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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
      We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries' supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence...  View Details
      Keywords: Swap Spreads; Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates; Financial Crisis; Financial Markets
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      Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Book

      Healthy Buildings: How Indoor Spaces Can Make You Sick—or Keep You Well

      By: Joseph G. Allen and John D. Macomber
      For too long we’ve designed buildings that haven’t focused on the people inside—their health, their ability to work effectively, and what that means for the bottom line. An authoritative introduction to a movement whose vital importance is now all too clear, Healthy...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Buildings and Facilities; Health; Health Pandemics; Safety
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      Allen, Joseph G., and John D. Macomber. Healthy Buildings: How Indoor Spaces Can Make You Sick—or Keep You Well. Revised and updated edition, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges...  View Details
      Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30356, August 2022.
      • July 2022 (Revised September 2022)
      • Case

      Birla Carbon Egypt: Building Soft Power in a Foreign Country

      By: Jeremy Friedman and Malini Sen
      Birla Carbon, a flagship business of the nearly $60-billion global conglomerate and India-headquartered Aditya Birla Group (ABG), is one of the world's top manufacturers and suppliers of high-quality carbon black. The largest among its 16 manufacturing plants is Birla...  View Details
      Keywords: Acquisition; Family Business; Disruption; Transformation; Diversity; Trade; Energy; Values and Beliefs; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Global Strategy; Government and Politics; Private Ownership; Civil Society or Community; Risk and Uncertainty; Value Creation; Industrial Products Industry; Rubber Industry; Egypt; Africa; India; Asia; Atlanta; United States
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      Friedman, Jeremy, and Malini Sen. "Birla Carbon Egypt: Building Soft Power in a Foreign Country." Harvard Business School Case 723-003, July 2022. (Revised September 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Dynamic Pricing and Demand Volatility: Evidence from Restaurant Food Delivery

      By: Alexander J. MacKay, Dennis Svartbäck and Anders G. Ekholm
      Pricing technology that allows firms to rapidly adjust prices has two potential benefits. Prices can respond more rapidly to demand shocks, leading to higher revenues. On the other hand, time-varying prices can be used to smooth out demand across periods, reducing...  View Details
      Keywords: Pricing Algorithms; Dynamic Pricing; Demand Volatility; Delivery Services
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      MacKay, Alexander J., Dennis Svartbäck, and Anders G. Ekholm. "Dynamic Pricing and Demand Volatility: Evidence from Restaurant Food Delivery." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-007, July 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Regulatory Treatment of Changes in Fair Value and the Composition of Banks' Investment Portfolios

      By: Michael Iselin, Jung Koo Kang and Joshua Madsen
      In their implementation of Basel III, U.S. bank regulators are again including changes in the fair value of available-for-sale (AFS) debt securities in Tier 1 capital, but only for the largest U.S. banks. This paper investigates a potential impact of expanding this...  View Details
      Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; SFAS 115; Basel III; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banks and Banking; Debt Securities; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Portfolio; Decision Making; Banking Industry; United States
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      Iselin, Michael, Jung Koo Kang, and Joshua Madsen. "Regulatory Treatment of Changes in Fair Value and the Composition of Banks' Investment Portfolios." Journal of Financial Reporting 7, no. 1 (2022): 123–143.
      • May 2022
      • Case

      From GOP to NFT: Anthony Scaramucci and the Launch of Flatter NFT

      By: Lauren Cohen, Richard Ryffel and Grace Headinger
      Anthony Scaramucci, Managing Director of SkyBridge Capital, considered whether he should officially greenlight the launch of SkyBridge’s own NFT platform — Flatter NFT. He had led the investment firm to push first into Bitcoin and then Ethereum to make SkyBridge a...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Startup; Fintech; Technology; Cryptocurrency; Web3; Business Startups; Volatility; Decision Making; Entertainment; Entrepreneurship; Investment; Strategic Planning; Adoption; Competitive Advantage; Technology Adoption; Finance; Currency; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; New York (city, NY)
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      Cohen, Lauren, Richard Ryffel, and Grace Headinger. "From GOP to NFT: Anthony Scaramucci and the Launch of Flatter NFT." Harvard Business School Case 222-085, May 2022.
      • March 2022 (Revised June 2022)
      • Case

      El Salvador: Launching Bitcoin as Legal Tender

      By: Laura Alfaro, Carla Larangeira and Ruth Costas
      In June 2021, Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, surprised the world with the announcement that the country would adopt bitcoin as legal tender, becoming the first nation to do so. Bitcoin was mostly used for trading and had one of the most volatile track records...  View Details
      Keywords: Bitcoin; Cryptocurrency; Currency; Financial Strategy; Economic Growth; Governance; Macroeconomics; Assets; Latin America; El Salvador
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      Alfaro, Laura, Carla Larangeira, and Ruth Costas. "El Salvador: Launching Bitcoin as Legal Tender." Harvard Business School Case 322-055, March 2022. (Revised June 2022.)
      • March 2022 (Revised August 2022)
      • Case

      Hometown Foods: Changing Price Amid Inflation

      By: Julian De Freitas, Jeremy Yang and Das Narayandas
      During the early part of the 2021 Covid-19 pandemic, Hometown Foods, a large seller of flour-based products, thrived as consumers hoarded baked goods and took up baking to pass the time and find comfort. Then, amid growing shortages in commodities, a vaccine arrived,...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Consumer Behavior; Supply Chain; Inflation and Deflation; Spending; Price Bubble; Price; Volatility; Food and Beverage Industry
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      De Freitas, Julian, Jeremy Yang, and Das Narayandas. "Hometown Foods: Changing Price Amid Inflation." Harvard Business School Case 522-087, March 2022. (Revised August 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?

      By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon
      We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...  View Details
      Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy; Newspapers
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      Baker, Scott R., Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Marco Sammon. "What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?" Working Paper, February 2022.
      • December 2021
      • Case

      Grace Capital

      By: Sara Fleiss, Robin Greenwood, Eren Kuzucu and Denise Han
      In March 2020, the global pandemic was delivering a dose of volatility to the U.S. economy. Catherine Faddis, the CIO of Grace Capital, a Boston-based long-only equity manager, analyzed movements in her portfolio while eyeing previously shelved opportunities to invest...  View Details
      Keywords: Preferred Stock; COVID-19 Pandemic; Economy; Health Pandemics; Volatility; Entrepreneurship; Finance; Investment; Strategy; Decision Making; Investment Portfolio; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Fleiss, Sara, Robin Greenwood, Eren Kuzucu, and Denise Han. "Grace Capital." Harvard Business School Case 222-052, December 2021.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

      By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
      A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit...  View Details
      Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
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      Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design

      By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao
      We examine how lenders design contracts when borrowers are exposed to volatile transitory or permanent cash flow shocks. We find that volatile transitory shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that can enable firms to...  View Details
      Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks
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      Ma, Le, Anywhere Sikochi, and Yajun Xiao. "Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-026, October 2021. (Revised April 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Customer Churn and Intangible Capital

      By: Scott R. Baker, Brian Baugh and Marco Sammon
      Intangible capital is a crucial and growing piece of firms’ capital structure and helps to explain long run trends in concentration and markups. We develop new firm level metrics regarding a key component of intangible capital—customer churn—using a class of household...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Base; Transaction Data; Customer Churn; Intangible Capital; Capital; Capital Structure; Customers; Corporate Finance
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      Baker, Scott R., Brian Baugh, and Marco Sammon. "Customer Churn and Intangible Capital." Working Paper, October 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Price Effects of Innovative Security Design

      By: Boris Vallée, Gordon Liao and Claire Célérier
      This paper investigates the effects of the issuance of retail products with non-linear payoffs on option prices. For a given underlying asset, when the outstanding volume of products embedding a short-put position increases, implied volatility at the corresponding...  View Details
      Keywords: Security Design; Dividend; Options; Structured Products; Market Segmentation; Financial Instruments; Design; Volatility; Markets; Segmentation
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      Vallée, Boris, Gordon Liao, and Claire Célérier. "The Price Effects of Innovative Security Design." Working Paper, August 2021.
      • March 2021
      • Supplement

      Snapp: Scaling Under Sanctions in Iran (B)

      By: Meg Rithmire and Gamze Yucaoglu
      The case opens in November 2020 as Eyad Alkassar and Mahmoud Fouz, co-founders of Iran’s first and leading ride-hailing platform, Snapp, eagerly await the results of the U.S. presidential elections.
      The case takes us through the challenging times between...  View Details
      Keywords: Sanctions; Change Management; Disruption; Volatility; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Government and Politics; International Relations; National Security; Crisis Management; Risk Management; Health Pandemics; Transportation Industry; Middle East; Iran
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      Rithmire, Meg, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Snapp: Scaling Under Sanctions in Iran (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 721-036, March 2021.
      • Article

      CDS Trading and Nonrelationship Lending Dynamics

      By: Jung Koo Kang, Christopher Williams and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman
      We investigate how credit default swaps (CDSs) affect lenders’ incentives to initiate new lending relationships. We predict that CDSs reduce adverse selection that nonrelationship lead arrangers face when competing for loans. Consistently, we find that a loan is...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Default Swaps; CDS Market; Non-relationship Lending; Debt Contracts; Adverse Selection; Lending Monitoring; Cross-selling
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      Kang, Jung Koo, Christopher Williams, and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman. "CDS Trading and Nonrelationship Lending Dynamics." Review of Accounting Studies 26, no. 1 (March 2021): 258–292.
      • January 2021 (Revised July 2022)
      • Case

      Snapp: Scaling Under Sanctions in Iran (A)

      By: Meg Rithmire and Gamze Yucaoglu
      The case opens in November 2019 as Eyad Alkassar and Mahmoud Fouz, co-founders of Iran’s first and leading ride-hailing platform, Snapp, find out about Apple’s and Google’s decisions to remove all Iranian apps from their respective application stores.
      The case...  View Details
      Keywords: Sanctions; Change Management; Disruption; Volatility; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Government and Politics; International Relations; National Security; Risk Management; Crisis Management; Transportation Industry; Iran; Middle East
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      Rithmire, Meg, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Snapp: Scaling Under Sanctions in Iran (A)." Harvard Business School Case 721-020, January 2021. (Revised July 2022.)
      • Article

      Healthy Buildings in 2070

      By: John D. Macomber and Joseph G. Allen
      Fifty years seems a very long time in the future for most industries. Not so in buildings and real estate; built structures routinely last decades if not hundreds of years, as long as they are economically competitive. Any discussion of the 50-year future has to...  View Details
      Keywords: Health & Wellness; Real Estate; Architectural Innovation; Public Health; Health; Buildings and Facilities; Well-being
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      Macomber, John D., and Joseph G. Allen. "Healthy Buildings in 2070." The Bridge 50, no. S (Winter 2020): 11–14. (Special 50th Anniversary Issue edited by Ronald M. Latanision.)
      • Article

      The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19

      By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon and Tasaneeya Viratyosin
      No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text-based methods to develop these points with...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Market; Health Pandemics; Governance; Policy; Financial Markets
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      Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon, and Tasaneeya Viratyosin. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19." Review of Asset Pricing Studies 10, no. 4 (December 2020): 742–758.
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