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      • Faculty Publications  (707)

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      • February 2023
      • Article

      OTC Intermediaries

      By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
      We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter (OTC) market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market...  View Details
      Keywords: OTC Markets; Intermediaries; Dealers; Credit Default Swaps; Risk Sharing; Financial Markets; Networks; Price; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Eisfeldt, Andrea L., Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan, and Emil Siriwardane. "OTC Intermediaries." Review of Financial Studies 36, no. 2 (February 2023): 615–677.
      • January 2023
      • Case

      Cleave Therapeutics: Taking a Risk on Oncology Drug Discovery

      By: Regina Herzlinger and Brian Walker
      How can a successful executive assess her next move as the CEO of a firm with a promising and yet uncertain new drug? Amy Burroughs’ mandate to find a therapeutic window for Cleave Therapeutics oncology drug was on track but faced an uncertain future. Overseeing the...  View Details
      Keywords: Product Development; Leadership; Health Testing and Trials; Research and Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Condition; Partners and Partnerships; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Herzlinger, Regina, and Brian Walker. "Cleave Therapeutics: Taking a Risk on Oncology Drug Discovery." Harvard Business School Case 323-045, January 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Public Perception and Autonomous Vehicle Liability

      By: Julian De Freitas, Xilin Zhou, Margherita Atzei, Shoshana Boardman and Luigi Di Lillo
      The deployment of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and the accompanying societal and economic benefits will greatly depend on how much liability AV firms will have to carry for accidents involving these vehicles, which in turn impacts their insurability and associated...  View Details
      Keywords: Autonomous Vehicles; Moral Judgment; Liabilities; Harm; Insurance; Moral Sensibility; Legal Liability; Risk and Uncertainty; Technological Innovation; Public Opinion
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      De Freitas, Julian, Xilin Zhou, Margherita Atzei, Shoshana Boardman, and Luigi Di Lillo. "Public Perception and Autonomous Vehicle Liability." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-036, January 2023. (Revised January 2023.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’

      By: Jacqueline N. Lane
      In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Research; Resource Allocation; Perception
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      Lane, Jacqueline N. "The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-037, January 2023.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
      We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries' supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence...  View Details
      Keywords: Swap Spreads; Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates; Financial Crisis; Financial Markets
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      Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Leadership & Overconfidence

      By: Don A Moore and Max H. Bazerman
      Expressions of confidence can give leaders credibility. In the political realm, they can earn votes and public approval for decisions made in office. Such support is justified when the confidence displayed is truly a sign that a leader (whether a candidate or an...  View Details
      Keywords: Personal Characteristics; Leadership; Government Legislation; Political Elections
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      Moore, Don A., and Max H. Bazerman. "Leadership & Overconfidence." Behavioral Science & Policy 8, no. 2 (2022): 59–69.
      • December 2022
      • Article

      Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics

      By: Cheng Gao and Rory McDonald
      In nascent industries—whose new technologies are often poorly understood by regulators—contending with regulatory uncertainty can be crucial to organizational survival and growth. Prior research on nonmarket strategy has largely focused on established firms in mature...  View Details
      Keywords: Technological Change; Innovation; Qualitative Methods; New Categories; Entrepreneurship; Technological Innovation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy
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      Gao, Cheng, and Rory McDonald. "Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics." Administrative Science Quarterly 67, no. 4 (December 2022): 915–967.
      • November 2022
      • Article

      Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains

      By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton
      Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money, reputation). In...  View Details
      Keywords: Opportunities; Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Success; Perception
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      Prinsloo, Emily, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John, and Michael I. Norton. "Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains." Psychological Science 33, no. 11 (November 2022): 1857–1866.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans

      By: Maria Loumioti and George Serafeim
      Sustainability-linked loans (i.e., syndicated loans for which pricing is linked to a sustainability performance indicator) have rapidly evolved into a significant private debt product. We find that sustainability-linked lending has been available mostly to borrowers...  View Details
      Keywords: Sustainability; Sustainability Management; Credit Products; Loan Contracts; Loans; Corporate Finance; Credit Risk; Environment; ESG; ESG Ratings; Climate Change; Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Risk and Uncertainty; Credit
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      Loumioti, Maria, and George Serafeim. "The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-027, November 2022.
      • October 2022 (Revised January 2023)
      • Case

      Century Bank: Closing Time?

      By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Bill Kwon
      Barry Sloane, second-generation Chairman, President, and CEO of his family’s bank, Century Bank, weighed whether to sell to Eastern Bank. As a small regional bank, Century faced a number of challenging trends, such as digitization and market share decline in the coming...  View Details
      Keywords: Family Office; Business Exit; Banking; Family; Massachusetts; Boston; United States; Acquisition; Business Exit or Shutdown; Family Business; Family and Family Relationships; Interpersonal Communication; Decision Making; Finance; Banks and Banking; Risk and Uncertainty; Emotions; Banking Industry; Boston; Massachusetts; United States
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      Cohen, Lauren, Grace Headinger, and Bill Kwon. "Century Bank: Closing Time?" Harvard Business School Case 223-040, October 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
      • October 2022
      • Case

      Spaceport America, Public Sector Risk-taking, and Political Accountability (A)

      By: Matthew Weinzierl, Dava Newman, Rebecca Browder and Angela Acocella
      Sitting quietly in the heart of the New Mexico desert in the summer of 2014, Spaceport America (SA) housed little of the activity its supporters anticipated when opening its hangar doors in 2011. Despite $1 million in annual rent from Virgin Galactic, British...  View Details
      Keywords: Funding Sources; Risk and Uncertainty; Public Sector; Business and Government Relations; Factories, Labs, and Plants; Aerospace Industry; New Mexico
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      Weinzierl, Matthew, Dava Newman, Rebecca Browder, and Angela Acocella. "Spaceport America, Public Sector Risk-taking, and Political Accountability (A)." Harvard Business School Case 723-011, October 2022.
      • Fall 2022
      • Book Review

      Book review of 'Havoc and Reform: Workplace Disasters in Modern America,' by James P. Kraft

      By: Melanie Sheehan
      Keywords: Safety; Policy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Sheehan, Melanie. "Book review of 'Havoc and Reform: Workplace Disasters in Modern America,' by James P. Kraft." Business History Review 96, no. 3 (Fall 2022): 701–703.
      • September 2022
      • Case

      BancoSol: Financial Inclusion in the Perfect Storm

      By: Michael Chu and Carla Larangeira
      In the pandemic, financial inclusion icon BancoSol faces a government-mandated year-long deferral of all loan payments, followed by the sudden Covid death of its CEO. In a Bolivia mired in political turmoil following a failed presidential election, with clients not...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Crisis Management; Management Succession; Business Strategy; Innovation Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Financing and Loans; Restructuring; Financial Services Industry; Latin America; Bolivia
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      Chu, Michael, and Carla Larangeira. "BancoSol: Financial Inclusion in the Perfect Storm." Harvard Business School Case 323-023, September 2022.
      • September 2022
      • Article

      Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews

      By: Dennis W. Campbell and Ruidi Shang
      This paper examines whether information extracted via text-based statistical methods applied to employee reviews left on the website Glassdoor.com can be used to develop indicators of corporate misconduct risk. We argue that inside information on the incidence of...  View Details
      Keywords: Management Accounting; Management Control; Corporate Culture; Corporate Misconduct; Risk Measurement; Organizational Culture; Crime and Corruption; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics
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      Campbell, Dennis W., and Ruidi Shang. "Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 7034–7053.
      • August 2022
      • Case

      Atlanta Ransomware Attack (A)

      By: Amit Goldenberg and Julian Zlatev
      This case describes the March 2018 Ransomware attack on the information technology (IT) systems of the city of Atlanta and the response by Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and her administration. The case includes a brief background on Bottoms and her young administration at...  View Details
      Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decisions; Ethics; Values and Beliefs; Government and Politics; Government Administration; Information Technology; Cybersecurity; Information Management; Leadership; Management; Crisis Management; Management Teams; Negotiation; Risk and Uncertainty; Social Psychology; Perception; Personal Characteristics; Perspective; Power and Influence; Society; Public Administration Industry; United States; Georgia (state, US); Atlanta
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      Goldenberg, Amit, and Julian Zlatev. "Atlanta Ransomware Attack (A)." Harvard Business School Case 923-009, August 2022.
      • August 2022
      • Supplement

      Atlanta Ransomware Attack (B)

      By: Amit Goldenberg and Julian Zlatev
      This case describes the March 2018 Ransomware attack on the information technology (IT) systems of the city of Atlanta and the response by Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and her administration. The case includes a brief background on Bottoms and her young administration at...  View Details
      Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decisions; Ethics; Values and Beliefs; Government and Politics; Government Administration; Information Technology; Cybersecurity; Information Management; Leadership; Management; Crisis Management; Management Teams; Negotiation; Risk and Uncertainty; Social Psychology; Perception; Personal Characteristics; Perspective; Power and Influence; Society; Public Administration Industry; United States; Atlanta; Georgia (state, US)
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      Goldenberg, Amit, and Julian Zlatev. "Atlanta Ransomware Attack (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 923-010, August 2022.
      • July 2022 (Revised September 2022)
      • Case

      Birla Carbon Egypt: Building Soft Power in a Foreign Country

      By: Jeremy Friedman and Malini Sen
      Birla Carbon, a flagship business of the nearly $60-billion global conglomerate and India-headquartered Aditya Birla Group (ABG), is one of the world's top manufacturers and suppliers of high-quality carbon black. The largest among its 16 manufacturing plants is Birla...  View Details
      Keywords: Acquisition; Family Business; Disruption; Transformation; Diversity; Trade; Energy; Values and Beliefs; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Global Strategy; Government and Politics; Private Ownership; Civil Society or Community; Risk and Uncertainty; Value Creation; Industrial Products Industry; Rubber Industry; Egypt; Africa; India; Asia; Atlanta; United States
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      Friedman, Jeremy, and Malini Sen. "Birla Carbon Egypt: Building Soft Power in a Foreign Country." Harvard Business School Case 723-003, July 2022. (Revised September 2022.)
      • July 2022 (Revised November 2022)
      • Case

      Call of Fiduciary Duty: Microsoft Acquires Activision Blizzard

      By: Joseph Pacelli, Jonas Heese and James Barnett
      In January 2022, Microsoft announces its acquisition of the video game company Activision Blizzard, in a deal valued at $68.7 billion, which would make Microsoft the world’s third largest video game company. The deal came as Activision Blizzard faced gender pay...  View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Goodwill Accounting; Analysis; Decision Making; Talent and Talent Management; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Ethics; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Mergers and Acquisitions; Lawsuits and Litigation; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Video Game Industry; North America; California
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      Pacelli, Joseph, Jonas Heese, and James Barnett. "Call of Fiduciary Duty: Microsoft Acquires Activision Blizzard." Harvard Business School Case 123-011, July 2022. (Revised November 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Article

      Regulatory Treatment of Changes in Fair Value and the Composition of Banks' Investment Portfolios

      By: Michael Iselin, Jung Koo Kang and Joshua Madsen
      In their implementation of Basel III, U.S. bank regulators are again including changes in the fair value of available-for-sale (AFS) debt securities in Tier 1 capital, but only for the largest U.S. banks. This paper investigates a potential impact of expanding this...  View Details
      Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; SFAS 115; Basel III; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banks and Banking; Debt Securities; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Portfolio; Decision Making; Banking Industry; United States
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      Iselin, Michael, Jung Koo Kang, and Joshua Madsen. "Regulatory Treatment of Changes in Fair Value and the Composition of Banks' Investment Portfolios." Journal of Financial Reporting 7, no. 1 (2022): 123–143.
      • 2022
      • Report

      The First Four Healthy Building Strategies Every Building Should Pursue to Reduce Risk from COVID-19

      By: Joseph G. Allen, Emily Jones, Marissa V. Rainbolt, Linsey C. Marr, David Michaels, Leslie R. Cadet, Shelly L. Miller, Meira Levinson, Lidia Morawska, Richard L. Corsi, Nira R. Pollock, Yuguo Li, Alasdair P.S. Munro, Kelly Grier, Qingyan Chen, John D. Macomber and Xiaodong Cao
      Understanding of the most probable transmission routes and identifying the risk environments for disease spread should always be among the first critical steps in the response to future disease threats. This is one of the most vital public health lessons of the...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Pandemics; Buildings and Facilities; Risk and Uncertainty; Health Industry; Education Industry; Real Estate Industry
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      Allen, Joseph G., Emily Jones, Marissa V. Rainbolt, Linsey C. Marr, David Michaels, Leslie R. Cadet, Shelly L. Miller, Meira Levinson, Lidia Morawska, Richard L. Corsi, Nira R. Pollock, Yuguo Li, Alasdair P.S. Munro, Kelly Grier, Qingyan Chen, John D. Macomber, and Xiaodong Cao. "The First Four Healthy Building Strategies Every Building Should Pursue to Reduce Risk from COVID-19." Report, Lancet COVID-19 Commission, Task Force on Safe School, Safe Work, Safe Travel, July 2022. (COVID-19 Commission.)
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