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HBS Course Catalog Managing Risk and Uncertainty Course Number 1375 Professor Eugene Soltes Spring; Q4; 1.5 credits Weekly 2 hour sessions Paper...
HBS Course Catalog Managing Risk and Uncertainty Course Number 1375 Professor Eugene Soltes Spring; Q4; 1.5 credits Weekly 2 hour sessions Paper...
- March 2021
- Background Note
The Pandemic's Impact on the U.S. Food System
By: Jose B. Alvarez and Natalie Kindred
This note is intended not as a comprehensive account but as a starting point for discussion about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the U.S. food system. Written in late 2020, the note describes, in part through the voices of industry leaders, how the pandemic...
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Keywords:
Agribusiness;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Risk Management;
Leadership;
Change Management;
Safety;
Health;
Health Pandemics;
Disruption;
Adaptation;
Supply Chain;
Supply Chain Management;
Retail Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry;
Transportation Industry;
United States
- March 2021
- Case
Nayana Mawilmada: Transforming Urban Development in Sri Lanka
By: Joshua D. Margolis and Mahima Rao-Kachroo
In February 2018, Nayana Mawilmada (Nayana), investment head for the Sri Lankan government’s ambitious $40 billion Megapolis project, must weigh an attractive job offer to move from the public sector to the private sector. A massive government project aimed at...
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Keywords:
Change Management;
Transformation;
Decision Making;
Public Sector;
Experience and Expertise;
Strategic Planning;
Work-Life Balance;
Transportation;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Power and Influence;
Personal Development and Career;
Real Estate Industry;
Rail Industry;
Transportation Industry;
South Asia;
Sri Lanka;
Boston;
Virginia;
United States
- February 2021
- Technical Note
Probability Distributions
By: Michael Parzen and Paul J. Hamilton
This technical note introduces students to the concept of random variables, and from there the normal and binomial distributions. After a brief introduction to random variables, the note describes the standard properties of the normal distribution: a single peak, and a...
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- January 2021
- Case
Hester Pharmaceuticals (A): A Pricing Dilemma
By: Dante Roscini and John Masko
In August 2019, the leadership of Hester Pharmaceuticals (Hester) had a problem. Italy promised to be a key market for their new breakthrough oncology drug Akrozumab, but for almost two years, its single-payer healthcare system had been unable to agree with Hester on a...
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Keywords:
Macroeconomics;
Trade;
Price;
Global Range;
Global Strategy;
Globalized Markets and Industries;
Health Care and Treatment;
Patents;
Monopoly;
Negotiation;
Business and Government Relations;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Human Needs;
Business Strategy;
Commercialization;
Pharmaceutical Industry;
Italy
- 2021
- Working Paper
Auditor Independence and Outsourcing: Aligning Incentives to Mitigate Shilling and Shirking
By: Ashley Palmarozzo, Jodi L. Short and Michael W. Toffel
Multinational corporations (MNCs) hire auditors to assess their business partners’ compliance with quality, working conditions, and environmental standards. Independent third-party auditors are widely assumed to outperform second-party auditors employed and thus...
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- January 2021
- Case
ByteDance: TikTok and the Trials of Going Viral
By: William C. Kirby and John P. McHugh
Keywords:
China;
Technology;
Startup;
Start-up;
International Strategy;
Global Strategy And Leadership;
Innovation;
Political Risk;
Regulations;
Trump;
Foreign Policy;
Foreign Investment;
Social Media;
Chinese Internet Market;
Global Strategy;
Crisis Management;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Entrepreneurship;
Technology Industry;
China;
United States
- January 2021
- Case
The FIRE Savings Calculator
By: Michael Parzen and Paul J. Hamilton
This case follows Carol Muñoz, a member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) lifestyle movement. At the age of 45, Carol is considering retiring and living off the $1 million she has accumulated. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Carol forecasts the...
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- January 2021
- Case
'GEnron?' Markopolos versus General Electric (A)
By: Jonas Heese and David Lane
In August 2019, Harry Markopolos—the forensic accountant known for uncovering Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme—alleged that General Electric had committed accounting fraud totaling $38 billion, coining the term “GEnron” for perceived similarities with the 2001 accounting...
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- January 2021
- Teaching Note
Shellye Archambeau: Becoming a CEO
By: Tsedal Neeley
Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 420-071 and 420-073.
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- January 2021
- Supplement
What Went Wrong with Boeing’s 737 Max? (B)
By: William W. George and Amram Migdal
Following the March 10, 2019, crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight 302, en route to Nairobi, Kenya and the October 29, 2018, downing of Lion Air flight 610 as it took off from Jakarta, Indonesia, Boeing’s 737 Max jet, the model flown in both instances, was grounded by...
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Keywords:
Ethics;
Values and Beliefs;
Governance;
Corporate Accountability;
Governance Controls;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Leadership;
Management;
Business or Company Management;
Crisis Management;
Risk Management;
Organizations;
Organizational Culture;
Problems and Challenges;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Safety;
Failure;
Transportation;
Air Transportation;
Aerospace Industry;
Air Transportation Industry;
North America;
United States
- December 2020 (Revised February 2021)
- Case
Riverstone
By: David E. Bell and Natalie Kindred
Keywords:
Strategy;
Globalization;
Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues;
Animal-Based Agribusiness;
Consumer Behavior;
Demand and Consumers;
Disruption;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Risk Management;
Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Consulting Industry;
United States;
China
- 2020
- Working Paper
The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao and Edison Yu
Using new employer-employee matched data, this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty, as measured by idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers. An increase in firm-level...
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Keywords:
Employment Risk;
Consumption;
Employment;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Insurance;
Household;
Spending
- August 2020
- Article
Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,...
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- August 2020
- Article
Leverage and the Beta Anomaly
By: Malcolm Baker, Mathias F. Hoeyer and Jeffrey Wurgler
The well-known weak empirical relationship between beta risk and the cost of equity—the beta anomaly—generates a simple tradeoff theory: As firms lever up, the overall cost of capital falls as leverage increases equity beta, but as debt becomes riskier the marginal...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
In a Pandemic, People Must Remember: Friends Are Contagious
By: T. Schlager and A.V. Whillans
This article reveals a behavioral tendency that may contribute to the spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Across seven studies—including two representative samples of Americans and Canadians (N = 3,408)—we show that people consistently underestimate...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
The Unexpected Benefits and Underlying Motivations for Communicating COVID-19 Contagion Risks When Rejecting In-Person Social Invitations
By: T. Schlager, A. Wilson and A.V. Whillans
Across five studies (N=3,071), we explore the interpersonal consequences of COVID risk communication when rejecting social invitations. In Study 1, people underestimate the benefits and overestimate the costs of rejecting social invitations for risk-related reasons. In...
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- July 2020
- Case
Michael Solomonov: Jerusalem in a Bowl
By: Boris Groysberg, Evan M.S. Hecht and Katherine Connolly Baden
Before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, Michael Solomonov and Steven Cook had begun to wonder whether it might be time to rethink their opportunistic approach to the expansion of their small restaurant empire in Philadelphia, CooknSolo. The pandemic, however, caused an...
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Keywords:
Restaurant Industry;
Entrepreneur;
Covid-19;
Crisis;
Crisis Response Plans;
Entrepreneurship;
Food;
Health Pandemics;
Crisis Management;
Innovation and Invention;
Leadership;
Creativity;
Strategy;
Ownership;
Problems and Challenges;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Situation or Environment;
Food and Beverage Industry;
United States
- July 2020
- Article
Recovering the Logic of Double Effect for Business: Intentions, Proportionality, and Impermissible Harms
By: Rosemarie Monge and Nien-hê Hsieh
Business actors often act in ways that may harm other parties. While the law aims to restrict harmful behavior and to provide remedies, legal systems do not anticipate all contingencies and legal regulations are not always well enforced. This article argues that the...
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Keywords:
Double Effect;
Intention;
Exploitation;
Risk;
Practical Ethics;
Competition;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Ethics
- 2020
- Working Paper
Older People Are Less Pessimistic About the Health Risks of COVID-19
By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
A central question for understanding behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the individual and collective levels, is how people perceive the health and economic risks they face. We conducted a survey of over 1,500 Americans from May 6–13, 2020, to understand...
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- June 2020 (Revised October 2020)
- Case
What Went Wrong with Boeing's 737 Max?
By: William W. George and Amram Migdal
This case describes the development of the Boeing 737 Max airplane model and the events leading up to two tragic plane crashes, in which a total of 346 people died: the crash of Lion Air flight 610 on October 29, 2018, in Indonesia, and the crash of Ethiopian Airlines...
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Keywords:
Communication;
Communication Intention and Meaning;
Communication Strategy;
Forms of Communication;
Announcements;
Decision Making;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Judgments;
Ethics;
Moral Sensibility;
Values and Beliefs;
Globalization;
Global Strategy;
Governance;
Corporate Accountability;
Governance Controls;
Human Resources;
Resignation and Termination;
Leadership;
Leadership Style;
Management;
Business or Company Management;
Crisis Management;
Management Practices and Processes;
Management Skills;
Management Style;
Management Systems;
Risk Management;
Time Management;
Markets;
Demand and Consumers;
Market Platforms;
Supply and Industry;
Duopoly and Oligopoly;
Industry Structures;
Operations;
Product Development;
Organizations;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Organizational Culture;
Outcome or Result;
Failure;
Success;
Planning;
Strategic Planning;
Problems and Challenges;
Relationships;
Business and Community Relations;
Business and Government Relations;
Business and Stakeholder Relations;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Safety;
Strategy;
Transportation;
Air Transportation;
Aerospace Industry;
Air Transportation Industry;
Africa;
Ethiopia;
Asia;
Indonesia;
North and Central America;
United States;
Seattle;
Chicago