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      • Faculty Publications  (753)

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      • April 2023
      • Article

      The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation

      By: Ethan Rouen and Matthias Regier
      We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between...  View Details
      Keywords: Intangibles; Valuation; Human Capital; Investment Return
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      Rouen, Ethan, and Matthias Regier. "The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation." Art. 102384. Journal of Corporate Finance 79 (April 2023).
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Avoiding Idiosyncratic Volatility: Flow Sensitivity to Individual Stock Returns

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni, Shimon Kogan and Ran Xing
      Despite positive and significant earnings announcement premia, we find that institutional investors reduce their exposure to stocks before earnings announcements. A novel result on the sensitivity of flows to individual stock returns provides a potential explanation....  View Details
      Keywords: Institutional Investing; Stocks
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Francesco Franzoni, Shimon Kogan, and Ran Xing. "Avoiding Idiosyncratic Volatility: Flow Sensitivity to Individual Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper.
      • February 2023
      • Supplement

      “A Win for the Planet”? The Return of Lula

      By: Sophus A. Reinert
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      Reinert, Sophus A. "“A Win for the Planet”? The Return of Lula." Harvard Business School Supplement 723-045, February 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Summarizing the Mental Customer Journey

      By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, Pechthida Kim and Tomer Ullman
      How do consumers summarize and act on their experiences, as when deciding whether an interaction with a firm was satisfying and whether to buy from it? Previous work on the summary of continuous experiences has tended to focus on a handful of experience patterns and...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Experience; Customer Journey; Natural Language Processing; Summarization; Customer Satisfaction; Outcome or Result; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      De Freitas, Julian, Ahmet Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, Pechthida Kim, and Tomer Ullman. "Summarizing the Mental Customer Journey." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-038, January 2023.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
      We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries' supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence...  View Details
      Keywords: Swap Spreads; Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates; Financial Crisis; Financial Markets
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      Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Disappearing Index Effect

      By: Robin Greenwood and Marco Sammon
      The abnormal return associated with a stock being added to the S&P 500 has fallen from an average of 3.4% in the 1980s and 7.6% in the 1990s to 0.8% over the past decade. This has occurred despite a significant increase in the percentage of stock market assets linked...  View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Investment Return
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Marco Sammon. "The Disappearing Index Effect." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-025, December 2022.
      • November 2022
      • Case

      Goonj: Growing in the Face of a Pandemic

      By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Priyank Narayan
      Founded by the husband and wife team of Anshu and Meenakshi Gupta in 1999, Goonj had quickly emerged as one of the leading disaster relief and rural development organizations in India. Their main mode of development was through providing a clothing kit to the village...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Management; Family Business; Natural Disasters; Social Issues; Entrepreneurship; Operations; Business and Community Relations; Strategy; India
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      Rangan, V. Kasturi, and Priyank Narayan. "Goonj: Growing in the Face of a Pandemic." Harvard Business School Case 523-051, November 2022.
      • November 2022
      • Case

      Ajax Health: A New Model for Medical Technology Innovation

      By: Regina E. Herzlinger and Ben Creo
      This case teaches key success factors for both startup and established MedTech firms. It examines how to structure a firm to maximize innovation and financial returns with organizational structures that better align the incentives for the different skill sets...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Success; Innovation Strategy; Mergers and Acquisitions; Market Entry and Exit; Financial Strategy; Business Model; Partners and Partnerships; Entrepreneurship; Private Equity; Technology Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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      Herzlinger, Regina E., and Ben Creo. "Ajax Health: A New Model for Medical Technology Innovation." Harvard Business School Case 323-043, November 2022.
      • 2022
      • White Paper

      The Options Multiplier: Decoding the CareerWise Youth Apprentice Journey

      By: Joseph B. Fuller, Rachel Lipson, Farah Mallah, Girish Pendse and Rachel Snyder
      As more Americans question the appeal of costly higher education programs, earn-and-learn models, like apprenticeship, are attracting increasing attention from policymakers and employers alike. While apprenticeship is widespread in many parts of Europe,...  View Details
      Keywords: Apprenticeship; Higher Education; Training; Personal Development and Career; Cost vs Benefits; Success; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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      Fuller, Joseph B., Rachel Lipson, Farah Mallah, Girish Pendse, and Rachel Snyder. "The Options Multiplier: Decoding the CareerWise Youth Apprentice Journey." White Paper, Project on Workforce at Harvard, November 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns

      By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
      Using measures of physical risk from climate change, we develop a methodology to allocate currency pairs according to a country’s vulnerability and construct portfolios with decreasing vulnerability to physical risk. We show that non-G10 currencies are more vulnerable...  View Details
      Keywords: Climate Finance; Vulnerabilities; Currencies; Foreign Exchange; Climate Change; Currency; Natural Disasters
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      Cheema-Fox, Alex, George Serafeim, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns." Financial Analysts Journal 78, no. 4 (2022): 37–58.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      How Do Investors Value ESG?

      By: Malcolm Baker, Mark Egan and Suproteem K. Sarkar
      Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives have risen to near the top of the agenda for corporate executives and boards, driven in large part by their perceptions of shareholder interest. We quantify the value that shareholders place on ESG using a revealed...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Investment Portfolio; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business and Shareholder Relations; Environmental Sustainability; Governance; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Baker, Malcolm, Mark Egan, and Suproteem K. Sarkar. "How Do Investors Value ESG?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30708, December 2022. (Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-028, November 2022.)
      • October 2022
      • Case

      Founders First Capital Partners

      By: Brian Trelstad, Mel Martin and Amy Klopfenstein
      In June 2021, Kim T. Folsom, the founder and CEO of revenue-based financing firm Founders First Capital Partners (FFCP), must decide whether to issue another loan to OnShore Technology Group, an up-and-coming software validation company. FFCP provided revenue-based...  View Details
      Keywords: Finance; Financial Instruments; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Revenue; Capital; Financial Services Industry; North and Central America; United States
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      Trelstad, Brian, Mel Martin, and Amy Klopfenstein. "Founders First Capital Partners." Harvard Business School Case 323-013, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Case

      Star Magnolia Capital: Becoming Experts at Finding Experts

      By: Lauren Cohen, Hao Gao, River Ewing and Grace Headinger
      Shinya Deguchi, Founder and Managing Partner of Star Magnolia Capital, a Shanghai-based multi-family office (MFO), considered how to convince a new prospective family that the MFO’s endowment model approach would best suit their needs. In recent decades, there has been...  View Details
      Keywords: China; Asia; Family Office; Shanghai; Financial Industry; Asset Management; Financial Instruments; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Investment; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Human Capital; Family Business; Financial Services Industry; China; Shanghai
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      Cohen, Lauren, Hao Gao, River Ewing, and Grace Headinger. "Star Magnolia Capital: Becoming Experts at Finding Experts." Harvard Business School Case 223-038, October 2022.
      • October 2022 (Revised December 2022)
      • Case

      Aphro Beverages

      By: Frank V. Cespedes and Amram Migdal
      This case focuses on distribution, sales, and product decisions as Aphro Beverages reaches an inflection point in its growth trajectory. In 2020, Aphro Beverages, based in Accra, Ghana, successfully launched its brand and brought two new alcoholic spirits products to...  View Details
      Keywords: Agribusiness; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Business Ventures; Business Growth and Maturation; Entrepreneurship; Food; Geography; Geographic Scope; Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Growth Management; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Brands and Branding; Digital Marketing; Product Marketing; Product Launch; Product Positioning; Social Marketing; Operations; Distribution; Distribution Channels; Product; Product Design; Product Development; Supply Chain; Sales; Salesforce Management; Food and Beverage Industry; Africa; Ghana
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      Cespedes, Frank V., and Amram Migdal. "Aphro Beverages." Harvard Business School Case 823-044, October 2022. (Revised December 2022.)
      • Article

      Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

      By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang
      We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of...  View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment
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      Egan, Mark, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds." Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 5 (October 2022): 2559–2599.
      • September 2022
      • Background Note

      On CUE: The Quest for Optimal Customer Unit Economics

      By: Elie Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller
      Startups are often evaluated by how well they perform on unit economics, defined as the ratio of a customer’s lifetime value (LTV) to acquisition costs (CAC). A common target for unit economics, advocated by many VCs and analysts, is 3:1 (i.e., LTV/CAC=3). While there...  View Details
      Keywords: Unit Economics; Business Startups; Performance Evaluation; Customer Value and Value Chain; Customer Relationship Management; Analysis
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      Ofek, Elie, Barak Libai, and Eitan Muller. "On CUE: The Quest for Optimal Customer Unit Economics." Harvard Business School Background Note 523-050, September 2022.
      • September 16, 2022
      • Article

      A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties

      By: Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
      The authors analyzed data from multiple large-scale randomized experiments on LinkedIn’s People You May Know algorithm, which recommends new connections to LinkedIn members, to test the extent to which weak ties increased job mobility in the world’s largest...  View Details
      Keywords: Job Mobility; Social Networks; Social Ties; Networks; Personal Development and Career
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      Rajkumar, Karthik, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Sinan Aral. "A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties." Science 377, no. 6612 (September 16, 2022).
      • September 2022
      • Case

      ROI vs. ROI: The Grupo Baobá Family Office

      By: Lauren Cohen, Hao Gao, Jiawei Ye and Grace Headinger
      Fernando Scodro, a third-generation member of his family, mulled over the next step in integrating an ESG strategy into his family office’s investment portfolio. While his family office, Grupo Baobá, had made excellent progress in incorporating his family’s values into...  View Details
      Keywords: Impact Investing; ESG; Green Building; Family; Partnership; Latin America; Brazil; Buildings and Facilities; Green Buildings; Family Business; Family and Family Relationships; Financial Management; Partners and Partnerships; Financial Services Industry; Brazil; Latin America
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      Cohen, Lauren, Hao Gao, Jiawei Ye, and Grace Headinger. "ROI vs. ROI: The Grupo Baobá Family Office." Harvard Business School Case 223-018, September 2022.
      • September 2022
      • Article

      A Spanner in the Works: Category-Spanning Entrants and Audience Valuation of Incumbents

      By: Rory M. McDonald and Ryan T. Allen
      Previous work has examined how audiences evaluate category-spanning organizations, but little is known about how their entrance affects evaluations of other, proximate organizations. We posit that the emergence of category-spanning entrants signals the advent of an...  View Details
      Keywords: Emerging Industries; Industry Dynamics; Organization And Management Theory; Technology Strategy; Technology And Innovation Management; Entrepreneurship; Information Technology; Strategy; Management; Theory; Innovation and Management
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      McDonald, Rory M., and Ryan T. Allen. "A Spanner in the Works: Category-Spanning Entrants and Audience Valuation of Incumbents." Strategy Science 7, no. 6 (September 2022): 190–209.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Human Capital and the Managerial Revolution in the United States

      By: Tom Nicholas
      This paper estimates the returns to human capital accumulation during the first era of megafirms in the United States by linking employees at General Electric—a canonical enterprise associated with the “visible hand” of managerial hierarchies—to data from the 1940...  View Details
      Keywords: Returns To Education; Management Practices; Hierarchies; Human Capital; Management; Training; Higher Education; Government and Politics; United States
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      Nicholas, Tom. "Human Capital and the Managerial Revolution in the United States." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-015, September 2022.
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