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- 2023
- Working Paper
An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits
By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the...
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Liang, Biyonka, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-057, March 2024.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits
By: Dae Woong Ham, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon and Martin Tingley
Multi-arm bandits are gaining popularity as they enable real-world sequential decision-making across application areas, including clinical trials, recommender systems, and online decision-making. Consequently, there is an increased desire to use the available...
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Ham, Dae Woong, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon, and Martin Tingley. "Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-056, March 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration Under Covariate Shift
By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo and Kris Ferreira
Problem definition: While artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms may perform well on data that are representative of the training set (inliers), they may err when extrapolating on non-representative data (outliers). These outliers often originate from covariate shift,...
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- January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
- Exercise
Travelogo: Understanding Customer Journeys
By: Eva Ascarza, Nicolas Padilla and Oded Netzer
In late May 2023, Sarah Merino, the newly appointed manager of the Customer Insights group at Travelogo—an online travel booking platform—initiates a comprehensive analysis of clickstream data to understand the varied behaviors and needs of their users. In preparation...
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Keywords:
Customer Relationship Management;
Analysis;
Analytics and Data Science;
Marketing Strategy;
Segmentation;
Consumer Behavior;
Travel Industry;
United States
Ascarza, Eva, Nicolas Padilla, and Oded Netzer. "Travelogo: Understanding Customer Journeys." Harvard Business School Exercise 524-044, January 2024. (Revised February 2024.)
- December 2023
- Article
What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data
By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability and stockouts to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020-2022 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in stockouts in nearly all sectors early in the...
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Keywords:
Prices;
Stockouts;
Inventories;
Supply Disruptions;
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Supply Chain;
Product;
Demand and Consumers
Cavallo, Alberto, and Oleksiy Kryvtsov. "What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data." Journal of International Economics 146 (December 2023).
- November–December 2023
- Article
Look the Part? The Role of Profile Pictures in Online Labor Markets
By: Isamar Troncoso and Lan Luo
Profile pictures are a key component of many freelancing platforms, a design choice that can impact hiring and matching outcomes. In this paper, we examine how appearance-based perceptions of a freelancer’s fit for the job (i.e., whether a freelancer "looks the part"...
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Keywords:
Freelancers;
Gig Workers;
Demographics;
Prejudice and Bias;
Selection and Staffing;
Jobs and Positions;
Analytics and Data Science
Troncoso, Isamar, and Lan Luo. "Look the Part? The Role of Profile Pictures in Online Labor Markets." Marketing Science 42, no. 6 (November–December 2023): 1080–1100.
- October 2023
- Article
Speedy Activists: Firm Response Time to Sociopolitical Events Influences Consumer Behavior
Organizations face growing pressure from their consumers and stakeholders to take public stances on sociopolitical issues. However, many are hesitant to do so lest they make missteps, promises they cannot keep, appear inauthentic, or alienate consumers, employees, or...
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Nam, Jimin, Maya Balakrishnan, Julian De Freitas, and Alison Wood Brooks. "Speedy Activists: Firm Response Time to Sociopolitical Events Influences Consumer Behavior." Special Issue on Consumer Insights from Text Analysis edited by Grant Packard, Sarah G. Moore, and Jonah Berger. Journal of Consumer Psychology 33, no. 4 (October 2023): 632–644.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Mapping Organizational-Level Networks Using Individual-Level Connections: Evidence from Online Professional Networks
By: Shelley Xin Li, Frank Nagle and Aner Zhou
Organization-level networks facilitate the flow of information and business activities in the
economy. Prior research relies solely on high-level connections to measure these networks. Therefore, to
understand the role of employee connections at all job levels in...
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Keywords:
Networks;
Value;
Social and Collaborative Networks;
Innovation and Invention;
Knowledge Sharing;
Employees;
Social Media
Li, Shelley Xin, Frank Nagle, and Aner Zhou. "Mapping Organizational-Level Networks Using Individual-Level Connections: Evidence from Online Professional Networks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-010, August 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Learning to Use: Stack Overflow and Technology Adoption
By: Daniel Jay Brown and Maria P. Roche
In this paper, we examine the potential impact of Q&A websites on the adoption of technologies.
Using data from Stack Overflow – one of the most popular Q&A websites worldwide
– and implementing an instrumental-variable approach, we find that users whose questions...
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Brown, Daniel Jay, and Maria P. Roche. "Learning to Use: Stack Overflow and Technology Adoption." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-001, July 2023.
- July 2023 (Revised July 2023)
- Background Note
Generative AI Value Chain
By: Andy Wu and Matt Higgins
Generative AI refers to a type of artificial intelligence (AI) that can create new content (e.g., text, image, or audio) in response to a prompt from a user. ChatGPT, Bard, and Claude are examples of text generating AIs, and DALL-E, Midjourney, and Stable Diffusion are...
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Keywords:
AI;
Artificial Intelligence;
Model;
Hardware;
Data Centers;
AI and Machine Learning;
Applications and Software;
Analytics and Data Science;
Value
Wu, Andy, and Matt Higgins. "Generative AI Value Chain." Harvard Business School Background Note 724-355, July 2023. (Revised July 2023.)
- July 2023
- Article
So, Who Likes You? Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment
By: Ravi Bapna, Edward McFowland III, Probal Mojumder, Jui Ramaprasad and Akhmed Umyarov
With one-third of marriages in the United States beginning online, online dating platforms have become important curators of the modern social fabric. Prior work on online dating has elicited two critical frictions in the heterosexual dating market. Women, governed by...
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Keywords:
Online Dating;
Internet and the Web;
Analytics and Data Science;
Gender;
Emotions;
Social and Collaborative Networks
Bapna, Ravi, Edward McFowland III, Probal Mojumder, Jui Ramaprasad, and Akhmed Umyarov. "So, Who Likes You? Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment." Management Science 69, no. 7 (July 2023): 3939–3957.
- June 2023
- Case
The Business of Campaigns
By: Vincent Pons and Mel Martin
In 2022, the U.S. Congress examined the Democracy Is Strengthened by Casting Light on Spending in Elections (DISCLOSE) Act, the latest in a long series of campaign finance reforms. According to its authors, the law would be the “most consequential overhaul of federal...
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Keywords:
Political Elections;
Government Legislation;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Business and Government Relations;
United States
Pons, Vincent, and Mel Martin. "The Business of Campaigns." Harvard Business School Case 723-039, June 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to...
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Keywords:
Performance Evaluation;
Research and Development;
Analytics and Data Science;
Consumer Behavior
Ham, Dae Woong, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley, and Iavor Bojinov. "Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-070, May 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Setting Gendered Expectations? Recruiter Outreach Bias in Online Tech Training Programs
By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Karim R. Lakhani and Roberto Fernandez
Competence development in digital technologies, analytics, and artificial intelligence is increasingly important to all types of organizations and their workforce. Universities and corporations are investing heavily in developing training programs, at all tenure...
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Keywords:
STEM;
Selection and Staffing;
Gender;
Prejudice and Bias;
Training;
Equality and Inequality;
Competency and Skills
Lane, Jacqueline N., Karim R. Lakhani, and Roberto Fernandez. "Setting Gendered Expectations? Recruiter Outreach Bias in Online Tech Training Programs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-066, April 2023. (Accepted by Organization Science.)
- May–June 2023
- Article
Need for Speed: The Impact of In-Process Delays on Customer Behavior in Online Retail
By: Santiago Gallino, Nil Karacaoglu and Antonio Moreno
The impact of delays has been widely studied in various offline services. The focus of this study is online services, and we explore the impact of in-process delays—measured by website speed—on customer behavior. We leverage novel retail and website speed data to...
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Keywords:
Online Retail;
Quasi-experiments;
Abandonment;
Synthetic Control;
E-commerce;
Internet and the Web;
Consumer Behavior;
Policy;
Retail Industry
Gallino, Santiago, Nil Karacaoglu, and Antonio Moreno. "Need for Speed: The Impact of In-Process Delays on Customer Behavior in Online Retail." Operations Research 71, no. 3 (May–June 2023): 876–894.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Corporate Website-based Measures of Firms' Value Drivers
By: Wei Cai, Dennis Campbell and Patrick Ferguson
We develop and validate new text-based measures of firms’ financial and non-financial value drivers. Using the Wayback Machine to access public US firms’ archived websites from 1995-2020, we scrape text from corporate homepages. We use Kaplan and Norton’s (1992)...
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Cai, Wei, Dennis Campbell, and Patrick Ferguson. "Corporate Website-based Measures of Firms' Value Drivers." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 4413808, April 2023.
- January 23, 2023
- Article
Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines
By: Susan Athey, Kristen Grabarz, Michael Luca and Nils Wernerfelt
Public health organizations increasingly use social media advertising campaigns in pursuit of public health goals. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of about $40 million of social media advertisements that were run and experimentally tested on Facebook and...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Public Health;
Vaccines;
Social Media;
Advertising;
Power and Influence;
Health Care and Treatment
Athey, Susan, Kristen Grabarz, Michael Luca, and Nils Wernerfelt. "Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines." e2208110120. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120, no. 5 (January 23, 2023).
- 2022
- Working Paper
Getting on the Map: The Impact of Online Listings on Business Performance
By: Michael Luca, Abhishek Nagaraj and Gauri Subramani
We evaluate the extent to which small businesses maintain an online presence, looking at restaurant listings on a major online review platform. While the majority of restaurants have an online presence, we find that roughly 18 percent in our sample have no presence as...
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Keywords:
Small Business;
Internet and the Web;
Revenue;
Digital Marketing;
Food and Beverage Industry
Luca, Michael, Abhishek Nagaraj, and Gauri Subramani. "Getting on the Map: The Impact of Online Listings on Business Performance." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-031, December 2022.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Improving Human-Algorithm Collaboration: Causes and Mitigation of Over- and Under-Adherence
By: Maya Balakrishnan, Kris Ferreira and Jordan Tong
Even if algorithms make better predictions than humans on average, humans may sometimes have private information
which an algorithm does not have access to that can improve performance. How can we help humans effectively use
and adjust recommendations made by...
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Keywords:
Cognitive Biases;
Algorithm Transparency;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Behavior;
AI and Machine Learning;
Analytics and Data Science;
Cognition and Thinking
Balakrishnan, Maya, Kris Ferreira, and Jordan Tong. "Improving Human-Algorithm Collaboration: Causes and Mitigation of Over- and Under-Adherence." Working Paper, February 2024.
- 2022
- Article
How Does Working from Home during COVID-19 Affect What Managers Do? Evidence from Time-Use Studies
By: Thomaz Teodorovicz, Raffaella Sadun, Andrew L. Kun and Orit Shaer
We assess how the sudden and widespread shift to working from home during the pandemic impacted how managers allocate time throughout their working day. We analyze the results from an online time-use survey with data on 1,192 knowledge workers (out of which 973 are...
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Keywords:
Time-use;
Working-from-home;
COVID;
Managers;
Knowledge Workers;
Health Pandemics;
Time Management
Teodorovicz, Thomaz, Raffaella Sadun, Andrew L. Kun, and Orit Shaer. "How Does Working from Home during COVID-19 Affect What Managers Do? Evidence from Time-Use Studies." Human-Computer Interaction 37, no. 6 (2022): 532–557.