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    • All HBS Web  (1,125)
      • Faculty Publications  (208)

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

      By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov
      Predictive model development is understudied despite its importance to modern businesses. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms) as the primary driver of model quality, the value of tools...  View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science
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      Yue, Daniel, Paul Hamilton, and Iavor Bojinov. "Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-029, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Stories, Statistics and Memory

      By: Thomas Graeber, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann
      For most decisions, we rely on information encountered over the course of days, months or years. We consume this information in various forms, including abstract summaries of multiple data points – statistics – and contextualized anecdotes about individual instances...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Information Types; Media; Cognition and Thinking
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      Graeber, Thomas, Christopher Roth, and Florian Zimmermann. "Stories, Statistics and Memory." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      When Less Is More: Using Short-term Signals to Overcome Systematic Bias in Long-run Targeting

      By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
      Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response. Doing so requires firms to identify differences in customer sensitivity, which they often obtain using uplift modeling (i.e., heterogeneous treatment effect...  View Details
      Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "When Less Is More: Using Short-term Signals to Overcome Systematic Bias in Long-run Targeting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-023, October 2022.
      • September 16, 2022
      • Article

      A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties

      By: Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
      The authors analyzed data from multiple large-scale randomized experiments on LinkedIn’s People You May Know algorithm, which recommends new connections to LinkedIn members, to test the extent to which weak ties increased job mobility in the world’s largest...  View Details
      Keywords: Job Mobility; Social Networks; Social Ties; Networks; Personal Development and Career
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      Rajkumar, Karthik, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Sinan Aral. "A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties." Science 377, no. 6612 (September 16, 2022).
      • September 2022
      • Article

      Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews

      By: Dennis W. Campbell and Ruidi Shang
      This paper examines whether information extracted via text-based statistical methods applied to employee reviews left on the website Glassdoor.com can be used to develop indicators of corporate misconduct risk. We argue that inside information on the incidence of...  View Details
      Keywords: Management Accounting; Management Control; Corporate Culture; Corporate Misconduct; Risk Measurement; Organizational Culture; Crime and Corruption; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics
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      Campbell, Dennis W., and Ruidi Shang. "Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 7034–7053.
      • August 29, 2022
      • Other Article

      Income Inequality Is Rising. Are We Even Measuring It Correctly?

      By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, K. Blesch and Oliver P. Hauser
      Income inequality is on the rise in many countries around the world, according to the United Nations. What’s more, disparities in global income were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, with some countries facing greater economic losses than others. Policymakers...  View Details
      Keywords: Income Inequality; Gini Coefficient; COVID-19 Pandemic; Government Administration; Equality and Inequality; Health Pandemics; Measurement and Metrics
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      Jachimowicz, Jon M., K. Blesch, and Oliver P. Hauser. "Income Inequality Is Rising. Are We Even Measuring It Correctly?" Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (August 29, 2022).
      • August 2022
      • Supplement

      Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      This exercise can be used in conjunction with the main case "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing" to facilitate class discussion without requiring data analysis from the students. Instead, the exercise presents reports that were created by the data science team to answer the...  View Details
      Keywords: Pricing; Pricing Algorithms; Dynamic Pricing; Ecommerce; Pricing Strategy; Pricing And Revenue Management; Apparel; Singapore; Startup; Demand Estimation; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Exercise; Price; Internet and the Web; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; Singapore
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations." Harvard Business School Supplement 523-032, August 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Data Poisoning Attacks on Off-Policy Evaluation Methods

      By: Elita Lobo, Harvineet Singh, Marek Petrik, Cynthia Rudin and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      Off-policy Evaluation (OPE) methods are a crucial tool for evaluating policies in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where exploration is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive. However, the extent to which such methods can be trusted under adversarial threats...  View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Cybersecurity; Mathematical Methods
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      Lobo, Elita, Harvineet Singh, Marek Petrik, Cynthia Rudin, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Data Poisoning Attacks on Off-Policy Evaluation Methods." Special Issue on Proceedings of the 38th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2022). Proceedings of Machine Learning Research (PMLR) 180 (2022): 1264–1274.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Nonparametric Subset Scanning for Detection of Heteroscedasticity

      By: Charles R. Doss and Edward McFowland III
      We propose Heteroscedastic Subset Scan (HSS), a novel method for identifying covariates that are responsible for violations of the homoscedasticity assumption in regression settings. Viewing the problem as one of anomalous pattern detection, we use subset scanning...  View Details
      Keywords: Scan Statistics; Anomaly Detection; Regression; Model Diagnostics
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      Doss, Charles R., and Edward McFowland III. "Nonparametric Subset Scanning for Detection of Heteroscedasticity." Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 31, no. 3 (2022): 813–823.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina

      By: Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle
      Many medical decisions during the pandemic were made without the support of causal evidence obtained in clinical trials. We study the case of nebulized ibuprofen (NaIHS), a drug that was extensively used on COVID-19 patients in Argentina amidst wild claims about its...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Drug Treatment; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Decision Making; Outcome or Result; Argentina
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      Calonico, Sebastian, Rafael Di Tella, and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle. "Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30084, May 2022.
      • Article

      Do the Right Firms Survive Bankruptcy?

      By: Samuel Antill
      In U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy cases, firms are either reorganized, acquired, or liquidated. I show that decisions to liquidate often reduce creditor recovery, costing creditors billions of dollars every year. I exploit the within-district random assignment of...  View Details
      Keywords: Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy Reorganization; Recovery Rate; Structural Estimation; Roy Model; 363 Sales; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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      Antill, Samuel. "Do the Right Firms Survive Bankruptcy?" Journal of Financial Economics 144, no. 2 (May 2022): 523–546.
      • March 2022 (Revised July 2022)
      • Module Note

      Exploratory Data Analysis

      By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
      This module note provides an overview of exploratory data analysis for an introduction to data science course. It begins by defining the term "data", and then describes the different types of data that companies work with (structured v. unstructured, categorical v....  View Details
      Keywords: Data Analysis; Data Science; Statistics; Data Visualization; Exploratory Data Analysis; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Michael Parzen, and Paul Hamilton. "Exploratory Data Analysis." Harvard Business School Module Note 622-098, March 2022. (Revised July 2022.)
      • March 2022 (Revised July 2022)
      • Module Note

      Prediction & Machine Learning

      By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
      This note provides an introduction to machine learning for an introductory data science course. The note begins with a description of supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. Then, the note provides a brief explanation of the difference between traditional...  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Data Science; Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Michael Parzen, and Paul Hamilton. "Prediction & Machine Learning." Harvard Business School Module Note 622-101, March 2022. (Revised July 2022.)
      • March 2022 (Revised July 2022)
      • Module Note

      Statistical Inference

      By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
      This note provides an overview of statistical inference for an introductory data science course. First, the note discusses samples and populations. Next the note describes how to calculate confidence intervals for means and proportions. Then it walks through the logic...  View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Statistics; Mathematical Modeling; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Michael Parzen, and Paul Hamilton. "Statistical Inference." Harvard Business School Module Note 622-099, March 2022. (Revised July 2022.)
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Clinician Ambulatory Electronic Health Record Use

      By: A Jay Holmgren, Lance Downing, Mitchell Tang, Christopher Sharp, Christopher Longhurst and Robert S. Huckman
      Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic changed clinician electronic health record (EHR) work in a multitude of ways. To evaluate how, we measure ambulatory clinician EHR use in the United States throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

      Materials and Methods: We use EHR...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Care; Electronic Health Records; Productivity; COVID-19 Pandemic; Health Care and Treatment; Health Pandemics; Information Technology; Performance Productivity; United States
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      Holmgren, A Jay, Lance Downing, Mitchell Tang, Christopher Sharp, Christopher Longhurst, and Robert S. Huckman. "Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Clinician Ambulatory Electronic Health Record Use." Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association 29, no. 3 (March 2022): 453–460.
      • 2022
      • Chapter

      State-Formation, Statist Islam, and Regime Instability: Evidence from Turkey

      By: Kristin Fabbe
      Religion, and particularly the forces of political Islam and state secularism, have been central to discussions of regime stability in the Turkish case. Intense polarization, political instability, and military interventions have propelled Turkey into crisis about once...  View Details
      Keywords: Ottoman Empire; Regime; State Secularism; Political Islam; Democracy; Autocracy; Religion; Government and Politics; Turkey
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      Fabbe, Kristin. "State-Formation, Statist Islam, and Regime Instability: Evidence from Turkey." In The Oxford Handbook of Politics in Muslim Societies, edited by Melani Cammett and Pauline Jones. New York: Oxford University Press, 2022.
      • January 10, 2022
      • Article

      The Link Between Income, Income Inequality, and Prosocial Behavior Around the World: A Multiverse Approach

      By: Lucia Macchia and Ashley V. Whillans
      The questions of whether high-income individuals are more prosocial than low-income individuals and whether income inequality moderates this effect have received extensive attention. We shed new light on this topic by analyzing a large-scale dataset with a...  View Details
      Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Income Inequality; Behavior; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Income
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      Macchia, Lucia, and Ashley V. Whillans. "The Link Between Income, Income Inequality, and Prosocial Behavior Around the World: A Multiverse Approach." Social Psychology (January 10, 2022): 375–386.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes

      By: Arlen Guarin, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia and Jorge Tamayo
      Identifying the effect of physicians’ skills on health outcomes is a challenging task due to the nonrandom sorting between physicians and hospitals. We overcome this challenge by exploiting a Colombian government program that randomly assigned 2,126 physicians to 618...  View Details
      Keywords: Physicians' Health Skills; Health Birth Outcomes; Birthing Outcomes; Experimental Evidence; Health Care and Treatment; Competency and Skills; Outcome or Result; Health Industry; Colombia
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      Guarin, Arlen, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia, and Jorge Tamayo. "The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-015, February 2021. (Revised November 2021.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      How Important Is Editorial Gatekeeping? Evidence from Top Biomedical Journals

      By: Joshua L. Krieger, Kyle R. Myers and Ariel D. Stern
      We examine editors’ influence on the scientific content of academic journals by unpacking the role of three major forces: journals’ stated missions, the aggregate supply of and demand for specific topics, and scientific homophily via editorial gatekeeping. In...  View Details
      Keywords: Jobs and Positions; Operations; Information Publishing; Analysis
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      Krieger, Joshua L., Kyle R. Myers, and Ariel D. Stern. "How Important Is Editorial Gatekeeping? Evidence from Top Biomedical Journals." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-011, September 2021. (Revised January 2023. Accepted at Review of Economics and Statistics.)
      • August 2021
      • Article

      Crowdsourcing Memories: Mixed Methods Research by Cultural Insiders-Epistemological Outsiders

      By: Tarun Khanna, Karim R. Lakhani, Shubhangi Bhadada, Nabil Khan, Saba Kohli Davé, Rasim Alam and Meena Hewett
      This paper examines the role that the two lead authors’ personal connections played in the research methodology and data collection for the Partition Stories Project—a mixed-methods approach to revisiting the much-studied historical trauma of the Partition of British...  View Details
      Keywords: Mixed Methods; Insider-outsiders; Myth Of Informed Objectivity; Hybrid Research; Oral Narratives; Research; Analysis; India
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      Khanna, Tarun, Karim R. Lakhani, Shubhangi Bhadada, Nabil Khan, Saba Kohli Davé, Rasim Alam, and Meena Hewett. "Crowdsourcing Memories: Mixed Methods Research by Cultural Insiders-Epistemological Outsiders." Academy of Management Perspectives 35, no. 3 (August 2021): 384–399.
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