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  • 2023
  • Article

Association Between Regulatory Submission Characteristics and Recalls of Medical Devices Receiving 510(k) Clearance
By: Alexander O. Everhart, Soumya Sen, Ariel D. Stern, Yi Zhu and Pinar Karaca-Mandic
Importance: Most regulated medical devices enter the U.S. market via the 510(k) regulatory submission pathway, wherein manufacturers demonstrate that applicant devices are “substantially equivalent” to 1 or more “predicate” devices (legally marketed medical devices...  View Details
Keywords: Recalls; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Post-market Surveillance of Software Medical Devices: Evidence from Regulatory Data
By: Alexander O. Everhart and Ariel D. Stern
Medical devices increasingly include software components, which facilitate remote patient monitoring. The introduction of software into previously analog medical devices as well as innovation in software-driven devices may introduce new safety concerns—all the more so...  View Details
Keywords: Technological Innovation; Safety; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Health Care and Treatment; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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  • December 2022
  • Article

When and How Should Firms Differentiate? Quality and Advertising Decisions in a Duopoly
By: Dominique Olié Lauga, Elie Ofek and Zsolt Katona
A prominent hallmark of competitive interaction is the desire to differentiate from rivals. In this article, the authors examine under what conditions firms will differentiate through product quality versus advertising intensity. Firms select quality in a first stage,...  View Details
Keywords: Competition; Advertising; Product Positioning
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  • November 2022
  • Article

Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains
By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton
Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money, reputation). In...  View Details
Keywords: Opportunities; Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Success; Perception
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  • 2022
  • Report

The First Four Healthy Building Strategies Every Building Should Pursue to Reduce Risk from COVID-19
By: Joseph G. Allen, Emily Jones, Marissa V. Rainbolt, Linsey C. Marr, David Michaels, Leslie R. Cadet, Shelly L. Miller, Meira Levinson, Lidia Morawska, Richard L. Corsi, Nira R. Pollock, Yuguo Li, Alasdair P.S. Munro, Kelly Grier, Qingyan Chen, John D. Macomber and Xiaodong Cao
Understanding of the most probable transmission routes and identifying the risk environments for disease spread should always be among the first critical steps in the response to future disease threats. This is one of the most vital public health lessons of the...  View Details
Keywords: Health Pandemics; Buildings and Facilities; Risk and Uncertainty; Health Industry; Education Industry; Real Estate Industry
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Measuring the Tolerance of the State: Theory and Application to Protest
By: Veli Andirin, Yusuf Neggers, Mehdi Shadmehr and Jesse M. Shapiro
We develop a measure of a regime's tolerance for an action by its citizens. We ground our measure in an economic model and apply it to the setting of political protest. In the model, a regime anticipating a protest can take a costly action to repress it. We define the...  View Details
Keywords: Political Protests; Modeling And Analysis; Government and Politics; Conflict and Resolution
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina
By: Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle
Many medical decisions during the pandemic were made without the support of causal evidence obtained in clinical trials. We study the case of nebulized ibuprofen (NaIHS), a drug that was extensively used on COVID-19 patients in Argentina amidst wild claims about its...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Drug Treatment; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Decision Making; Outcome or Result; Argentina
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  • April 2022
  • Article

Predictable Financial Crises
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Transferable Skills? Founders as Venture Capitalists
By: Paul A. Gompers and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
In this paper we explore whether or not the experience as a founder of a venture capital-backed startup influences the performance of founders who become venture capitalists (VCs). We find that nearly 7% of VCs were previously founders of a venture-backed startup....  View Details
Keywords: Founders; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Performance; Personal Development and Career; Success
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

The Transformation of Self Employment
By: Innessa Colaiacovo, Margaret Dalton, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William R. Kerr
Over the past half-century, while self-employment has consistently accounted for around one in ten of the United States workforce, its composition has changed. Since 1970, industries with high startup capital requirements have declined from 53% of self-employment to...  View Details
Keywords: Self-employment; Startup Investment; Occupational Choice; Financing; Small Business; Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Financing and Loans
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

The Political Economy of Anti-Bribery Enforcement
By: Lauren Cohen and Bo Li
This paper documents novel evidence on the influence of political incentives in the regulatory enforcement of foreign bribery. Using exogenous variation in the timing and geographic location of U.S. Congressional elections, we find that the probability of a Foreign...  View Details
Keywords: Bribery; Regulatory Enforcement; Crime and Corruption; Governance Controls; Political Elections
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  • Article

Financial Shame Spirals: How Shame Intensifies Financial Hardship
By: Joe J. Gladstone, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Adam Eric Greenberg and Adam D. Galinsky
Financial hardship is an established source of shame. This research explores whether shame is also a driver and exacerbator of financial hardship. Six experimental, archival, and correlational studies (N = 9,110)—including data from customer bank account histories and...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Hardship; Financial Decision-making; Shame; Guilt; Personal Finance; Financial Condition; Decision Making; Emotions
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  • November 2021
  • Article

Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective
By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard
In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative...  View Details
Keywords: Panel Data; Dynamic Causal Effects; Potential Outcomes; Finite Population; Nonparametric; Mathematical Methods
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  • October 2021
  • Article

Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning
By: Shawn A. Cole, Martin Abel and Bilal Zia
This paper tests experiential learning as a debiasing tool to reduce gambling in South Africa, through a randomized field experiment. The study implements a simple, interactive game that simulates the odds of winning the national lottery through dice rolling....  View Details
Keywords: Debiasing; Experiential Learning; Behavioral Economics; Financial Education; Learning; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Behavior; Decision Making
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data
By: Marco Di Maggio, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara and Don Carmichael
We exploit anonymized administrative data provided by a major fintech platform to investigate whether using alternative data to assess borrowers’ creditworthiness results in broader credit access. Comparing actual outcomes of the fintech platform’s model to...  View Details
Keywords: Fintech Lending; Alternative Data; Machine Learning; Algorithm Bias; Finance; Information Technology; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Credit
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  • October 2021
  • Article

Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry
By: Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher and Michael Wahlen
We study a novel, low-cost approach to aggregating judgment from a large number of industry experts on ideas that they encounter in their normal course of business. Our context is the movie industry, in which customer appeal is difficult to predict and investment costs...  View Details
Keywords: Judgment Aggregation; Quality Uncertainty; Creative Industry; Project Evaluation And Selection; Creativity; Film Entertainment; Judgments; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes
By: Arlen Guarin, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia and Jorge Tamayo
Identifying the effect of physicians’ skills on health outcomes is a challenging task due to the nonrandom sorting between physicians and hospitals. We overcome this challenge by exploiting a Colombian government program that randomly assigned 2,126 physicians to 618...  View Details
Keywords: Physicians' Health Skills; Health Birth Outcomes; Birthing Outcomes; Experimental Evidence; Health Care and Treatment; Competency and Skills; Outcome or Result; Health Industry; Colombia
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Salience
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their...  View Details
Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior
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  • Summer 2021
  • Article

Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths
By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim
We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy
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  • July 2021
  • Article

Outsourcing Tasks Online: Matching Supply and Demand on Peer-to-Peer Internet Platforms
By: Zoë Cullen and Chiara Farronato
We study the growth of online peer-to-peer markets. Using data from TaskRabbit, an expanding marketplace for domestic tasks at the time of our study, we show that growth varies considerably across cities. To disentangle the potential drivers of growth, we look...  View Details
Keywords: Two-sided Market; Two-sided Platforms; Peer-to-peer Markets; Platform Strategy; Sharing Economy; Platform Growth; Internet and the Web; Digital Platforms; Strategy; Market Design; Network Effects
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