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- May 2022
- Case
Third Point in 2020: Growth is Where the Value is?
By: Robin Greenwood, James Williams and Denise Han
In early May 2020, Daniel Loeb’s team at Third Point was evaluating a potential growth opportunity in the Walt Disney Company and whether investor activism might play a role. Battered by the effects of COVID-19, the company’s stock had initially tumbled to $86 and then...
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Keywords:
Growth;
Equity;
Disney;
Value;
Economics;
Strategy;
Growth and Development;
Investment Return;
Opportunities;
North America
- May 2022
- Supplement
Third Point in 2020: Growth is Where the Value is? (B)
By: Robin Greenwood and Denise Han
In early May 2020, Daniel Loeb’s team at Third Point was evaluating a potential growth opportunity in the Walt Disney Company and whether investor activism might play a role. Battered by the effects of COVID-19, the company’s stock had initially tumbled to $86 and then...
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- Article
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Climate Solutions Investments
By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
An increasing number of companies are providing products and services that help reduce carbon emissions in the economy. We develop a methodology to identify those companies and create a sample of publicly listed climate solutions companies allowing us to study their...
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Keywords:
Decarbonization;
Climate Finance;
Climate Impact;
Climate Risk;
Environment;
Sustainability;
Carbon Emissions;
Electric Vehicles;
Energy;
Renewables;
Climate Change;
Investment;
Environmental Sustainability;
Renewable Energy;
Transportation Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Energy Industry;
Industrial Products Industry;
China;
United States;
Asia;
Europe
- 2022
- Working Paper
What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?
By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis and Marco Sammon
We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...
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- January 2022 (Revised February 2022)
- Case
Introducing EVA at ISS: A Better Way to Evaluate CEO Performance and Compensation?
By: Jonas Heese, Charles C.Y. Wang and James Weber
In early 2019, Anthony Campagna, the global director of fundamental research at ISS EVA, a unit of the proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), was preparing to release ISS's analyses of public company performance and CEO compensation ahead of Say...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and...
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- January 2022
- Article
Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting
By: Erik Stafford
The contributions of asset selection and incremental leverage to buyout investment performance are more important than typically assumed or estimated to be. Buyout funds select small firms with distinct value characteristics. Public equities with these characteristics...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated
By: Jesse M. Fried, Paul Ma and Charles C.Y. Wang
The stock market generates less wealth than it appears. We show that total shareholder return (TSR), the standard measure of stock investor performance, substantially exaggerates returns earned by these investors in aggregate, and thus by most investors. The main...
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- December 2021
- Article
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Evidence from Retirement Plans
We study empirical patterns in investment behavior using a comprehensive data set of defined contribution plans. Using plan-level portfolio allocation data for the near universe of 401(k) plans over the period 2009–2019, we document substantial differences in...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns
By: Ki-Soon Choi, Eric So and Charles C.Y. Wang
We study the use of firms’ book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “Canary Categories” for which the reverse is true. The more customers purchase in these categories, the less likely these customers are to return...
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- January–February 2021
- Article
Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality
By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Out of Balance: Do Analysts Issue Sell Recommendations to Manage their Recommendation Distributions?
By: Joseph Pacelli, Charles Chao Kang, Kenneth J. Merkley and Roni Michaely
The lack of objectivity and positive bias in sell-side equity recommendations is an ongoing concern for security regulators and investors. We examine whether analysts attempt to alleviate this concern by maintaining a more balanced distribution of investment...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log-linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the...
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Keywords:
Expected Returns;
Present Value;
Investment Return;
Accounting;
Valuation;
Information;
Framework
- January 2021
- Article
ETF Activity and Informational Efficiency of Underlying Securities
By: Lawrence Glosten, Suresh Nallareddy and Yuan Zou
This paper investigates the effect of exchange-traded funds’ (ETFs’) activity on the short-run informational efficiency of their underlying securities. We find that ETF activity increases short-run informational efficiency for stocks with weak information environments....
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- December 2020
- Article
Stock Market Returns and Consumption
By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Kaveh Majlesi
This paper employs Swedish data containing security level information on households' stock holdings to investigate how consumption responds to changes in stock market returns. We exploit households’ portfolio weights in previous years as an instrument for actual...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation
By: Matthias Regier and Ethan Rouen
We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged...
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- October 2020
- Article
IQ from IP: Simplifying Search in Portfolio Choice
By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
Using a novel database that tracks web traffic on the SEC’s EDGAR servers between 2004 and 2015, we show that mutual fund managers gather information on a very particular subset of firms and insiders, and their surveillance is very persistent over time. This tracking...
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