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- 2023
- Working Paper
An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits
By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the...
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Liang, Biyonka, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-057, March 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Choosing and Using Information in Evaluation Decisions
By: Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Scott Kostyshak and Perihan O. Saygin
Most studies of gender discrimination consider how male versus female candidates are assessed given otherwise identical information about them. But, in many settings of interest, evaluators have a choice about how much information to acquire about a candidate before...
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- March 2024
- Article
Human Capital Affects Religious Identity: Causal Evidence from Kenya
By: Livia Alfonsi, Michal Bauer, Julie Chytilová and Edward Miguel
We study how human capital and economic conditions causally affect the choice of religious denomination. We utilize a longitudinal dataset monitoring the religious history of more than 5,000 Kenyans over 20 years, in tandem with a randomized experiment (deworming) that...
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Alfonsi, Livia, Michal Bauer, Julie Chytilová, and Edward Miguel. "Human Capital Affects Religious Identity: Causal Evidence from Kenya." Art. 103215. Journal of Development Economics 167 (March 2024).
- February 2024
- Case
Horizon Quantum Computing
By: Paul A. Gompers and Billy Chan
In 2023, the Singapore-based startup company Horizon Quantum Computing was on the cusp of fast expansion and the founder faced the challenge to decide where to open the second office outside Singapore. To make a choice from the list of 10 countries, the founder had to...
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- February 2024
- Case
ReSpo.Vision: The Kickstart of an AI Sports Revolution
By: Paul A. Gompers, Elena Corsi and Nikolina Jonsson
This case study explores the growth journey of Polish computer vision sports start-up ReSpo.Vision in an emerging entrepreneurial ecosystem. By providing 3D data and analysis to soccer clubs, ReSpo.Vision achieved significant milestones with a €1 million seed round, an...
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Keywords:
Business Startups;
Business Plan;
Experience and Expertise;
Talent and Talent Management;
Decisions;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Entrepreneurship;
Venture Capital;
AI and Machine Learning;
Analytics and Data Science;
Applications and Software;
Sports Industry;
Technology Industry;
Poland;
Europe
- 2023
- Working Paper
'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence
By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then...
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Graeber, Thomas, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg, and Charles Sprenger. "'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-046, January 2024.
- February 2024
- Article
Come Together: Firm Boundaries and Delegation
By: Laura Alfaro, Nick Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew F. Newman, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
We develop an incomplete-contracts model to jointly study firm boundaries and the allocation of decision rights within them. Integration has an option value: it gives firm owners authority to delegate or centralize decision rights, depending on who can best solve...
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Alfaro, Laura, Nick Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew F. Newman, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Come Together: Firm Boundaries and Delegation." Journal of the European Economic Association 22, no. 1 (February 2024): 34–72.
- February 2024
- Case
FIGS: Scrubbing the Status Quo
By: Jeffrey F. Rayport and Nicole Tempest Keller
In October 2023, FIGS had revolutionized the medical scrubs industry with its fashionable and functional designs, but the venture was at a critical juncture. The digitally native vertical brand (DNVB) had gone public in a successful IPO in 2021 and reached $500 million...
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- 2024
- Working Paper
Platform Information Provision and Consumer Search: A Field Experiment
By: Lu Fang, Yanyou Chen, Chiara Farronato, Zhe Yuan and Yitong Wang
Despite substantial efforts to help consumers search in more intuitive ways, text search remains the predominant tool for product discovery online. In this paper, we explore the effects of visual and textual cues for search refinement on consumer search and purchasing...
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Keywords:
Consumer Behavior;
E-commerce;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Learning;
Internet and the Web
Fang, Lu, Yanyou Chen, Chiara Farronato, Zhe Yuan, and Yitong Wang. "Platform Information Provision and Consumer Search: A Field Experiment." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32099, February 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration Under Covariate Shift
By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo and Kris Ferreira
Problem definition: While artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms may perform well on data that are representative of the training set (inliers), they may err when extrapolating on non-representative data (outliers). These outliers often originate from covariate shift,...
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- January 2024
- Case
Colbún and Chile’s Energy Transition
By: Forest Reinhardt, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
In May 2023, Colbún, Chile’s second-largest electricity generator, plans capacity expansions using renewable energy and storage. This strategy supports Chile’s commitment to carbon neutrality (also known as net zero emissions) by 2050. The case delves into the...
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Reinhardt, Forest, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago, and Mariana Cal. "Colbún and Chile’s Energy Transition." Harvard Business School Case 724-026, January 2024.
- January 2024
- Case
Pioneer Natural Resources: Enhancing the Capital Return Strategy with Variable Dividends
In February 2021, Scott Sheffield, the CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources (an independent oil and gas company based in Texas), was considering the possibility of enhancing the firm’s capital return strategy by introducing a variable dividend tied to cash flows in...
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- 2024
- Working Paper
Bootstrap Diagnostics for Irregular Estimators
By: Isaiah Andrews and Jesse M. Shapiro
Empirical researchers frequently rely on normal approximations in order to summarize and communicate uncertainty about their findings to their scientific audience. When such approximations are unreliable, they can lead the audience to make misguided decisions. We...
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Andrews, Isaiah, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Bootstrap Diagnostics for Irregular Estimators." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32038, January 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Employer-Based Short-Term Savings Accounts
By: Sarah Holmes Berk, John Beshears, Jay Garg, James J. Choi and David Laibson
We study the introduction of a choice architecture design intended to increase short-term savings among employees at five U.K. firms. Employees were offered the opportunity to opt into a payroll deduction program that auto-deposits funds from each paycheck into a...
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Berk, Sarah Holmes, John Beshears, Jay Garg, James J. Choi, and David Laibson. "Employer-Based Short-Term Savings Accounts." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32074, January 2024.
- December 2023
- Case
Francis Ngannou
By: Anita Elberse
In May 2023, professional fighter Francis Ngannou is facing a choice: re-sign with the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), the world’s premier mixed-martial-arts (MMA) organization, or opt for a contract with the Professional Fighters League (PFL), a growing but...
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- December 2023 (Revised December 2023)
- Case
Research In Motion: Launching and Scaling the World's First Smartphone Empire (A)
By: Tatiana Sandino and Samuel Grad
In 2005, Research In Motion’s (RIM) BlackBerry smartphone was a sensation. After its launch in 1999, the groundbreaking BlackBerry had captured the hearts and minds of corporate America through its secure wireless email service. The device was so addictive and...
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Keywords:
Business Growth and Maturation;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Mobile and Wireless Technology;
Innovation and Management;
Technological Innovation;
Business or Company Management;
Management Style;
Product Development;
Managerial Roles;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Technology Industry;
United States;
Canada
- 2023
- Working Paper
Complexity and Hyperbolic Discounting
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
A large literature shows that people discount financial rewards hyperbolically instead of exponentially. While discounting of money has been questioned as a measure of time preferences, it continues to be highly relevant in empirical practice and predicts a wide range...
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Keywords:
Hyperbolic Discounting;
Present Bias;
Bounded Rationality;
Cognitive Uncertainty;
Behavioral Finance
Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Hyperbolic Discounting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-048, February 2024.
- December 2023
- Article
Save More Today or Tomorrow: The Role of Urgency in Precommitment Design
By: Joseph Reiff, Hengchen Dai, John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman and Shlomo Benartzi
To encourage farsighted behaviors, past research suggests that marketers may be wise to invite consumers to pre-commit to adopt them “later.” However, the authors propose that people will draw different inferences from different types of pre-commitment offers, and that...
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Reiff, Joseph, Hengchen Dai, John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, and Shlomo Benartzi. "Save More Today or Tomorrow: The Role of Urgency in Precommitment Design." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 60, no. 6 (December 2023): 1095–1113.
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Uneven Impact of Generative AI on Entrepreneurial Performance
By: Nicholas G. Otis, Rowan Clarke, Solène Delecourt, David Holtz and Rembrand Koning
There is a growing belief that scalable and low-cost AI assistance can improve firm
decision-making and economic performance. However, running a business involves
a myriad of open-ended problems, making it hard to generalize from recent studies
showing that...
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Keywords:
AI and Machine Learning;
Performance Improvement;
Small Business;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Kenya
Otis, Nicholas G., Rowan Clarke, Solène Delecourt, David Holtz, and Rembrand Koning. "The Uneven Impact of Generative AI on Entrepreneurial Performance." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-042, December 2023.
- November 2023 (Revised November 2023)
- Background Note
Life Cycle Assessment: An Overview
By: Willy C. Shih, Michael W. Toffel and Kelsey Carter
Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a holistic approach to quantifying the environmental impacts—including resources consumed and wastes produced—associated with the entire life cycle of a product, from the production or extraction of the raw materials used in its creation,...
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