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      • February 2023
      • Article

      OTC Intermediaries

      By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
      We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter (OTC) market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market...  View Details
      Keywords: OTC Markets; Intermediaries; Dealers; Credit Default Swaps; Risk Sharing; Financial Markets; Networks; Price; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Eisfeldt, Andrea L., Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan, and Emil Siriwardane. "OTC Intermediaries." Review of Financial Studies 36, no. 2 (February 2023): 615–677.
      • January 2023
      • Case

      Velong: Rethinking 'Made in China'

      By: Krishna G. Palepu, Nancy Hua Dai and Billy Chan
      Velong is a supplier of kitchen equipment and backyard grills for major global brands and store brands of large western retailers. In light of the Covid-related disruptions to the global supply chains, and the evolving trade tensions between China and the Western...  View Details
      Keywords: Globalization; Supply Chain Management; Risk Management; Manufacturing Industry; China; India; Mexico; Turkey; Viet Nam
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      Palepu, Krishna G., Nancy Hua Dai, and Billy Chan. "Velong: Rethinking 'Made in China'." Harvard Business School Case 323-064, January 2023.
      • January 2023
      • Supplement

      Organizational Climate Transition Risk Model

      By: George Serafeim and Benjamin Maletta
      Keywords: Risk Assessment; Opportunities; Environmental Sustainability; Transition; Carbon Footprint; Business Analysis; Valuation; Climate Change
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      Serafeim, George, and Benjamin Maletta. "Organizational Climate Transition Risk Model." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 123-707, January 2023.
      • January 2023
      • Teaching Note

      The Opioid Settlement and Executive Pay at AmerisourceBergen

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and Li-Kuan Ni
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No 122-014. In 2020, AmerisourceBergen Corporation, a Fortune 50 company in the drug distribution industry, agreed to settle thousands of lawsuits filed nationwide against the company for its opioid distribution practices that critics alleged...  View Details
      Keywords: Opioids; Shareholder Activism; Investment Activism; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Governance Compliance; Governance Controls; Executive Compensation; Risk Management; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business and Shareholder Relations; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Distribution Industry; Health Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States; West Virginia; Tennessee; Ohio; Pennsylvania
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and Li-Kuan Ni. "The Opioid Settlement and Executive Pay at AmerisourceBergen." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 123-067, January 2023.
      • January 2023
      • Supplement

      The END Fund (B)

      By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Courtney Han
      Founded in 2012, the END fund focused on eliminating five Neglected Tropical Diseases that accounted for 80% of the tropical diseases affecting nearly 1.5 billion people worldwide. Its roughly $25 million/year annual budget was fully committed when it got news that the...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Disorders; Investment Funds; Global Range; Nonprofit Organizations; Resource Allocation; Decisions; Health Care and Treatment; Mission and Purpose
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      Rangan, V. Kasturi, and Courtney Han. "The END Fund (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 523-064, January 2023.
      • January 2023
      • Case

      The END Fund: To Eliminate Neglected Tropical Diseases

      By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Courtney Han
      Founded in 2012, the END fund focused on eliminating five Neglected Tropical Diseases that accounted for 80% of the tropical diseases affecting nearly 1.5 billion people worldwide. Its roughly $25 million/year annual budget was fully committed when it got news that the...  View Details
      Keywords: Nonprofit Organizations; Health Disorders; Health Care and Treatment; Resource Allocation; Global Range; Decisions; Investment Funds
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      Rangan, V. Kasturi, and Courtney Han. "The END Fund: To Eliminate Neglected Tropical Diseases." Harvard Business School Case 523-063, January 2023.
      • January 2023
      • Case

      Cleave Therapeutics: Taking a Risk on Oncology Drug Discovery

      By: Regina Herzlinger and Brian Walker
      How can a successful executive assess her next move as the CEO of a firm with a promising and yet uncertain new drug? Amy Burroughs’ mandate to find a therapeutic window for Cleave Therapeutics oncology drug was on track but faced an uncertain future. Overseeing the...  View Details
      Keywords: Product Development; Leadership; Health Testing and Trials; Research and Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Condition; Partners and Partnerships; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Herzlinger, Regina, and Brian Walker. "Cleave Therapeutics: Taking a Risk on Oncology Drug Discovery." Harvard Business School Case 323-045, January 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Public Perception and Autonomous Vehicle Liability

      By: Julian De Freitas, Xilin Zhou, Margherita Atzei, Shoshana Boardman and Luigi Di Lillo
      The deployment of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and the accompanying societal and economic benefits will greatly depend on how much liability AV firms will have to carry for accidents involving these vehicles, which in turn impacts their insurability and associated...  View Details
      Keywords: Autonomous Vehicles; Moral Judgment; Liabilities; Harm; Insurance; Moral Sensibility; Legal Liability; Risk and Uncertainty; Technological Innovation; Public Opinion
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      De Freitas, Julian, Xilin Zhou, Margherita Atzei, Shoshana Boardman, and Luigi Di Lillo. "Public Perception and Autonomous Vehicle Liability." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-036, January 2023. (Revised January 2023.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’

      By: Jacqueline N. Lane
      In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Research; Resource Allocation; Perception
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      Lane, Jacqueline N. "The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-037, January 2023.
      • December 2022
      • Technical Note

      Risks and Opportunities from the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: A Business Analysis Framework

      By: George Serafeim
      The transition to a low carbon economy introduces many risks and opportunities for businesses. Risks emerge from regulatory actions, such as carbon taxes and cap and trade systems, technological innovation that develop alternatives for customers making existing...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk Assessment; Opportunities; Environmental Sustainability; Carbon Footprint; Risk Management; Competitive Dynamics; Business Analysis; Climate Change; Accounting; Finance; Valuation; Business and Shareholder Relations; Technological Innovation; Transition; Product Positioning; Renewable Energy; Analysis
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      Serafeim, George. "Risks and Opportunities from the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: A Business Analysis Framework." Harvard Business School Technical Note 123-014, December 2022.
      • December 7, 2022
      • Article

      Why Decentralized Crypto Platforms Are Weathering the Crash

      By: Shai Bernstein and Scott Duke Kominers
      In the past year, crypto markets dropped from $2.9 trillion in value to around $800 billion. In the wake of the collapse, crypto lenders and exchanges have been accused of fraud and other wrongdoing. What went wrong? One factor is competition. In theory, competition...  View Details
      Keywords: Crypto Economy; Cryptocurrency; Financial Complexity; Financial Crisis; Decentralization; Decentralized Markets; Decentralized Autonomous Organizations; Finance; Market Design; Financial Services Industry
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      Bernstein, Shai, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Why Decentralized Crypto Platforms Are Weathering the Crash." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (December 7, 2022).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
      We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries' supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence...  View Details
      Keywords: Swap Spreads; Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates; Financial Crisis; Financial Markets
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      Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • December 2022
      • Article

      Does Industry Employment of Active Regulators Weaken Oversight?

      By: Jonas Heese
      I study whether industry employment of active regulators weakens oversight. To examine this question, I exploit that the Financial Reporting Enforcement Panel (FREP), the German capital-market regulator responsible for enforcing public firms’ compliance with accounting...  View Details
      Keywords: Conflict-of-interest Policies; Directorships; Enforcement Actions; Industry Employment; Self-regulatory Organizations; Governance Compliance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Policy; Conflict of Interests
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      Heese, Jonas. "Does Industry Employment of Active Regulators Weaken Oversight?" Management Science 68, no. 12 (December 2022): 9198–9218.
      • December 2022
      • Article

      Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics

      By: Cheng Gao and Rory McDonald
      In nascent industries—whose new technologies are often poorly understood by regulators—contending with regulatory uncertainty can be crucial to organizational survival and growth. Prior research on nonmarket strategy has largely focused on established firms in mature...  View Details
      Keywords: Technological Change; Innovation; Qualitative Methods; New Categories; Entrepreneurship; Technological Innovation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy
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      Gao, Cheng, and Rory McDonald. "Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics." Administrative Science Quarterly 67, no. 4 (December 2022): 915–967.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns

      By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
      Using measures of physical risk from climate change, we develop a methodology to allocate currency pairs according to a country’s vulnerability and construct portfolios with decreasing vulnerability to physical risk. We show that non-G10 currencies are more vulnerable...  View Details
      Keywords: Climate Finance; Vulnerabilities; Currencies; Foreign Exchange; Climate Change; Currency; Natural Disasters
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      Cheema-Fox, Alex, George Serafeim, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns." Financial Analysts Journal 78, no. 4 (2022): 37–58.
      • November 2022
      • Article

      Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains

      By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton
      Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money, reputation). In...  View Details
      Keywords: Opportunities; Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Success; Perception
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      Prinsloo, Emily, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John, and Michael I. Norton. "Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains." Psychological Science 33, no. 11 (November 2022): 1857–1866.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans

      By: Maria Loumioti and George Serafeim
      Sustainability-linked loans (i.e., syndicated loans for which pricing is linked to a sustainability performance indicator) have rapidly evolved into a significant private debt product. We find that sustainability-linked lending has been available mostly to borrowers...  View Details
      Keywords: Sustainability; Sustainability Management; Credit Products; Loan Contracts; Loans; Corporate Finance; Credit Risk; Environment; ESG; ESG Ratings; Climate Change; Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Risk and Uncertainty; Credit
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      Loumioti, Maria, and George Serafeim. "The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-027, November 2022.
      • October 2022 (Revised January 2023)
      • Case

      Century Bank: Closing Time?

      By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Bill Kwon
      Barry Sloane, second-generation Chairman, President, and CEO of his family’s bank, Century Bank, weighed whether to sell to Eastern Bank. As a small regional bank, Century faced a number of challenging trends, such as digitization and market share decline in the coming...  View Details
      Keywords: Family Office; Business Exit; Banking; Family; Massachusetts; Boston; United States; Acquisition; Business Exit or Shutdown; Family Business; Family and Family Relationships; Interpersonal Communication; Decision Making; Finance; Banks and Banking; Risk and Uncertainty; Emotions; Banking Industry; Boston; Massachusetts; United States
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      Cohen, Lauren, Grace Headinger, and Bill Kwon. "Century Bank: Closing Time?" Harvard Business School Case 223-040, October 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Retail Habitat

      By: Toomas Laarits and Marco Sammon
      Retail investors trade hard-to-value stocks. Controlling for size, stocks with a high share of retail-initiated trades are composed of more intangible capital, have longer duration cash-flows and a higher likelihood of being mispriced. Consistent with retail-heavy...  View Details
      Keywords: Retail; Retail Trade; Intangible Capital; Mispricing; Investment; Valuation; Business Earnings
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      Laarits, Toomas, and Marco Sammon. "The Retail Habitat." Working Paper, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Case

      Spaceport America, Public Sector Risk-taking, and Political Accountability (A)

      By: Matthew Weinzierl, Dava Newman, Rebecca Browder and Angela Acocella
      Sitting quietly in the heart of the New Mexico desert in the summer of 2014, Spaceport America (SA) housed little of the activity its supporters anticipated when opening its hangar doors in 2011. Despite $1 million in annual rent from Virgin Galactic, British...  View Details
      Keywords: Funding Sources; Risk and Uncertainty; Public Sector; Business and Government Relations; Factories, Labs, and Plants; Aerospace Industry; New Mexico
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      Weinzierl, Matthew, Dava Newman, Rebecca Browder, and Angela Acocella. "Spaceport America, Public Sector Risk-taking, and Political Accountability (A)." Harvard Business School Case 723-011, October 2022.
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