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Publications

Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (126)
    • Faculty Publications  (18)

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    • All HBS Web  (126)
      • Faculty Publications  (18)

      Robust Optimization Remove Robust Optimization →

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      • 2023
      • Article

      Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recourse

      By: Martin Pawelczyk, Teresa Datta, Johannes van-den-Heuvel, Gjergji Kasneci and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As machine learning models are increasingly being employed to make consequential decisions in real-world settings, it becomes critical to ensure that individuals who are adversely impacted (e.g., loan denied) by the predictions of these models are provided with a means...  View Details
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      Pawelczyk, Martin, Teresa Datta, Johannes van-den-Heuvel, Gjergji Kasneci, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recourse." International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) (2023).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Investment Committee Voting and the Financing of Innovation

      By: Andrey Malenko, Ramana Nanda, Matthew Rhodes-Kropf and Savitar Sundaresan
      We provide novel evidence on voting practices used by the investment committees of prominent venture capital investors in the U.S. A substantial share of these VCs use a voting rule for seed and early stage investments where a single `champion' is sufficient for the...  View Details
      Keywords: Optimal Voting Rules; Innovation and Invention; Venture Capital; Investment; Decision Making; Voting
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      Malenko, Andrey, Ramana Nanda, Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, and Savitar Sundaresan. "Investment Committee Voting and the Financing of Innovation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-131, June 2021.
      • 2021
      • Article

      Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation

      By: Benjamin B. Lockwood, Afras Sial and Matthew C. Weinzierl
      Economists typically check the robustness of their results by comparing them across plausible ranges of parameter values and model structures. A preferable approach to robustness—for the purposes of policymaking and evaluation—is to design policy that takes these...  View Details
      Keywords: Optimal Taxation; Income Tax; Social Welfare; Elasticity; Income; Taxation; Policy
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      Lockwood, Benjamin B., Afras Sial, and Matthew C. Weinzierl. "Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation." Tax Policy and the Economy 35 (2021).
      • January 2021
      • Article

      Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times

      By: Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
      What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? We present a model of delegation within the firm to show that the effect is ambiguous. The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information...  View Details
      Keywords: Decentralization; Growth; Turbulence; Great Recession; Organizational Design; System Shocks; Economic Growth; Performance
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      Aghion, Philippe, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 13, no. 1 (January 2021): 133–169.
      • Article

      Robust and Stable Black Box Explanations

      By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Nino Arsov and Osbert Bastani
      As machine learning black boxes are increasingly being deployed in real-world applications, there has been a growing interest in developing post hoc explanations that summarize the behaviors of these black boxes. However, existing algorithms for generating such...  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Black Box Models; Framework
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      Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Nino Arsov, and Osbert Bastani. "Robust and Stable Black Box Explanations." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 37th (2020): 5628–5638. (Published in PMLR, Vol. 119.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation

      By: Benjami Lockwood, Afras Y. Sial and Matthew C. Weinzierl
      Economists typically check the robustness of their results by comparing them across plausible ranges of parameter values and model structures. A preferable approach to robustness—for the purposes of policymaking and evaluation—is to design policy that takes these...  View Details
      Keywords: Optimal Taxation; Robust Optimization; Taxation; Income; Policy; Design
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      Lockwood, Benjami, Afras Y. Sial, and Matthew C. Weinzierl. "Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28098, November 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments

      By: Iavor I Bojinov, David Simchi-Levi and Jinglong Zhao
      In switchback experiments, a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to a random treatment, measures its response, and repeats the procedure for several periods to determine which treatment leads to the best outcome. Although practitioners have widely adopted...  View Details
      Keywords: Switchback Experiments; Design; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., David Simchi-Levi, and Jinglong Zhao. "Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-034, September 2020.
      • November 2018 (Revised May 2019)
      • Case

      California Closets: Organizing the Customer Experience

      By: Boris Groysberg and Annelena Lobb
      California Closets had used robust net promoter score (NPS) data, surveyed across its locations, to create a more consistent and satisfying customer experience. CEO Bill Barton wanted to further optimize the customer experience around best practices. He also wanted to...  View Details
      Keywords: Net Promoter Score; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Satisfaction; Customers; Acquisition; Demographics; Strategy
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      Groysberg, Boris, and Annelena Lobb. "California Closets: Organizing the Customer Experience." Harvard Business School Case 419-004, November 2018. (Revised May 2019.)
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Opportunistic Returns and Dynamic Pricing: Empirical Evidence from Online Retailing in Emerging Markets

      By: Chaithanya Bandi, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe and Zhiji Xu
      We investigate how dynamic pricing can lead to more product returns in the online retail industry. Using detailed sales data of more than two million transactions from the Indian online retail market, where price promotions are very common, we document two types of...  View Details
      Keywords: Cash On Delivery; Dynamic Pricing; Online Retail; Payment Methods; Strategic Customer Behavior; Opportunistic Returns; Price; Policy; Consumer Behavior; Emerging Markets; Retail Industry
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      Bandi, Chaithanya, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe, and Zhiji Xu. "Opportunistic Returns and Dynamic Pricing: Empirical Evidence from Online Retailing in Emerging Markets." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-030, September 2018.
      • Article

      Popular Acceptance of Inequality Due to Innate Brute Luck and Support for Classical Benefit-based Taxation

      By: Matthew C. Weinzierl
      U.S. survey respondents' views on distributive justice differ in two specific, related ways from what is conventionally assumed in modern optimal tax research. When expressing their preferences over allocations in stylized, hypothetical scenarios meant to isolate key...  View Details
      Keywords: Optimal Taxation; Welfarism; Luck; Benefit-based Taxation; Taxation; Equality and Inequality; Attitudes
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      Weinzierl, Matthew C. "Popular Acceptance of Inequality Due to Innate Brute Luck and Support for Classical Benefit-based Taxation." Journal of Public Economics 155 (November 2017): 54–63. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-104, March 2016; revised July 2016, and NBER Working Paper Series, No. 22462, July 2016. See Notes on Fortune article.)
      • May 2017
      • Article

      Experimental Evidence of Pooling Outcomes Under Information Asymmetry

      By: William Schmidt and Ryan W. Buell
      Operational decisions under information asymmetry can signal a firm's prospects to less-informed parties, such as investors, customers, competitors, and regulators. Consequently, managers in these settings often face a tradeoff between making an optimal decision and...  View Details
      Keywords: Behavioral Decision Research; Information Asymmetry; Signaling; Decision Choices and Conditions; Alignment
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      Schmidt, William, and Ryan W. Buell. "Experimental Evidence of Pooling Outcomes Under Information Asymmetry." Management Science 63, no. 5 (May 2017): 1586–1605.
      • October 2011
      • Article

      The Surprising Power of Age-Dependent Taxes

      By: Matthew C. Weinzierl
      This article provides a new, empirically driven application of the dynamic Mirrleesian framework by studying a feasible and potentially powerful tax reform: age-dependent labor income taxation. I show analytically how age dependence improves policy on both the...  View Details
      Keywords: Taxation; Policy; Age; Income; Mathematical Methods; Welfare; United States
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      Weinzierl, Matthew C. "The Surprising Power of Age-Dependent Taxes." Review of Economic Studies 78, no. 4 (October 2011): 1490–1518. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-114, May 2011.)
      • February 2009
      • Article

      Optimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign's willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming...  View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Motivation and Incentives; Decisions; Emerging Markets; Balance and Stability; Earnings Management; Policy; Interest Rates; International Finance; Cost
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Optimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt." Journal of International Economics 77, no. 1 (February 2009): 23–36. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-010, 2006 and NBER Working Paper No. 13216.)
      • November 2007
      • Background Note

      Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman

      By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford
      Describes a practical method for asset allocation that is more robust to estimation errors than the traditional implementation of mean-variance optimization with sample means and covariances. The Bayesian inspired Black-Litterman model is described after introducing...  View Details
      Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Portfolio; Mathematical Methods
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      Coval, Joshua D., and Erik Stafford. "Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-085, November 2007.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Optimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign's willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming...  View Details
      Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Liquidity; International Finance; Emerging Markets; Mathematical Methods
      Citation
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Optimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13216, July 2007.
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments

      By: Iavor I Bojinov, David Simchi-Levi and Jinglong Zhao
      In switchback experiments, a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to a random treatment, measures its response, and repeats the procedure for several periods to determine which treatment leads to the best outcome. Although practitioners have widely adopted...  View Details
      Keywords: Switchback Experiments; Design; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
      Citation
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., David Simchi-Levi, and Jinglong Zhao. "Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments." Management Science (forthcoming). (Pre-published online November 1, 2022.)
      • Research Summary

      Optimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt (with Fabio Kanczuk)

      By: Laura Alfaro
      Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. Some of the implications of this analysis, however, may not be generalized once one considers the joint decision to hold debt and reserves by a...  View Details
      • Research Summary

      Strength of Incentives

      By: Jerry R. Green
      When economists analyze the incentive properties of decision making systems they assume that all economic agents are capable of optimizing their decisions and that they respond without error to the incentives that the system creates. In this project, Jerry R. Green...  View Details
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