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- March 2024
- Article
Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups
By: Shai Bernstein, Richard Townsend and Ting Xu
Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how individuals’ job search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that job seekers shifted their searches toward more established firms and away from early-stage startups, even...
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Bernstein, Shai, Richard Townsend, and Ting Xu. "Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups." Review of Financial Studies 37, no. 3 (March 2024): 837–881.
- January 2024 (Revised May 2024)
- Case
Pioneer Natural Resources: Enhancing the Capital Return Strategy with Variable Dividends
In February 2021, Scott Sheffield, the CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources (an independent oil and gas company based in Texas), was considering the possibility of enhancing the firm’s capital return strategy by introducing a variable dividend tied to cash flows in...
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Keywords:
Corporate Finance;
Cash Flow;
Financial Management;
Financial Strategy;
Value Creation;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Investment Return;
Profit;
Policy;
Business and Shareholder Relations;
Energy Industry;
United States;
North America;
Texas
Esty, Benjamin C., Elisabeth Kempf, and E. Scott Mayfield. "Pioneer Natural Resources: Enhancing the Capital Return Strategy with Variable Dividends." Harvard Business School Case 224-001, January 2024. (Revised May 2024.)
- 2023
- Book
The Portfolio Life: How to Future-Proof Your Career, Avoid Burnout, and Build a Life Bigger than Your Business Card
Pouring yourself into a single full-time job is the riskiest move you can make. Your parents’ advice to focus on one career path? It doesn’t work anymore, for reasons ranging from recessions to student loan debt, the gig economy, climate disasters, and a global...
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Wallace, Christina. The Portfolio Life: How to Future-Proof Your Career, Avoid Burnout, and Build a Life Bigger than Your Business Card. Balance, 2023.
- February 2023 (Revised May 2023)
- Case
CalPERS Private Equity 2.0
By: Josh Lerner, John D. Dionne and Alys Ferragamo
Yup Kim, the Head of Investments, Private Equity at the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), reflected on the pension fund’s private equity strategy. In July of 2022, the fund was in the midst of a multi-year turnaround strategy with the goal to...
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Lerner, Josh, John D. Dionne, and Alys Ferragamo. "CalPERS Private Equity 2.0." Harvard Business School Case 223-048, February 2023. (Revised May 2023.)
- November 10, 2022
- Article
5 Ways Startups Can Prepare for a Recession
By: Lou Shipley
Startups face unique challenges during economic downturns. They typically aren’t yet profitable and so are reliant on outside funding—and therefore are especially exposed when macroeconomic conditions change. To make it through a recession, startup CEOs should hit the...
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Keywords:
Entrepreneurship;
Organizational Culture;
Sales;
Customer Focus and Relationships;
Decisions;
Inflation and Deflation;
Financial Crisis;
Employee Relationship Management;
Business Startups;
Credit
Shipley, Lou. "5 Ways Startups Can Prepare for a Recession." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (November 10, 2022).
- July 28, 2022
- Article
How to Build a Life: How to Be Happy in a Recession
By: Arthur C. Brooks
Brooks, Arthur C. "How to Build a Life: How to Be Happy in a Recession." The Atlantic (July 28, 2022).
- 2022
- Chapter
Lessons Learned from Support to Business during COVID-19
By: Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Benjamin Iverson and Adi Sunderam
The authors survey the new federal subsidies and loans provided to businesses in the first year of the pandemic—including the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program, and aid targeted at specific industries such as airlines...
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Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, Benjamin Iverson, and Adi Sunderam. "Lessons Learned from Support to Business during COVID-19." Chap. 4 in Recession Remedies: Lessons Learned from the U.S. Economic Policy Response to COVID-19, edited by Wendy Edelberg, Louise Sheiner, and David Wessel, 123–162. Brookings Institution Press, 2022.
- April 2022
- Article
National Customer Orientation: A Framework, Propositions and Agenda for Future Research
By: Ofer Mintz, Imran S. Currim and Rohit Deshpandé
Purpose: This paper aims to propose a new country-level construct, national customer orientation, to provide a benchmark for global headquartered managers’ decisions and scholars investigating cross-national research.
Design/methodology/approach: A conceptual... View Details
Design/methodology/approach: A conceptual... View Details
Keywords:
International Marketing;
Macro-marketing;
Marketing;
Financial Crisis;
Customer Focus and Relationships;
Economic Growth;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
Mintz, Ofer, Imran S. Currim, and Rohit Deshpandé. "National Customer Orientation: A Framework, Propositions and Agenda for Future Research." European Journal of Marketing 56, no. 4 (April 2022): 1014–1041.
- October 2021 (Revised November 2022)
- Case
The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats, or Leveling Down?
By: Vincent Pons, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella and Elena Corsi
Since 1978, Spain had struggled to control unemployment. The country’s labor law was protective of employees hired long-term and companies used temporary contracts as buffers. In 2012, amid economic recession and a 23.6% unemployment rate, a center-right government of...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Labor Market;
Unemployment;
Recession;
Globalized Markets and Industries;
Government Legislation;
International Relations;
Working Conditions;
Employment;
Labor Unions;
Contracts;
Social Issues;
Public Opinion;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Spain;
European Union
Pons, Vincent, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella, and Elena Corsi. "The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats, or Leveling Down?" Harvard Business School Case 722-008, October 2021. (Revised November 2022.)
- July–August 2021
- Article
Lowering the Bar? External Conditions, Opportunity Costs, and High-Tech Startup Outcomes
By: Annamaria Conti and Maria P. Roche
We assess the heterogeneous impact of economic downturns on individuals’ decisions to bring high-technology ideas to the market in the form of new ventures. We thereby examine how worsening labor market conditions influence individuals’ opportunity costs of starting...
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Keywords:
Necessity Entrepreneurship;
Economic Conditions;
Recessions;
High-tech Startups;
Opportunity Costs;
Entrepreneurship;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation;
Business Startups;
Information Technology;
Performance;
Labor
Conti, Annamaria, and Maria P. Roche. "Lowering the Bar? External Conditions, Opportunity Costs, and High-Tech Startup Outcomes." Organization Science 32, no. 4 (July–August 2021): 965–986.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Nonbank Lending and Credit Cyclicality
By: Quirin Fleckenstein, Manasa Gopal, German Gutierrez and Sebastian Hillenbrand
We document three facts about nonbank lending in the syndicated loan market. First, nonbank lending is more than twice as cyclical as bank lending. Second, declines in nonbank lending explain most of the declines in syndicated lending during the Great Recession and...
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Keywords:
Nonbank Lending;
Credit Cycles;
CLO;
Mutual Funds;
Leveraged Lending;
COVID-19;
Great Migration;
Non-bank Financial Institutions;
Financing and Loans;
Business Cycles
Fleckenstein, Quirin, Manasa Gopal, German Gutierrez, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Nonbank Lending and Credit Cyclicality." Working Paper, June 2021.
- February 2021
- Article
Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession
By: S. Bernstein, T. McQuade and R. Townsend
We investigate how the deterioration of household balance sheets affects worker productivity, and, in turn, economic downturns. Specifically, we compare the output of innovative workers who experienced differential declines in housing wealth during the financial crisis...
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Keywords:
Great Recession;
Household;
Financial Condition;
System Shocks;
Employees;
Performance Productivity
Bernstein, S., T. McQuade, and R. Townsend. "Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession." Journal of Finance 76, no. 1 (February 2021): 57–111.
- January 2021
- Article
Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times
By: Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? We present a model of delegation within the firm to show that the effect is ambiguous. The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information...
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Keywords:
Decentralization;
Growth;
Turbulence;
Great Recession;
Organizational Design;
System Shocks;
Economic Growth;
Performance
Aghion, Philippe, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 13, no. 1 (January 2021): 133–169.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups
By: Shai Bernstein, Richard Townsend and Ting Xu
Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how individuals’ job search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that job seekers shifted their searches toward more established firms and away from early-stage startups, even...
View Details
Keywords:
Startup Labor Market;
Flight To Safety;
COVID-19;
Recession;
Business Startups;
Human Capital;
Business Cycles;
Health Pandemics
Bernstein, Shai, Richard Townsend, and Ting Xu. "Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-045, September 2020. (Revised March 2022.)
- September 2, 2020
- Article
What Really Prevents Companies from Thriving in a Recession
By: Ranjay Gulati and Mark Wiedman
Even in the best of times, many companies fail to fund and staff new opportunities. As decades of research have shown, leaders fear threats to their status and power and so become attached to existing businesses and budgets, regarding them as entitlements and as a...
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Gulati, Ranjay, and Mark Wiedman. "What Really Prevents Companies from Thriving in a Recession." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (September 2, 2020).
- 2023
- Working Paper
How Resilient Is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting
By: Sabrina T. Howell, Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda and Richard Townsend
Despite theoretical predictions to the contrary, corporate innovation is strongly pro-cyclical. In this paper, we compare innovation in the economy as a whole to that of firms backed by venture capital (VC), a source of capital associated with the most impactful young...
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Keywords:
Recessions;
Venture Capital;
Innovation and Invention;
Patents;
Business Cycles;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
Howell, Sabrina T., Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda, and Richard Townsend. "How Resilient Is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-115, May 2020. (Revised July 2023.)
- 2019
- Book
Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream: How Technology Is Transforming Lending and Shaping a New Era of Small Business Opportunity
By: Karen G. Mills
Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream describes the needs of small businesses for capital and demonstrates how technology—novel data sources, artificial intelligence, machine learning—will transform the small business lending market. This market has been...
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Keywords:
Fintech;
Big Data;
Data;
Technology;
Artificial Intelligence;
Great Recession;
Regulation;
Innovation;
Banks;
Lending;
Loans;
Access To Capital;
American Dream;
Community Banking;
Small Business Administration;
Entrepreneur;
Government;
Public Policy;
API;
Policy Making;
Small Business;
Financing and Loans;
Technological Innovation;
Financial Crisis;
Banks and Banking;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Policy;
AI and Machine Learning;
Analytics and Data Science;
United States
Mills, Karen G. Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream: How Technology Is Transforming Lending and Shaping a New Era of Small Business Opportunity. Palgrave Macmillan, 2019.
- 2018
- Book
A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility
By: Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A...
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Keywords:
Financial Fragility;
Economic Risk;
Investor Behavior;
Behavioral Economics;
Financial Crisis;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Financial Markets;
Investment;
Values and Beliefs;
United States
Gennaioli, Nicola, and Andrei Shleifer. A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility. Princeton University Press, 2018.
- July 2018 (Revised January 2019)
- Teaching Note
MC Tool
By: Richard S. Ruback, Royce Yudkoff and Ahron Rosenfeld
Sean Witty and Jason Premo acquired MC Tool, a machine shop located in South Carolina in 2007 with the intent to transform it into a precision manufacturer. Witty and Premo were able to more than double revenue to $6 million in their first year of managing MC by...
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- June 2018
- Case
Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt
By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
In April 2018, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was again in Washington to petition Donald Trump. After years of rapid, export-led growth, Japan had slumped into recession in 1991 and never really recovered. For the past 27 years, its economy has grown at 1.1% annually,...
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Keywords:
Deflation;
Debt;
Country Analysis;
Monetary Expansion;
Population Growth;
Inflation and Deflation;
Borrowing and Debt;
Economy;
Energy;
National Security;
Japan
Vietor, Richard H.K., and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason. "Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt." Harvard Business School Case 718-063, June 2018.