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Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (36)

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    • All HBS Web  (162)
      • Faculty Publications  (36)

      Rational Expectations Remove Rational Expectations →

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges...  View Details
      Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30356, August 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations

      By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
      We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and...  View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Stocks
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      McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, January 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Heterogeneity of Gain-Loss Attitudes and Expectations-Based Reference Points

      By: Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Thomas Graeber, Alex Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
      Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes, and explores its implications for identifying models of the reference point. In two experimental settings we measure gain-loss...  View Details
      Keywords: Reference-dependent Preferences; Rational Expectations; Personal Equilibrium; Endowment Effect; Expectations-based Reference Points
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      Campos-Mercade, Pol, Lorenz Goette, Thomas Graeber, Alex Kellogg, and Charles Sprenger. "Heterogeneity of Gain-Loss Attitudes and Expectations-Based Reference Points." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • April 2020
      • Background Note

      U.S. Food Retail During the Pandemic: March 2020

      By: José B. Alvarez and Natalie Kindred
      This note, written in late March 2020 and mainly U.S. focused, looks at the unfolding impact of the coronavirus pandemic on food retailers and their suppliers. It allows student to consider the challenges facing food retail executives as they navigate urgent supply...  View Details
      Keywords: Coronavirus Pandemic; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Food; Supply Chain; Consumer Behavior; Demand and Consumers; Trade; Crisis Management; Health Pandemics; Food and Beverage Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Retail Industry; United States
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      Alvarez, José B., and Natalie Kindred. "U.S. Food Retail During the Pandemic: March 2020." Harvard Business School Background Note 520-098, April 2020.
      • July 2017
      • Article

      Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
      Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Survey Experiment; Rational Inattention; Supermarkets; Macroeconomics; Household; Inflation and Deflation; Policy
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 3 (July 2017): 1–35.
      • Article

      Wisdom or Madness? Comparing Crowds with Expert Evaluation in Funding the Arts

      By: Ethan Mollick and Ramana Nanda
      In fields as diverse as technology entrepreneurship and the arts, crowds of interested stakeholders are increasingly responsible for deciding which innovations to fund, a privilege that was previously reserved for a few experts, such as venture capitalists and...  View Details
      Keywords: Crowdfunding; Arts; Decision Choices and Conditions; Entrepreneurship; Investment; Fine Arts Industry; Technology Industry
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      Mollick, Ethan, and Ramana Nanda. "Wisdom or Madness? Comparing Crowds with Expert Evaluation in Funding the Arts." Management Science 62, no. 6 (June 2016): 1533–1553.
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Wisdom or Madness? Comparing Crowds with Expert Evaluation in Funding the Arts

      By: Ethan Mollick and Ramana Nanda
      In fields as diverse as technology entrepreneurship and the arts, crowds of interested stakeholders are increasingly responsible for deciding which innovations to fund, a privilege that was previously reserved for a few experts, such as venture capitalists and...  View Details
      Keywords: Arts; Decision Choices and Conditions; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving
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      Mollick, Ethan, and Ramana Nanda. "Wisdom or Madness? Comparing Crowds with Expert Evaluation in Funding the Arts." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-116, May 2014. (Revised January 2015, August 2015.)
      • 2014
      • Article

      Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
      We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the...  View Details
      Keywords: Performance Expectations; Investment Return
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • 2011
      • Article

      'Deprival Value' vs. 'Fair Value' Measurement for Contract Liabilities: How to Resolve the 'Revenue Recognition' Conundrum

      By: Joanne Horton, Richard H. Macve and George Serafeim
      Revenue recognition and measurement principles can conflict with liability recognition and measurement principles. We explore here under different market conditions when the two measurement approaches coincide and when they conflict. We show that where entities expect...  View Details
      Keywords: Fair Value; Deprival Value; Contract Liabilities; Fair Value Accounting; Measurement and Metrics; Profit; Revenue Recognition; Assets; Performance Evaluation; Contracts
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      Horton, Joanne, Richard H. Macve, and George Serafeim. "'Deprival Value' vs. 'Fair Value' Measurement for Contract Liabilities: How to Resolve the 'Revenue Recognition' Conundrum." Accounting and Business Research 41, no. 5 (2011): 491–514.
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      Naiveté and Cynicism in Negotiations and Other Competitive Contexts

      By: Chia-Jung Tsay, Lisa L. Shu and Max Bazerman
      A wealth of literature documents how the common failure to think about the self-interests of others contributes to suboptimal outcomes. Yet sometimes, an excess of cynicism appears to lead us to over-think the actions of others and make negative attributions about...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Negotiation; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perspective; Trust; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage
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      Tsay, Chia-Jung, Lisa L. Shu, and Max Bazerman. "Naiveté and Cynicism in Negotiations and Other Competitive Contexts." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-066, January 2011. (Revised May 2011.)
      • Article

      Temporal View of the Costs and Benefits of Self-Deception

      By: Zoe Chance, Michael I. Norton, Francesca Gino and Dan Ariely
      Researchers have documented many cases in which individuals rationalize their regrettable actions. Four experiments examine situations in which people go beyond merely explaining away their misconduct to actively deceiving themselves. We find that those who exploit...  View Details
      Keywords: Hindsight Bias; Lying; Motivated Reasoning; Self-enhancement; Social Psychology; Perception; Performance Expectations
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      Chance, Zoe, Michael I. Norton, Francesca Gino, and Dan Ariely. "Temporal View of the Costs and Benefits of Self-Deception." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. S3 (September 13, 2011): 15655–15659.
      • Article

      Values, Purpose, Meaning, and Expectations: Why Culture and Context Matter

      By: Rosabeth M. Kanter
      The "rational person" standard, based on assumptions of economic self-interest, has long prevailed in legal reasoning. But understanding of decision making, behavioral choices, and possibilities for action must be enlarged to include a variety of factors that give...  View Details
      Keywords: Standards; Interests; Decision Making; Behavior; Value; Groups and Teams; Performance Expectations; Organizational Culture; Leadership; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives
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      Kanter, Rosabeth M. "Values, Purpose, Meaning, and Expectations: Why Culture and Context Matter." Alabama Law Review 62, no. 5 (2011).
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Cognitive Barriers to Environmental Action: Problems and Solutions

      By: Lisa L. Shu and Max Bazerman
      We explore interventions at the individual level and focus on recognized cognitive barriers from behavioral decision-making literature. In particular, we highlight three cognitive barriers that impede sound individual decision making that have particular relevance to...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Consumer Behavior; Environmental Sustainability; Cognition and Thinking; Prejudice and Bias
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      Shu, Lisa L., and Max Bazerman. "Cognitive Barriers to Environmental Action: Problems and Solutions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-046, November 2010.
      • February 2008 (Revised October 2010)
      • Case

      Mellon Financial and The Bank of New York

      By: Carliss Y. Baldwin and Ryan Taliaferro
      Bob Kelly, the new CEO of Mellon Financial, is considering the terms of a proposed "merger of equals" with The Bank of New York, just before the final Board meeting to approve the deal. The combination offers a great strategic fit, and the expected synergies are large....  View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Equity; Banks and Banking; Business and Shareholder Relations; Valuation; Banking Industry; Pittsburgh
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      Baldwin, Carliss Y., and Ryan Taliaferro. "Mellon Financial and The Bank of New York." Harvard Business School Case 208-129, February 2008. (Revised October 2010.)
      • September 2004
      • Article

      Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      Rational agents with differing priors tend to be overoptimistic about their chances of success. In particular, an agent who tries to choose the action that is most likely to succeed, is more likely to choose an action of which he overestimated, rather than...  View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Decision Choices and Conditions; Performance Expectations; Outcome or Result; Opportunities; Risk and Uncertainty; Failure; Success; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Personal Characteristics; Values and Beliefs; Ethics
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)." American Economic Review 94, no. 4 (September 2004): 1141–1151.
      • 2002
      • Book

      Searching for a Corporate Savior: The Irrational Quest for Charismatic CEOs

      By: Rakesh Khurana
      Corporate CEOs are headline news. Stock prices rise and fall at word of their hiring and firing. Business media debate their merits and defects as if individual leaders determined the health of the economy. Yet we know surprisingly little about how CEOs are selected...  View Details
      Keywords: Managerial Roles; Selection and Staffing; Personal Characteristics; Experience and Expertise; Investment Activism; Corporate Strategy
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      Khurana, Rakesh. Searching for a Corporate Savior: The Irrational Quest for Charismatic CEOs. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002.
      • 1996
      • Thesis

      Limits on Interest Rate Rules in Macroeconomic Models Governed by Price Stickiness and Rational Expectations

      By: William R. Kerr
      Keywords: Interest Rates; Macroeconomics; Mathematical Methods
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      Kerr, William R. "Limits on Interest Rate Rules in Macroeconomic Models Governed by Price Stickiness and Rational Expectations." Thesis, University of Virginia, 1996.
      • September 1992
      • Article

      Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation

      By: Kenneth Froot, David S. Scharfstein and Jeremy Stein
      Keywords: Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing; Behavioral Finance
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      Froot, Kenneth, David S. Scharfstein, and Jeremy Stein. "Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation." Journal of Finance 47, no. 4 (September 1992): 1461–1484. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 3250, February 1990.)
      • 1992
      • Chapter

      Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market." In International Business Reader, edited by D. Duta. London: Oxford University Press, 1992. (Revised from IMF Working Paper No. 90/43 and NBER Working Paper No. 3470, October 1990.)
      • 1992
      • Chapter

      The EMS, the EMU and the Transition to a Common Currency

      By: K. A. Froot and K. Rogoff
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Policy
      Citation
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      Froot, K. A., and K. Rogoff. "The EMS, the EMU and the Transition to a Common Currency." In Macroeconomics Annual 1991, edited by O. Blanchard and S. Fischer, 269–327. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1992. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 3684, January 1992.)
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