• July 2018 (Revised July 2018)
• Teaching Note

Argentina Power—Don’t Cry for Me Argentina

By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Sayiddah Fatima McCree

Teaching Note for HBS No. 218-041. This case concerns a complex potential energy infrastructure investment in Argentina by a global conglomerate shortly after Mauricio Macri (“Macri”) became President of Argentina in 2015. The central issues are (i) why was a country...  View Details

Keywords: Argentina; Argentine Exceptionalism; Infrastructure Finance; Investing; Finance; Inflation and Deflation; Government and Politics; Energy Generation; Infrastructure; Utilities Industry; Energy Industry; Financial Services Industry; Argentina; South America

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Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Sayiddah Fatima McCree. "Argentina Power—Don’t Cry for Me Argentina." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 219-010, July 2018. (Revised July 2018.)

• February 2018
• Case

Infrastructure in Nigeria: Unlocking Pension Fund Investments

By: John Macomber and Pippa Tubman Armerding

The so-called “infrastructure finance gap” was a problem in Nigeria as in many parts of the world. Infrastructure projects like power plants and dams were very large capital investments that could generate long-term consistent cash flows, but their financing and...  View Details

Keywords: Pension Fund Investing; Infrastucture; Power/energy; Credit Enhancement; Infrastructure; Project Finance; Investment Funds; Emerging Markets; Nigeria; Africa

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Macomber, John, and Pippa Tubman Armerding. "Infrastructure in Nigeria: Unlocking Pension Fund Investments." Harvard Business School Case 218-071, February 2018.

• 2019
• Working Paper

Do Banks Have an Edge?

By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford

Overall, no! We show that the level and time series variation in cash flows for most bank activities are well matched by capital market portfolios with similar interest rate and credit risk to what banks report to hold. Ignoring operating expenses, bank loans earn high...  View Details

Keywords: Banks; Market Efficiency; Bank Capital; Bank Debt; Capm; Banking; Bank Deposits; Bank Funding Advantage; Leverage; Maturity Transformation; Replicating Portfolio; Efficiency; Banks and Banking; Capital Markets; Performance Evaluation; Performance Efficiency; Banking Industry; United States

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Begenau, Juliane, and Erik Stafford. "Do Banks Have an Edge?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-060, January 2018. (Revised October 2019.)

• Article

Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment

By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane

We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor...  View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States

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Engle, Robert F., Guillaume Roussellet, and Emil N. Siriwardane. "Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment." Special Issue on Theoretical and Financial Econometrics: Essays in Honor of C. Gourieroux. Journal of Econometrics 201, no. 2 (December 2017): 333–347.

• October 22, 2012
• Article

Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging

By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Benjamin Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Rodney Ramcharan, Amit Seru and Vincent Yao

Exploiting variation in the timing of resets of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), we find that a sizable decline in mortgage payments (up to 50%) induces a significant increase in car purchases (up to 35%). This effect is attenuated by voluntary deleveraging. Borrowers...  View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Household Finance; Refinancing; Contract Rigidities; Debt Rigidity; Mpc; Deleveraging; Personal Finance; Household; Policy; Borrowing and Debt; Macroeconomics

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Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, Benjamin Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Rodney Ramcharan, Amit Seru, and Vincent Yao. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging." American Economic Review 107, no. 11 (November 2017): 3550–3588. (Note: this is a combined version of working papers Monetary Policy Pass-Through: Household Consumption and Voluntary Deleveraging by M. Di Maggio, A. Kermani and R. Ramcharan previously Revise & Resubmit at American Economic Review and Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy by B. Keys, T. Piskorski, A. Seru, and V. Yao previously Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Political Economy.)

• 2017
• Article

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...  View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management

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Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.

• 2019
• Working Paper

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and...  View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Stocks; Valuation; Economy; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics

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Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-040, November 2016. (Revised September 2019. Conditionally accepted at Quarterly Journal of Economics. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26290, September 2019)

• August 2016
• Teaching Note

The Role of Real Estate in Endowment Portfolios: The Case of Christ Church College

By: Arthur I. Segel and Alexander W. Schultz

The case centers on Christ Church’s Treasurer, James Lawrie, who is contemplating his options for investing a portion of the College’s endowment in real estate. Approximately 1/3 of the total $690 million endowment was allocated towards real estate, much higher than...  View Details

Keywords: Portfolio Allocation; Oxford; England; Real Estate; University Endowment; Higher Education; Investment Portfolio; Property; Corporate Finance; Financial Services Industry; England

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Segel, Arthur I., and Alexander W. Schultz. "The Role of Real Estate in Endowment Portfolios: The Case of Christ Church College." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 217-009, August 2016.

• June 2016 (Revised February 2017)
• Case

The Role of Real Estate in Endowment Portfolios: The Case of Christ Church, Oxford

By: David Chambers, Elroy Dimson, Arthur I Segel and Eva Steiner

The case centers on Christ Church's Treasurer, James Lawrie, who is contemplating his options for investing a portion of the College's endowment in real estate. Approximately 1/3 of the total $690 million endowment was allocated towards real estate, much higher than...  View Details

Keywords: Real Estate; Endowment Management; Endowments; United Kingdom; Oxford; Portfolio Allocation; Higher Education; Investment Portfolio; Property; Corporate Finance; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom

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Chambers, David, Elroy Dimson, Arthur I Segel, and Eva Steiner. "The Role of Real Estate in Endowment Portfolios: The Case of Christ Church, Oxford." Harvard Business School Case 216-086, June 2016. (Revised February 2017.)

• March 2016
• Article

An Analysis of Firms' Self-reported Anticorruption Efforts

By: Paul M. Healy and George Serafeim

We use Transparency International's ratings of self-reported anticorruption efforts for 480 corporations to analyze factors underlying the ratings. Our tests examine whether these forms of disclosure reflect firms' real efforts to combat corruption or are cheap talk....  View Details

Keywords: Corruption; Corporate Performance; Growth; Disclosure; Disclosure Strategy; Sustainability; Crime and Corruption; Corporate Disclosure; Performance; Sales

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Healy, Paul M., and George Serafeim. "An Analysis of Firms' Self-reported Anticorruption Efforts." Accounting Review 91, no. 2 (March 2016): 489–511.

• March–April 2015
• Article

The Almighty Ruble

By: Debora L. Spar

At 1 AM Moscow time on December 16, Russia's central bank announced a massive hike in the country's interest rate, from 10.5% to 17%. It's not clear how Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his colleagues could realistically have expected to achieve anything by hiking the...  View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Economy; Policy; Currency; Interest Rates; Sovereign Finance; Russia

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Spar, Debora L. "The Almighty Ruble." Foreign Policy 211 (March–April 2015).

• August 2014
• Article

Mortgage Convexity

By: Samuel G. Hanson

Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS...  View Details

Keywords: Mortgages; Interest Rates; Volatility

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Hanson, Samuel G. "Mortgage Convexity." Journal of Financial Economics 113, no. 2 (August 2014): 270–299. (Internet Appendix Here.)

• August 2013 (Revised November 2015)
• Case

Prudential Financial - General Motors Pension Risk Transfer: Back to the Future?

By: Luis M. Viceira and Emily A. Chien

In November 2012, Prudential Financial and General Motors closed on a $25.1B pension risk transfer (PRT) transaction, the largest of its kind to date by an order of magnitude both in the U.S. market and globally. In exchange for an in-kind transfer of $25.1B in...  View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Asset Management; Insurance; Retirement; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry

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Viceira, Luis M., and Emily A. Chien. "Prudential Financial - General Motors Pension Risk Transfer: Back to the Future?" Harvard Business School Case 213-126, August 2013. (Revised November 2015.)