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- January 2025
- Technical Note
AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix
By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart
This technical note introduces the confusion matrix as a foundational tool in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) for assessing the performance of classification models, focusing on their reliability for decision-making. A confusion matrix... View Details
- January 2025
- Case
Untapped Global: Financing Africa’s Missing Middle
By: Raymond Kluender and Emanuele Colonnelli
In November 2024, Jim Chu, founder and CEO of Untapped Global, faced mounting internal tensions over the company’s strategic direction. Untapped had developed a data-driven revenue-based financing (RBF) model to address the “missing middle” problem—the $5.2 trillion... View Details
Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Social Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Working Capital; Private Equity; Financial Strategy; Microfinance; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Profit Sharing; Revenue; Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Growth; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Information Technology Industry; Technology Industry; Africa; Nigeria; South Africa; Kenya; Uganda; California; San Francisco
- January 2025
- Article
Automatic Enrollment with a 12% Default Contribution Rate
By: John Beshears, Ruofei Guo, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and James J. Choi
We study a retirement savings plan with a default contribution rate of 12% of income, which is much higher than previously studied defaults. Twenty-five percent of employees had not opted out of this default 12 months after hire; a literature review finds that the... View Details
Keywords: Retirement Savings; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; Automatic Enrollment; Retirement; Saving; Income; Decision Choices and Conditions
Beshears, John, Ruofei Guo, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, and James J. Choi. "Automatic Enrollment with a 12% Default Contribution Rate." Journal of Pension Economics & Finance 24, no. 1 (January 2025): 152–182. (20th Anniversary Special Issue.)
- December 5, 2024
- Article
A Consensus Definition of Creativity in Surgery: A Delphi Study Protocol
By: Alex Thabane, Tyler McKechnie, Phillip Staibano, Vikram Arora, Goran Calic, Jason W. Busse, Sameer Parpia and Mohit Bhandari
Introduction
Clear definitions are essential in science, particularly in the study of abstract phenomena like creativity. Due to its inherent complexity and domain-specific nature, the study of creativity has been complicated, as evidenced by the various... View Details
Clear definitions are essential in science, particularly in the study of abstract phenomena like creativity. Due to its inherent complexity and domain-specific nature, the study of creativity has been complicated, as evidenced by the various... View Details
Thabane, Alex, Tyler McKechnie, Phillip Staibano, Vikram Arora, Goran Calic, Jason W. Busse, Sameer Parpia, and Mohit Bhandari. "A Consensus Definition of Creativity in Surgery: A Delphi Study Protocol." PLoS ONE 19, no. 12 (December 5, 2024).
- December 2024
- Article
Public Attitudes on Performance for Algorithmic and Human Decision-Makers
By: Kirk Bansak and Elisabeth Paulson
This study explores public preferences for algorithmic and human decision-makers (DMs) in high-stakes contexts, how these preferences are shaped by performance metrics, and whether public evaluations of performance differ depending on the type of DM. Leveraging a... View Details
Bansak, Kirk, and Elisabeth Paulson. "Public Attitudes on Performance for Algorithmic and Human Decision-Makers." PNAS Nexus 3, no. 12 (December 2024).
- November 2024
- Article
Perceptions About Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details
Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 4 (November 2024): 2227–2278.
- November 2024
- Article
Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge
By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring... View Details
Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Consumer Behavior; Personal Finance; Product Positioning
Cavallo, Alberto, and Oleksiy Kryvtsov. "Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge." Journal of Monetary Economics 148 (November 2024).
- 2024
- Article
Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." Annual Review of Financial Economics 16 (2024): 115–151.
- Fall 2024
- Article
The Problem of Good Conduct Among Financial Advisers
By: Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru
Households in the United States often rely on financial advisers for investment and savings decisions, yet there is a widespread perception that many advisers are dishonest. This distrust is not unwarranted: approximately one in fifteen advisers has a history of... View Details
Egan, Mark, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru. "The Problem of Good Conduct Among Financial Advisers." Journal of Economic Perspectives 38, no. 4 (Fall 2024): 193–210.
- October 24, 2023
- Article
10 Beliefs That Get in the Way of Organizational Change
By: Frances X. Frei and Anne Morriss
In their new book, Move Fast and Fix Things, Frances Frei and Anne Morriss outline five strategies to help leaders tackle their hardest problems and quickly make change. Their final strategy is to execute your plan with a sense of urgency. They argue that most... View Details
Frei, Frances X., and Anne Morriss. "10 Beliefs That Get in the Way of Organizational Change." Harvard Business Review (website) (October 24, 2023).
- October 2024
- Case
Estímulo: Blended Finance in Brazil
By: Vikram S. Gandhi, James Barnett, Maxim Pike Harrell and Marina Osborn
In December 2022, Estímulo — a Brazilian impact investment fund supporting small businesses—found itself at a crossroads. The fund was established in 2020 to provide emergency relief through accessible credit and financial education. When low default rates from... View Details
- October 2024
- Article
Medicare Part D Protected-Class Policy Is Associated with Lower Drug Rebates
By: Pragya Kakani, Michael Anne Kyle, Amitabh Chandra and Luca Maini
Medicare Part D does not allow plans to exclude drugs in six protected classes from their formularies, which may limit plans’ ability to negotiate rebates and lead to higher spending. We estimated the association between protected-class status, US-level estimated... View Details
Keywords: Insurance; Health Care and Treatment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; United States
Kakani, Pragya, Michael Anne Kyle, Amitabh Chandra, and Luca Maini. "Medicare Part D Protected-Class Policy Is Associated with Lower Drug Rebates." Health Affairs 43, no. 10 (October 2024): 1420–1427.
- October 2024
- Article
Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship
By: Michael Ewens, Ramana Nanda and Christopher Stanton
We show theoretically that a critical determinant of the attractiveness of VC-backed entrepreneurship for high-earning potential founders is the expected time to develop a startup’s initial product. This is because founder-CEOs’ cash compensation increases... View Details
Ewens, Michael, Ramana Nanda, and Christopher Stanton. "Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship." Journal of Finance 79, no. 5 (October 2024): 3361–3405.
- October 2024
- Case
Southern California Industrial: Freezer Drive
In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, a Boston based real estate private equity firm was seeking to make their very first West Coast investments in hopes of establishing their presence in the strategic region. An exciting property suddenly became available on the... View Details
- September 24, 2024
- Article
4 Steps That Can Optimize Your Sales Process
By: Frank V. Cespedes, Scott Peterson and Daniel Weinfurter
Sales is a performance art where outcomes matter, so most advice here focuses on closing the sale. But a close is the result of actions and choices that occur earlier in the process: how much time and effort to spend on customer discovery (understanding what and to... View Details
Cespedes, Frank V., Scott Peterson, and Daniel Weinfurter. "4 Steps That Can Optimize Your Sales Process." Harvard Business Review (website) (September 24, 2024).
- September 20, 2024
- Article
It’s Time to Unbundle ESG
By: Aaron K. Chatterji and Michael W. Toffel
ESG is at an inflection point. It has come to represent a broad and inchoate aspiration for what business should be doing beyond maximizing shareholder value. With ESG advocates on the defensive, business leaders need a new roadmap to determine which factors to... View Details
Keywords: ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG Ratings; ESG Reporting; ESG Disclosure; Sustainability; Climate; Climate Finance; Climate Risk; Social Accounting; Investment; Governance; Safety; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Financial Services Industry
Chatterji, Aaron K., and Michael W. Toffel. "It’s Time to Unbundle ESG." Harvard Business Review (website) (September 20, 2024).
- 2024
- Working Paper
Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details
Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy." Working Paper, September 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Igniting Innovation: Evidence from PyTorch on Technology Control in Open Collaboration
By: Daniel Yue and Frank Nagle
Many companies offer free access to their technology to encourage outside addon
innovation, hoping to later profit by raising prices or harnessing the power of the crowd
while continuing to steer the direction of innovation. They can achieve this balance by
opening... View Details
Keywords: Technological Innovation; Power and Influence; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Corporate Governance
Yue, Daniel, and Frank Nagle. "Igniting Innovation: Evidence from PyTorch on Technology Control in Open Collaboration." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-013, September 2024.
- September 2024
- Case
Eat App: Building and Monetizing an End-to-End Dining Experience Solution
By: Elie Ofek and Ahmed Dahawy
Founded in 2015 in Bahrain, Eat App was an up-and-coming player in the global restaurant management software business. In early 2024, having shifted to a product-led growth strategy, the company’s co-founders faced a host of decisions that could greatly impact their... View Details
Keywords: Price; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Marketing; Negotiation Deal; Internet and the Web; Value Creation; Profit; Revenue; Applications and Software; Product; Food and Beverage Industry; Technology Industry; Bahrain; United Arab Emirates; Abu Dhabi; Dubai
Ofek, Elie, and Ahmed Dahawy. "Eat App: Building and Monetizing an End-to-End Dining Experience Solution." Harvard Business School Case 525-019, September 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Wade Test: Generative AI and CEO Communication
By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Bart S. Vanneste and Amirhossein Zohrehvand
Can generative artificial intelligence (AI) transform the role of the CEO by effectively automating CEO
communication? This study investigates whether AI can mimic a human CEO and whether employees’
perception of the communication’s source matter. In a field... View Details
Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Bart S. Vanneste, and Amirhossein Zohrehvand. "The Wade Test: Generative AI and CEO Communication." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-008, August 2024.