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      • Faculty Publications  (171)

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      • 2023
      • Article

      Association Between Regulatory Submission Characteristics and Recalls of Medical Devices Receiving 510(k) Clearance

      By: Alexander O. Everhart, Soumya Sen, Ariel D. Stern, Yi Zhu and Pinar Karaca-Mandic
      Importance: Most regulated medical devices enter the U.S. market via the 510(k) regulatory submission pathway, wherein manufacturers demonstrate that applicant devices are “substantially equivalent” to 1 or more “predicate” devices (legally marketed medical devices...  View Details
      Keywords: Recalls; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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      Everhart, Alexander O., Soumya Sen, Ariel D. Stern, Yi Zhu, and Pinar Karaca-Mandic. "Association Between Regulatory Submission Characteristics and Recalls of Medical Devices Receiving 510(k) Clearance." JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association 329, no. 2 (2023): 144–156.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Post-market Surveillance of Software Medical Devices: Evidence from Regulatory Data

      By: Alexander O. Everhart and Ariel D. Stern
      Medical devices increasingly include software components, which facilitate remote patient monitoring. The introduction of software into previously analog medical devices as well as innovation in software-driven devices may introduce new safety concerns—all the more so...  View Details
      Keywords: Technological Innovation; Safety; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Health Care and Treatment; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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      Everhart, Alexander O., and Ariel D. Stern. "Post-market Surveillance of Software Medical Devices: Evidence from Regulatory Data." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-035, November 2022.
      • December 2022
      • Article

      When and How Should Firms Differentiate? Quality and Advertising Decisions in a Duopoly

      By: Dominique Olié Lauga, Elie Ofek and Zsolt Katona
      A prominent hallmark of competitive interaction is the desire to differentiate from rivals. In this article, the authors examine under what conditions firms will differentiate through product quality versus advertising intensity. Firms select quality in a first stage,...  View Details
      Keywords: Competition; Advertising; Product Positioning
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      Lauga, Dominique Olié, Elie Ofek, and Zsolt Katona. "When and How Should Firms Differentiate? Quality and Advertising Decisions in a Duopoly." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 59, no. 2 (December 2022): 1252–1265.
      • November 2022
      • Article

      Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains

      By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton
      Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money, reputation). In...  View Details
      Keywords: Opportunities; Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Success; Perception
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      Prinsloo, Emily, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John, and Michael I. Norton. "Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains." Psychological Science 33, no. 11 (November 2022): 1857–1866.
      • 2022
      • Report

      The First Four Healthy Building Strategies Every Building Should Pursue to Reduce Risk from COVID-19

      By: Joseph G. Allen, Emily Jones, Marissa V. Rainbolt, Linsey C. Marr, David Michaels, Leslie R. Cadet, Shelly L. Miller, Meira Levinson, Lidia Morawska, Richard L. Corsi, Nira R. Pollock, Yuguo Li, Alasdair P.S. Munro, Kelly Grier, Qingyan Chen, John D. Macomber and Xiaodong Cao
      Understanding of the most probable transmission routes and identifying the risk environments for disease spread should always be among the first critical steps in the response to future disease threats. This is one of the most vital public health lessons of the...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Pandemics; Buildings and Facilities; Risk and Uncertainty; Health Industry; Education Industry; Real Estate Industry
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      Allen, Joseph G., Emily Jones, Marissa V. Rainbolt, Linsey C. Marr, David Michaels, Leslie R. Cadet, Shelly L. Miller, Meira Levinson, Lidia Morawska, Richard L. Corsi, Nira R. Pollock, Yuguo Li, Alasdair P.S. Munro, Kelly Grier, Qingyan Chen, John D. Macomber, and Xiaodong Cao. "The First Four Healthy Building Strategies Every Building Should Pursue to Reduce Risk from COVID-19." Report, Lancet COVID-19 Commission, Task Force on Safe School, Safe Work, Safe Travel, July 2022. (COVID-19 Commission.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Measuring the Tolerance of the State: Theory and Application to Protest

      By: Veli Andirin, Yusuf Neggers, Mehdi Shadmehr and Jesse M. Shapiro
      We develop a measure of a regime's tolerance for an action by its citizens. We ground our measure in an economic model and apply it to the setting of political protest. In the model, a regime anticipating a protest can take a costly action to repress it. We define the...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Protests; Modeling And Analysis; Government and Politics; Conflict and Resolution
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      Andirin, Veli, Yusuf Neggers, Mehdi Shadmehr, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Measuring the Tolerance of the State: Theory and Application to Protest." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30167, June 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina

      By: Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle
      Many medical decisions during the pandemic were made without the support of causal evidence obtained in clinical trials. We study the case of nebulized ibuprofen (NaIHS), a drug that was extensively used on COVID-19 patients in Argentina amidst wild claims about its...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Drug Treatment; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Decision Making; Outcome or Result; Argentina
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      Calonico, Sebastian, Rafael Di Tella, and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle. "Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30084, May 2022.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Transferable Skills? Founders as Venture Capitalists

      By: Paul A. Gompers and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
      In this paper we explore whether or not the experience as a founder of a venture capital-backed startup influences the performance of founders who become venture capitalists (VCs). We find that nearly 7% of VCs were previously founders of a venture-backed startup....  View Details
      Keywords: Founders; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Performance; Personal Development and Career; Success
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      Gompers, Paul A., and Vladimir Mukharlyamov. "Transferable Skills? Founders as Venture Capitalists." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29907, April 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Transformation of Self Employment

      By: Innessa Colaiacovo, Margaret Dalton, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William R. Kerr
      Over the past half-century, while self-employment has consistently accounted for around one in ten of the United States workforce, its composition has changed. Since 1970, industries with high startup capital requirements have declined from 53% of self-employment to...  View Details
      Keywords: Self-employment; Startup Investment; Occupational Choice; Financing; Small Business; Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Financing and Loans
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      Colaiacovo, Innessa, Margaret Dalton, Sari Pekkala Kerr, and William R. Kerr. "The Transformation of Self Employment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-051, January 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Political Economy of Anti-Bribery Enforcement

      By: Lauren Cohen and Bo Li
      This paper documents novel evidence on the influence of political incentives in the regulatory enforcement of foreign bribery. Using exogenous variation in the timing and geographic location of U.S. Congressional elections, we find that the probability of a Foreign...  View Details
      Keywords: Bribery; Regulatory Enforcement; Crime and Corruption; Governance Controls; Political Elections
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Bo Li. "The Political Economy of Anti-Bribery Enforcement." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29624, December 2021.
      • Article

      Financial Shame Spirals: How Shame Intensifies Financial Hardship

      By: Joe J. Gladstone, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Adam Eric Greenberg and Adam D. Galinsky
      Financial hardship is an established source of shame. This research explores whether shame is also a driver and exacerbator of financial hardship. Six experimental, archival, and correlational studies (N = 9,110)—including data from customer bank account histories and...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Hardship; Financial Decision-making; Shame; Guilt; Personal Finance; Financial Condition; Decision Making; Emotions
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      Gladstone, Joe J., Jon M. Jachimowicz, Adam Eric Greenberg, and Adam D. Galinsky. "Financial Shame Spirals: How Shame Intensifies Financial Hardship." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 167 (November 2021): 42–56.
      • November 2021
      • Article

      Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective

      By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard
      In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative...  View Details
      Keywords: Panel Data; Dynamic Causal Effects; Potential Outcomes; Finite Population; Nonparametric; Mathematical Methods
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      Bojinov, Iavor, Ashesh Rambachan, and Neil Shephard. "Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective." Quantitative Economics 12, no. 4 (November 2021): 1171–1196.
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning

      By: Shawn A. Cole, Martin Abel and Bilal Zia
      This paper tests experiential learning as a debiasing tool to reduce gambling in South Africa, through a randomized field experiment. The study implements a simple, interactive game that simulates the odds of winning the national lottery through dice rolling....  View Details
      Keywords: Debiasing; Experiential Learning; Behavioral Economics; Financial Education; Learning; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Behavior; Decision Making
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      Cole, Shawn A., Martin Abel, and Bilal Zia. "Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning." World Bank Economic Review 35, no. 3 (October 2021): 745–763.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara and Don Carmichael
      We exploit anonymized administrative data provided by a major fintech platform to investigate whether using alternative data to assess borrowers’ creditworthiness results in broader credit access. Comparing actual outcomes of the fintech platform’s model to...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech Lending; Alternative Data; Machine Learning; Algorithm Bias; Finance; Information Technology; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Credit
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara, and Don Carmichael. "Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-024, October 2021.
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

      By: Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher and Michael Wahlen
      We study a novel, low-cost approach to aggregating judgment from a large number of industry experts on ideas that they encounter in their normal course of business. Our context is the movie industry, in which customer appeal is difficult to predict and investment costs...  View Details
      Keywords: Judgment Aggregation; Quality Uncertainty; Creative Industry; Project Evaluation And Selection; Creativity; Film Entertainment; Judgments; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Luo, Hong, Jeffrey T. Macher, and Michael Wahlen. "Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry." Management Science 67, no. 10 (October 2021): 6358–6377.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes

      By: Arlen Guarin, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia and Jorge Tamayo
      Identifying the effect of physicians’ skills on health outcomes is a challenging task due to the nonrandom sorting between physicians and hospitals. We overcome this challenge by exploiting a Colombian government program that randomly assigned 2,126 physicians to 618...  View Details
      Keywords: Physicians' Health Skills; Health Birth Outcomes; Birthing Outcomes; Experimental Evidence; Health Care and Treatment; Competency and Skills; Outcome or Result; Health Industry; Colombia
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      Guarin, Arlen, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia, and Jorge Tamayo. "The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-015, February 2021. (Revised November 2021.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Salience

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their...  View Details
      Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Salience." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29274, September 2021.
      • Summer 2021
      • Article

      Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths

      By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim
      We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy
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      Kobilov, Botir, Ethan Rouen, and George Serafeim. "Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths." Journal of Government and Economics 2 (Summer 2021).
      • July 2021
      • Article

      Outsourcing Tasks Online: Matching Supply and Demand on Peer-to-Peer Internet Platforms

      By: Zoë Cullen and Chiara Farronato
      We study the growth of online peer-to-peer markets. Using data from TaskRabbit, an expanding marketplace for domestic tasks at the time of our study, we show that growth varies considerably across cities. To disentangle the potential drivers of growth, we look...  View Details
      Keywords: Two-sided Market; Two-sided Platforms; Peer-to-peer Markets; Platform Strategy; Sharing Economy; Platform Growth; Internet and the Web; Digital Platforms; Strategy; Market Design; Network Effects
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      Cullen, Zoë, and Chiara Farronato. "Outsourcing Tasks Online: Matching Supply and Demand on Peer-to-Peer Internet Platforms." Management Science 67, no. 7 (July 2021).
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