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  • October 2023
  • Article

Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates
By: Riako Granzier, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
Candidates’ placements in polls or past elections can be powerful coordination devices for both parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French elections, we show that candidates who place first by only a small margin in the first round are more...  View Details
Keywords: Strategic Voting; Coordination; Bandwagon Effect; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; France
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  • October 2023
  • Article

Innovation on Wings: When Do Nonstop Flights Matter for Global Innovation?
By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury, Do Yoon Kim and Wesley Koo
We study whether, when, and how better connectivity through nonstop flights leads to positive innovation outcomes for firms in the global context. Using unique data of all flights emanating from 5,015 airports around the globe from 2005 to 2015 and exploiting a...  View Details
Keywords: Nonstop Flights; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Patents; Research and Development; Air Transportation Industry
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  • August 2023
  • Article

Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia
By: Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Jorge Tamayo and Nicolas Torres
Safety net programs, common in settings with high informality like Latin America, often use a means test to establish eligibility. We ask: in settings in which organised crime provides lucrative opportunities in the informal market, will discouraging formal employment...  View Details
Keywords: Gangs; Informality; Crime and Corruption; Job Search; Recruitment; Colombia
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections
By: Rafael Di Tella, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
A key tenet of representative democracy is that politicians' discourse and policies should follow voters' preferences. In the median voter theorem, this outcome emerges as candidates strategically adjust their platform to get closer to their opponent. Despite its...  View Details
Keywords: Political Ideology; Political Elections; United States; France
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  • 2023
  • Article

Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators
By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in...  View Details
Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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  • May–June 2023
  • Article

Need for Speed: The Impact of In-Process Delays on Customer Behavior in Online Retail
By: Santiago Gallino, Nil Karacaoglu and Antonio Moreno
The impact of delays has been widely studied in various offline services. The focus of this study is online services, and we explore the impact of in-process delays—measured by website speed—on customer behavior. We leverage novel retail and website speed data to...  View Details
Keywords: Online Retail; Quasi-experiments; Abandonment; Synthetic Control; E-commerce; Internet and the Web; Consumer Behavior; Policy; Retail Industry
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  • March–April 2023
  • Article

Market Segmentation Trees
By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market...  View Details
Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections
By: Kevin Dano, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
In theory, free and fair elections can improve the selection of politicians and incentivize them to exert effort. In practice, incumbency advantage and coordination issues may lead to the (re)election of bad politicians. We ask whether these two forces compound each...  View Details
Keywords: Political Parties; Incumbent Politicians; Democracy; Political Elections; Competitive Advantage
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  • November 2022
  • Article

Impacts of Micromobility on Car Displacement with Evidence from a Natural Experiment and Geofencing Policy
By: Omar Isaac Asensio, Camila Apablaza, M. Cade Lawson, Edward W Chen and Savannah J Horner
Micromobility, such as electric scooters and electric bikes—an estimated US$300 billion global market by 2030—will accelerate electrification efforts and fundamentally change urban mobility patterns. However, the impacts of micromobility adoption on traffic congestion...  View Details
Keywords: City; Policy; Transportation; Sustainable Cities
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  • September 2022
  • Article

The Impact of Financial Assistance Programs on Health Care Utilization: Evidence from Kaiser Permanente
By: Alyce S. Adams, Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Jinglin Wang, Francis Wong and Wesley Yin
Most hospitals have financial assistance programs for low-income patients. We use administrative data from Kaiser Permanente to study the effects of financial assistance on health care utilization. Using a regression discontinuity design based on an income threshold...  View Details
Keywords: Healthcare; Utilization; Financial Assistance; Health Care and Treatment; Social Issues; Poverty; Health Industry
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Innovation on Wings: Nonstop Flights and Firm Innovation in the Global Context
By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury, Do Yoon Kim and Wesley W. Koo
We study whether, when, and how better connectivity through nonstop flights leads to positive innovation outcomes for firms in the global context. Using unique data of all flights emanating from 5,015 airports around the globe from 2005 to 2015 and exploiting a...  View Details
Keywords: Nonstop Flights; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Patents; Research and Development; Air Transportation Industry
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  • Article

How Much Should We Trust Staggered Difference-In-Differences Estimates?
By: Andrew C. Baker, David F. Larcker and Charles C.Y. Wang
We explain when and how staggered difference-in-differences regression estimators, commonly applied to assess the impact of policy changes, are biased. These biases are likely to be relevant for a large portion of research settings in finance, accounting, and law that...  View Details
Keywords: Difference In Differences; Staggered Difference-in-differences Designs; Generalized Difference-in-differences; Dynamic Treatment Effects; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Electoral Turnovers
By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...  View Details
Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

The Impact of Campaign Finance Rules on Candidate Selection and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from France
By: Nikolaj Broberg, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
This paper investigates the effects of campaign finance rules on electoral outcomes. In French departmental and municipal elections, candidates competing in districts above 9,000 inhabitants face spending limits and are eligible for public reimbursement if they obtain...  View Details
Keywords: Political Elections; Finance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Outcome or Result; France
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

How Do CEOs Make Strategy?
By: Mu-Jeung Yang, Michael Christensen, Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and Jan Rivkin
We explore the critical question of how executives make strategic decisions. Utilizing a new survey of 262 CEO alumni of Harvard Business School, we gather evidence on four aspects of each executive’s business strategy: its overall structure, its formalization, its...  View Details
Keywords: Productivity; CEO; Strategy; Management; Decision Making; Surveys; Business Education
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  • October 2020
  • Article

Patronage and Selection in Public Sector Organizations
By: Emanuele Colonnelli, Mounu Prem and Edoardo Teso
In all modern bureaucracies, politicians retain some discretion in public employment decisions, which may lead to frictions in the selection process if political connections substitute for individual competence. Relying on detailed matched employer-employee data on the...  View Details
Keywords: Employees; Selection and Staffing; Political Elections; Public Sector; Brazil
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  • 2019
  • Article

Big Data
By: John A. Deighton
Big data is defined and distinguished from a mere moment in the “ancient quest to measure.” Specific discontinuities in the practice of information science are identified that, the paper argues, have large consequences for the social order. The infrastructure that runs...  View Details
Keywords: Big Data; Digital Infrastructure; Privacy; Algorithm; Data Generators; Marketplace Icon; Analytics and Data Science; Infrastructure; Power and Influence; Society
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  • September 2018
  • Article

Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates
By: Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
In French parliamentary and local elections, candidates ranked first and second in the first round automatically qualify for the second round, while a third candidate qualifies only when selected by more than 12.5 percent of registered citizens. Using a fuzzy RDD...  View Details
Keywords: Expressive Voting; Strategic Voting; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; France
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  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates
By: Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
In French parliamentary and local elections, candidates ranked first and second in the first round automatically qualify for the second round, while a third candidate qualifies only when selected by more than 12.5 percent of registered citizens. Using a fuzzy RDD...  View Details
Keywords: Expressive Voting; Strategic Voting; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; France
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  • March 2017
  • Article

Institutional Ownership and Corporate Tax Avoidance: New Evidence
By: Mozaffar N. Khan, Suraj Srinivasan and Liang Tan
We provide new evidence on the agency theory of corporate tax avoidance (Slemrod, 2004; Crocker and Slemrod, 2005; Chen and Chu, 2005) by showing that increases in institutional ownership are associated with increases in tax avoidance. Using the Russell index...  View Details
Keywords: Tax Avoidance; Agency Costs; Institutional Ownership; Private Ownership; Crime and Corruption; Taxation; Agency Theory
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