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      • Faculty Publications  (61)

      System Shocks Remove System Shocks →

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      System Shocks
      Skip to Main Content Cold Call A podcast featuring faculty discussing cases they've written and the lessons they impart. Subscribe on iTunes 29 Sep...
      Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets
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      • February 2021
      • Article

      Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession

      By: S. Bernstein, T. McQuade and R. Townsend
      We investigate how the deterioration of household balance sheets affects worker productivity, and, in turn, economic downturns. Specifically, we compare the output of innovative workers who experienced differential declines in housing wealth during the financial crisis...  View Details
      Keywords: Great Recession; Household; Financial Condition; system shocks; Employees; Performance Productivity
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      Bernstein, S., T. McQuade, and R. Townsend. "Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession." Journal of Finance 76, no. 1 (February 2021): 57–111.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times

      By: Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
      What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? We present a model of delegation within the firm to show that the effect is ambiguous. The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information...  View Details
      Keywords: Decentralization; Growth; Turbulence; Great Recession; Organizational Design; system shocks; Economic Growth; Performance
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      Aghion, Philippe, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 13, no. 1 (January 2021): 133–169.
      • November 2020
      • Teaching Note

      Unrest in Chile

      By: Vincent Pons, John Masko, Rafael Di Tella and William Mullins
      In 2020, Chileans would head to the ballot box to decide their country’s future. Many international observers credited Chile’s decades of neoliberal governance with turning the country into Latin America’s “Tiger,” a prosperous, diversified economy on its way to...  View Details
      Keywords: Developing Countries And Economies; Macroeconomics; Economy; Political Elections; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Equality And Inequality; system shocks; Chile; Latin America
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      Pons, Vincent, John Masko, Rafael Di Tella, and William Mullins. "Unrest in Chile." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 721-016, November 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      An Executive Order Worth $100 Billion: The Impact of an Immigration Ban's Announcement on Fortune 500 Firms' Valuation

      By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury and Britta Glennon
      On June 22, 2020, President Trump issued an Executive Order (EO) that suspended new work visas, barring nearly 200,000 foreign workers and their dependents from entering the United States and preventing American companies from hiring skilled immigrants using H-1B or L1...  View Details
      Keywords: Visa; Foreign Workers; Fortune 500; Immigration; Policy; system shocks; Business Ventures; Valuation
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      Bahar, Dany, Prithwiraj Choudhury, and Britta Glennon. "An Executive Order Worth $100 Billion: The Impact of an Immigration Ban's Announcement on Fortune 500 Firms' Valuation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-055, October 2020.
      • Fall 2020
      • Article

      Sizing Up Corporate Restructuring in the COVID Crisis

      By: Robin Greenwood, Benjamin Iverson and David Thesmar
      In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial distress in the business sector. Some firms will be able to survive, while others will face bankruptcy and thus need to be liquidated or reorganized. Many...  View Details
      Keywords: Covid-19; Health Pandemics; Economy; system shocks; Financial Crisis; Restructuring
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      Greenwood, Robin, Benjamin Iverson, and David Thesmar. "Sizing Up Corporate Restructuring in the COVID Crisis." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Fall 2020). (Also NBER Working Paper, No. 28104.)
      • Summer 2020
      • Article

      Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?: The COVID-19 Pandemic Should Be a Wake-up Call for Managers and Prompt Them to Consider Actions That Will Improve Their Resilience to Future Shocks

      By: Willy C. Shih
      The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the complex interdependencies of globalized supply chains. While these global multistage production networks had spread during a relatively benign environment of falling trade barriers and increasing interdependencies among countries,...  View Details
      Keywords: Supply Chains; Pandemic; Resilience; Supply Chain Management; Supply Chain; Global Range; Health Pandemics; Disruption; system shocks; Crisis Management; Manufacturing Industry; United States; Asia; Europe; China
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      Shih, Willy C. "Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains? The COVID-19 Pandemic Should Be a Wake-up Call for Managers and Prompt Them to Consider Actions That Will Improve Their Resilience to Future Shocks." MIT Sloan Management Review 61, no. 4 (Summer 2020): 16–18.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Optimal Illiquidity

      By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Christopher Clayton, Christopher Harris, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
      We calculate the socially optimal level of illiquidity in an economy populated by households with taste shocks and present bias (Amador, Werning, and Angeletos 2006). The government chooses mandatory contributions to respective spending/savings accounts, each with a...  View Details
      Keywords: Illiquidity; Social Security; Econometric Models
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      Beshears, John, James J. Choi, Christopher Clayton, Christopher Harris, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "Optimal Illiquidity." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27459, July 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms

      By: Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra and Marcela Eslava
      Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on...  View Details
      Keywords: Covid-19; Emerging Economies; Informality; Firm-size Distribution; Health Pandemics; Developing Countries And Economies; Economy; system shocks; Latin America
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      Alfaro, Laura, Oscar Becerra, and Marcela Eslava. "EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-125, June 2020. (See application of the methodology to Latin American Countries in the IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere 2020, Chapter 3. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2020/10/13/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Category-spanning Entrants and Audience Valuation of Incumbents

      By: Rory M. McDonald and Ryan T. Allen
      Although previous work has examined how audiences evaluate category-spanning organizations, little is known about the conditions under which such spanners affect audience evaluations of other organizations. We posit that the emergence of new category-spanning entrants...  View Details
      Keywords: Category Spanning; Fintech; Industry Evolution; Industry Dynamics; Categories; Categorization; Organizational Theory; Technology Strategy; Disruptive Innovation; Business Startups; Information; system shocks; Disruption; Technological Innovation; Financial Services Industry
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      McDonald, Rory M., and Ryan T. Allen. "Category-spanning Entrants and Audience Valuation of Incumbents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-109, April 2020. (Revised November 2020.)
      • April 2020 (Revised July 2020)
      • Case

      Unrest in Chile

      By: Vincent Pons, William Mullins, John Masko, Annelena Lobb and Rafael Di Tella
      In 2020, Chileans would head to the ballot box to decide their country’s future. Many international observers credited Chile’s decades of neoliberal governance with turning the country into Latin America’s “Tiger,” a prosperous, diversified economy on its way to...  View Details
      Keywords: Developing Countries And Economies; Macroeconomics; Economy; Political Elections; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Equality And Inequality; system shocks; Chile; Latin America
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      Pons, Vincent, William Mullins, John Masko, Annelena Lobb, and Rafael Di Tella. "Unrest in Chile." Harvard Business School Case 720-033, April 2020. (Revised July 2020.)
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of Technology and Trade on Migration: Evidence from the U.S.

      By: Marius Faber, Andres Sarto and Marco Tabellini
      Migration has long been considered one of the key mechanisms through which labor markets adjust to economic shocks. In this paper, we analyze the migration response of American workers to two of the most important shocks that have hit Western economies since the late...  View Details
      Keywords: Migration; Employment; Technology; Trade; system shocks; United States
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      Faber, Marius, Andres Sarto, and Marco Tabellini. "The Impact of Technology and Trade on Migration: Evidence from the U.S." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-071, December 2019. (Also appears in HBS Working Knowledge.)
      • May 2019
      • Article

      Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets

      By: Laura Alfaro, Gonzalo Asis, Anusha Chari and Ugo Panizza
      The post-Global Financial Crisis period shows a surge in corporate leverage in emerging markets and a number of countries with deteriorated corporate financial fragility indicators (Altman’s Z-score). Firm size plays a critical role in the relationship between...  View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Debt; Firm Size; Financial Fragility; Emerging Market; Organizations; Borrowing And Debt; Financial Condition; Emerging Markets; system shocks
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      Alfaro, Laura, Gonzalo Asis, Anusha Chari, and Ugo Panizza. "Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets." Journal of International Economics 118 (May 2019): 1–19. (Also NBER Working Paper 25459.)
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Dani Rodrik
      We study preferences for government action in response to layoffs resulting from different types of labor-market shocks. We consider the following shocks: technological change, a demand shift, bad management, and three kinds of international outsourcing. Respondents...  View Details
      Keywords: Labor; Markets; system shocks; Trade; Attitudes; Surveys
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Dani Rodrik. "Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25705, March 2019.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      The Effectiveness of White-Collar Crime Enforcement: Evidence from the War on Terror

      By: Trung Nguyen
      This paper studies the deterrent effect of criminal enforcement on white-collar criminal activities. Using the 9/11 terrorist attacks as a shock to the FBI’s allocation of investigative resources and priorities, and variations in the Muslim population in the United...  View Details
      Keywords: Regulation; Fraud; White-collar Crime; Enforcement; Crime And Corruption; Law Enforcement; system shocks
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      Nguyen, Trung. "The Effectiveness of White-Collar Crime Enforcement: Evidence from the War on Terror." Working Paper.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Find and Replace: R&D Investment Following the Erosion of Existing Products

      By: Joshua Krieger, Xuelin Li and Richard T. Thakor
      How do innovative firms react when existing products experience negative shocks? We explore this question with detailed project-level data from drug development firms. Using FDA Public Health Advisories as idiosyncratic negative shocks to approved drugs, we first...  View Details
      Keywords: R&d Investments; Drug Development; Product Shocks; system shocks; Research And Development; Investment; Behavior; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Krieger, Joshua, Xuelin Li, and Richard T. Thakor. "Find and Replace: R&D Investment Following the Erosion of Existing Products." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-058, December 2018. (Revised May 2020.)
      • 2018
      • Book

      A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility

      By: Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Fragility; Economic Risk; Investor Behavior; Behavioral Economics; Financial Crisis; Risk And Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Investment; Values And Beliefs; United States
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      Gennaioli, Nicola, and Andrei Shleifer. A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility. Princeton University Press, 2018.
      • September 2018
      • Article

      Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Gordon Y. Liao
      We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within an asset class but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single asset class, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. Upon the arrival...  View Details
      Keywords: system shocks; Asset Pricing
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Gordon Y. Liao. "Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets." Review of Financial Studies 31, no. 9 (September 2018): 3307–3343. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • 2018
      • Article

      More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors

      By: Alberto Cavallo
      I study how online competition, with its shrinking margins, algorithmic pricing technologies, and the transparency of the web, can change the pricing behavior of large retailers in the U.S. and affect aggregate inflation dynamics. In particular, I show that in the past...  View Details
      Keywords: Amazon; Online Prices; Inflation; Uniform Pricing; Price Stickiness; Monetary Economics; Economics; Macroeconomics; Inflation And Deflation; system shocks; United States
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      Cavallo, Alberto. "More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors." Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) (2018).
      • Fall 2017
      • Article

      Strengthening and Streamlining Bank Capital Regulation

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam
      We propose three core principles that should inform the design of bank capital regulation. First, wherever possible, multiple constraints on the minimum level of equity capital should be consolidated into a single constraint. This helps to avoid a distortionary...  View Details
      Keywords: Banks And Banking; Capital; Governing Rules, Regulations, And Reforms; Banking Industry
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Gregory Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam. "Strengthening and Streamlining Bank Capital Regulation." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Fall 2017). (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

      By: Brian S. Chen, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
      Small business lending by the four largest banks fell sharply relative to others in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the dynamic adjustment process following this credit supply shock. In counties where the largest banks had a high market share, the...  View Details
      Keywords: Small Business; Financing And Loans; Banks And Banking; system shocks; Credit; Labor; United States
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      Chen, Brian S., Samuel G. Hanson, and Jeremy C. Stein. "The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 23843, September 2017.
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      System Shocks
      Skip to Main Content Cold Call A podcast featuring faculty discussing cases they've written and the lessons they impart. Subscribe on iTunes 29 Sep...
      Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets
      → Search All HBS Web
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