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Wen, Jaya Y. "State Employment as a Strategy of Autocratic Control in China." Working Paper, January 2023.