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    • All HBS Web  (1,134)
      • Faculty Publications  (225)

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      • September 2025
      • Article

      Using Satellites and Phones to Evaluate and Promote Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from Smallholder Farms in India

      By: Shawn Cole, Tomoko Harigaya, Grady Killeen and Aparna Krishna
      This paper evaluates a low-cost, customized soil nutrient management advisory service in India. As a methodological contribution, we examine whether and in which settings satellite measurements may be effective at estimating both agricultural yields and treatment... View Details
      Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; India
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      Cole, Shawn, Tomoko Harigaya, Grady Killeen, and Aparna Krishna. "Using Satellites and Phones to Evaluate and Promote Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from Smallholder Farms in India." Journal of Development Economics 176 (September 2025).
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis

      By: Joseph E. Aldy, Forest Reinhardt and Robert N. Stavins
      There is growing recognition of the relative importance of anthropogenic emissions of methane as a contributor to global climate change. An important source of such emissions in some countries, including the United States, is the oil and gas (O&G) sector. This points... View Details
      Keywords: Emission Reduction; Environmental Sustainability; Climate Change; Pollutants; Energy Industry
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      Aldy, Joseph E., Forest Reinhardt, and Robert N. Stavins. "Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33564, March 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Using Satellites and Phones to Evaluate and Promote Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from Smallholder Farms in India

      By: Shawn Cole, Grady Killeen, Tomoko Harigaya and Aparna Krishna
      This paper evaluates a low-cost, customized soil nutrient management advisory service in India. As a methodological contribution, we examine whether and in which settings satellite measurements may be effective at estimating both agricultural yields and treatment... View Details
      Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Technology Adoption; Measurement and Metrics; Analytics and Data Science; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; India
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      Cole, Shawn, Grady Killeen, Tomoko Harigaya, and Aparna Krishna. "Using Satellites and Phones to Evaluate and Promote Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from Smallholder Farms in India." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-035, January 2025.
      • 2025
      • Article

      Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments

      By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
      Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science
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      Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 43, no. 1 (2025): 256–268.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Empirical Guidance: Data Processing and Analysis with Applications in Stata, R, and Python

      By: Melissa Ouellet and Michael W. Toffel
      This paper describes a range of best practices to compile and analyze datasets, and includes some examples in Stata, R, and Python. It is meant to serve as a reference for those getting started in econometrics, and especially those seeking to conduct data analyses in... View Details
      Keywords: Empirical Methods; Empirical Operations; Statistical Methods And Machine Learning; Statistical Interferences; Research Analysts; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods
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      Ouellet, Melissa, and Michael W. Toffel. "Empirical Guidance: Data Processing and Analysis with Applications in Stata, R, and Python." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-010, August 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The New Digital Divide

      By: Mayana Pereira, Shane Greenstein, Raffaella Sadun, Prasanna Tambe, Lucia Ronchi Darre, Tammy Glazer, Allen Kim, Rahul Dodhia and Juan Lavista Ferres
      We build and analyze new metrics of digital usage that leverage telemetry data collected by Microsoft during operating system updates across forty million Windows devices in U.S. households. These measures of US household digital usage are much more comprehensive than... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Measurement and Metrics; Geographic Location; Behavior; Technology Adoption; Demographics
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      Pereira, Mayana, Shane Greenstein, Raffaella Sadun, Prasanna Tambe, Lucia Ronchi Darre, Tammy Glazer, Allen Kim, Rahul Dodhia, and Juan Lavista Ferres. "The New Digital Divide." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32932, September 2024.
      • August 2024
      • Article

      Heuristics on Call: The Impact of Mobile-Phone-Based Business-Management Advice

      By: Shawn Cole, Mukta Joshi and Antoinette Schoar
      There is growing evidence that business training for micro-entrepreneurs can be effective. However, in-person training can be expensive and imposes costs on the target beneficiaries. This paper presents the results of a two-site randomized evaluation of a light-touch,... View Details
      Keywords: Training; Entrepreneurship; Mobile and Wireless Technology; India; Philippines
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      Cole, Shawn, Mukta Joshi, and Antoinette Schoar. "Heuristics on Call: The Impact of Mobile-Phone-Based Business-Management Advice." World Bank Economic Review 38, no. 3 (August 2024): 580–597.
      • July–August 2024
      • Article

      Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals

      By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
      Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details
      Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing Strategy
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals." Marketing Science 43, no. 4 (July–August 2024): 863–884.
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms

      By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers
      Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices, and sometimes for free. Such "non-market" mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with redistributive concerns. Agents... View Details
      Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Welfare; Mathematical Methods; Market Design; Cost vs Benefits
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      Akbarpour, Mohammad, Piotr Dworczak, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms." Journal of Political Economy 132, no. 6 (June 2024): 1831–1875. (Authors' names are in certified random order.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda

      By: Saheel Chodavadia, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr and Louis Maiden
      Immigrants contribute disproportionately to entrepreneurship in many countries, accounting for a quarter of new employer businesses in the US. We review recent research on the measurement of immigrant entrepreneurship, the traits of immigrant founders, their economic... View Details
      Keywords: Immigrant Employment; Immigration; Entrepreneurship; Demographics; Innovation and Invention
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      Chodavadia, Saheel, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr, and Louis Maiden. "Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-068, April 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      What Is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence

      By: Luis Armona, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica and Jesse M. Shapiro
      We study newsworthiness in theory and practice. We focus on situations in which a news outlet observes the realization of a state of the world and must decide whether to report the realization to a consumer who pays an opportunity cost to consume the report. The... View Details
      Keywords: News; Mathematical Methods; Prejudice and Bias; Media and Broadcasting Industry
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      Armona, Luis, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "What Is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32512, May 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Effects of Medical Debt Relief: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments

      By: Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Francis Wong and Wesley Yin
      Two in five Americans have medical debt, nearly half of whom owe at least $2,500. Concerned by this burden, governments and private donors have undertaken large, high-profile efforts to relieve medical debt. We partnered with RIP Medical Debt to conduct two randomized... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Outcome or Result; Well-being; Personal Finance
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      Kluender, Raymond, Neale Mahoney, Francis Wong, and Wesley Yin. "The Effects of Medical Debt Relief: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32315, April 2024.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits

      By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
      Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods
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      Liang, Biyonka, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-057, March 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Anytime-Valid Inference in Linear Models and Regression-Adjusted Causal Inference

      By: Michael Lindon, Dae Woong Ham, Martin Tingley and Iavor I. Bojinov
      Linear regression adjustment is commonly used to analyze randomized controlled experiments due to its efficiency and robustness against model misspecification. Current testing and interval estimation procedures leverage the asymptotic distribution of such estimators to... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science
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      Lindon, Michael, Dae Woong Ham, Martin Tingley, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "Anytime-Valid Inference in Linear Models and Regression-Adjusted Causal Inference." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-060, March 2024.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits

      By: Dae Woong Ham, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon and Martin Tingley
      Multi-arm bandits are gaining popularity as they enable real-world sequential decision-making across application areas, including clinical trials, recommender systems, and online decision-making. Consequently, there is an increased desire to use the available... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods
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      Ham, Dae Woong, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon, and Martin Tingley. "Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-056, March 2024.
      • March 2024
      • Article

      Human Capital Affects Religious Identity: Causal Evidence from Kenya

      By: Livia Alfonsi, Michal Bauer, Julie Chytilová and Edward Miguel
      We study how human capital and economic conditions causally affect the choice of religious denomination. We utilize a longitudinal dataset monitoring the religious history of more than 5,000 Kenyans over 20 years, in tandem with a randomized experiment (deworming) that... View Details
      Keywords: Religion; Human Capital; Developing Countries and Economies; Welfare; Kenya
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      Alfonsi, Livia, Michal Bauer, Julie Chytilová, and Edward Miguel. "Human Capital Affects Religious Identity: Causal Evidence from Kenya." Art. 103215. Journal of Development Economics 167 (March 2024).
      • February 2024
      • Article

      Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence

      By: Brian Fabo, Marina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf and Ľuboš Pástor
      Fabo et al. (2021) show that papers written by central bank researchers find quantitative easing (QE) to be more effective than papers written by academics. Weale and Wieladek (2022) show that a subset of these results lose statistical significance when OLS regressions... View Details
      Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Research; Mathematical Methods; Perception; Banks and Banking; Body of Literature
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      Fabo, Brian, Marina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf, and Ľuboš Pástor. "Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence." Art. 107065. Journal of Banking & Finance 159 (February 2024).
      • January 2024
      • Article

      Subset Scanning for Multi-Trait Analysis Using GWAS Summary Statistics

      By: Rui Cao, Evan Olawsky, Edward McFowland III, Erin Marcotte, Logan Spector and Tianzhong Yang
      Multi-trait analysis has been shown to have greater statistical power than single-trait analysis. Most of the existing multi-trait analysis methods only work with a limited number of traits and usually prioritize high statistical power over identifying relevant traits,... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Health Disorders
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      Cao, Rui, Evan Olawsky, Edward McFowland III, Erin Marcotte, Logan Spector, and Tianzhong Yang. "Subset Scanning for Multi-Trait Analysis Using GWAS Summary Statistics." Bioinformatics 40, no. 1 (January 2024).
      • 2023
      • Article

      MoPe: Model Perturbation-based Privacy Attacks on Language Models

      By: Marvin Li, Jason Wang, Jeffrey Wang and Seth Neel
      Recent work has shown that Large Language Models (LLMs) can unintentionally leak sensitive information present in their training data. In this paper, we present Model Perturbations (MoPe), a new method to identify with high confidence if a given text is in the training... View Details
      Keywords: Large Language Model; AI and Machine Learning; Cybersecurity
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      Li, Marvin, Jason Wang, Jeffrey Wang, and Seth Neel. "MoPe: Model Perturbation-based Privacy Attacks on Language Models." Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (2023): 13647–13660.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      How People Use Statistics

      By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
      We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Microeconomics; Mathematical Methods; Behavioral Finance
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      Bordalo, Pedro, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "How People Use Statistics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31631, August 2023.
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