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- 2025
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
- June 2025
- Case
TfL Pension Fund and the 2022 Gilt Market Crisis
By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Vincent Dessain, Emer Moloney and Carlota Moniz
On September 27, 2022, Padmesh Shukla, CIO of the Transport for London (TfL) Pension Fund, was keeping a careful eye on the turmoil in the U.K. sovereign bond (or gilt) market. When the new government announced the largest tax cuts the U.K. had seen in half a century,... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Assets; Asset Management; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Markets; Equity; Public Equity; Private Equity; Financial Liquidity; Financial Instruments; Debt Securities; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Bonds; Stocks; Financial Strategy; Interest Rates; Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Crisis Management; Resource Allocation; Investment; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom; England; London; Europe
- 2025
- Working Paper
Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
An Empirical Examination of Business Climate Alliances: Effective and/or Harmful?
By: Matteo Gasparini and Peter Tufano
This research studies business alliances that seek to address climate change, offering empirical evidence to address claims advanced by alliance supporters and critics. We study eleven major alliances mostly focused on financial services firms and 424 major... View Details
Keywords: Antitrust; Climate Change; Financial Institutions; Competition; Network Effects; Alliances
- Working Paper
Index Rebalancing and Stock Market Composition: Do Indexes Time the Market?
By: Marco Sammon and John J. Shim
Value-weighted indexes must rebalance in response to stock market composition changes, e.g., issuance, buybacks, and IPOs. In doing so, existing index funds implicitly engage in market timing. Index funds’ long-short rebalancing portfolios have a -3.5% annual return... View Details
- May 2025 (Revised May 2025)
- Case
Humana Commits to Value-Based Care
By: V.G. Narayanan, Henry Eyring and David Lane
In late 2023, CEO Bruce Broussard reviewed health insurer Humana’s transformation into a value-based care ecosystem. Under its CenterWell brand, the several millions of members in Humana Medicare Advantage plans now had access to Humana-provided primary care, home... View Details
- May 2025
- Case
The Micro-Family Office: Aamir Rehman
By: Lauren Cohen and Sophia Pan
With a successful career and strong academic credentials, Aamir Rehman sought to design a life grounded in autonomy. For him, this meant serving on boards, continuing his professorship, and ensuring a secure and comfortable life for his family. While he didn’t possess... View Details
Keywords: Family Office; Organization Design; Family And Friends; Family; Balance; Stability; Trends And Opportunities; Wealth Management; Family Business; Investment; Financial Strategy; Personal Finance; Investment Portfolio; Private Equity; Organizational Design; Family and Family Relationships; Happiness; Satisfaction; Balance and Stability; Human Capital; Compensation and Benefits; Economy; Trends; Business Model; New Jersey; United States
- 2025
- Working Paper
Generative AI Use by Capital Market Information Intermediaries: Evidence from Seeking Alpha
By: Mark Bradshaw, Chenyang Ma, Benjamin Yost and Yuan Zou
We study the use of generative AI for firm-specific financial analysis on the Seeking Alpha platform. We find that, after the initial launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the share of AI-generated articles rose sharply to 13.4% of all articles, then declined in late... View Details
- April 2025
- Case
Japan Industrial Partners Powers the Leveraged Buyout of Toshiba
By: Brian K. Baik, Joseph Pacelli and James Barnett
The case explores Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) $14 billion takeover of Toshiba Corporation (Toshiba). JIP was a private equity firm that took over the troubled electronics corporation in late 2023. The deal, which had been labeled one of the largest leveraged... View Details
Keywords: International Accounting; Borrowing and Debt; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Ownership; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy; Valuation; Leveraged Buyouts; Restructuring; Capital Structure; Cost of Capital; Private Equity; Bids and Bidding; Accounting Industry; Electronics Industry; Energy Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Semiconductor Industry; Asia; Japan
- April 2025
- Article
Serving with a Smile on Airbnb: Analyzing the Economic Returns and Behavioral Underpinnings of the Host’s Smile
By: Shunyuan Zhang, Elizabeth Friedman, Kannan Srinivasan, Ravi Dhar and Xupin Zhang
Non-informational cues, such as facial expressions, can significantly influence judgments and interpersonal impressions. While past research has explored how smiling affects business outcomes in offline or in-store contexts, relatively less is known about how smiling... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
The Allocation of Socially Responsible Capital
By: Daniel Green and Benjamin N. Roth
Portfolio allocation decisions increasingly incorporate social values. We develop a tractable framework to study how competition between investors to own socially valuable assets affects social welfare. Relative to the most common social-investing strategies, we... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
With a Little Help from My Family: Informal Startup Financing
By: Brian K. Baik, Johan Ludvig S. Karlsen and Katja Kisseleva
Using Norwegian administrative data, we identify family equity investments in startups
and examine their effects on investor returns and firm behavior. Informal investors
earn lower returns than external individuals, and the firms they back are less
likely to secure... View Details
- 25 Mar 2025
- Other Presentation
Louis E. Caldera on the Panama Canal and DEI Under Trump's Administration
By: Louis Caldera and June Carolyn Erlick
Louis E. Caldera, a Senior Lecturer at Harvard Business School, chaired the Panama Canal Commission the year the Canal was returned to Panama, 1999. He was also the first (and only) Latino to serve as Secretary of the Army. He talks on issues ranging from President... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Private Equity and Workers: Modeling and Measuring Monopsony, Implicit Contracts, and Efficient Reallocation
By: Kyle Herkenhoff, Josh Lerner, Gordon M. Phillips, Francisca Rebelo and Benjamin Sampson
We measure the real effects of private equity buyouts on worker outcomes by building a new
database that links transactions to matched employer-employee data in the United States. To
guide our empirical analysis, we derive testable implications from three theories in... View Details
- March 2025
- Case
Taylor Guitars: Making Employee Ownership Work the Taylor Way
By: Dennis Campbell, Petros Kusmu and Stacy Straaberg
In 2013, guitar manufacturer Taylor Guitars’ co-founders Bob Taylor and Kurt Listug were considering several exit options including selling to a competitor or to a private equity firm. The co-founders decided, instead, to embark on a seven-year process to transfer 100%... View Details
Keywords: Business Exit or Shutdown; Communication Strategy; Announcements; Decisions; Music Entertainment; Values and Beliefs; Borrowing and Debt; Geographic Location; Global Range; Governance; Employee Stock Ownership Plan; Management Style; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure; Private Ownership; Business Strategy; Management Succession; Transition; Employee Ownership; Performance; Manufacturing Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States; California; San Diego; Mexico; Netherlands
- March 2025 (Revised May 2025)
- Case
Primetime Partners: Investing in Healthspan, Wealthspan, and Workspan
By: Rembrand Koning, Nicole Tempest Keller and Susan Wilner Golden
In the fall of 2024, Abby Miller Levy (HBS ’01), co-founder and managing partner of Primetime Partners, was preparing to raise a second fund. Founded in 2020 with veteran investor Alan Patricof, Primetime was a horizontal fund focused on early-stage companies serving... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Centralized Governance in Decentralized Organizations
By: Lin William Cong, Daniel Rabetti, Charles C.Y. Wang and Yu Yan
We systematically document governance centralization in decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and study its drivers and economic implications. Using multiple data sources and granular on-chain transactional data, we compare our findings to those in corporate... View Details
- March 2025
- Article
Boomerasking: Answering Your Own Questions
By: Alison Wood Brooks and Michael Yeomans
Humans spend much of their lives in conversation, where they tend to hold many simultaneous motives. We examine two fundamental desires: to be responsive to a partner and to disclose about oneself. We introduce one pervasive way people attempt to reconcile these... View Details
- February 2025
- Teaching Note
Influencer-Led Brand Building: Hairitage and the McKnights
By: William R. Kerr and James Palano
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 825-066. Mindy McKnight started in 2009 as an early influencer on social media whose videos of creative hairstyles for girls launched her family on an entrepreneurship journey. The McKnights transitioned from YouTube ad revenue to brand... View Details