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- Faculty Publications (110)
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All HBS Web
(584)
- Faculty Publications (110)
- Article
Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by...
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Keywords:
Financial Markets;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Valuation;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Volatility;
Price;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Behavioral Finance
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market." Journal of Economic Perspectives 21, no. 2 (Spring 2007): 129–151.
- February 2007 (Revised January 2008)
- Supplement
Multifactor Models (CW)
By: Malcolm P. Baker
- Article
The Effect of Dividends on Consumption
By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from...
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Keywords:
Investment;
Investment Return;
Economics;
Stocks;
Capital;
Business Earnings;
Investment Portfolio;
Investment Funds;
Cost;
Saving
Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1 (2007): 277–291.
- August 2006
- Article
Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by...
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Keywords:
Behavioral Finance;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Motivation and Incentives;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Volatility
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1645–1680.
- August 2006
- Article
Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance...
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Keywords:
Prejudice and Bias;
Fairness;
Managerial Roles;
Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques;
Equity;
Bonds;
Financial Markets;
Investment;
Capital Markets;
Borrowing and Debt;
Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?" Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1711–1730. (Section V of "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, contains additional analyses.)
- 2006
- Working Paper
The Effect of Dividends on Consumption
By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock...
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Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 12288, June 2006. (First Draft in 2005.)
- June 2005
- Article
Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional Investor Flows
By: K. A. Froot and T. Ramadorai
Keywords:
Currencies;
Exchange Rates;
Purchasing Power Parity;
Real Exchange Rate;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Behavioral Finance;
Investment Return;
Market Transactions;
Performance Expectations;
Personal Characteristics;
Asset Pricing;
Financial Services Industry
Froot, K. A., and T. Ramadorai. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional Investor Flows." Journal of Finance 60, no. 3 (June 2005): 1535–1566. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 9101, August 2002 and Harvard Business School Working Paper no. 04-036, December 2003.)
- 2005
- Working Paper
Aggregate Corporate Liquidity and Stock Returns
By: Robin Greenwood
Aggregate investment in cash and liquid assets as a share of total corporate investment is negatively related to subsequent U.S. stock market returns between 1947 and 2003. The share of cash in total investment is a more stable predictor of returns than scaled price...
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- 2005
- Working Paper
Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying...
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Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10449, April 2005. (First draft in 2003.)
- March 2005
- Article
Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage
By: Robin Greenwood
I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be...
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Keywords:
Limits To Arbitrage;
Event Studies;
Demand Curves;
Portfolio Choice;
Framework;
Demand and Consumers;
Change;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Debt Securities;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Stocks;
Assets;
Investment Portfolio;
System Shocks;
Price;
Japan
Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
- 2005
- Working Paper
Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements
By: Malcolm Baker, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter and Jeffrey Wurgler
We consider measures of stock-picking skill of mutual fund managers based on the earnings announcement returns of the stocks that they hold and trade. Relative to standard approaches, this approach focuses on an especially informative subset of the returns data,...
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Keywords:
Stocks;
Asset Management;
Business Earnings;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Competency and Skills
Baker, Malcolm, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10685, February 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
- 2005
- Working Paper
Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's...
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Keywords:
Managerial Roles;
Equity;
Market Timing;
Financial Instruments;
Investment Return;
Mathematical Methods
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, January 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
- September 2004
- Article
Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows
By: Kenneth A. Froot and J. Tjornhom Donohue
- June 2004
- Article
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity-such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover-predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational...
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Keywords:
Markets;
Financial Liquidity;
Price;
Trade;
Sales;
Equity;
Information;
Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques;
Accounting Industry
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." Journal of Financial Markets 7, no. 3 (June 2004): 271–299.
- November 2003
- Article
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term...
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Keywords:
Borrowing and Debt;
Bonds;
Investment Return;
Financial Markets;
Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 70, no. 2 (November 2003): 261–291.
- June 2003
- Case
Peabody Simpson at the Crossroads
By: Rajiv Lal, Nitin Nohria and Leslie Freeman
Three managing directors at Peabody Simpson had just returned from a firm-wide recruiting event at Columbia University, which they had covered together, as all were alumni. They were commiserating about having to submit revised forecasts to their division heads by the...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Capital Budgeting;
Recruitment;
Reports;
Organizational Design
Lal, Rajiv, Nitin Nohria, and Leslie Freeman. "Peabody Simpson at the Crossroads." Harvard Business School Case 503-112, June 2003.
- December 2002
- Article
The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows
By: K. A. Froot and J. Donohue
Keywords:
Asset Pricing;
Equity Investment;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Behavioral Finance;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Market Transactions;
Performance Expectations;
Financial Services Industry
Froot, K. A., and J. Donohue. "The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows." Emerging Markets Review 3, no. 4 (December 2002): 338–364. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 9241, HBS Working Paper no. 03-035, September 2002.)
- March 2002 (Revised November 2003)
- Case
Satellite Radio
By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Alastair Brown
In early 2002, XM and Sirius were fighting for control of the emerging U.S. market for satellite radio. Each company targeted consumers in automobiles, providing 100 channels of CD-quality audio for a monthly subscription fee of $10-$13. Wall Street analysts predicted...
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Keywords:
Growth and Development Strategy;
Price;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Problems and Challenges;
Network Effects;
Partners and Partnerships;
Information Technology;
Business Model;
Investment Return;
Auto Industry;
Media and Broadcasting Industry;
United States
Eisenmann, Thomas R., and Alastair Brown. "Satellite Radio." Harvard Business School Case 802-175, March 2002. (Revised November 2003.)
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational...
View Details
Keywords:
Price;
Financial Liquidity;
Trade;
Valuation;
Markets;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Equity;
Stock Shares;
Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." NBER Working Paper Series, 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term...
View Details
Keywords:
Borrowing and Debt;
Bonds;
Investment Return;
Financial Markets;
Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." 2002. (First draft in 2001.)