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      • Faculty Publications  (92)

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      • November 10, 2022
      • Article

      5 Ways Startups Can Prepare for a Recession

      By: Lou Shipley
      Startups face unique challenges during economic downturns. They typically aren’t yet profitable and so are reliant on outside funding—and therefore are especially exposed when macroeconomic conditions change. To make it through a recession, startup CEOs should hit the...  View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Organizational Culture; Sales; Customer Focus and Relationships; Decisions; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Crisis; Employee Relationship Management; Business Startups; Credit
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      Shipley, Lou. "5 Ways Startups Can Prepare for a Recession." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (November 10, 2022).
      • July 28, 2022
      • Article

      How to Build a Life: How to Be Happy in a Recession

      By: Arthur C. Brooks
      Keywords: Happiness; Financial Crisis
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      Brooks, Arthur C. "How to Build a Life: How to Be Happy in a Recession." The Atlantic (July 28, 2022).
      • 2022
      • Chapter

      Lessons Learned from Support to Business during COVID-19

      By: Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Benjamin Iverson and Adi Sunderam
      The authors survey the new federal subsidies and loans provided to businesses in the first year of the pandemic—including the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program, and aid targeted at specific industries such as airlines...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Small Business; Government Legislation; Policy
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      Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, Benjamin Iverson, and Adi Sunderam. "Lessons Learned from Support to Business during COVID-19." Chap. 4 in Recession Remedies: Lessons Learned from the U.S. Economic Policy Response to COVID-19, edited by Wendy Edelberg, Louise Sheiner, and David Wessel, 123–162. Brookings Institution Press, 2022.
      • October 2021 (Revised November 2022)
      • Case

      The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats, or Leveling Down?

      By: Vincent Pons, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella and Elena Corsi
      Since 1978, Spain had struggled to control unemployment. The country’s labor law was protective of employees hired long-term and companies used temporary contracts as buffers. In 2012, amid economic recession and a 23.6% unemployment rate, a center-right government of...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Labor Market; Unemployment; Recession; Globalized Markets and Industries; Government Legislation; International Relations; Working Conditions; Employment; Labor Unions; Contracts; Social Issues; Public Opinion; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Spain; European Union
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      Pons, Vincent, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella, and Elena Corsi. "The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats, or Leveling Down?" Harvard Business School Case 722-008, October 2021. (Revised November 2022.)
      • July–August 2021
      • Article

      Lowering the Bar? External Conditions, Opportunity Costs, and High-Tech Startup Outcomes

      By: Annamaria Conti and Maria P. Roche
      We assess the heterogeneous impact of economic downturns on individuals’ decisions to bring high-technology ideas to the market in the form of new ventures. We thereby examine how worsening labor market conditions influence individuals’ opportunity costs of starting...  View Details
      Keywords: Necessity Entrepreneurship; Economic Conditions; Recessions; High-tech Startups; Opportunity Costs; Entrepreneurship; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Business Startups; Information Technology; Performance; Labor
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      Conti, Annamaria, and Maria P. Roche. "Lowering the Bar? External Conditions, Opportunity Costs, and High-Tech Startup Outcomes." Organization Science 32, no. 4 (July–August 2021): 965–986.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Nonbank Lending and Credit Cyclicality

      By: Quirin Fleckenstein, Manasa Gopal, German Gutierrez and Sebastian Hillenbrand
      We document three facts about nonbank lending in the syndicated loan market. First, nonbank lending is more than twice as cyclical as bank lending. Second, declines in nonbank lending explain most of the declines in syndicated lending during the Great Recession and...  View Details
      Keywords: Nonbank Lending; Credit Cycles; CLO; Mutual Funds; Leveraged Lending; COVID-19; Great Migration; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financing and Loans; Business Cycles
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      Fleckenstein, Quirin, Manasa Gopal, German Gutierrez, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Nonbank Lending and Credit Cyclicality." Working Paper, June 2021.
      • February 2021
      • Article

      Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession

      By: S. Bernstein, T. McQuade and R. Townsend
      We investigate how the deterioration of household balance sheets affects worker productivity, and, in turn, economic downturns. Specifically, we compare the output of innovative workers who experienced differential declines in housing wealth during the financial crisis...  View Details
      Keywords: Great Recession; Household; Financial Condition; System Shocks; Employees; Performance Productivity
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      Bernstein, S., T. McQuade, and R. Townsend. "Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession." Journal of Finance 76, no. 1 (February 2021): 57–111.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times

      By: Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
      What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? We present a model of delegation within the firm to show that the effect is ambiguous. The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information...  View Details
      Keywords: Decentralization; Growth; Turbulence; Great Recession; Organizational Design; System Shocks; Economic Growth; Performance
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      Aghion, Philippe, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 13, no. 1 (January 2021): 133–169.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups

      By: Shai Bernstein, Richard Townsend and Ting Xu
      Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how individuals’ job search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that job seekers shifted their searches toward more established firms and away from early-stage startups, even...  View Details
      Keywords: Startup Labor Market; Flight To Safety; COVID-19; Recession; Business Startups; Human Capital; Business Cycles; Health Pandemics
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      Bernstein, Shai, Richard Townsend, and Ting Xu. "Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-045, September 2020. (Revised March 2022.)
      • September 2, 2020
      • Article

      What Really Prevents Companies from Thriving in a Recession

      By: Ranjay Gulati and Mark Wiedman
      Even in the best of times, many companies fail to fund and staff new opportunities. As decades of research have shown, leaders fear threats to their status and power and so become attached to existing businesses and budgets, regarding them as entitlements and as a...  View Details
      Keywords: Recessions; Resource Allocation; Budgets and Budgeting
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      Gulati, Ranjay, and Mark Wiedman. "What Really Prevents Companies from Thriving in a Recession." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (September 2, 2020).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      How Resilient Is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting

      By: Sabrina T. Howell, Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda and Richard Townsend
      By comparing patenting among VC-backed firms to the universe of U.S. patents over the period 1976–2019, we document that while patents filed by VC-backed firms are of significantly higher quality and economic importance than the average patent, VC-backed innovation is...  View Details
      Keywords: Recessions; Venture Capital; Innovation and Invention; Patents; Business Cycles; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Howell, Sabrina T., Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda, and Richard Townsend. "How Resilient Is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-115, May 2020. (Revised January 2021.)
      • October 2019
      • Article

      Partial Deregulation and Competition: Effects on Risky Mortgage Origination

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Sanket Korgaonkar
      We exploit the OCC's preemption of national banks from state laws against predatory lending as a quasi-experiment to study the effect of deregulation and its interaction with competition on the supply of complex mortgages. Following the preemption ruling, national...  View Details
      Keywords: Great Recession; Subprime; Complex Mortgages; Credit Supply; Household Debt; Preemption Rule; Competition; Mortgages; Government Legislation; Credit; Financial Crisis
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, and Sanket Korgaonkar. "Partial Deregulation and Competition: Effects on Risky Mortgage Origination." Management Science 65, no. 10 (October 2019).
      • 2019
      • Book

      Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream: How Technology Is Transforming Lending and Shaping a New Era of Small Business Opportunity

      By: Karen G. Mills
      Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream describes the needs of small businesses for capital and demonstrates how technology—novel data sources, artificial intelligence, machine learning—will transform the small business lending market. This market has been...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Big Data; Data; Technology; Artificial Intelligence; Great Recession; Regulation; Innovation; Banks; Lending; Loans; Access To Capital; American Dream; Community Banking; Small Business Administration; Entrepreneur; Government; Public Policy; API; Policy Making; Small Business; Financing and Loans; Technological Innovation; Financial Crisis; Banks and Banking; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; United States
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      Mills, Karen G. Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream: How Technology Is Transforming Lending and Shaping a New Era of Small Business Opportunity. Palgrave Macmillan, 2019.
      • 2018
      • Book

      A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility

      By: Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Fragility; Economic Risk; Investor Behavior; Behavioral Economics; Financial Crisis; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Investment; Values and Beliefs; United States
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      Gennaioli, Nicola, and Andrei Shleifer. A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility. Princeton University Press, 2018.
      • July 2018 (Revised January 2019)
      • Teaching Note

      MC Tool

      By: Richard S. Ruback, Royce Yudkoff and Ahron Rosenfeld
      Sean Witty and Jason Premo acquired MC Tool, a machine shop located in South Carolina in 2007 with the intent to transform it into a precision manufacturer. Witty and Premo were able to more than double revenue to $6 million in their first year of managing MC by...  View Details
      Keywords: Small & Medium-sized Enterprises; Small Business; Production; Transformation; Problems and Challenges; Financial Condition; Business Strategy; Manufacturing Industry; United States
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      Ruback, Richard S., Royce Yudkoff, and Ahron Rosenfeld. "MC Tool." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 219-004, July 2018. (Revised January 2019.)
      • June 2018
      • Case

      Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt

      By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
      In April 2018, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was again in Washington to petition Donald Trump. After years of rapid, export-led growth, Japan had slumped into recession in 1991 and never really recovered. For the past 27 years, its economy has grown at 1.1% annually,...  View Details
      Keywords: Deflation; Debt; Country Analysis; Monetary Expansion; Population Growth; Inflation and Deflation; Borrowing and Debt; Economy; Energy; National Security; Japan
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      Vietor, Richard H.K., and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason. "Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt." Harvard Business School Case 718-063, June 2018.
      • May 2018 (Revised January 2019)
      • Teaching Note

      Lind Equipment

      By: Richard S. Ruback, Royce Yudkoff and Ahron Rosenfeld
      Teaching Note for HBS No. 212-012. Lind Equipment, a Canadian manufacturer and distributor of industrial electrical safety equipment, was purchased in December 2007 by Brian Astl (HBS 2006) and Sean Van Doorselaer. Lind’s performance was negatively impacted by the...  View Details
      Keywords: Recession; Seller Debt; Equity; Financial Condition; Borrowing and Debt; Capital; Revenue; Financing and Loans; Financial Strategy; Financial Management; Acquisition; Financial Crisis; Currency Exchange Rate; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Manufacturing Industry; Industrial Products Industry
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      Ruback, Richard S., Royce Yudkoff, and Ahron Rosenfeld. "Lind Equipment." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 218-119, May 2018. (Revised January 2019.)
      • Article

      How Did the Great Recession Affect Charitable Giving?

      By: Arthur C. Brooks
      A great deal of research has studied the effects of income and tax changes on charitable giving. However, little work has focused on how these relationships were affected by the Great Recession. This article estimates the tax and income effects using the 2009 Panel...  View Details
      Keywords: Charitable Giving; Great Recession; Philanthropy; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Financial Crisis; Taxation; Policy
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      Brooks, Arthur C. "How Did the Great Recession Affect Charitable Giving?" Public Finance Review 46, no. 5 (September 2018): 715–742.
      • November 2017
      • Article

      Credit-Induced Boom and Bust

      By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani
      Can a credit expansion induce a boom and bust in house prices and real economic activity? This paper exploits the federal preemption of national banks in 2004 from local laws against predatory lending to gauge the effect of the supply of credit on the real economy....  View Details
      Keywords: Great Recession; Subprime; Credit Supply; Credit Expansion; Household Leverage; Household Debt; Preemption Rule; Mortgages; Laws and Statutes; Credit; Household; Borrowing and Debt; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Di Maggio, Marco, and Amir Kermani. "Credit-Induced Boom and Bust." Review of Financial Studies 30, no. 11 (November 2017): 3711–3758. (Lead article and Editor's choice Winner of the 2018 RFS Rising Scholar Award.)
      • September 2016
      • Case

      Truly Human Leadership at Barry-Wehmiller

      By: Dylan Minor and Jan Rivkin
      The chief executive of Barry-Wehmiller, a large maker of industrial equipment, has resolved to run the company via “truly human leadership” in which “success is measured by the way we touch the lives of people.” With unusual people practices and a distinctive strategy,...  View Details
      Keywords: Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Values and Beliefs; Organizational Culture; Employees; Business Strategy; Manufacturing Industry
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      Minor, Dylan, and Jan Rivkin. "Truly Human Leadership at Barry-Wehmiller." Harvard Business School Case 717-420, September 2016.
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