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    • All HBS Web  (828)
      • Faculty Publications  (72)

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      • December 2021
      • Article

      Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

      By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
      A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit...  View Details
      Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
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      Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
      • August 2021
      • Article

      Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds

      By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen and Umit Gurun
      We provide evidence that bond fund managers misclassify their holdings, and that these misclassifications have a real and significant impact on investor capital flows. In particular, many funds report more investment grade assets than are actually held in their...  View Details
      Keywords: Mutual Funds; Economics; Finance; Measurement and Metrics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry
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      Chen, Huaizhi, Lauren Cohen, and Umit Gurun. "Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds." Journal of Finance 76, no. 4 (August 2021): 1699–1730. (Winner of the Best Paper Prize at the University of Cambridge Consortium on Asset Management, 2020; Winner of the Financial Management Association Best Paper Prize in Quantitative Investments, 2020.)
      • June 2021
      • Case

      Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment

      By: Luis M. Viceira, Emily R. McComb and Dean Xu
      This case examines modern endowment investment management through the lens of a leadership transition between Chief Investment Officers (CIOs). In March 2021, Paula Volent is about to step down as the CIO of the endowment of Bowdoin College after twenty-one years, and...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Banking; Growth Management; Investment Return; Capital Markets; Interest Rates; Competition; Cost Management; Risk Management; Financial Liquidity; Performance Evaluation
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      Viceira, Luis M., Emily R. McComb, and Dean Xu. "Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment." Harvard Business School Case 221-101, June 2021.
      • 2021
      • Article

      Does Fair Ranking Improve Minority Outcomes? Understanding the Interplay of Human and Algorithmic Biases in Online Hiring

      By: Tom Sühr, Sophie Hilgard and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      Ranking algorithms are being widely employed in various online hiring platforms including LinkedIn, TaskRabbit, and Fiverr. Prior research has demonstrated that ranking algorithms employed by these platforms are prone to a variety of undesirable biases, leading to the...  View Details
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      Sühr, Tom, Sophie Hilgard, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Does Fair Ranking Improve Minority Outcomes? Understanding the Interplay of Human and Algorithmic Biases in Online Hiring." Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society 4th (2021).
      • October 2020
      • Case

      HOPE and Transformational Lending: Netflix Invests in Black Led Banks

      By: John D. Macomber and Janice Broome Brooks
      Following the killing of George Floyd on Memorial Day in 2020, the large US corporation Netflix elected to make a "transformational deposit" of $10 million into Hope Credit Union (HCU), a small Black led community development finance institution (CDFI) based in...  View Details
      Keywords: Banking; Rural Entrepreneurship; Economic Development; Black Entrepreneurs; Economic Growth; Credit; Banks and Banking; Entrepreneurship; Rural Scope; Development Economics; Race; Investment; Decision Making; Banking Industry
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      Macomber, John D., and Janice Broome Brooks. "HOPE and Transformational Lending: Netflix Invests in Black Led Banks." Harvard Business School Case 221-030, October 2020.
      • September–October 2020
      • Article

      Social-Impact Efforts That Create Real Value

      By: George Serafeim
      Until the mid-2010s few investors paid attention to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data—information about companies’ carbon footprints, labor policies, board makeup, and so forth. Today the data is widely used by investors. How can organizations create...  View Details
      Keywords: Sustainability; Sustainability Management; ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG Disclosure; ESG Disclosure Metrics; ESG Ratings; ESG Reporting; Social Impact; Impact Measurement; Social Innovation; Purpose; Corporate Purpose; Corporate Social Responsibility; Strategy; Social Enterprise; Society; Accounting; Investment; Environmental Sustainability; Climate Change; Corporate Strategy; Mission and Purpose; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Financial Services Industry; Chemical Industry; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; North America; Europe; Japan; Australia
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      Serafeim, George. "Social-Impact Efforts That Create Real Value." Harvard Business Review 98, no. 5 (September–October 2020): 38–48.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
      We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

      By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,...  View Details
      Keywords: Consumption-based Habit Formation; Consumption Euler Equation; Time-varying Risk Premia; Inflation Dynamics; Bond-stock Correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics
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      Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 8 (August 2020): 3148–3185.
      • May 2020
      • Article

      How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Christopher Palmer
      We document the transmission of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve to the real economy using rich borrower-linked mortgage-market data and an identification strategy based on mortgage market segmentation. We find that central bank QE1 MBS purchases...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; MBS; Quantitative Easing; LSAP; Refinancing; Deleveraging; HARP; GSE; Central Banking; Global Range; Financing and Loans; Credit; United States
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, and Christopher Palmer. "How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel." Review of Economic Studies 87, no. 3 (May 2020): 1498–1528.
      • November 9, 2019
      • Article

      Effect of Revealing Authors' Conflicts of Interests in Peer Review: Randomized Controlled Trial

      By: Leslie K. John, George Loewenstein, Andrew Marder and Michael Callaham
      Objective: To assess the impact of disclosing authors’ conflict of interest declarations to peer reviewers at a medical journal.
      Design: Randomised controlled trial.

      Setting: The study was conducted within the manuscript review process at the...  View Details
      Keywords: Conflicts Of Interest; Peer Review; Randomized Controlled Trial; Scientific Publication; Conflict of Interests; Journals and Magazines; Science
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      John, Leslie K., George Loewenstein, Andrew Marder, and Michael Callaham. "Effect of Revealing Authors' Conflicts of Interests in Peer Review: Randomized Controlled Trial." BMJ: British Medical Journal 367, no. 8221 (November 9, 2019).
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Real Exchange Rate Behavior: New Evidence from Matched Retail Goods

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Brent Neiman and Roberto Rigobon
      We use a dataset containing daily prices for thousands of matched retail products in nine countries to study tradable-goods real exchange rates. Prices were collected from the websites of large multi-channel retailers and then carefully matched into narrowly-defined...  View Details
      Keywords: Purchasing Power Parity; Online Prices; Real Exchange Rate; Macroeconomics; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; Internet and the Web
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Brent Neiman, and Roberto Rigobon. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: New Evidence from Matched Retail Goods." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-040, January 2019.
      • 2019
      • Article

      An Empirical Study of Rich Subgroup Fairness for Machine Learning

      By: Michael J Kearns, Seth Neel, Aaron Leon Roth and Zhiwei Steven Wu
      Kearns et al. [2018] recently proposed a notion of rich subgroup fairness intended to bridge the gap between statistical and individual notions of fairness. Rich subgroup fairness picks a statistical fairness constraint (say, equalizing false positive rates across...  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Fairness; AI and Machine Learning
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      Kearns, Michael J., Seth Neel, Aaron Leon Roth, and Zhiwei Steven Wu. "An Empirical Study of Rich Subgroup Fairness for Machine Learning." Proceedings of the Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (2019): 100–109.
      • Article

      You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains

      By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
      Real exchange rate devaluations are typically seen as a viable development strategy, but the effectiveness of the approach may vary over time and across countries. This column explores this issue by focusing on the microeconomics of firm-level responses to exchange...  View Details
      Keywords: Manufacturing Performance; Real Exchange Rate; Global Value Chains; Economics; Production; Performance
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      Alfaro, Laura, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger, and Yanping Liu. "You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains." Vox, CEPR Policy Portal (October 2, 2018).
      • June 2018
      • Background Note

      Introduction to Life Settlements

      By: Alexander Braun, Lauren H. Cohen, Christopher J. Malloy and Jiahua Xu
      Life insurance is an asset owned by the majority of American adults (61%). Note that this 61% penetration rate is essentially at parity with home ownership (64%) and higher than that of 401(k) retirement account ownership (53%). Life settlements, or life insurance...  View Details
      Keywords: Insurance; Assets; Value; Markets; Investment Return
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      Braun, Alexander, Lauren H. Cohen, Christopher J. Malloy, and Jiahua Xu. "Introduction to Life Settlements." Harvard Business School Background Note 218-127, June 2018.
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Corporate Tax Cuts Increase Income Inequality

      By: Suresh Nallareddy, Ethan Rouen and Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato
      This paper studies the effects of corporate tax changes on income inequality. Using state corporate tax rate changes as a setting, we show that cutting state corporate tax rates leads to increases in income inequality. This result is robust to using regression and...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Ventures; Taxation; Income; Equality and Inequality; United States
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      Nallareddy, Suresh, Ethan Rouen, and Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato. "Corporate Tax Cuts Increase Income Inequality." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-101, May 2018.
      • Article

      Preventing Fairness Gerrymandering: Auditing and Learning for Subgroup Fairness

      By: Michael J Kearns, Seth Neel, Aaron Leon Roth and Zhiwei Steven Wu
      The most prevalent notions of fairness in machine learning are statistical definitions: they fix a small collection of pre-defined groups, and then ask for parity of some statistic of the classifier (like classification rate or false positive rate) across these groups....  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Algorithms; Fairness; Mathematical Methods
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      Kearns, Michael J., Seth Neel, Aaron Leon Roth, and Zhiwei Steven Wu. "Preventing Fairness Gerrymandering: Auditing and Learning for Subgroup Fairness." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 35th (2018).
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity

      By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
      We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001–2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'...  View Details
      Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Firm Level Data; Innovation; Productivity; Exporting; Importing; Credit Constraints; Currency Exchange Rate; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity
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      Alfaro, Laura, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger, and Yanping Liu. "The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-044, November 2017. (Revised April 2020.)
      • November 2017
      • Article

      Credit-Induced Boom and Bust

      By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani
      Can a credit expansion induce a boom and bust in house prices and real economic activity? This paper exploits the federal preemption of national banks in 2004 from local laws against predatory lending to gauge the effect of the supply of credit on the real economy....  View Details
      Keywords: Great Recession; Subprime; Credit Supply; Credit Expansion; Household Leverage; Household Debt; Preemption Rule; Mortgages; Laws and Statutes; Credit; Household; Borrowing and Debt; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Di Maggio, Marco, and Amir Kermani. "Credit-Induced Boom and Bust." Review of Financial Studies 30, no. 11 (November 2017): 3711–3758. (Lead article and Editor's choice Winner of the 2018 RFS Rising Scholar Award.)
      • 2017
      • Article

      Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

      By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
      The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management
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      Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
      • August 2016 (Revised October 2016)
      • Case

      Nirvana Vihar Rehabilitation Homes

      By: Shawn Cole, Andreas Rotenberg and Thomas van den Aarssen
      Kumar Builders (KUL) was finally nearing completion on the four luxury condominium towers that comprised the first phase of its bold vision for the redevelopment of more than 70 acres of prime real estate in downtown Pune, India. The Nirvana Hills development also...  View Details
      Keywords: Real Estate; Slum Redevelopment; Double Bottom Line; Economic Development; Partnerships; Partners and Partnerships; Development Economics; Urban Development; Business and Community Relations; Real Estate Industry; India
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      Cole, Shawn, Andreas Rotenberg, and Thomas van den Aarssen. "Nirvana Vihar Rehabilitation Homes." Harvard Business School Case 217-013, August 2016. (Revised October 2016.)
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