Publications

Publications

Filter Results : (59) Arrow Down

Show Results For

Simulation Models Remove Simulation Models →

Page 1 of 59 Results →

Are you looking for?

→ Search All HBS Web
  • July 2023
  • Article

Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations
By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still...  View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science
Related
  • June 2023 (Revised September 2023)
  • Simulation

Managing the Customer Journey Marketing Simulation: Adobe's Data-Driven Operating Model (DDOM)
By: Sunil Gupta, Rajiv Lal and Celine Chammas
Adobe started monitoring Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), one of its primary metrics, when it shifted from selling its software in a box to selling the software as a subscription-based cloud service. They wanted to know when, where, and how much to invest in marketing....  View Details
Keywords: Customer Acquisition; Customer Journey; Marketing Strategy; Marketing; Customer Focus and Relationships; Budgets and Budgeting
Related
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to...  View Details
Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior
Related
  • April 2023
  • Article

The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity
By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'...  View Details
Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Firm Level Data; Innovation; Productivity; Exporting; Importing; Credit Constraints; Currency Exchange Rate; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity
Related
  • February 2023
  • Supplement

Shanty Real Estate: Teaching Note Supplement
By: Michael Luca
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
Related
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds in two steps. We first...  View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods
Related
  • November 2022
  • Article

Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings
By: Kristin Blesch, Oliver P. Hauser and Jon M. Jachimowicz
Prior research has found mixed results on how economic inequality is related to various outcomes. These contradicting findings may in part stem from a predominant focus on the Gini coefficient, which only narrowly captures inequality. Here, we conceptualize the...  View Details
Keywords: Economic Inequalty; Gini Coefficient; Income Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Social Issues; Health; Status and Position
Related
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to...  View Details
Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing
Related
  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 1
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Data-driven Decision-making; Decisions; Negotiation; Bids and Bidding; Valuation; Consumer Behavior; Real Estate Industry
Related
  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 2
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
Related
  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 3
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
Related
  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 1
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
Related
  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 2
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Market Timing; Measurement and Metrics
Related
  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 3
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
Related
  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for Homebuyer
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Market Timing; Measurement and Metrics
Related
  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for iBuyer
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing; Decision Making
Related
  • October–December 2022
  • Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem
By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed...  View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
Related
  • 2022
  • Article

Nonparametric Subset Scanning for Detection of Heteroscedasticity
By: Charles R. Doss and Edward McFowland III
We propose Heteroscedastic Subset Scan (HSS), a novel method for identifying covariates that are responsible for violations of the homoscedasticity assumption in regression settings. Viewing the problem as one of anomalous pattern detection, we use subset scanning...  View Details
Keywords: Scan Statistics; Anomaly Detection; Regression; Model Diagnostics
Related
  • March 2022
  • Article

Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models
By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless...  View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods
Related
  • March 2022
  • Article

Where to Locate COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Facilities?
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Michael Lingzhi Li and Alessandro Previero
The outbreak of COVID-19 led to a record-breaking race to develop a vaccine. However, the limited vaccine capacity creates another massive challenge: how to distribute vaccines to mitigate the near-end impact of the pandemic? In the United States in particular, the new...  View Details
Keywords: Vaccines; COVID-19; Health Care and Treatment; Health Pandemics; Performance Effectiveness; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods
Related

Are you looking for?

→ Search All HBS Web