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Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (32)

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    • All HBS Web  (102)
      • Faculty Publications  (32)

      Risk AversionRemove Risk Aversion →

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      • August 2023
      • Article

      Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?

      By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée
      This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Innovation; Household Finance; Structured Products; Stock Market Participation; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Household; Personal Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Market Participation
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      Calvet, Laurent, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini, and Boris Vallée. "Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?" Journal of Finance 78, no. 4 (August 2023): 1917–1966.
      • November 2022
      • Article

      Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains

      By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton
      Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money,... View Details
      Keywords: Opportunities; Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Success; Perception
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      Prinsloo, Emily, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John, and Michael I. Norton. "Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains." Psychological Science 33, no. 11 (November 2022): 1857–1866.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Missing Novelty in Drug Development

      By: Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
      We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to... View Details
      Keywords: Drug Development; Risk Aversion; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention; Investment; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Krieger, Joshua, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Missing Novelty in Drug Development." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 2 (February 2022): 636–679.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations

      By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
      We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and... View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Stocks
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      McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, January 2022.
      • 2021
      • Article

      Fair Influence Maximization: A Welfare Optimization Approach

      By: Aida Rahmattalabi, Shahin Jabbari, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Phebe Vayanos, Max Izenberg, Ryan Brown, Eric Rice and Milind Tambe
      Several behavioral, social, and public health interventions, such as suicide/HIV prevention or community preparedness against natural disasters, leverage social network information to maximize outreach. Algorithmic influence maximization techniques have been proposed... View Details
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      Rahmattalabi, Aida, Shahin Jabbari, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Phebe Vayanos, Max Izenberg, Ryan Brown, Eric Rice, and Milind Tambe. "Fair Influence Maximization: A Welfare Optimization Approach." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 35th (2021).
      • February 2020
      • Article

      Being 'Good' or 'Good Enough': Prosocial Risk and the Structure of Moral Self-regard

      By: Julian Zlatev, Daniella M. Kupor, Kristin Laurin and Dale T. Miller
      The motivation to feel moral powerfully guides people’s prosocial behavior. We propose that people’s efforts to preserve their moral self-regard conform to a moral threshold model. This model predicts that people are primarily concerned with whether their... View Details
      Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Perception
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      Zlatev, Julian, Daniella M. Kupor, Kristin Laurin, and Dale T. Miller. "Being 'Good' or 'Good Enough': Prosocial Risk and the Structure of Moral Self-regard." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 118, no. 2 (February 2020): 242–253.
      • 2010
      • Article

      Fretting About Modest Risks Is a Mistake

      By: Matthew Rabin and Max Bazerman
      Managers often engage in risk-averse behavior, and economists, decision analysts, and managers treat risk aversion as a preference. In many cases, acting in a risk-averse manner is a mistake, but managers can correct this mistake with greater reflection. This article... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Biases; Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Making
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      Rabin, Matthew, and Max Bazerman. "Fretting About Modest Risks Is a Mistake." California Management Review 61, no. 3 (May 2019): 34–48.
      • Article

      Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty

      By: David P. Daniels and Julian Zlatev
      Biases influence important decisions, but little is known about whether and how individuals try to exploit others’ biases in strategic interactions. Choice architects—that is, people who present choices to others—must often decide between presenting choice sets with... View Details
      Keywords: Nudges; Biases; Strategic Decision Making; Social Influence; Choice Architects; Choice Architecture; Reflection Effect; Certainty Effect; Loss Aversion; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Power and Influence
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      Daniels, David P., and Julian Zlatev. "Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 151 (March 2019): 132–149.
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Detecting Anomalies: The Relevance and Power of Standard Asset Pricing Tests

      By: Malcolm Baker, Patrick Luo and Ryan Taliaferro
      The two standard approaches for identifying capital market anomalies are cross-sectional coefficient tests, in the spirit of Fama and MacBeth (1973), and time-series intercept tests, in the spirit of Jensen (1968). A new signal can pass the first test, which we label a... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Management; Anomalies; Portfolio Construction; Transaction Costs; Investment; Management; Asset Pricing; Market Transactions; Cost
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      Baker, Malcolm, Patrick Luo, and Ryan Taliaferro. "Detecting Anomalies: The Relevance and Power of Standard Asset Pricing Tests." Working Paper, July 2018.
      • April 2017
      • Teaching Note

      Sesame Workshop: Bringing Big Bird Back to Health (Abridged)

      By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Ryan Raffaelli, Ai-Ling Jamila Malone and Jonathan Cohen
      Sesame Workshop was in the middle of a turnaround in 2016. CEO Jeff Dunn had reorganized and shifted the iconic institution to respond to digital disruption and a consensus culture. This Teaching Note helps instructors teach the abridged and full-length versions of... View Details
      Keywords: Turnaround; NGO; Non-profit; Organization Alignment; Managing Change; Philanthropy; Media; Television; Reorganization; Talent; Innovation; Risk Aversion; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Change Management; Restructuring; Identity; Transformation; Education Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry
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      Kanter, Rosabeth Moss, Ryan Raffaelli, Ai-Ling Jamila Malone, and Jonathan Cohen. "Sesame Workshop: Bringing Big Bird Back to Health (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 317-118, April 2017.
      • Article

      Matching Firms, Managers, and Incentives

      By: Oriana Bandiera, Luigi Guiso, Andrea Prat and Raffaella Sadun
      We combine unique administrative and survey data to study the match between firms and managers. The data include manager characteristics, firm characteristics, detailed measures of managerial practices, and outcomes for the firm and the manager. A parsimonious model of... View Details
      Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Talent and Talent Management; Organizations; Management Teams
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      Bandiera, Oriana, Luigi Guiso, Andrea Prat, and Raffaella Sadun. "Matching Firms, Managers, and Incentives." Journal of Labor Economics 33, no. 3 (July 2015): 623–681.
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions

      By: Robert C. Merton and Robert T. Thakor
      Financial institutions have both investors and customers. Investors, such as those who invest in stocks and bonds or private/public-sector guarantors of institutions, expect an appropriate risk-adjusted return in exchange for the financing and risk-bearing that they... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Institutions
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      Merton, Robert C., and Robert T. Thakor. "Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 21258, June 2015.
      • Article

      Seeking the Roots of Entrepreneurship: Insights from Behavioral Economics

      By: Thomas Astebro, Holger Herz, Ramana Nanda and Roberto A. Weber
      There is a growing body of evidence that many entrepreneurs seem to enter and persist in entrepreneurship despite earning low risk-adjusted returns. This has lead to attempts to provide explanations—using both standard economic theory and behavioral economics—for why... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Personal Characteristics; Attitudes; Behavior
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      Astebro, Thomas, Holger Herz, Ramana Nanda, and Roberto A. Weber. "Seeking the Roots of Entrepreneurship: Insights from Behavioral Economics." Journal of Economic Perspectives 28, no. 3 (Summer 2014): 49–70.
      • October 2012
      • Case

      Hill Country Snack Foods Co.

      By: W. Carl Kester and Craig Stephenson
      Hill Country Snack Foods, located in Austin, Texas, manufactures, markets, and distributes snack foods and frozen treats. The CEO is passionate about maximizing shareholder value and believes in keeping tight control over costs and operating the business as efficiently... View Details
      Keywords: United States; Financial Strategy; Debt Management; Retail Trade; Risk Management; Food; Capital Structure; Corporate Finance; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Texas
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      Kester, W. Carl, and Craig Stephenson. "Hill Country Snack Foods Co." Harvard Business School Brief Case 913-517, October 2012.
      • September–October 2012
      • Article

      One-Switch Conditions for Multiattribute Utility Functions

      By: Ali E. Abbas and David E. Bell
      We introduce a variety of new independence conditions for multiattribute utility functions that permit preference dependencies among the attributes of a decision problem. The hierarchy of new conditions varies in the degree to which it specifies the functional form,... View Details
      Keywords: One-switch; Utility Independence; Risk Aversion; Multiattribute Utility; Decision Making
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      Abbas, Ali E., and David E. Bell. "One-Switch Conditions for Multiattribute Utility Functions." Operations Research 60, no. 5 (September–October 2012): 1199–1212.
      • Article

      How Institutional Investors Frame Their Losses: Evidence on Dynamic Loss Aversion from Currency Portfolios

      By: Kenneth A. Froot, John Arabadjis, Sonya Cates and Stephen Lawrence
      Currency investors exhibit a tendency to cut risk by pairing both longs and shorts following losses and a weaker tendency to add risk following gains. By differentiating between position level, portfolio level, and aggregate cross-portfolio losses in currency... View Details
      Keywords: Loss Aversion; Decision Choices and Conditions; Currency; Investment; Risk Management; Behavioral Finance
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      Froot, Kenneth A., John Arabadjis, Sonya Cates, and Stephen Lawrence. "How Institutional Investors Frame Their Losses: Evidence on Dynamic Loss Aversion from Currency Portfolios." Journal of Portfolio Management 38, no. 1 (Fall 2011): 60–68.
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      'Last-place Aversion': Evidence and Redistributive Implications

      By: Ilyana Kuziemko, Ryan W. Buell, Taly Reich and Michael I. Norton
      Why do low-income individuals often oppose redistribution? We hypothesize that an aversion to being in "last place" undercuts support for redistribution, with low-income individuals punishing those slightly below themselves to keep someone "beneath" them. In laboratory... View Details
      Keywords: Wages; Surveys; Wealth and Poverty; Behavior; Income; Research; Rank and Position; Attitudes; Personal Characteristics; Economics
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      Kuziemko, Ilyana, Ryan W. Buell, Taly Reich, and Michael I. Norton. "'Last-place Aversion': Evidence and Redistributive Implications." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 17234, August 2011.
      • Article

      Institutional Portfolio Flows and International Investments

      By: K. A. Froot and T. Ramadorai
      Keywords: Loss Aversion; International Investment; Portfolio Investment; Asset Allocation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Currency; Investment; Risk Management; Behavioral Finance; Asset Pricing
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      Froot, K. A., and T. Ramadorai. "Institutional Portfolio Flows and International Investments." Review of Financial Studies 21, no. 2 (March 2008): 937–971. (Formerly The Information Content of International Portfolio Flows, revised from NBER Working Paper No. 8472, September 2001, Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 03-006, 2002, revised December 2005.)
      • 2003
      • Working Paper

      The Risk Tolerance of International Investors

      By: Kenneth A. Froot and Paul G. J. O'Connell
      Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance; Asset Pricing; Investment
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      Froot, Kenneth A., and Paul G. J. O'Connell. "The Risk Tolerance of International Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 04-034, January 2004. (Also NBER Working Paper No. 10157, December 2003.)
      • 2002
      • Working Paper

      Risk Aversion and Apparently Persuasive Advertising

      By: Bharat Anand and Ron Shachar
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      Anand, Bharat, and Ron Shachar. "Risk Aversion and Apparently Persuasive Advertising." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 02-099, June 2002.
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