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  • April 12, 2023
  • Article

Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World
By: Das Narayandas and Arijit Sengupta
Why are some firms better and faster than others at adapting their use of customer data to respond to changing or uncertain marketing conditions? A common thread across faster-acting firms is the use of AI models to predict outcomes at various stages of the customer...  View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Competitive Advantage
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries' supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence...  View Details
Keywords: Swap Spreads; Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates; Financial Crisis; Financial Markets
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  • 2022
  • Book

Healthy Buildings: How Indoor Spaces Can Make You Sick—or Keep You Well
By: Joseph G. Allen and John D. Macomber
For too long we’ve designed buildings that haven’t focused on the people inside—their health, their ability to work effectively, and what that means for the bottom line. An authoritative introduction to a movement whose vital importance is now all too clear, Healthy...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Buildings and Facilities; Health; Health Pandemics; Safety
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges...  View Details
Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology
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  • July 2022 (Revised September 2022)
  • Case

Birla Carbon Egypt: Building Soft Power in a Foreign Country
By: Jeremy Friedman and Malini Sen
Birla Carbon, a flagship business of the nearly $60-billion global conglomerate and India-headquartered Aditya Birla Group (ABG), is one of the world's top manufacturers and suppliers of high-quality carbon black. The largest among its 16 manufacturing plants is Birla...  View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Family Business; Disruption; Transformation; Diversity; Trade; Energy; Values and Beliefs; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Global Strategy; Government and Politics; Private Ownership; Civil Society or Community; Risk and Uncertainty; Value Creation; Industrial Products Industry; Rubber Industry; Egypt; Africa; India; Asia; Atlanta; United States
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Dynamic Pricing and Demand Volatility: Evidence from Restaurant Food Delivery
By: Alexander J. MacKay, Dennis Svartbäck and Anders G. Ekholm
Pricing technology that allows firms to rapidly adjust prices has two potential benefits. Prices can respond more rapidly to demand shocks, leading to higher revenues. On the other hand, time-varying prices can be used to smooth out demand across periods, reducing...  View Details
Keywords: Price; Consumer Behavior; Applications and Software; Volatility
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  • 2022
  • Article

Regulatory Treatment of Changes in Fair Value and the Composition of Banks' Investment Portfolios
By: Michael Iselin, Jung Koo Kang and Joshua Madsen
In their implementation of Basel III, U.S. bank regulators are again including changes in the fair value of available-for-sale (AFS) debt securities in Tier 1 capital, but only for the largest U.S. banks. This paper investigates a potential impact of expanding this...  View Details
Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; SFAS 115; Basel III; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banks and Banking; Debt Securities; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Portfolio; Decision Making; Banking Industry; United States
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  • May 2022
  • Case

From GOP to NFT: Anthony Scaramucci and the Launch of Flatter NFT
By: Lauren Cohen, Richard Ryffel and Grace Headinger
Anthony Scaramucci, Managing Director of SkyBridge Capital, considered whether he should officially greenlight the launch of SkyBridge’s own NFT platform — Flatter NFT. He had led the investment firm to push first into Bitcoin and then Ethereum to make SkyBridge a...  View Details
Keywords: Business Startup; Fintech; Technology; Cryptocurrency; Web3; Business Startups; Volatility; Decision Making; Entertainment; Entrepreneurship; Investment; Strategic Planning; Adoption; Competitive Advantage; Technology Adoption; Finance; Currency; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; New York (city, NY)
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  • March 2022 (Revised June 2022)
  • Case

El Salvador: Launching Bitcoin as Legal Tender
By: Laura Alfaro, Carla Larangeira and Ruth Costas
In June 2021, Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, surprised the world with the announcement that the country would adopt bitcoin as legal tender, becoming the first nation to do so. Bitcoin was mostly used for trading and had one of the most volatile track records...  View Details
Keywords: Bitcoin; Cryptocurrency; Currency; Financial Strategy; Economic Growth; Governance; Macroeconomics; Assets; Latin America; El Salvador
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  • March 2022 (Revised April 2023)
  • Case

Hometown Foods: Changing Price Amid Inflation
By: Julian De Freitas, Jeremy Yang and Das Narayandas
During the early part of the 2021 Covid-19 pandemic, Hometown Foods, a large seller of flour-based products, thrived as consumers hoarded baked goods and took up baking to pass the time and find comfort. Then, amid growing shortages in commodities, a vaccine arrived,...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Consumer Behavior; Supply Chain; Inflation and Deflation; Spending; Price Bubble; Price; Volatility; Food and Beverage Industry
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?
By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon
We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...  View Details
Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy; Newspapers
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  • December 2021
  • Case

Grace Capital
By: Sara Fleiss, Robin Greenwood, Eren Kuzucu and Denise Han
In March 2020, the global pandemic was delivering a dose of volatility to the U.S. economy. Catherine Faddis, the CIO of Grace Capital, a Boston-based long-only equity manager, analyzed movements in her portfolio while eyeing previously shelved opportunities to invest...  View Details
Keywords: Preferred Stock; COVID-19 Pandemic; Economy; Health Pandemics; Volatility; Entrepreneurship; Finance; Investment; Strategy; Decision Making; Investment Portfolio; Financial Services Industry; United States
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  • December 2021
  • Article

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit...  View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design
By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao
We examine how lenders design contracts when borrowers are exposed to volatile transitory or permanent cash flow shocks. We find that volatile transitory shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that can enable firms to...  View Details
Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Customer Churn and Intangible Capital
By: Scott R. Baker, Brian Baugh and Marco Sammon
Intangible capital is a crucial and growing piece of firms’ capital structure and helps to explain long run trends in concentration and markups. We develop new firm level metrics regarding a key component of intangible capital—customer churn—using a class of household...  View Details
Keywords: Customer Base; Transaction Data; Customer Churn; Intangible Capital; Capital; Capital Structure; Customers; Corporate Finance
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

The Price Effects of Innovative Security Design
By: Boris Vallée, Gordon Liao and Claire Célérier
This paper investigates the effects of the issuance of retail products with non-linear payoffs on option prices. For a given underlying asset, when the outstanding volume of products embedding a short-put position increases, implied volatility at the corresponding...  View Details
Keywords: Security Design; Dividend; Options; Structured Products; Market Segmentation; Financial Instruments; Design; Volatility; Markets; Segmentation
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  • March 2021
  • Supplement

Snapp: Scaling Under Sanctions in Iran (B)
By: Meg Rithmire and Gamze Yucaoglu
The case opens in November 2020 as Eyad Alkassar and Mahmoud Fouz, co-founders of Iran’s first and leading ride-hailing platform, Snapp, eagerly await the results of the U.S. presidential elections.
The case takes us through the challenging times between...  View Details
Keywords: Sanctions; Change Management; Disruption; Volatility; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Government and Politics; International Relations; National Security; Crisis Management; Risk Management; Health Pandemics; Transportation Industry; Middle East; Iran
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  • Article

CDS Trading and Nonrelationship Lending Dynamics
By: Jung Koo Kang, Christopher Williams and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman
We investigate how credit default swaps (CDSs) affect lenders’ incentives to initiate new lending relationships. We predict that CDSs reduce adverse selection that nonrelationship lead arrangers face when competing for loans. Consistently, we find that a loan is...  View Details
Keywords: Credit Default Swaps; CDS Market; Non-relationship Lending; Debt Contracts; Adverse Selection; Lending Monitoring; Cross-selling
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  • January 2021 (Revised July 2022)
  • Case

Snapp: Scaling Under Sanctions in Iran (A)
By: Meg Rithmire and Gamze Yucaoglu
The case opens in November 2019 as Eyad Alkassar and Mahmoud Fouz, co-founders of Iran’s first and leading ride-hailing platform, Snapp, find out about Apple’s and Google’s decisions to remove all Iranian apps from their respective application stores.
The case...  View Details
Keywords: Sanctions; Change Management; Disruption; Volatility; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Government and Politics; International Relations; National Security; Risk Management; Crisis Management; Transportation Industry; Iran; Middle East
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  • Article

Healthy Buildings in 2070
By: John D. Macomber and Joseph G. Allen
Fifty years seems a very long time in the future for most industries. Not so in buildings and real estate; built structures routinely last decades if not hundreds of years, as long as they are economically competitive. Any discussion of the 50-year future has to...  View Details
Keywords: Health ＆ Wellness; Real Estate; Architectural Innovation; Public Health; Health; Buildings and Facilities; Well-being
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