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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (138)
    • Faculty Publications  (25)

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    • All HBS Web  (138)
      • Faculty Publications  (25)

      Regression Discontinuity Design Remove Regression Discontinuity Design →

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      • 2023
      • Article

      Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators

      By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in...  View Details
      Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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      Jakubowski, Benjamin, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators." Journal of Machine Learning Research 24, no. 133 (2023): 1–57.
      • March–April 2023
      • Article

      Market Segmentation Trees

      By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
      Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing
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      Aouad, Ali, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira, and Ryan McNellis. "Market Segmentation Trees." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 648–667.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections

      By: Kevin Dano, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
      In theory, free and fair elections can improve the selection of politicians and incentivize them to exert effort. In practice, incumbency advantage and coordination issues may lead to the (re)election of bad politicians. We ask whether these two forces compound each...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Parties; Incumbent Politicians; Democracy; Political Elections; Competitive Advantage
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      Dano, Kevin, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec, and Vincent Pons. "Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30541, October 2022.
      • September 2022
      • Article

      The Impact of Financial Assistance Programs on Health Care Utilization: Evidence from Kaiser Permanente

      By: Alyce S. Adams, Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Jinglin Wang, Francis Wong and Wesley Yin
      Most hospitals have financial assistance programs for low-income patients. We use administrative data from Kaiser Permanente to study the effects of financial assistance on health care utilization. Using a regression discontinuity design based on an income threshold...  View Details
      Keywords: Healthcare; Utilization; Financial Assistance; Health Care and Treatment; Social Issues; Poverty; Health Industry
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      Adams, Alyce S., Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Jinglin Wang, Francis Wong, and Wesley Yin. "The Impact of Financial Assistance Programs on Health Care Utilization: Evidence from Kaiser Permanente." American Economic Review: Insights 4, no. 3 (September 2022): 389–407.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Innovation on Wings: Nonstop Flights and Firm Innovation in the Global Context

      By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury, Do Yoon Kim and Wesley W. Koo
      We study whether, when, and how better connectivity through nonstop flights leads to positive innovation outcomes for firms in the global context. Using unique data of all flights emanating from 5,015 airports around the globe from 2005 to 2015 and exploiting a...  View Details
      Keywords: Nonstop Flights; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Patents; Research and Development; Air Transportation Industry
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      Bahar, Dany, Prithwiraj Choudhury, Do Yoon Kim, and Wesley W. Koo. "Innovation on Wings: Nonstop Flights and Firm Innovation in the Global Context." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-009, July 2022.
      • Article

      How Much Should We Trust Staggered Difference-In-Differences Estimates?

      By: Andrew C. Baker, David F. Larcker and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We explain when and how staggered difference-in-differences regression estimators, commonly applied to assess the impact of policy changes, are biased. These biases are likely to be relevant for a large portion of research settings in finance, accounting, and law that...  View Details
      Keywords: Difference In Differences; Staggered Difference-in-differences Designs; Generalized Difference-in-differences; Dynamic Treatment Effects; Mathematical Methods
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      Baker, Andrew C., David F. Larcker, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "How Much Should We Trust Staggered Difference-In-Differences Estimates?" Journal of Financial Economics 144, no. 2 (May 2022): 370–395. (Editor's Choice, May 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Electoral Turnovers

      By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
      In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...  View Details
      Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement
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      Marx, Benjamin, Vincent Pons, and Vincent Rollet. "Electoral Turnovers." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29766, February 2022. (Revise and resubmit requested, Review of Economic Studies.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of Campaign Finance Rules on Candidate Selection and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from France

      By: Nikolaj Broberg, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
      This paper investigates the effects of campaign finance rules on electoral outcomes. In French departmental and municipal elections, candidates competing in districts above 9,000 inhabitants face spending limits and are eligible for public reimbursement if they obtain...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Elections; Finance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Outcome or Result; France
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      Broberg, Nikolaj, Vincent Pons, and Clémence Tricaud. "The Impact of Campaign Finance Rules on Candidate Selection and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from France." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29805, February 2022.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      How Do CEOs Make Strategy?

      By: Mu-Jeung Yang, Michael Christensen, Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and Jan Rivkin
      We explore the critical question of how executives make strategic decisions. Utilizing a new survey of 262 CEO alumni of Harvard Business School, we gather evidence on four aspects of each executive’s business strategy: its overall structure, its formalization, its...  View Details
      Keywords: Productivity; CEO; Strategy; Management; Decision Making; Surveys; Business Education
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      Yang, Mu-Jeung, Michael Christensen, Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun, and Jan Rivkin. "How Do CEOs Make Strategy?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-063, October 2020.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia

      By: Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge Tamayo
      Canonical models of criminal behavior highlight the importance of economic incentives and employment opportunities in determining participation in crime (Becker, 1968). Yet, deriving causal corroborating evidence from individual-level variation in employment incentives...  View Details
      Keywords: Gangs; Informality; Medellí­n; Economic Sectors; Crime and Corruption; Health Care and Treatment; Policy; Colombia
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      Khanna, Gaurav, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo. "Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-099, March 2019. (Conditionally Accepted: Economic Journal.)
      • 2019
      • Article

      Big Data

      By: John A. Deighton
      Big data is defined and distinguished from a mere moment in the “ancient quest to measure.” Specific discontinuities in the practice of information science are identified that, the paper argues, have large consequences for the social order. The infrastructure that runs...  View Details
      Keywords: Big Data; Digital Infrastructure; Privacy; Algorithm; Data Generators; Marketplace Icon; Analytics and Data Science; Infrastructure; Power and Influence; Society
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      Deighton, John A. "Big Data." Consumption, Markets & Culture 22, no. 1 (2019): 68–73.
      • September 2018
      • Article

      Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates

      By: Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
      In French parliamentary and local elections, candidates ranked first and second in the first round automatically qualify for the second round, while a third candidate qualifies only when selected by more than 12.5 percent of registered citizens. Using a fuzzy RDD...  View Details
      Keywords: Expressive Voting; Strategic Voting; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; France
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      Pons, Vincent, and Clémence Tricaud. "Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates." Econometrica 86, no. 5 (September 2018): 1621–1649.
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates

      By: Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
      In French parliamentary and local elections, candidates ranked first and second in the first round automatically qualify for the second round, while a third candidate qualifies only when selected by more than 12.5 percent of registered citizens. Using a fuzzy RDD...  View Details
      Keywords: Expressive Voting; Strategic Voting; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; France
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      Pons, Vincent, and Clémence Tricaud. "Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-107, May 2017. (Revised February 2018. Revise and resubmit requested, Econometrica.)
      • March 2017
      • Article

      Institutional Ownership and Corporate Tax Avoidance: New Evidence

      By: Mozaffar N. Khan, Suraj Srinivasan and Liang Tan
      We provide new evidence on the agency theory of corporate tax avoidance (Slemrod, 2004; Crocker and Slemrod, 2005; Chen and Chu, 2005) by showing that increases in institutional ownership are associated with increases in tax avoidance. Using the Russell index...  View Details
      Keywords: Tax Avoidance; Agency Costs; Institutional Ownership; Private Ownership; Crime and Corruption; Taxation; Agency Theory
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      Khan, Mozaffar N., Suraj Srinivasan, and Liang Tan. "Institutional Ownership and Corporate Tax Avoidance: New Evidence." Accounting Review 92, no. 2 (March 2017): 101–122.
      • 2016
      • Chapter

      User-Generated Content and Social Media

      By: Michael Luca
      This paper documents what economists have learned about user-generated content (UGC) and social media. A growing body of evidence suggests that UGC on platforms ranging from Yelp to Facebook has a large causal impact on economic and social outcomes ranging from...  View Details
      Keywords: User-generated Content; Crowdsourcing; Design Economics; Internet and the Web; Marketing; Economics; Media; Social Media
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      Luca, Michael. "User-Generated Content and Social Media." Chap. 12 in Handbook of Media Economics. Vol. 1B, edited by Simon Anderson, Joel Waldfogel, and David Strömberg. North-Holland Publishing Company, 2016.
      • 2014
      • Working Paper

      Visualizing and Measuring Software Portfolio Architectures: A Flexibility Analysis

      By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack and David Dreyfus
      In this paper, we test a method for visualizing and measuring software portfolio architectures and use our measures to predict the costs of architectural change. Our data is drawn from a biopharmaceutical company, comprising 407 architectural components with 1,157...  View Details
      Keywords: Design Structure Matrices; Software Architecture; Flexibility; Software Application Portfolio; Complexity; Applications and Software; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Lagerstrom, Robert, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, and David Dreyfus. "Visualizing and Measuring Software Portfolio Architectures: A Flexibility Analysis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-083, March 2014.
      • January 2014
      • Article

      The Consequences of Entrepreneurial Finance: Evidence from Angel Financings

      By: William R. Kerr, Josh Lerner and Antoinette Schoar
      This paper documents that ventures that are funded by two successful angel groups experience superior outcomes to rejected ventures: they have improved survival, exits, employment, patenting, web traffic, and financing. We use strong discontinuities in angel funding...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Ventures; Financing and Loans; Interests; Employment; Patents; Internet and the Web; Operations; Entrepreneurship; Business Exit or Shutdown
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      Kerr, William R., Josh Lerner, and Antoinette Schoar. "The Consequences of Entrepreneurial Finance: Evidence from Angel Financings." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 1 (January 2014): 20–55.
      • November 2013
      • Article

      The Performance of Corporate Alliances: Evidence from Oil and Gas Drilling in the Gulf of Mexico

      By: John Beshears
      I use data on oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico to measure how a corporate alliance—a group of firms that jointly develops an offshore tract—performs relative to a solo firm. I employ a regression discontinuity strategy based on bids in first-price sealed-bid...  View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Form; Corporate Alliances; Oil And Gas Production; Lease Auctions; Regression Discontinuity; Alliances; Organizational Structure; Auctions; Performance; Energy Sources; Leasing; Energy Industry
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      Beshears, John. "The Performance of Corporate Alliances: Evidence from Oil and Gas Drilling in the Gulf of Mexico." Journal of Financial Economics 110, no. 2 (November 2013): 324–346.
      • March 2013
      • Article

      Bridging the Gap? Government Subsidized Lending and Access to Capital

      By: Josh Lerner and Kristle Romero-Cortes
      The consequences of providing public funds to financial institutions remain controversial. We examine the Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI) Fund's impact on credit union activity, using hitherto little studied U.S. Treasury data. The CDFI Fund grants...  View Details
      Keywords: Financing and Loans; Credit; Government and Politics; Financial Institutions; United States
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      Lerner, Josh, and Kristle Romero-Cortes. "Bridging the Gap? Government Subsidized Lending and Access to Capital." Review of Corporate Finance Studies 2, no. 1 (March 2013): 98–128.
      • 2016
      • Working Paper

      Reviews, Reputation, and Revenue: The Case of Yelp.com

      By: Michael Luca
      Do online consumer reviews affect restaurant demand? I investigate this question using a novel dataset combining reviews from the website Yelp.com and restaurant data from the Washington State Department of Revenue. Because Yelp prominently displays a restaurant's...  View Details
      Keywords: Revenue; Network Effects; Reputation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Food and Beverage Industry; Service Industry; Washington (state, US)
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      Luca, Michael. "Reviews, Reputation, and Revenue: The Case of Yelp.com." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-016, September 2011. (Revised March 2016.)
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