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- October 2024
- Article
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 5 (October 2024): 872–890.
- September 2024
- Supplement
Allbirds: Decarbonizing Fashion (B)
By: Michael W. Toffel, Kenneth P. Pucker and Stacy Straaberg
The Allbirds: Decarbonizing Fashion (B) case encourages students to assess Allbirds’ product development and go-to-market strategies now that Allbirds is a publicly listed company. The (B) case provides a 2024 update on Allbirds including its initial public offering,... View Details
Keywords: Financial Markets; Initial Public Offering; Global Strategy; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Innovation Strategy; Knowledge Sharing; Distribution; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Going Public; Performance; Diversification; Stocks; Transformation; Fashion Industry; United States; San Francisco; California; Europe; Asia; New Zealand
Toffel, Michael W., Kenneth P. Pucker, and Stacy Straaberg. "Allbirds: Decarbonizing Fashion (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 625-004, September 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Finance Without Exotic Risk
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer
We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, and Andrei Shleifer. "Finance Without Exotic Risk." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33004, September 2024.
- August 2024 (Revised August 2024)
- Case
Discerene Group: Long-Term Public-Markets Investing
By: Luis M. Viceira and Brent Schwarz
This case discusses active investing based on fundamental valuations and price distortions created by market events, and whether contractual terms between investment managers and their investors can help align incentives between long-term investors and active managers.... View Details
- August 2024
- Article
Not a One-Trick Pony: Price Impact of Rating Agency Information
By: Michael Machokoto and Anywhere Sikochi
Prior literature on the informational role of credit rating agencies has largely focused on announcements by the rating agencies regarding rating actions. We take a tangent in this paper and examine the relevance of rating agencies' other information disclosures beyond... View Details
Machokoto, Michael, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Not a One-Trick Pony: Price Impact of Rating Agency Information." Art. 111837. Economics Letters 241 (August 2024).
- 2024
- Working Paper
Primary Capital Market Transactions and Index Funds
By: Marco Sammon and Chris Murray
We document the effects of mechanical buying by CRSP-index-tracking funds on post-IPO returns and IPO deal structure. Leveraging a difference-in-differences-style design built on a 2017 CRSP rule change, we find that expected index fund demand leads fast track IPOs to... View Details
Keywords: Investment Funds; Initial Public Offering; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Financial Markets
Sammon, Marco, and Chris Murray. "Primary Capital Market Transactions and Index Funds." Working Paper, August 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Who Clears the Market When Passive Investors Trade?
By: Marco Sammon and John J. Shim
We find that firms are the primary sellers of shares when index funds are net buyers, providing shares at a nearly one-for-one rate. Rather than provide liquidity, most demand-side institutions trade in the same direction as index funds, especially over long horizons.... View Details
Keywords: Investment Funds; Institutional Investing; Price; Investment Portfolio; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments
Sammon, Marco, and John J. Shim. "Who Clears the Market When Passive Investors Trade?" Working Paper, August 2024.
- July 2024
- Case
Jacqueline Cook at Vendasta: Debating an IPO
By: Reza Satchu, Tom Quinn and Andrew Kosc
In May 2021, after a surge in demand for digital services that prompted high valuations for startups across the Canadian tech sector, Saskatchewan-based Vendasta entered the final stages of the initial public offering (IPO) process. COO Jacqueline Cook had invested her... View Details
Keywords: Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Interpersonal Communication; Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Entrepreneurship; Fairness; Capital Markets; Private Equity; Investment Banking; Stock Options; Financial Markets; Initial Public Offering; Institutional Investing; Price Bubble; Digital Platforms; Digital Transformation; Internet and the Web; Leadership; Growth and Development Strategy; Managerial Roles; Agreements and Arrangements; Going Public; Ownership Stake; Performance Expectations; Work-Life Balance; Strategic Planning; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Rank and Position; Risk and Uncertainty; Opportunities; Happiness; Reputation; Status and Position; Well-being; Information Technology Industry; Retail Industry; Canada
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Golden Revolving Door
By: Ling Cen, Lauren Cohen, Jing Wu and Fan Zhang
Using both the onset of the US-China trade war in 2018 and the most recent Russia-Ukraine war and associated trade tensions, we show a counterintuitive pattern in global trade. Namely, while the average firm trading with these nations significantly decreases their... View Details
Cen, Ling, Lauren Cohen, Jing Wu, and Fan Zhang. "The Golden Revolving Door." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32621, June 2024.
- July 2024
- Article
The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is
By: Alex Chinco and Marco Sammon
Each time a stock gets added to or dropped from a benchmark index, we ask: “How much money would have to be tracking that index to explain the huge spike in rebalancing volume we observe on reconstitution day?” While index funds held 16% of the US stock market in 2021,... View Details
Keywords: Indexing; Passive Investing; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Russell Reconstitution Day; Trading Volume; Information-based Asset Pricing; Investment Funds; Asset Pricing
Chinco, Alex, and Marco Sammon. "The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is." Journal of Financial Economics 157 (July 2024).
- June 2024
- Article
Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms
By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers
Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices, and sometimes for free. Such "non-market" mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with redistributive concerns. Agents... View Details
Akbarpour, Mohammad, Piotr Dworczak, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms." Journal of Political Economy 132, no. 6 (June 2024): 1831–1875. (Authors' names are in certified random order.)
- May 2024
- Case
Naked Wines: The Profit vs. Growth Decision
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Edward A. Meyer
Nick Devlin faced a difficult strategic decision in October 2022. As the CEO of a UK-based subscription business connecting wine drinkers in the US, UK, and Australia with winemakers from around the world (which one journalist called the “Netflix of Wine”), he had to... View Details
Keywords: Profit Vs. Growth; Platform Business; Economies Of Scale; Subscription Business; Wine; Scaling; Racing; Value Creation; Network Effects; Business Startups; Small Business; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Growth Management; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Expansion; Profit; E-commerce; Growth and Development Strategy; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Australia; United Kingdom
- 2024
- Working Paper
Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?
By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Philipp Chvanov
Private Equity (“PE”) received a 10-fold increase in capital flows since the Great Financial Crisis (“GFC”) Investors sought higher nominal returns relative to those they could obtain in the public capital markets. This paper questions the fundamental assumptions... View Details
Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Philipp Chvanov. "Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-066, January 2024.
- April 2024 (Revised July 2024)
- Case
Market Dynamics and Moral Dilemmas: Novo Nordisk’s Weight-Loss Drugs
By: Joseph L. Badaracco, Tom Quinn and John Schultz
Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk was owned by a charitable foundation, and since its founding in the 1920s had focused on producing insulin to treat diabetes. In 2017, however, it released Ozempic, a diabetes treatment with the revolutionary side effect of... View Details
Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Judgments; Values and Beliefs; Global Strategy; Health Care and Treatment; Patents; Growth and Development Strategy; Growth Management; Product Positioning; Supply and Industry; Supply Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Opportunities; Social Issues; Equality and Inequality; Pharmaceutical Industry; Health Industry; Denmark; United States; Europe; China; India; Middle East; North Africa
Badaracco, Joseph L., Tom Quinn, and John Schultz. "Market Dynamics and Moral Dilemmas: Novo Nordisk’s Weight-Loss Drugs." Harvard Business School Case 324-114, April 2024. (Revised July 2024.)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Valuing Stocks With Earnings
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We show that commonly used aggregate earnings are several times as volatile as stock prices
over the last three decades. Movements in the price-earnings ratio are thus entirely explained by
earnings growth and unrelated to future returns. As an alternative to the... View Details
Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Valuing Stocks With Earnings." Working Paper, April 2024.
- March 2024 (Revised July 2024)
- Case
AMC: The Zero Revenue Case
By: C. Fritz Foley and Donal O'Cofaigh
The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic put theatre company AMC’s already perilous financial situation under even further strain. The company’s high levels of debt resulted in a monthly cash-burn which left it facing an imminent Chapter-11 filing in the absence of... View Details
Keywords: Ethics; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Public Equity; Stock Shares; Health Pandemics; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
Foley, C. Fritz, and Donal O'Cofaigh. "AMC: The Zero Revenue Case." Harvard Business School Case 224-069, March 2024. (Revised July 2024.)
- March 2024 (Revised May 2024)
- Case
Amperity: First-Party Data at a Crossroads
By: Elie Ofek, Hema Yoganarasimhan and Alexis Lefort
In the summer of 2023, Amperity management was facing a critical decision on its future direction. Given the dramatic changes occurring within the digital advertising ecosystem, as concerns over consumer privacy placed limits on the ability to engage in third-party... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Technology Adoption; Business Strategy; Digital Marketing; Price; Product; Business or Company Management; Advertising Industry
Ofek, Elie, Hema Yoganarasimhan, and Alexis Lefort. "Amperity: First-Party Data at a Crossroads." Harvard Business School Case 524-017, March 2024. (Revised May 2024.)
- March 2024 (Revised May 2024)
- Case
Masterpiece for the Masses: The First Art Exchange ARTEX
By: Lauren Cohen, Anastasiya Siroochenko (Siro) and Sophia Pan
Yassir Benjelloun-Touimi, CEO of ARTEX, aspired to marry the world of art and finance. Hoping to promote transparent, fractionalized ownership of renowned artwork, the founder had spent years contemplating the birth of an art stock market. This exchange would allow... View Details
Keywords: Trading; Art Market; Art Fair; Tokenization; Democratization; Exchange Traded Fund; Price Monitoring; Trends And Opportunities; Financial Liquidity; Financial Markets; Arts; Financial Strategy; Initial Public Offering; Investment Return; Technological Innovation; Business Model; Trends; Stocks; Assets; Diversification; Trade; Financial Services Industry; Fine Arts Industry; Paris; France
Cohen, Lauren, Anastasiya Siroochenko (Siro), and Sophia Pan. "Masterpiece for the Masses: The First Art Exchange ARTEX." Harvard Business School Case 224-086, March 2024. (Revised May 2024.)
- March 2024 (Revised August 2024)
- Case
Darktrace: Scaling Cybersecurity and AI (A)
By: Jeffrey F. Rayport and Alexis Lefort
In 2023, Darktrace CEO Poppy Gustafsson was contemplating her growth strategy at a leading U.K.-based cybersecurity venture, launched in 2013 by a group of anti-terror cyber specialists, University of Cambridge mathematicians, and artificial intelligence (AI) experts.... View Details
Keywords: Technology; Talent; Scaling; Entrepreneurship; Cybersecurity; Leadership; Business Growth and Maturation; Recruitment; Resignation and Termination; AI and Machine Learning; Growth and Development Strategy; Organizational Culture; Going Public; Technology Industry; United Kingdom; Europe; United States
Rayport, Jeffrey F., and Alexis Lefort. "Darktrace: Scaling Cybersecurity and AI (A)." Harvard Business School Case 824-092, March 2024. (Revised August 2024.)
- February 2024
- Case
Oak Street Health: From Start-up to Strategic Acquisition
By: Leemore S. Dafny and Thomas H. Lee
Oak Street Health opened its first primary care center for seniors in underserved communities in 2013. By 2022 the company had 169 centers and a market valuation exceeding $10 billion. Oak Street created value by accepting risk-adjusted, capitated payments for Medicare... View Details
Dafny, Leemore S., and Thomas H. Lee. "Oak Street Health: From Start-up to Strategic Acquisition." Harvard Business School Case 324-053, February 2024.