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  • 2023
  • Article

Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators
By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in...  View Details
Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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  • March–April 2023
  • Article

Market Segmentation Trees
By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market...  View Details
Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections
By: Kevin Dano, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
In theory, free and fair elections can improve the selection of politicians and incentivize them to exert effort. In practice, incumbency advantage and coordination issues may lead to the (re)election of bad politicians. We ask whether these two forces compound each...  View Details
Keywords: Political Parties; Incumbent Politicians; Democracy; Political Elections; Competitive Advantage
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  • September 2022
  • Article

The Impact of Financial Assistance Programs on Health Care Utilization: Evidence from Kaiser Permanente
By: Alyce S. Adams, Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Jinglin Wang, Francis Wong and Wesley Yin
Most hospitals have financial assistance programs for low-income patients. We use administrative data from Kaiser Permanente to study the effects of financial assistance on health care utilization. Using a regression discontinuity design based on an income threshold...  View Details
Keywords: Healthcare; Utilization; Financial Assistance; Health Care and Treatment; Social Issues; Poverty; Health Industry
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Innovation on Wings: Nonstop Flights and Firm Innovation in the Global Context
By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury, Do Yoon Kim and Wesley W. Koo
We study whether, when, and how better connectivity through nonstop flights leads to positive innovation outcomes for firms in the global context. Using unique data of all flights emanating from 5,015 airports around the globe from 2005 to 2015 and exploiting a...  View Details
Keywords: Nonstop Flights; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Patents; Research and Development; Air Transportation Industry
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  • Article

How Much Should We Trust Staggered Difference-In-Differences Estimates?
By: Andrew C. Baker, David F. Larcker and Charles C.Y. Wang
We explain when and how staggered difference-in-differences regression estimators, commonly applied to assess the impact of policy changes, are biased. These biases are likely to be relevant for a large portion of research settings in finance, accounting, and law that...  View Details
Keywords: Difference In Differences; Staggered Difference-in-differences Designs; Generalized Difference-in-differences; Dynamic Treatment Effects; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Electoral Turnovers
By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...  View Details
Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

The Impact of Campaign Finance Rules on Candidate Selection and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from France
By: Nikolaj Broberg, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
This paper investigates the effects of campaign finance rules on electoral outcomes. In French departmental and municipal elections, candidates competing in districts above 9,000 inhabitants face spending limits and are eligible for public reimbursement if they obtain...  View Details
Keywords: Political Elections; Finance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Outcome or Result; France
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

How Do CEOs Make Strategy?
By: Mu-Jeung Yang, Michael Christensen, Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and Jan Rivkin
We explore the critical question of how executives make strategic decisions. Utilizing a new survey of 262 CEO alumni of Harvard Business School, we gather evidence on four aspects of each executive’s business strategy: its overall structure, its formalization, its...  View Details
Keywords: Productivity; CEO; Strategy; Management; Decision Making; Surveys; Business Education
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  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia
By: Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge Tamayo
Canonical models of criminal behavior highlight the importance of economic incentives and employment opportunities in determining participation in crime (Becker, 1968). Yet, deriving causal corroborating evidence from individual-level variation in employment incentives...  View Details
Keywords: Gangs; Informality; Medellí­n; Economic Sectors; Crime and Corruption; Health Care and Treatment; Policy; Colombia
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  • 2019
  • Article

Big Data
By: John A. Deighton
Big data is defined and distinguished from a mere moment in the “ancient quest to measure.” Specific discontinuities in the practice of information science are identified that, the paper argues, have large consequences for the social order. The infrastructure that runs...  View Details
Keywords: Big Data; Digital Infrastructure; Privacy; Algorithm; Data Generators; Marketplace Icon; Analytics and Data Science; Infrastructure; Power and Influence; Society
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  • September 2018
  • Article

Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates
By: Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
In French parliamentary and local elections, candidates ranked first and second in the first round automatically qualify for the second round, while a third candidate qualifies only when selected by more than 12.5 percent of registered citizens. Using a fuzzy RDD...  View Details
Keywords: Expressive Voting; Strategic Voting; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; France
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  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates
By: Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
In French parliamentary and local elections, candidates ranked first and second in the first round automatically qualify for the second round, while a third candidate qualifies only when selected by more than 12.5 percent of registered citizens. Using a fuzzy RDD...  View Details
Keywords: Expressive Voting; Strategic Voting; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; France
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  • March 2017
  • Article

Institutional Ownership and Corporate Tax Avoidance: New Evidence
By: Mozaffar N. Khan, Suraj Srinivasan and Liang Tan
We provide new evidence on the agency theory of corporate tax avoidance (Slemrod, 2004; Crocker and Slemrod, 2005; Chen and Chu, 2005) by showing that increases in institutional ownership are associated with increases in tax avoidance. Using the Russell index...  View Details
Keywords: Tax Avoidance; Agency Costs; Institutional Ownership; Private Ownership; Crime and Corruption; Taxation; Agency Theory
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  • 2016
  • Chapter

User-Generated Content and Social Media
By: Michael Luca
This paper documents what economists have learned about user-generated content (UGC) and social media. A growing body of evidence suggests that UGC on platforms ranging from Yelp to Facebook has a large causal impact on economic and social outcomes ranging from...  View Details
Keywords: User-generated Content; Crowdsourcing; Design Economics; Internet and the Web; Marketing; Economics; Media; Social Media
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  • 2014
  • Working Paper

Visualizing and Measuring Software Portfolio Architectures: A Flexibility Analysis
By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack and David Dreyfus
In this paper, we test a method for visualizing and measuring software portfolio architectures and use our measures to predict the costs of architectural change. Our data is drawn from a biopharmaceutical company, comprising 407 architectural components with 1,157...  View Details
Keywords: Design Structure Matrices; Software Architecture; Flexibility; Software Application Portfolio; Complexity; Applications and Software; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • January 2014
  • Article

The Consequences of Entrepreneurial Finance: Evidence from Angel Financings
By: William R. Kerr, Josh Lerner and Antoinette Schoar
This paper documents that ventures that are funded by two successful angel groups experience superior outcomes to rejected ventures: they have improved survival, exits, employment, patenting, web traffic, and financing. We use strong discontinuities in angel funding...  View Details
Keywords: Business Ventures; Financing and Loans; Interests; Employment; Patents; Internet and the Web; Operations; Entrepreneurship; Business Exit or Shutdown
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  • November 2013
  • Article

The Performance of Corporate Alliances: Evidence from Oil and Gas Drilling in the Gulf of Mexico
By: John Beshears
I use data on oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico to measure how a corporate alliance—a group of firms that jointly develops an offshore tract—performs relative to a solo firm. I employ a regression discontinuity strategy based on bids in first-price sealed-bid...  View Details
Keywords: Organizational Form; Corporate Alliances; Oil And Gas Production; Lease Auctions; Regression Discontinuity; Alliances; Organizational Structure; Auctions; Performance; Energy Sources; Leasing; Energy Industry
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  • March 2013
  • Article

Bridging the Gap? Government Subsidized Lending and Access to Capital
By: Josh Lerner and Kristle Romero-Cortes
The consequences of providing public funds to financial institutions remain controversial. We examine the Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI) Fund's impact on credit union activity, using hitherto little studied U.S. Treasury data. The CDFI Fund grants...  View Details
Keywords: Financing and Loans; Credit; Government and Politics; Financial Institutions; United States
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  • 2016
  • Working Paper

Reviews, Reputation, and Revenue: The Case of Yelp.com
By: Michael Luca
Do online consumer reviews affect restaurant demand? I investigate this question using a novel dataset combining reviews from the website Yelp.com and restaurant data from the Washington State Department of Revenue. Because Yelp prominently displays a restaurant's...  View Details
Keywords: Revenue; Network Effects; Reputation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Food and Beverage Industry; Service Industry; Washington (state, US)
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