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- February 2023
- Article
OTC Intermediaries
By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter (OTC) market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market...
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- January 2023
- Case
Velong: Rethinking 'Made in China'
By: Krishna G. Palepu, Nancy Hua Dai and Billy Chan
Velong is a supplier of kitchen equipment and backyard grills for major global brands and store brands of large western retailers. In light of the Covid-related disruptions to the global supply chains, and the evolving trade tensions between China and the Western...
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Keywords:
Globalization;
Supply Chain Management;
Risk Management;
Manufacturing Industry;
China;
India;
Mexico;
Turkey;
Viet Nam
- January 2023
- Supplement
Organizational Climate Transition Risk Model
By: George Serafeim and Benjamin Maletta
- January 2023
- Supplement
The END Fund (B)
By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Courtney Han
Founded in 2012, the END fund focused on eliminating five Neglected Tropical Diseases that accounted for 80% of the tropical diseases affecting nearly 1.5 billion people worldwide. Its roughly $25 million/year annual budget was fully committed when it got news that the...
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- January 2023
- Case
The END Fund: To Eliminate Neglected Tropical Diseases
By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Courtney Han
Founded in 2012, the END fund focused on eliminating five Neglected Tropical Diseases that accounted for 80% of the tropical diseases affecting nearly 1.5 billion people worldwide. Its roughly $25 million/year annual budget was fully committed when it got news that the...
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- January 2023
- Case
Cleave Therapeutics: Taking a Risk on Oncology Drug Discovery
By: Regina Herzlinger and Brian Walker
How can a successful executive assess her next move as the CEO of a firm with a promising and yet uncertain new drug? Amy Burroughs’ mandate to find a therapeutic window for Cleave Therapeutics oncology drug was on track but faced an uncertain future. Overseeing the...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Public Perception and Autonomous Vehicle Liability
By: Julian De Freitas, Xilin Zhou, Margherita Atzei, Shoshana Boardman and Luigi Di Lillo
The deployment of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and the accompanying societal and economic benefits will greatly depend on how much liability AV firms will have to carry for accidents involving these vehicles, which in turn impacts their insurability and associated...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’
In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research...
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- December 2022
- Technical Note
Risks and Opportunities from the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: A Business Analysis Framework
By: George Serafeim
The transition to a low carbon economy introduces many risks and opportunities for businesses. Risks emerge from regulatory actions, such as carbon taxes and cap and trade systems, technological innovation that develop alternatives for customers making existing...
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Keywords:
Risk Assessment;
Opportunities;
Environmental Sustainability;
Carbon Footprint;
Risk Management;
Competitive Dynamics;
Business Analysis;
Climate Change;
Accounting;
Finance;
Valuation;
Business and Shareholder Relations;
Technological Innovation;
Transition;
Product Positioning;
Renewable Energy;
Analysis
- December 7, 2022
- Article
Why Decentralized Crypto Platforms Are Weathering the Crash
By: Shai Bernstein and Scott Duke Kominers
In the past year, crypto markets dropped from $2.9 trillion in value to around $800 billion. In the wake of the collapse, crypto lenders and exchanges have been accused of fraud and other wrongdoing. What went wrong? One factor is competition. In theory, competition...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries' supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence...
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- December 2022
- Article
Does Industry Employment of Active Regulators Weaken Oversight?
By: Jonas Heese
I study whether industry employment of active regulators weakens oversight. To examine this question, I exploit that the Financial Reporting Enforcement Panel (FREP), the German capital-market regulator responsible for enforcing public firms’ compliance with accounting...
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- 2022
- Article
Leadership & Overconfidence
By: Don A Moore and Max H. Bazerman
Expressions of confidence can give leaders credibility. In the political realm, they can earn votes and public approval for decisions made in office. Such support is justified when the confidence displayed is truly a sign that a leader (whether a candidate or an...
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- December 2022
- Article
Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics
By: Cheng Gao and Rory McDonald
In nascent industries—whose new technologies are often poorly understood
by regulators—contending with regulatory uncertainty can be crucial to organizational survival and growth. Prior research on nonmarket strategy has largely
focused on established firms in mature...
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- 2022
- Article
Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns
By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
Using measures of physical risk from climate change, we develop a methodology to allocate currency pairs according to a country’s vulnerability and construct portfolios with decreasing vulnerability to physical risk. We show that non-G10 currencies are more vulnerable...
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- November 2022
- Article
Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains
Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money, reputation). In...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans
By: Maria Loumioti and George Serafeim
Sustainability-linked loans (i.e., syndicated loans for which pricing is linked to a sustainability performance indicator) have rapidly evolved into a significant private debt product. We find that sustainability-linked lending has been available mostly to borrowers...
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- October 2022 (Revised January 2023)
- Case
Century Bank: Closing Time?
By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Bill Kwon
Barry Sloane, second-generation Chairman, President, and CEO of his family’s bank, Century Bank, weighed whether to sell to Eastern Bank. As a small regional bank, Century faced a number of challenging trends, such as digitization and market share decline in the coming...
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Keywords:
Family Office;
Business Exit;
Banking;
Family;
Massachusetts;
Boston;
United States;
Acquisition;
Business Exit or Shutdown;
Family Business;
Family and Family Relationships;
Interpersonal Communication;
Decision Making;
Finance;
Banks and Banking;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Emotions;
Banking Industry;
Boston;
Massachusetts;
United States
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Retail Habitat
By: Toomas Laarits and Marco Sammon
Retail investors trade hard-to-value stocks. Controlling for size, stocks with a high share of retail-initiated trades are composed of more intangible capital, have longer duration cash-flows and a higher likelihood of being mispriced. Consistent with retail-heavy...
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Keywords:
Retail;
Retail Trade;
Intangible Capital;
Mispricing;
Investment;
Valuation;
Business Earnings
- October 2022
- Case
Spaceport America, Public Sector Risk-taking, and Political Accountability (A)
By: Matthew Weinzierl, Dava Newman, Rebecca Browder and Angela Acocella
Sitting quietly in the heart of the New Mexico desert in the summer of 2014, Spaceport America (SA) housed little of the activity its supporters anticipated when opening its hangar doors in 2011. Despite $1 million in annual rent from Virgin Galactic, British...
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