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- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor I. Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to...
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Keywords:
Performance Evaluation;
Research and Development;
Analytics and Data Science;
Consumer Behavior
Ham, Dae Woong, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-070, May 2023.
- April 2023
- Article
The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences
By: Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, David B. Huffman and Uwe Sunde
Incentivized choice experiments are a key approach to measuring preferences in economics but are also costly. Survey measures are a low-cost alternative but can suffer from additional forms of measurement error due to their hypothetical nature. This paper seeks to...
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Keywords:
Survey Validation;
Experiment;
Preference Measurement;
Surveys;
Economics;
Behavior;
Measurement and Metrics
Falk, Armin, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, David B. Huffman, and Uwe Sunde. "The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences." Management Science 69, no. 4 (April 2023): 1935–1950.
- March 2023
- Case
Roche: ESG and Access to Healthcare
By: George Serafeim, Susanna Gallani and Benjamin Maletta
In May 2022, Roche Group, one of the largest healthcare companies in the world, hosted its first ESG investor event focused exclusively on its efforts to impact access to healthcare. While Roche had recently set an ambitious goal to double the number of patients that...
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Keywords:
ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance;
Sustainable Finance;
Growth Strategy And Execution;
Sustainability Targets;
Impact Evaluation;
Healthcare Access;
Healthcare Innovation;
Healthcare Systems;
Healthcare Operations;
Finance;
Strategy;
Health Testing and Trials;
Health Care and Treatment;
Growth Management;
Measurement and Metrics;
Innovation Strategy;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Health Industry;
Pharmaceutical Industry;
Switzerland;
North America;
Europe;
Asia;
Latin America;
Africa
Serafeim, George, Susanna Gallani, and Benjamin Maletta. "Roche: ESG and Access to Healthcare." Harvard Business School Case 123-075, March 2023.
- January 2023
- Case
Adams + Beasley Associates
By: Dennis Campbell and Iuliana Mogosanu
This case illustrates how a strong culture, founder-led SME designed and used a unique performance metric — the job security index — to manage through periods of economic uncertainty. The case centers specifically on how the job security index was used in an...
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Keywords:
Financial Crisis;
Measurement and Metrics;
Employee Ownership;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Small Business;
Leadership;
Organizational Culture
Campbell, Dennis, and Iuliana Mogosanu. "Adams + Beasley Associates." Harvard Business School Case 123-051, January 2023.
- January 2023
- Case
Year Up: Measuring and Scaling Impact
Year Up, a non-profit that provides training and practical work experience to low-income young people, has for years prioritized impact measurement. By 2022, it had built a robust body of evidence demonstrating that its program yields higher earnings for participants....
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Keywords:
Demographics;
Education;
Jobs and Positions;
Measurement and Metrics;
Performance;
Research;
Social Enterprise;
Growth Management;
Education Industry;
United States;
Massachusetts;
Boston
Rigol, Natalia, Benjamin N. Roth, Brian Trelstad, and Sarah Mehta. "Year Up: Measuring and Scaling Impact." Harvard Business School Case 823-004, January 2023.
- December 2022
- Technical Note
Risks and Opportunities from the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: A Business Analysis Framework
By: George Serafeim
The transition to a low carbon economy introduces many risks and opportunities for businesses. Risks emerge from regulatory actions, such as carbon taxes and cap and trade systems, technological innovation that develop alternatives for customers making existing...
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Keywords:
Risk Assessment;
Opportunities;
Environmental Sustainability;
Carbon Footprint;
Risk Management;
Competitive Dynamics;
Business Analysis;
Climate Change;
Accounting;
Finance;
Valuation;
Business and Shareholder Relations;
Technological Innovation;
Transition;
Product Positioning;
Renewable Energy;
Analysis
Serafeim, George. "Risks and Opportunities from the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: A Business Analysis Framework." Harvard Business School Technical Note 123-014, December 2022.
- December 2022
- Article
Does Industry Employment of Active Regulators Weaken Oversight?
By: Jonas Heese
I study whether industry employment of active regulators weakens oversight. To examine this question, I exploit that the Financial Reporting Enforcement Panel (FREP), the German capital-market regulator responsible for enforcing public firms’ compliance with accounting...
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Keywords:
Conflict-of-interest Policies;
Directorships;
Enforcement Actions;
Industry Employment;
Self-regulatory Organizations;
Governance Compliance;
Governing and Advisory Boards;
Policy;
Conflict of Interests
Heese, Jonas. "Does Industry Employment of Active Regulators Weaken Oversight?" Management Science 68, no. 12 (December 2022): 9198–9218.
- 2022
- Article
Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns
By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
Using measures of physical risk from climate change, we develop a methodology to allocate currency pairs according to a country’s vulnerability and construct portfolios with decreasing vulnerability to physical risk. We show that non-G10 currencies are more vulnerable...
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Keywords:
Climate Finance;
Vulnerabilities;
Currencies;
Foreign Exchange;
Climate Change;
Currency;
Natural Disasters
Cheema-Fox, Alex, George Serafeim, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns." Financial Analysts Journal 78, no. 4 (2022): 37–58.
- October 2022
- Case
Sustainable Finance at Itau BBA
By: George Serafeim, Maria Loumioti and Benjamin Maletta
As of August 2022, the Itau BBA had structured dozens of sustainability linked bonds, which made future interest payments a function of the borrower meeting a target for a sustainability metric, and had solidified its reputation as a pioneer of sustainable finance in...
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Keywords:
Sustainable Finance;
Corporate Social Responsibility;
Environmental Sustainability;
Growth Strategy;
Debt Contracting;
Performance Metrics;
Risk Assessment;
ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance;
Financial Instruments;
Risk Management;
Debt Securities;
Measurement and Metrics;
Banking Industry;
Pulp and Paper Industry;
Latin America
Serafeim, George, Maria Loumioti, and Benjamin Maletta. "Sustainable Finance at Itau BBA." Harvard Business School Case 123-036, October 2022.
- September 2022
- Article
Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews
By: Dennis W. Campbell and Ruidi Shang
This paper examines whether information extracted via text-based statistical methods applied to employee reviews left on the website Glassdoor.com can be used to develop indicators of corporate misconduct risk. We argue that inside information on the incidence of...
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Keywords:
Management Accounting;
Management Control;
Corporate Culture;
Corporate Misconduct;
Risk Measurement;
Organizational Culture;
Crime and Corruption;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Measurement and Metrics
Campbell, Dennis W., and Ruidi Shang. "Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 7034–7053.
- July 2022
- Article
The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao and Edison Yu
Using new employer-employee matched data, this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty, as measured by idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers. An increase in firm-level...
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Keywords:
Employment Risk;
Consumption;
Employment;
Risk and Uncertainty;
System Shocks;
Insurance;
Household;
Spending
Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao, and Edison Yu. "The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households." Journal of Financial Economics 145, no. 1 (July 2022): 85–104.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies
By: Ishita Sen, Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva and Sangmin Oh
Homeowners’ insurance provides households financial protection from climate losses. To improve access and affordability, state regulators impose price controls on insurance companies. Using novel data, we construct a new measure of rate setting frictions for individual...
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Keywords:
Climate Risk;
Homeowners' Insurance;
Price Controls;
Financial Regulation;
Cross-subsidization;
Climate Change;
Household;
Insurance;
Price;
Governance Controls;
Financial Institutions;
United States
Sen, Ishita, Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva, and Sangmin Oh. "Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 3762235, June 2022. (Revised December 2022.)
- March 2022 (Revised January 2023)
- Case
Innovation at Moog Inc.
This case focuses on the challenges of incentivizing innovation within Moog, an engineering company based in New York state that designs and builds guidance systems for space, air, and land-based travel. The case enables students to grapple with the challenges of using...
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Keywords:
Innovation;
Innovation Lab;
Innovation Management;
Motivation;
Incentives;
Culture;
Compensation;
Compensation And Benefits;
Scalability;
Business Growth and Maturation;
Collaborative Innovation and Invention;
Independent Innovation and Invention;
Innovation and Management;
Innovation Leadership;
Innovation Strategy;
Organizational Culture;
Performance Consistency;
Performance Effectiveness;
Performance Efficiency;
Performance Productivity;
Performance Evaluation;
Creativity;
Motivation and Incentives;
Aerospace Industry;
Transportation Industry;
United States
Hall, Brian J., Ashley V. Whillans, Davis Heniford, Dominika Randle, and Caroline Witten. "Innovation at Moog Inc." Harvard Business School Case 922-040, March 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
- Article
Policies to Influence Perceptions about COVID-19 Risk: The Case of Maps
By: Claudia Engel, Jonathan Rodden and Marco Tabellini
Choropleth disease maps have become an important tool for informing the public about the risks posed by COVID-19. In a survey conducted in the U.S. state of Georgia in June 2020, we randomly assigned respondents to view either of two maps. The first one reported...
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Engel, Claudia, Jonathan Rodden, and Marco Tabellini. "Policies to Influence Perceptions about COVID-19 Risk: The Case of Maps." Science Advances 8, no. 11 (March 18, 2022).
- 2022
- Chapter
Measuring Compliance Risk and the Emergence of Analytics
By: Eugene F. Soltes
Corporate compliance manages a diverse set of regulatory and reputational concerns ranging from fraud to privacy to discrimination. However, effectively managing such risks has often been hampered by a lack of adequate information about when, where, and why misconduct...
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Keywords:
Compliance;
Risk;
Analytics;
Governance Compliance;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Risk Management;
Analytics and Data Science
Soltes, Eugene F. "Measuring Compliance Risk and the Emergence of Analytics." Chap. 8 in Measuring Compliance: Assessing Corporate Crime and Misconduct Prevention, edited by Melissa Rorie and Benjamin van Rooij, 137–152. Cambridge University Press, 2022.
- 2022
- Article
Missing Novelty in Drug Development
By: Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to...
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Keywords:
Drug Development;
Risk Aversion;
Research and Development;
Innovation and Invention;
Investment;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Krieger, Joshua, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Missing Novelty in Drug Development." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 2 (February 2022): 636–679.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Passive Ownership and Price Informativeness
By: Marco Sammon
I propose three new empirical measures of price informativeness motivated by a theoretical model. I find average price informativeness declined over the past 30 years and passive ownership is negatively correlated with price informativeness. To establish causality, I...
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Keywords:
Passive Ownership;
ETFs;
Market Efficiency;
Ownership;
Price;
Theory;
Measurement and Metrics
Sammon, Marco. "Passive Ownership and Price Informativeness." Working Paper, September 2022.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and...
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McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, January 2022.
- Article
Pattern Detection in the Activation Space for Identifying Synthesized Content
By: Celia Cintas, Skyler Speakman, Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Victor Akinwande, Edward McFowland III and Komminist Weldemariam
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have recently achieved unprecedented success in photo-realistic image synthesis from low-dimensional random noise. The ability to synthesize high-quality content at a large scale brings potential risks as the generated samples may...
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Cintas, Celia, Skyler Speakman, Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Victor Akinwande, Edward McFowland III, and Komminist Weldemariam. "Pattern Detection in the Activation Space for Identifying Synthesized Content." Pattern Recognition Letters 153 (January 2022): 207–213.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power
By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
Claims about the market power of bank deposits in the banking literature are numerous and far reaching. Recently, a causal narrative has emerged in the banking literature: market power in bank deposits, measured as imperfect pass-through of short-term market rates on...
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Keywords:
Bank Deposits;
Market Power;
Net Interest Margin (NIM);
Banks and Banking;
Interest Rates;
Risk and Uncertainty
Begenau, Juliane, and Erik Stafford. "Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-039, November 2021.