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Publications

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

      By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov
      Predictive model development is understudied despite its importance to modern businesses. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms) as the primary driver of model quality, the value of tools...  View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science
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      Yue, Daniel, Paul Hamilton, and Iavor Bojinov. "Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-029, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Consumer Demand with Social Influences: Evidence from an E-Commerce Platform

      By: El Hadi Caoui, Chiara Farronato, John J. Horton and Robert Schultz
      For some kinds of goods, rarity itself is valued. "Fashionable'" goods are demanded in part because they are unique. In this paper, we explore the economics of rare goods using auctions of limited-edition shoes held by an e-commerce platform. We model endogenous entry...  View Details
      Keywords: Rare Goods; Scarcity; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Auctions
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      Caoui, El Hadi, Chiara Farronato, John J. Horton, and Robert Schultz. "Consumer Demand with Social Influences: Evidence from an E-Commerce Platform." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30351, August 2022.
      • Winter 2022
      • Article

      Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted

      By: Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher Stanton
      The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Demand Forecasting; Reopening; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Small Business
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      Balla-Elliott, Dylan, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton. "Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 41, no. 1 (Winter 2022): 278–317.
      • May 2022
      • Article

      Policy Stringency and Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Longitudinal Analysis of Data from 15 Countries

      By: Lara B. Aknin, Bernardo Andretti, Rafael Goldszmidt, John F. Helliwell, Anna Petherick, Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, Elizabeth W. Dunn, Daisy Fancourt, Elkhonon Goldberg, Sarah P. Jones, Ozge Karadag, Elie Karam, Richard Layard, Shekhar Saxena, Emily Thornton, Ashley Whillans and Jamil Zaki
      To date, public health policies implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have been evaluated on the basis of their ability to reduce transmission and minimise economic harm. We aimed to assess the association between COVID-19 policy restrictions and mental health...  View Details
      Keywords: Public Health; COVID-19; Mental Health; Policy; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Well-being
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      Aknin, Lara B., Bernardo Andretti, Rafael Goldszmidt, John F. Helliwell, Anna Petherick, Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, Elizabeth W. Dunn, Daisy Fancourt, Elkhonon Goldberg, Sarah P. Jones, Ozge Karadag, Elie Karam, Richard Layard, Shekhar Saxena, Emily Thornton, Ashley Whillans, and Jamil Zaki. "Policy Stringency and Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Longitudinal Analysis of Data from 15 Countries." Lancet Public Health 7, no. 5 (May 2022): e417–e426.
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Contractual Restrictions and Debt Traps

      By: Ernest Liu and Benjamin N. Roth
      Microcredit and other forms of small-scale finance have failed to catalyze entrepreneurship in developing countries. In these credit markets, borrowers and lenders often bargain over not only the interest rate but also implicit restrictions on types of investment. We...  View Details
      Keywords: Microfinance; Entrepreneurship; Developing Countries and Economies; Financing and Loans
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      Liu, Ernest, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Contractual Restrictions and Debt Traps." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 3 (March 2022): 1141–1182.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects

      By: Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina and Ali Ozdagli
      High-yield debt including leveraged loans is characterized by incurrence financial covenants, or “cov-lite” provisions. A traditional loan agreement includes maintenance covenants, which require continuous compliance with the covenant threshold, and their violation...  View Details
      Keywords: Debt Covenants; Incurrence Covenants; Borrowing and Debt; Banks and Banking
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      Bräuning, Falk, Victoria Ivashina, and Ali Ozdagli. "High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29888, March 2022.
      • February 2022
      • Case

      Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi: Leading Through the Fog of the COVID-19 Pandemic

      By: Linda A. Hill and Emily Tedards
      As COVID-19 began to take lives, destroy healthcare systems, and shut down economies across the globe, Dr. Rakesh Suri, Chief Executive Officer of Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi, and his executive team adapted their leadership to instill the new levels of agility and...  View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Behavior; Culture; Organizational Culture; Organizational Adaptation; Organizational Effectiveness; Alignment; Leadership; Innovation; Diversity; Collaboration; Co-creation; Learning Organizations; Empowerment; Teamwork; Ecosystem; Agility; Partnerships; Data-driven Decision-making; Operating Model; Risk Management; Virtual Work; Team Dynamics; Telemedicine; Metrics; Globalization; Pandemic; COVID-19; Hospital; Healthcare; United Arab Emirates; Middle East; Health Care and Treatment; Health Pandemics; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Crisis Management; Leading Change; Leadership Style; Digital Transformation; United Arab Emirates; Middle East
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      Hill, Linda A., and Emily Tedards. "Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi: Leading Through the Fog of the COVID-19 Pandemic." Harvard Business School Case 422-057, February 2022.
      • February 2022
      • Article

      Sugar-sweetened Beverage Purchases and Intake at Event Arenas with and without a Portion Size Cap

      By: Sheri Volger, James Scott Parrott, Brian Elbel, Leslie K. John, Jason P. Block, Pamela Rothpletz-Puglia and Christina A. Roberto
      This is the first real-world study to examine the association between a voluntary 16-ounce (oz.) portion-size cap on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) at a sporting arena on volume of SSBs and food calories purchased and consumed during basketball games. Cross-sectional...  View Details
      Keywords: Sugar-sweetened Beverages; Nutrition Policy; Obesity Prevention; Portion Sizes; Nutrition; Policy; Health; Behavior
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      Volger, Sheri, James Scott Parrott, Brian Elbel, Leslie K. John, Jason P. Block, Pamela Rothpletz-Puglia, and Christina A. Roberto. "Sugar-sweetened Beverage Purchases and Intake at Event Arenas with and without a Portion Size Cap." Art. 101661. Preventative Medicine Reports 25 (February 2022).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is

      By: Alex Chinco and Marco Sammon
      We estimate that passive investors held 37.8% of the US stock market in 2020. This value comes from studying the closing volumes of index additions and deletions on reconstitution day. 37.8% is more than double the widely accepted previous estimate of 15%, which...  View Details
      Keywords: Indexing; Passive Investing; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Russell Reconstitution Day; Trading Volume; Information-based Asset Pricing; Investment; Investment Funds; Asset Pricing
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      Chinco, Alex, and Marco Sammon. "The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • January 2022
      • Background Note

      Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left

      By: William C. Kirby and Noah B. Truwit
      Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been mistrustful of entrepreneurs and the private sector that operates outside the government’s authority. In its first decades under Mao Zedong, the CCP...  View Details
      Keywords: Market Reform; Gdp; Government Administration; Government and Politics; Private Sector; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Economy; Globalized Economies and Regions; Entrepreneurship; Business and Government Relations; Globalized Markets and Industries; Social Issues; Society; Economic Growth; China
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      Kirby, William C., and Noah B. Truwit. "Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left." Harvard Business School Background Note 322-069, January 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Do Safety Management System Standards Indicate Safer Operations? Evidence from the OHSAS 18001 Occupational Health and Safety Standard

      By: Kala Viswanathan, Matthew S. Johnson and Michael W. Toffel
      Problem definition: In light of the enormous disruptions and costs associated with occupational injuries, companies and buyers are increasingly looking to voluntary occupational health and safety standards to improve worker safety. Yet because these standards...  View Details
      Keywords: Occupational Health; Occupational Safety; Program Evaluation; Safety Performance; Injuries; OHSAS 18001; ISO 45001; Standards; Safety; Quality; Operations; Performance Evaluation; Manufacturing Industry; United States
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      Viswanathan, Kala, Matthew S. Johnson, and Michael W. Toffel. "Do Safety Management System Standards Indicate Safer Operations? Evidence from the OHSAS 18001 Occupational Health and Safety Standard." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-042, December 2021. (Revised November 2022.)
      • September 2021
      • Article

      Learning from Deregulation: The Asymmetric Impact of Lockdown and Reopening on Risky Behavior During COVID-19

      By: Edward L. Glaeser, Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Benjamin T. Leyden
      During the COVID-19 pandemic, states issued and then rescinded stay-at-home orders that restricted mobility. We develop a model of learning by deregulation, which predicts that lifting stay-at-home orders can signal that going out has become safer. Using restaurant...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Lockdown; Reopening; Impact; Coronavirus; Public Health Measures; Mobility; Health Pandemics; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Consumer Behavior
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      Glaeser, Edward L., Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca, and Benjamin T. Leyden. "Learning from Deregulation: The Asymmetric Impact of Lockdown and Reopening on Risky Behavior During COVID-19." Special Issue on COVID-19 and Regional Economies. Journal of Regional Science 61, no. 4 (September 2021): 696–709.
      • June 2021 (Revised October 2021)
      • Case

      Nissan's Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

      By: Ananth Raman, William Schmidt and Ann Winslow
      In January 2020, Ashwani Gupta took over as COO at Nissan Motor Corporation, and several weeks later, the COVID-19 pandemic began. Nissan’s Business Continuity Plan (BCP) had been key to the resilience of Nissan’s supply chain. It had enabled Nissan to recover from...  View Details
      Keywords: Operations; Supply Chain Management; Health Pandemics; Auto Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Japan; India
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      Raman, Ananth, William Schmidt, and Ann Winslow. "Nissan's Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic." Harvard Business School Case 621-057, June 2021. (Revised October 2021.)
      • March 2021
      • Supplement

      Snapp: Scaling Under Sanctions in Iran (B)

      By: Meg Rithmire and Gamze Yucaoglu
      The case opens in November 2020 as Eyad Alkassar and Mahmoud Fouz, co-founders of Iran’s first and leading ride-hailing platform, Snapp, eagerly await the results of the U.S. presidential elections.
      The case takes us through the challenging times between...  View Details
      Keywords: Sanctions; Change Management; Disruption; Volatility; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Government and Politics; International Relations; National Security; Crisis Management; Risk Management; Health Pandemics; Transportation Industry; Middle East; Iran
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      Rithmire, Meg, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Snapp: Scaling Under Sanctions in Iran (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 721-036, March 2021.
      • Article

      CDS Trading and Nonrelationship Lending Dynamics

      By: Jung Koo Kang, Christopher Williams and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman
      We investigate how credit default swaps (CDSs) affect lenders’ incentives to initiate new lending relationships. We predict that CDSs reduce adverse selection that nonrelationship lead arrangers face when competing for loans. Consistently, we find that a loan is...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Default Swaps; CDS Market; Non-relationship Lending; Debt Contracts; Adverse Selection; Lending Monitoring; Cross-selling
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      Kang, Jung Koo, Christopher Williams, and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman. "CDS Trading and Nonrelationship Lending Dynamics." Review of Accounting Studies 26, no. 1 (March 2021): 258–292.
      • March 2021
      • Article

      The Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation on Internet Interconnection

      By: Ran Zhuo, Bradley Huffaker, KC Claffy and Shane Greenstein
      The Internet comprises thousands of independently operated networks, where bilaterally negotiated interconnection agreements determine the flow of data between networks. The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) imposes strict restrictions on...  View Details
      Keywords: Personal Data; Privacy Regulation; GDPR; Interconnection Agreements; Internet and the Web; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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      Zhuo, Ran, Bradley Huffaker, KC Claffy, and Shane Greenstein. "The Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation on Internet Interconnection." Telecommunications Policy 45, no. 2 (March 2021).
      • Article

      Research: The Cost of a Single U.S. Immigration Restriction

      By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury and Britta Glennon
      On June 22, 2020, President Trump passed an Executive Order drastically cutting the number of highly skilled international workers eligible for non-immigrant visas to the U.S. To quantify the impact of this policy, the authors examined the immediate change in stock...  View Details
      Keywords: Work Visas; H1-B; Restriction; Impact; Immigration; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Cost; Economy
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      Bahar, Dany, Prithwiraj Choudhury, and Britta Glennon. "Research: The Cost of a Single U.S. Immigration Restriction." Harvard Business Review (website) (January 22, 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies

      By: Ishita Sen and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva
      Homeowners’ insurance provides households financial protection from climate losses. To improve access and affordability, state regulators impose price controls on insurance companies. Using novel data, we construct a new measure of rate setting frictions for individual...  View Details
      Keywords: Climate Risk; Homeowners' Insurance; Price Controls; Financial Regulation; Cross-subsidization; Climate Change; Household; Insurance; Price; Governance Controls; Financial Institutions; United States
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      Sen, Ishita, and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva. "Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 3762235, June 2022. (Revised June 2022.)
      • Article

      Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?

      By: Janet Gao, Kristoph Kleiner and Joseph Pacelli
      We examine whether bankers face disciplining consequences for structuring poorly performing corporate loans. We construct a novel data set containing the employment histories and loan portfolios of a large sample of corporate bankers and find that corporate credit...  View Details
      Keywords: Syndicated Loans; Credit Events; Career Outcomes; Loan Officers; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Risk Management; Corporate Finance; Personal Development and Career
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      Gao, Janet, Kristoph Kleiner, and Joseph Pacelli. "Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?" Review of Financial Studies 33, no. 12 (December 2020): 5706–5749.
      • Article

      The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19

      By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon and Tasaneeya Viratyosin
      No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text-based methods to develop these points with...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Market; Health Pandemics; Governance; Policy; Financial Markets
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      Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon, and Tasaneeya Viratyosin. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19." Review of Asset Pricing Studies 10, no. 4 (December 2020): 742–758.
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