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  • July–August 2023
  • Article

What Smart Companies Know About Integrating AI
By: Silvio Palumbo and David Edelman
AI has the power to gather, analyze, and utilize enormous volumes of individual customer data to achieve precision and scale in personalization. The experiences of Mercury Financial, CVS Health, and Starbucks debunk the prevailing notion that extracting value from AI...  View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Customization and Personalization; Integration; Technology Adoption
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  • 2023
  • Article

Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recourse
By: Martin Pawelczyk, Teresa Datta, Johannes van-den-Heuvel, Gjergji Kasneci and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning models are increasingly being employed to make consequential decisions in real-world settings, it becomes critical to ensure that individuals who are adversely impacted (e.g., loan denied) by the predictions of these models are provided with a means...  View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2023
  • Case

Christiana Figueres and the Collaborative Approach to Negotiating Climate Action
By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
This case study centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to build momentum for, and ultimately pass, the 2015...  View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Negotiation; Environmental Regulation; International Relations; Leadership
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  • April 2023
  • Article

The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity
By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'...  View Details
Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Firm Level Data; Innovation; Productivity; Exporting; Importing; Credit Constraints; Currency Exchange Rate; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Avoiding Idiosyncratic Volatility: Flow Sensitivity to Individual Stock Returns
By: Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni, Shimon Kogan and Ran Xing
Despite positive and significant earnings announcement premia, we find that institutional investors reduce their exposure to stocks before earnings announcements. A novel result on the sensitivity of flows to individual stock returns provides a potential explanation....  View Details
Keywords: New Trading; Mutual Funds; Fund Flows; Limits To Arbitrage; Financial Constraints; Earnings Announcements; Institutional Investing; Stocks
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  • 2023
  • Article

Association Between Regulatory Submission Characteristics and Recalls of Medical Devices Receiving 510(k) Clearance
By: Alexander O. Everhart, Soumya Sen, Ariel D. Stern, Yi Zhu and Pinar Karaca-Mandic
Importance: Most regulated medical devices enter the U.S. market via the 510(k) regulatory submission pathway, wherein manufacturers demonstrate that applicant devices are “substantially equivalent” to 1 or more “predicate” devices (legally marketed medical devices...  View Details
Keywords: Recalls; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Post-market Surveillance of Software Medical Devices: Evidence from Regulatory Data
By: Alexander O. Everhart and Ariel D. Stern
Medical devices increasingly include software components, which facilitate remote patient monitoring. The introduction of software into previously analog medical devices as well as innovation in software-driven devices may introduce new safety concerns—all the more so...  View Details
Keywords: Technological Innovation; Safety; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Health Care and Treatment; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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  • December 2022
  • Article

I Don't 'Recall': The Decision to Delay Innovation Launch to Avoid Costly Product Failure
By: Byungyeon Kim, Oded Koenigsberg and Elie Ofek
Innovations embody novel features or cutting-edge components aimed at delivering desired customer benefits. Oftentimes, however, we observe the need to recall new products shortly after their introduction. Indeed, a firm may rush an innovation to market in an attempt...  View Details
Keywords: Innovation Management; Innovation And Strategy; Product Development Strategy; Product Introduction; Quality Control; Product Recalls; Game Theory; Market Timing; Innovation Strategy; Product Launch; Product Development
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  • December 2022
  • Article

When and How Should Firms Differentiate? Quality and Advertising Decisions in a Duopoly
By: Dominique Olié Lauga, Elie Ofek and Zsolt Katona
A prominent hallmark of competitive interaction is the desire to differentiate from rivals. In this article, the authors examine under what conditions firms will differentiate through product quality versus advertising intensity. Firms select quality in a first stage,...  View Details
Keywords: Competition; Advertising; Product Positioning
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  • November 2022
  • Article

Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains
By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton
Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money,...  View Details
Keywords: Opportunities; Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Success; Perception
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  • 2022
  • Report

The First Four Healthy Building Strategies Every Building Should Pursue to Reduce Risk from COVID-19
By: Joseph G. Allen, Emily Jones, Marissa V. Rainbolt, Linsey C. Marr, David Michaels, Leslie R. Cadet, Shelly L. Miller, Meira Levinson, Lidia Morawska, Richard L. Corsi, Nira R. Pollock, Yuguo Li, Alasdair P.S. Munro, Kelly Grier, Qingyan Chen, John D. Macomber and Xiaodong Cao
Understanding of the most probable transmission routes and identifying the risk environments for disease spread should always be among the first critical steps in the response to future disease threats. This is one of the most vital public health lessons of the...  View Details
Keywords: Health Pandemics; Buildings and Facilities; Risk and Uncertainty; Health Industry; Education Industry; Real Estate Industry
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Measuring the Tolerance of the State: Theory and Application to Protest
By: Veli Andirin, Yusuf Neggers, Mehdi Shadmehr and Jesse M. Shapiro
We develop a measure of a regime's tolerance for an action by its citizens. We ground our measure in an economic model and apply it to the setting of political protest. In the model, a regime anticipating a protest can take a costly action to repress it. We define the...  View Details
Keywords: Political Protests; Modeling And Analysis; Government and Politics; Conflict and Resolution
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina
By: Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle
Many medical decisions during the pandemic were made without the support of causal evidence obtained in clinical trials. We study the case of nebulized ibuprofen (NaIHS), a drug that was extensively used on COVID-19 patients in Argentina amidst wild claims about its...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Drug Treatment; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Decision Making; Outcome or Result; Argentina
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  • April 2022
  • Article

Predictable Financial Crises
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Transferable Skills? Founders as Venture Capitalists
By: Paul A. Gompers and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
In this paper we explore whether or not the experience as a founder of a venture capital-backed startup influences the performance of founders who become venture capitalists (VCs). We find that nearly 7% of VCs were previously founders of a venture-backed startup....  View Details
Keywords: Founders; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Performance; Personal Development and Career; Success
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

The Transformation of Self Employment
By: Innessa Colaiacovo, Margaret Dalton, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William R. Kerr
Over the past half-century, while self-employment has consistently accounted for around one in ten of the United States workforce, its composition has changed. Since 1970, industries with high startup capital requirements have declined from 53% of self-employment to...  View Details
Keywords: Self-employment; Startup Investment; Occupational Choice; Financing; Small Business; Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Financing and Loans
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

The Political Economy of Anti-Bribery Enforcement
By: Lauren Cohen and Bo Li
This paper documents novel evidence on the influence of political incentives in the regulatory enforcement of foreign bribery. Using exogenous variation in the timing and geographic location of U.S. Congressional elections, we find that the probability of a Foreign...  View Details
Keywords: Bribery; Regulatory Enforcement; Crime and Corruption; Governance Controls; Political Elections
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  • Article

Financial Shame Spirals: How Shame Intensifies Financial Hardship
By: Joe J. Gladstone, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Adam Eric Greenberg and Adam D. Galinsky
Financial hardship is an established source of shame. This research explores whether shame is also a driver and exacerbator of financial hardship. Six experimental, archival, and correlational studies (N = 9,110)—including data from customer bank account histories and...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Hardship; Financial Decision-making; Shame; Guilt; Personal Finance; Financial Condition; Decision Making; Emotions
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  • November 2021
  • Article

Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective
By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard
In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative...  View Details
Keywords: Panel Data; Dynamic Causal Effects; Potential Outcomes; Finite Population; Nonparametric; Mathematical Methods
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  • October 2021
  • Article

Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning
By: Shawn A. Cole, Martin Abel and Bilal Zia
This paper tests experiential learning as a debiasing tool to reduce gambling in South Africa, through a randomized field experiment. The study implements a simple, interactive game that simulates the odds of winning the national lottery through dice rolling....  View Details
Keywords: Debiasing; Experiential Learning; Behavioral Economics; Financial Education; Learning; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Behavior; Decision Making
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