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  • All HBS Web  (40)
    • Faculty Publications  (18)

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    • All HBS Web  (40)
      • Faculty Publications  (18)

      Uncertainty Aversion Remove Uncertainty Aversion →

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      • November 2022
      • Article

      Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains

      By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton
      Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money, reputation). In...  View Details
      Keywords: Opportunities; Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Success; Perception
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      Prinsloo, Emily, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John, and Michael I. Norton. "Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains." Psychological Science 33, no. 11 (November 2022): 1857–1866.
      • February 2020
      • Article

      Being 'Good' or 'Good Enough': Prosocial Risk and the Structure of Moral Self-regard

      By: Julian Zlatev, Daniella M. Kupor, Kristin Laurin and Dale T. Miller
      The motivation to feel moral powerfully guides people’s prosocial behavior. We propose that people’s efforts to preserve their moral self-regard conform to a moral threshold model. This model predicts that people are primarily concerned with whether their...  View Details
      Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Perception
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      Zlatev, Julian, Daniella M. Kupor, Kristin Laurin, and Dale T. Miller. "Being 'Good' or 'Good Enough': Prosocial Risk and the Structure of Moral Self-regard." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 118, no. 2 (February 2020): 242–253.
      • 2010
      • Article

      Fretting About Modest Risks Is a Mistake

      By: Matthew Rabin and Max Bazerman
      Managers often engage in risk-averse behavior, and economists, decision analysts, and managers treat risk aversion as a preference. In many cases, acting in a risk-averse manner is a mistake, but managers can correct this mistake with greater reflection. This article...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Biases; Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Making
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      Rabin, Matthew, and Max Bazerman. "Fretting About Modest Risks Is a Mistake." California Management Review 61, no. 3 (May 2019): 34–48.
      • Article

      Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty

      By: David P. Daniels and Julian Zlatev
      Biases influence important decisions, but little is known about whether and how individuals try to exploit others’ biases in strategic interactions. Choice architects—that is, people who present choices to others—must often decide between presenting choice sets with...  View Details
      Keywords: Nudges; Biases; Strategic Decision Making; Social Influence; Choice Architects; Choice Architecture; Reflection Effect; Certainty Effect; Loss Aversion; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Power and Influence
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      Daniels, David P., and Julian Zlatev. "Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 151 (March 2019): 132–149.
      • Article

      Excusing Selfishness in Charitable Giving: The Role of Risk

      By: Christine L. Exley
      Decisions involving charitable giving often occur under the shadow of risk. A common finding is that potential donors give less when there is greater risk that their donation will have less impact. While this behavior could be fully rationalized by standard economic...  View Details
      Keywords: Charitable Giving; Prosocial Behavior; Altruism; Risk Preferences; Risk and Uncertainty; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Behavior
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      Exley, Christine L. "Excusing Selfishness in Charitable Giving: The Role of Risk." Review of Economic Studies 83, no. 2 (April 2016): 587–628.
      • 2003
      • Working Paper

      The Risk Tolerance of International Investors

      By: Kenneth A. Froot and Paul G. J. O'Connell
      Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance; Asset Pricing; Investment
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      Froot, Kenneth A., and Paul G. J. O'Connell. "The Risk Tolerance of International Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 04-034, January 2004. (Also NBER Working Paper No. 10157, December 2003.)
      • May 2000
      • Article

      Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Peter Klibanoff and Emre Ozdenoren
      This paper provides an axiomatic foundation for a maxmin expected utility over a set of priors (MMEU) decision rule in an environment where the elements of choice are Savage acts. This characterization complements the original axiomatizations of MMEU developed in a...  View Details
      Keywords: Uncertainty Aversion; Ambiguity; Expected Utility; Set Of Priors; Knightian Uncertainty; Decision Making; Game Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Mathematical Methods
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, Peter Klibanoff, and Emre Ozdenoren. "Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors." Journal of Economic Theory 92, no. 1 (May 2000): 35–65.
      • March 1995
      • Article

      Tests of Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market

      By: C. Engel, J. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot and T. Rodrigues
      Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; CAPM; Capital Asset Pricing; International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Foreign Direct Investment; Behavioral Finance; United States
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      Engel, C., J. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot, and T. Rodrigues. "Tests of Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market." Journal of Empirical Finance 2 (March 1995). (Revised from NBER Working Paper Nos. 2890, March 1989 and 4292, March 1993, "Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market," March 1993.)
      • 1990
      • Working Paper

      Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns

      By: K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance; Asset Pricing; Behavioral Finance
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      Froot, K. A. "Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 3247, May 1990.
      • 1990
      • Article

      The Role of Arbitration Costs and Risk Aversion on Dispute Outcomes

      By: H. S. Farber, M. A. Neale and M. H. Bazerman
      Keywords: Cost; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result
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      Farber, H. S., M. A. Neale, and M. H. Bazerman. "The Role of Arbitration Costs and Risk Aversion on Dispute Outcomes." Industrial Relations 29 (1990): 361–384.
      • December 1989
      • Article

      Risk Aversion and the Relationship between Nash's Solution and Subgame Perfect Equilibrium of Sequential Bargaining

      By: A. E. Roth
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Relationships; Negotiation
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      Roth, A. E. "Risk Aversion and the Relationship between Nash's Solution and Subgame Perfect Equilibrium of Sequential Bargaining." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 2, no. 4 (December 1989): 353–365.
      • Article

      Risk Aversion in Bargaining: An Experimental Study

      By: J. K. Murnighan, A. E. Roth and F. Schoumaker
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Information
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      Murnighan, J. K., A. E. Roth, and F. Schoumaker. "Risk Aversion in Bargaining: An Experimental Study." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 1, no. 1 (March 1988): 101–124.
      • 1987
      • Working Paper

      Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

      By: K. A. Froot
      Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Volatility
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      Froot, K. A. "Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 2362, August 1987.
      • January 1985
      • Article

      A Note on Risk Aversion in a Perfect Equilibrium Model of Bargaining

      By: A. E. Roth
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Negotiation
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      Roth, A. E. "A Note on Risk Aversion in a Perfect Equilibrium Model of Bargaining." Econometrica 53, no. 1 (January 1985): 207–211.
      • September 1982
      • Article

      Risk Aversion and the Negotiation of Insurance Contracts

      By: R. Kihlstrom and A. E. Roth
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Negotiation; Insurance
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      Kihlstrom, R., and A. E. Roth. "Risk Aversion and the Negotiation of Insurance Contracts." Journal of Risk and Insurance 49 (September 1982): 372–387.
      • May 1982
      • Article

      Risk Aversion and Nash's Solution for Bargaining Games with Risky Outcomes

      By: A. E. Roth and U. Rothblum
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Negotiation; Outcome or Result
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      Roth, A. E., and U. Rothblum. "Risk Aversion and Nash's Solution for Bargaining Games with Risky Outcomes." Econometrica 50, no. 3 (May 1982): 639–647.
      • 1981
      • Chapter

      Risk Aversion and Solutions to Nash's Bargaining Problem

      By: R. Kihlstrom, A. E. Roth and D. Schmeidler
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Negotiation; Mathematical Methods
      Citation
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      Kihlstrom, R., A. E. Roth, and D. Schmeidler. "Risk Aversion and Solutions to Nash's Bargaining Problem." In Game Theory and Mathematical Economics, edited by O. Moeschlin and D. Pallaschke, 65–71. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1981.
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?

      By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée
      This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Innovation; Household Finance; Structured Products; Stock Market Participation; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Household; Personal Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Market Participation
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      Calvet, Laurent, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini, and Boris Vallée. "Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?" Journal of Finance (forthcoming).
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