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- Faculty Publications (142)
- 2022
- Article
Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns
By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
Using measures of physical risk from climate change, we develop a methodology to allocate currency pairs according to a country’s vulnerability and construct portfolios with decreasing vulnerability to physical risk. We show that non-G10 currencies are more vulnerable...
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Keywords:
Climate Finance;
Vulnerabilities;
Currencies;
Foreign Exchange;
Climate Change;
Currency;
Natural Disasters
Cheema-Fox, Alex, George Serafeim, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns." Financial Analysts Journal 78, no. 4 (2022): 37–58.
- October 2022
- Case
Sustainable Finance at Itau BBA
By: George Serafeim, Maria Loumioti and Benjamin Maletta
As of August 2022, the Itau BBA had structured dozens of sustainability linked bonds, which made future interest payments a function of the borrower meeting a target for a sustainability metric, and had solidified its reputation as a pioneer of sustainable finance in...
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Keywords:
Sustainable Finance;
Corporate Social Responsibility;
Environmental Sustainability;
Growth Strategy;
Debt Contracting;
Performance Metrics;
Risk Assessment;
ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance;
Financial Instruments;
Risk Management;
Debt Securities;
Measurement and Metrics;
Banking Industry;
Pulp and Paper Industry;
Latin America
Serafeim, George, Maria Loumioti, and Benjamin Maletta. "Sustainable Finance at Itau BBA." Harvard Business School Case 123-036, October 2022.
- September 2022
- Article
Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews
By: Dennis W. Campbell and Ruidi Shang
This paper examines whether information extracted via text-based statistical methods applied to employee reviews left on the website Glassdoor.com can be used to develop indicators of corporate misconduct risk. We argue that inside information on the incidence of...
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Keywords:
Management Accounting;
Management Control;
Corporate Culture;
Corporate Misconduct;
Risk Measurement;
Organizational Culture;
Crime and Corruption;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Measurement and Metrics
Campbell, Dennis W., and Ruidi Shang. "Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 7034–7053.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies
By: Ishita Sen, Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva and Sangmin Oh
Homeowners’ insurance provides households financial protection from climate losses. To improve access and affordability, state regulators impose price controls on insurance companies. Using novel data, we construct a new measure of rate setting frictions for individual...
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Keywords:
Climate Risk;
Homeowners' Insurance;
Price Controls;
Financial Regulation;
Cross-subsidization;
Climate Change;
Household;
Insurance;
Price;
Governance Controls;
Financial Institutions;
United States
Sen, Ishita, Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva, and Sangmin Oh. "Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 3762235, June 2022. (Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Finance.)
- March 2022 (Revised January 2023)
- Case
Innovation at Moog Inc.
This case focuses on the challenges of incentivizing innovation within Moog, an engineering company based in New York state that designs and builds guidance systems for space, air, and land-based travel. The case enables students to grapple with the challenges of using...
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Keywords:
Innovation;
Innovation Lab;
Innovation Management;
Motivation;
Incentives;
Culture;
Compensation;
Compensation And Benefits;
Scalability;
Business Growth and Maturation;
Collaborative Innovation and Invention;
Independent Innovation and Invention;
Innovation and Management;
Innovation Leadership;
Innovation Strategy;
Organizational Culture;
Performance Consistency;
Performance Effectiveness;
Performance Efficiency;
Performance Productivity;
Performance Evaluation;
Creativity;
Motivation and Incentives;
Aerospace Industry;
Transportation Industry;
United States
Hall, Brian J., Ashley V. Whillans, Davis Heniford, Dominika Randle, and Caroline Witten. "Innovation at Moog Inc." Harvard Business School Case 922-040, March 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
- Article
Policies to Influence Perceptions about COVID-19 Risk: The Case of Maps
By: Claudia Engel, Jonathan Rodden and Marco Tabellini
Choropleth disease maps have become an important tool for informing the public about the risks posed by COVID-19. In a survey conducted in the U.S. state of Georgia in June 2020, we randomly assigned respondents to view either of two maps. The first one reported...
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Engel, Claudia, Jonathan Rodden, and Marco Tabellini. "Policies to Influence Perceptions about COVID-19 Risk: The Case of Maps." Science Advances 8, no. 11 (March 18, 2022).
- 2022
- Chapter
Measuring Compliance Risk and the Emergence of Analytics
By: Eugene F. Soltes
Corporate compliance manages a diverse set of regulatory and reputational concerns ranging from fraud to privacy to discrimination. However, effectively managing such risks has often been hampered by a lack of adequate information about when, where, and why misconduct...
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Keywords:
Compliance;
Risk;
Analytics;
Governance Compliance;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Risk Management;
Analytics and Data Science
Soltes, Eugene F. "Measuring Compliance Risk and the Emergence of Analytics." Chap. 8 in Measuring Compliance: Assessing Corporate Crime and Misconduct Prevention, edited by Melissa Rorie and Benjamin van Rooij, 137–152. Cambridge University Press, 2022.
- 2022
- Article
Missing Novelty in Drug Development
By: Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to...
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Keywords:
Drug Development;
Risk Aversion;
Research and Development;
Innovation and Invention;
Investment;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Krieger, Joshua, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Missing Novelty in Drug Development." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 2 (February 2022): 636–679.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and...
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McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, January 2022.
- Article
Pattern Detection in the Activation Space for Identifying Synthesized Content
By: Celia Cintas, Skyler Speakman, Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Victor Akinwande, Edward McFowland III and Komminist Weldemariam
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have recently achieved unprecedented success in photo-realistic image synthesis from low-dimensional random noise. The ability to synthesize high-quality content at a large scale brings potential risks as the generated samples may...
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Cintas, Celia, Skyler Speakman, Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Victor Akinwande, Edward McFowland III, and Komminist Weldemariam. "Pattern Detection in the Activation Space for Identifying Synthesized Content." Pattern Recognition Letters 153 (January 2022): 207–213.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power
By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
Claims about the market power of bank deposits in the banking literature are numerous and far reaching. Recently, a causal narrative has emerged in the banking literature: market power in bank deposits, measured as imperfect pass-through of short-term market rates on...
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Keywords:
Bank Deposits;
Market Power;
Net Interest Margin (NIM);
Banks and Banking;
Interest Rates;
Risk and Uncertainty
Begenau, Juliane, and Erik Stafford. "Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-039, November 2021.
- October 2021
- Article
Directors' Perceptions of Board Effectiveness and Internal Operations
By: J. Yo-Jud Cheng, Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Rajesh Vijayaraghavan
We contribute to the growing literature on the effectiveness of corporate boards by examining the effect of two insights that have been largely unexplored in prior studies that use public data. First, since boards’ responsibilities are wide-ranging, more holistic...
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Keywords:
Boards Of Directors;
Corporate Governance;
Governing and Advisory Boards;
Performance Effectiveness;
Perception
Cheng, J. Yo-Jud, Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy, and Rajesh Vijayaraghavan. "Directors' Perceptions of Board Effectiveness and Internal Operations." Management Science 67, no. 10 (October 2021): 6399–6420.
- October 2021
- Article
Shareholder Activism and Firms' Voluntary Disclosure of Climate Change Risks
By: Caroline Flammer, Michael W. Toffel and Kala Viswanathan
This paper examines whether—in the absence of mandated disclosure requirements—shareholder activism can elicit greater disclosure of firms’ exposure to climate change risks. We find that environmental shareholder activism increases the voluntary disclosure of climate...
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Keywords:
Transparency;
Reporting;
Shareholder Engagement;
Shareholder Activism;
Climate Change;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Environmental Management;
Investment Activism;
Corporate Disclosure;
Communication Strategy;
Information Publishing;
Measurement and Metrics;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Problems and Challenges;
United States
Flammer, Caroline, Michael W. Toffel, and Kala Viswanathan. "Shareholder Activism and Firms' Voluntary Disclosure of Climate Change Risks." Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 10 (October 2021): 1850–1879. (Featured in Harvard Business Review.)
- August 2021 (Revised April 2022)
- Case
Intenseye: Powering Workplace Health and Safety with AI
By: Michael W. Toffel and Youssef Abdel Aal
Intenseye was a Turkey-based technology startup that deployed machine learning algorithms to workplace camera feeds in order to identify unsafe worker actions and unsafe working conditions, in order to help improve worker safety. The case describes how Intenseye’s...
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Keywords:
Privacy;
Product Development;
Operations;
Technological Innovation;
Value Creation;
Production;
Distribution;
Safety;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Technology Industry;
Manufacturing Industry;
Distribution Industry;
Turkey;
Middle East;
United States
Toffel, Michael W., and Youssef Abdel Aal. "Intenseye: Powering Workplace Health and Safety with AI." Harvard Business School Case 622-037, August 2021. (Revised April 2022.)
- August 2021
- Article
Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds
By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen and Umit Gurun
We provide evidence that bond fund managers misclassify their holdings, and that these misclassifications have a real and significant impact on investor capital flows. In particular, many funds report more investment grade assets than are actually held in their...
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Keywords:
Mutual Funds;
Economics;
Finance;
Measurement and Metrics;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Financial Services Industry
Chen, Huaizhi, Lauren Cohen, and Umit Gurun. "Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds." Journal of Finance 76, no. 4 (August 2021): 1699–1730. (Winner of the Best Paper Prize at the University of Cambridge Consortium on Asset Management, 2020; Winner of the Financial Management Association Best Paper Prize in Quantitative Investments, 2020.)
- 2021
- Article
Decarbonizing Everything
By: Alex Cheema-Fox, Bridget LaPerla, George Serafeim, David Turkington and Hui (Stacie) Wang
We analyze how the use of different climate risk measures leads to different portfolio carbon outcomes and risk-adjusted returns. Our findings are synthesized in a rules-based investment framework, which selects a different type of climate metric across industries and...
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Keywords:
Climate Risk;
ESG;
ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance;
ESG Disclosure;
ESG Disclosure Metrics;
ESG Ratings;
Investing;
Investing For Impact;
Investment Strategy;
Environment;
Decarbonization;
Climate Change;
Environmental Sustainability;
Environmental Management;
Environmental Accounting;
Investment;
Strategy;
Investment Portfolio;
Investment Return
Cheema-Fox, Alex, Bridget LaPerla, George Serafeim, David Turkington, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Decarbonizing Everything." Financial Analysts Journal 77, no. 3 (2021): 93–108.
- 2021
- Article
Fair Influence Maximization: A Welfare Optimization Approach
By: Aida Rahmattalabi, Shahin Jabbari, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Phebe Vayanos, Max Izenberg, Ryan Brown, Eric Rice and Milind Tambe
Several behavioral, social, and public health interventions, such as suicide/HIV prevention or community preparedness against natural disasters, leverage social network information to maximize outreach. Algorithmic influence maximization techniques have been proposed...
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Rahmattalabi, Aida, Shahin Jabbari, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Phebe Vayanos, Max Izenberg, Ryan Brown, Eric Rice, and Milind Tambe. "Fair Influence Maximization: A Welfare Optimization Approach." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 35th (2021).
- January–February 2021
- Article
Compensation Packages That Actually Drive Performance
By: Boris Groysberg, Sarah Abbott, Michael R. Marino and Metin Aksoy
By aligning executives’ financial incentives with company strategy, a firm can inspire its management to deliver superior results. But it can be hard to get pay packages right. In this article four experts break down the key elements of compensation and explain how to...
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Keywords:
Executive Compensation;
Compensation and Benefits;
Motivation and Incentives;
Strategy;
Performance
Groysberg, Boris, Sarah Abbott, Michael R. Marino, and Metin Aksoy. "Compensation Packages That Actually Drive Performance." Harvard Business Review 99, no. 1 (January–February 2021): 102–111.
- June 2021
- Article
From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg and Cynthia Zeng
The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at...
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Health Pandemics;
AI and Machine Learning;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Analytics and Data Science
Bertsimas, Dimitris, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg, and Cynthia Zeng. "From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19." Health Care Management Science 24, no. 2 (June 2021): 253–272.
- August 2020
- Article
Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy
By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and...
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Keywords:
Risk-centric Business Cycles;
Cross-section Of Equities;
Real Risk-free Rate;
Real Investment;
Financial Markets;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Perception;
Investment
Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).