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- 2023
- Working Paper
'It Wouldn’t have Mattered Anyway': When Overdetermined Outcomes Justify Our Sins
By: Julian Zlatev, Stephanie C. Lin and Dale Miller
We identify and document an “overdetermined outcome defense” which occurs when one learns
that circumstances besides one’s own actions were sufficient to produce a negative effect (e.g.,
deciding not to go to the gym, but later discovering that the gym had been...
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- January 2023
- Case
Cleave Therapeutics: Taking a Risk on Oncology Drug Discovery
By: Regina Herzlinger and Brian Walker
How can a successful executive assess her next move as the CEO of a firm with a promising and yet uncertain new drug? Amy Burroughs’ mandate to find a therapeutic window for Cleave Therapeutics oncology drug was on track but faced an uncertain future. Overseeing the...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’
In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research...
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- December 2022
- Article
'Just Letting You Know…': Underestimating Others' Desire for Constructive Feedback
People often avoid giving feedback to others even when it would help fix a problem immediately. Indeed, in a pilot field study (N=155), only 2.6% of individuals provided feedback to survey administrators that the administrators had food or marker on their faces....
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries' supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence...
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- November 2022
- Case
GE: A New Way Forward?
By: David J. Collis and Haisley Wert
One of the most iconic American companies, General Electric (GE) was founded in 1892 in New York state. Named among the original dozen companies on the Dow Jones index in 1896, it was the list’s most tenacious holdout, maintaining its “blue chip” stock status for over...
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- November 2022
- Article
Hate Crime Towards Minoritized Groups Increases as They Increase in Sized-Based Rank
By: Mina Cikara, Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
People are on the move in unprecedented numbers within and between countries. How does demographic change affect local intergroup dynamics? In complement to accounts that emphasize stereotypical features of groups as determinants of their treatment, we propose the...
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Keywords:
Prejudice;
Minority;
Hate Crimes;
Reference Dependence;
Prejudice and Bias;
Attitudes;
Demographics
- October 2022
- Case
Spaceport America, Public Sector Risk-taking, and Political Accountability (A)
By: Matthew Weinzierl, Dava Newman, Rebecca Browder and Angela Acocella
Sitting quietly in the heart of the New Mexico desert in the summer of 2014, Spaceport America (SA) housed little of the activity its supporters anticipated when opening its hangar doors in 2011. Despite $1 million in annual rent from Virgin Galactic, British...
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- Working Paper
Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials
By: Marcella Alsan, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein and Heidi L. Williams
This article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of Black patients in clinical
trials. We develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is
more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it...
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- September 16, 2022
- Article
A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties
By: Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
The authors analyzed data from multiple large-scale randomized experiments on LinkedIn’s People You May Know algorithm, which recommends new connections to LinkedIn members, to test the extent to which weak ties increased job mobility in the world’s largest...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
What Would It Mean for a Machine to Have a Self?
By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, Laurie Paul, Joshua B. Tenenbaum and Tomer Ullman
What would it mean for autonomous AI agents to have a ‘self’? One proposal for a minimal
notion of self is a representation of one’s body spatio-temporally located in the world, with a tag
of that representation as the agent taking actions in the world. This turns...
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- September 2022
- Article
A Spanner in the Works: Category-Spanning Entrants and Audience Valuation of Incumbents
By: Rory M. McDonald and Ryan T. Allen
Previous work has examined how audiences evaluate category-spanning organizations, but little is known about how their entrance affects evaluations of other, proximate organizations. We posit that the emergence of category-spanning entrants signals the advent of an...
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- September 2022
- Article
Experimentation and Startup Performance: Evidence from A/B Testing
By: Rembrand Koning, Sharique Hasan and Aaron Chatterji
Recent scholarship has argued that experimentation should be the organizing principle for entrepreneurial strategy. Experimentation leads to organizational learning, which drives improvements in firm performance. We investigate this proposition by exploiting the...
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- September 2022
- Article
Health Externalities and Policy: The Role of Social Preferences
By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf and Farzad Saidi
Social preferences facilitate the internalization of health externalities, for example by reducing mobility during a pandemic. We test this hypothesis using mobility data from 258 cities worldwide alongside experimentally validated measures of social preferences....
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- August 13, 2022
- Article
A Historic Opportunity for Universal Health Coverage in India
By: Vikram Patel, Shubhangi Bhadada, Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, Arnab Mukherji, Tarun Khanna and Gagandeep Kang
The milestone of India's 75th anniversary of independence on Aug 15, 2022, offers an opportunity to reassert the country's commitment to realising universal health coverage (UHC). The first such effort predates independence, with the 1946 Bhore Committee report....
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- August 2022
- Case
NOW PT (A): Should We Invest?
By: George A Riedel, Amy Klopfenstein and Mel Martin
In fall 2021, a team of students from the HBS Impact Investing Fund considered Neurologic Optimal Wellness Physical Therapy (NOW PT) for a potential investment. Dr. Banks, the founder of NOW PT, drove to visit patients. She sought an investment from the fund to open a...
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- August 2022
- Case
Rocket Learning: Evidence in Action
By: Brian Trelstad, Tomas Rosales and Malini Sen
Founders of Rocket Learning, an India-based nonprofit which focused on early childhood education (ECE), received an invitation from MIT’s Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (JPAL), a development research organization, to test its intervention for ECE with a...
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- August, 2022
- Article
Changing Ingroup Boundaries: The Effect of Immigration on Race Relations in the U.S.
By: Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
How do social group boundaries evolve? Does the appearance of a new outgroup change the ingroup's perceptions of other outgroups? We introduce a conceptual framework of context-dependent categorization, in which exposure to one minority leads to recategorization of...
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- 2022
- Article
Nonparametric Subset Scanning for Detection of Heteroscedasticity
By: Charles R. Doss and Edward McFowland III
We propose Heteroscedastic Subset Scan (HSS), a novel method for identifying covariates that are responsible for violations of the homoscedasticity assumption in regression settings. Viewing the problem as one of anomalous pattern detection, we use subset scanning...
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- Article
Online Experimentation: Benefits, Operational and Methodological Challenges, and Scaling Guide
By: Iavor Bojinov and Somit Gupta
In the past decade, online controlled experimentation, or A/B testing, at scale has proved to be a significant driver of business innovation. The practice was first pioneered by the technology sector and, more recently, has been adopted by traditional companies...
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