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Publications

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      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      'It Wouldn’t have Mattered Anyway': When Overdetermined Outcomes Justify Our Sins

      By: Julian Zlatev, Stephanie C. Lin and Dale Miller
      We identify and document an “overdetermined outcome defense” which occurs when one learns that circumstances besides one’s own actions were sufficient to produce a negative effect (e.g., deciding not to go to the gym, but later discovering that the gym had been...  View Details
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      Zlatev, Julian, Stephanie C. Lin, and Dale Miller. "'It Wouldn’t have Mattered Anyway': When Overdetermined Outcomes Justify Our Sins." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-045, January 2023.
      • January 2023
      • Case

      Cleave Therapeutics: Taking a Risk on Oncology Drug Discovery

      By: Regina Herzlinger and Brian Walker
      How can a successful executive assess her next move as the CEO of a firm with a promising and yet uncertain new drug? Amy Burroughs’ mandate to find a therapeutic window for Cleave Therapeutics oncology drug was on track but faced an uncertain future. Overseeing the...  View Details
      Keywords: Product Development; Leadership; Health Testing and Trials; Research and Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Condition; Partners and Partnerships; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Herzlinger, Regina, and Brian Walker. "Cleave Therapeutics: Taking a Risk on Oncology Drug Discovery." Harvard Business School Case 323-045, January 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’

      By: Jacqueline N. Lane
      In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Research; Resource Allocation; Perception
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      Lane, Jacqueline N. "The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-037, January 2023.
      • December 2022
      • Article

      'Just Letting You Know…': Underestimating Others' Desire for Constructive Feedback

      By: Nicole Abi-Esber, Jennifer E. Abel, Juliana Schroeder and Francesca Gino
      People often avoid giving feedback to others even when it would help fix a problem immediately. Indeed, in a pilot field study (N=155), only 2.6% of individuals provided feedback to survey administrators that the administrators had food or marker on their faces....  View Details
      Keywords: Feedback; Helping; Prosocial Behavior; Misprediction; Relationships; Interpersonal Communication; Perspective
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      Abi-Esber, Nicole, Jennifer E. Abel, Juliana Schroeder, and Francesca Gino. "'Just Letting You Know…': Underestimating Others' Desire for Constructive Feedback." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 123, no. 6 (December 2022): 1362–1385.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
      We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries' supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence...  View Details
      Keywords: Swap Spreads; Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates; Financial Crisis; Financial Markets
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      Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • November 2022
      • Case

      GE: A New Way Forward?

      By: David J. Collis and Haisley Wert
      One of the most iconic American companies, General Electric (GE) was founded in 1892 in New York state. Named among the original dozen companies on the Dow Jones index in 1896, it was the list’s most tenacious holdout, maintaining its “blue chip” stock status for over...  View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; GE; Conglomerate; Conglomerates; Corporate Strategy; Management; History; Leadership; Problems and Challenges; Change Management; Transformation; Strategic Planning; Value Creation; New York (state, US)
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      Collis, David J., and Haisley Wert. "GE: A New Way Forward?" Harvard Business School Case 723-373, November 2022.
      • November 2022
      • Article

      Hate Crime Towards Minoritized Groups Increases as They Increase in Sized-Based Rank

      By: Mina Cikara, Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
      People are on the move in unprecedented numbers within and between countries. How does demographic change affect local intergroup dynamics? In complement to accounts that emphasize stereotypical features of groups as determinants of their treatment, we propose the...  View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice; Minority; Hate Crimes; Reference Dependence; Prejudice and Bias; Attitudes; Demographics
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      Cikara, Mina, Vasiliki Fouka, and Marco Tabellini. "Hate Crime Towards Minoritized Groups Increases as They Increase in Sized-Based Rank." Nature Human Behaviour 6, no. 11 (November 2022): 1537–1544. (Pre-Published online August 8, 2022, Featured in HBS Working Knowledge and ABC News.)
      • October 2022
      • Case

      Spaceport America, Public Sector Risk-taking, and Political Accountability (A)

      By: Matthew Weinzierl, Dava Newman, Rebecca Browder and Angela Acocella
      Sitting quietly in the heart of the New Mexico desert in the summer of 2014, Spaceport America (SA) housed little of the activity its supporters anticipated when opening its hangar doors in 2011. Despite $1 million in annual rent from Virgin Galactic, British...  View Details
      Keywords: Funding Sources; Risk and Uncertainty; Public Sector; Business and Government Relations; Factories, Labs, and Plants; Aerospace Industry; New Mexico
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      Weinzierl, Matthew, Dava Newman, Rebecca Browder, and Angela Acocella. "Spaceport America, Public Sector Risk-taking, and Political Accountability (A)." Harvard Business School Case 723-011, October 2022.
      • Working Paper

      Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials

      By: Marcella Alsan, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein and Heidi L. Williams
      This article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of Black patients in clinical trials. We develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it...  View Details
      Keywords: Representation; Racial Disparity; Health Testing and Trials; Race; Equality and Inequality; Innovation and Invention; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Alsan, Marcella, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein, and Heidi L. Williams. "Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30575, October 2022. (Revise and resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
      • September 16, 2022
      • Article

      A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties

      By: Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
      The authors analyzed data from multiple large-scale randomized experiments on LinkedIn’s People You May Know algorithm, which recommends new connections to LinkedIn members, to test the extent to which weak ties increased job mobility in the world’s largest...  View Details
      Keywords: Job Mobility; Social Networks; Social Ties; Networks; Personal Development and Career
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      Rajkumar, Karthik, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Sinan Aral. "A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties." Science 377, no. 6612 (September 16, 2022).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      What Would It Mean for a Machine to Have a Self?

      By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, Laurie Paul, Joshua B. Tenenbaum and Tomer Ullman
      What would it mean for autonomous AI agents to have a ‘self’? One proposal for a minimal notion of self is a representation of one’s body spatio-temporally located in the world, with a tag of that representation as the agent taking actions in the world. This turns...  View Details
      Keywords: Self; AI; Games; Reinforcement Learning; Avatar; AI and Machine Learning
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      De Freitas, Julian, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, Laurie Paul, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, and Tomer Ullman. "What Would It Mean for a Machine to Have a Self?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-017, September 2022.
      • September 2022
      • Article

      A Spanner in the Works: Category-Spanning Entrants and Audience Valuation of Incumbents

      By: Rory M. McDonald and Ryan T. Allen
      Previous work has examined how audiences evaluate category-spanning organizations, but little is known about how their entrance affects evaluations of other, proximate organizations. We posit that the emergence of category-spanning entrants signals the advent of an...  View Details
      Keywords: Emerging Industries; Industry Dynamics; Organization And Management Theory; Technology Strategy; Technology And Innovation Management; Entrepreneurship; Information Technology; Strategy; Management; Theory; Innovation and Management
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      McDonald, Rory M., and Ryan T. Allen. "A Spanner in the Works: Category-Spanning Entrants and Audience Valuation of Incumbents." Strategy Science 7, no. 6 (September 2022): 190–209.
      • September 2022
      • Article

      Experimentation and Startup Performance: Evidence from A/B Testing

      By: Rembrand Koning, Sharique Hasan and Aaron Chatterji
      Recent scholarship has argued that experimentation should be the organizing principle for entrepreneurial strategy. Experimentation leads to organizational learning, which drives improvements in firm performance. We investigate this proposition by exploiting the...  View Details
      Keywords: Experimentation; A/B Testing; Data-driven Decision-making; Organizational Learning; Entrepreneurship; Strategy; Business Startups; Learning; Performance; Decision Making
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      Koning, Rembrand, Sharique Hasan, and Aaron Chatterji. "Experimentation and Startup Performance: Evidence from A/B Testing." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 6434–6453.
      • September 2022
      • Article

      Health Externalities and Policy: The Role of Social Preferences

      By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf and Farzad Saidi
      Social preferences facilitate the internalization of health externalities, for example by reducing mobility during a pandemic. We test this hypothesis using mobility data from 258 cities worldwide alongside experimentally validated measures of social preferences....  View Details
      Keywords: Social Preferences; Pandemics; Mobility; Health Externalities; Mitigation Policies; Health Pandemics; Cooperation; Behavior; Policy
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      Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf, and Farzad Saidi. "Health Externalities and Policy: The Role of Social Preferences." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 6751–6761.
      • August 13, 2022
      • Article

      A Historic Opportunity for Universal Health Coverage in India

      By: Vikram Patel, Shubhangi Bhadada, Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, Arnab Mukherji, Tarun Khanna and Gagandeep Kang
      The milestone of India's 75th anniversary of independence on Aug 15, 2022, offers an opportunity to reassert the country's commitment to realising universal health coverage (UHC). The first such effort predates independence, with the 1946 Bhore Committee report....  View Details
      Keywords: Universal Health Coverage; COVID-19 Pandemic; Health Care and Treatment; Gender; Prejudice and Bias; Health Industry; India
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      Patel, Vikram, Shubhangi Bhadada, Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, Arnab Mukherji, Tarun Khanna, and Gagandeep Kang. "A Historic Opportunity for Universal Health Coverage in India." Lancet 400, no. 10351 (August 13, 2022): 475–477.
      • August 2022
      • Case

      NOW PT (A): Should We Invest?

      By: George A Riedel, Amy Klopfenstein and Mel Martin
      In fall 2021, a team of students from the HBS Impact Investing Fund considered Neurologic Optimal Wellness Physical Therapy (NOW PT) for a potential investment. Dr. Banks, the founder of NOW PT, drove to visit patients. She sought an investment from the fund to open a...  View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Social Entrepreneurship; Finance; Investment; Health; Health Care and Treatment; Medical Specialties; Buildings and Facilities; Health Industry; Financial Services Industry; North and Central America; United States; Massachusetts
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      Riedel, George A., Amy Klopfenstein, and Mel Martin. "NOW PT (A): Should We Invest?" Harvard Business School Case 323-009, August 2022.
      • August 2022
      • Case

      Rocket Learning: Evidence in Action

      By: Brian Trelstad, Tomas Rosales and Malini Sen
      Founders of Rocket Learning, an India-based nonprofit which focused on early childhood education (ECE), received an invitation from MIT’s Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (JPAL), a development research organization, to test its intervention for ECE with a...  View Details
      Keywords: Social Entrepreneurship; Early Childhood Education; Nonprofit Organizations; Literacy; Values and Beliefs; Social and Collaborative Networks; Education Industry; India; Asia
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      Trelstad, Brian, Tomas Rosales, and Malini Sen. "Rocket Learning: Evidence in Action." Harvard Business School Case 323-002, August 2022.
      • August, 2022
      • Article

      Changing Ingroup Boundaries: The Effect of Immigration on Race Relations in the U.S.

      By: Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
      How do social group boundaries evolve? Does the appearance of a new outgroup change the ingroup's perceptions of other outgroups? We introduce a conceptual framework of context-dependent categorization, in which exposure to one minority leads to recategorization of...  View Details
      Keywords: In-group-out-group Relations; Ingroup-outgroup Relations; Immigration; Race; Relationships; United States
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      Fouka, Vasiliki, and Marco Tabellini. "Changing Ingroup Boundaries: The Effect of Immigration on Race Relations in the U.S." American Political Science Review 116, no. 3 (August, 2022): 968–984. (Featured in the Boston Globe, Washington Post, and HBS Working Knowledge.)
      • 2022
      • Article

      Nonparametric Subset Scanning for Detection of Heteroscedasticity

      By: Charles R. Doss and Edward McFowland III
      We propose Heteroscedastic Subset Scan (HSS), a novel method for identifying covariates that are responsible for violations of the homoscedasticity assumption in regression settings. Viewing the problem as one of anomalous pattern detection, we use subset scanning...  View Details
      Keywords: Scan Statistics; Anomaly Detection; Regression; Model Diagnostics
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      Doss, Charles R., and Edward McFowland III. "Nonparametric Subset Scanning for Detection of Heteroscedasticity." Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 31, no. 3 (2022): 813–823.
      • Article

      Online Experimentation: Benefits, Operational and Methodological Challenges, and Scaling Guide

      By: Iavor Bojinov and Somit Gupta
      In the past decade, online controlled experimentation, or A/B testing, at scale has proved to be a significant driver of business innovation. The practice was first pioneered by the technology sector and, more recently, has been adopted by traditional companies...  View Details
      Keywords: A/B Testing; Experimentation; Data-driven Culture; Product Development; Innovation and Invention; Digital Transformation
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      Bojinov, Iavor, and Somit Gupta. "Online Experimentation: Benefits, Operational and Methodological Challenges, and Scaling Guide." Harvard Data Science Review, no. 4.3 (Summer, 2022).
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