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- 2023
- Working Paper
Rule by Market: The Chinese State in Factor Markets
By: Meg Rithmire
Political economy on China and beyond generally has been premised on a trade-off between state and market power. In the context of China’s reforms, markets and market mechanisms were hypothesized to replace state power in allocating important economic resources. Yet,...
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- March 2022 (Revised April 2023)
- Case
Hometown Foods: Changing Price Amid Inflation
During the early part of the 2021 Covid-19 pandemic, Hometown Foods, a large seller of flour-based products, thrived as consumers hoarded baked goods and took up baking to pass the time and find comfort. Then, amid growing shortages in commodities, a vaccine arrived,...
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- September 2021
- Article
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...
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- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio...
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Keywords:
Bubble;
Market Efficiency;
Predictability;
Price Bubble;
Stocks;
Price;
Forecasting and Prediction
- 2018
- Working Paper
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...
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- August 2018
- Article
Extrapolation and Bubbles
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors...
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- November 2016 (Revised February 2017)
- Case
Square, Inc. IPO
By: Ramana Nanda, Robert White and Lauren G. Pickle
In November 2015, Square, Inc. launched its initial public offering (IPO). The IPO had an offering price of $9 per share, lower than the $11 to $13 estimate that had been outlined in the preliminary prospectus and 42% below the $15.50 share price in its most recent...
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- March 2012 (Revised October 2012)
- Case
Hayman Capital Management
By: Robin Greenwood, Julie Messina and Jared Dourdeville
In late December 2011, Hayman Capital founder and portfolio manager Kyle Bass was reviewing Japanese government budget projections for 2012. The projections appeared contrary to Hayman Capital's views on Japan, where the fund had built a bearish position. Japan had the...
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- May 2011
- Background Note
Scale Effects, Network Effects, and Investment Strategy
By: Willy Shih
This technical note discusses scale economies, and direct and indirect network effects in the context of building better business models. Some of the great business disasters of the dot.com bubble were companies that scaled their infrastructure without working through...
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- March 2011
- Supplement
Gold in 2011 (CW)
By: Robin Greenwood
Courseware for case 211095.
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- March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
- Case
Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?
By: Robin Greenwood and Benjamin Steiner
Case explores the pricing of gold in 2011. Is the pricing justified or are we in a speculative bubble? What data are useful in determining a view on this question?
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Keywords:
Inflation and Deflation;
Money;
Asset Management;
Investment;
Price Bubble;
Policy;
Risk Management
- 2014
- Working Paper
Financing Risk and Innovation
By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying...
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- July 2010 (Revised August 2021)
- Supplement
Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships (CW)
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Albert W. Sheen
After booming for more than five years, the global shipping (maritime) industry experienced a dramatic crash in late 2008 as the global financial system froze and the global economy slid into recession. Ship charter rates (revenue) fell by as much as 90% causing prices...
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- August 2009
- Article
Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles
By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel
We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the...
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- April 2009 (Revised December 2015)
- Case
Dot.com: Online Pet Retailing
By: Tom Nicholas and David Chen
From 1995 to 1999, the U.S. experienced a period of tremendous growth in its information technology (IT) sector. The IT industry, although it accounted for less than 10% of the U.S. economy's total output, contributed disproportionately to economic growth. One market...
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- June 2008
- Article
'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?
By: Reshmaan Hussam, David Porter and Vernon Smith
We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and “error” elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: “yes.”...
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- 2008
- Working Paper
Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles
By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel
We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the...
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- January 2008 (Revised January 2010)
- Case
iBasis, Inc.
By: Andrew Wasynczuk, Katherine Dowd and Nicole Kravec
iBasis examines the development of a long-term relationship between equipment manufacturer Cisco and start-up iBasis, a voice-over-internet wholesaler. Questions arise for iBasis founders as to how best to build a beneficial relationship with the much larger partner....
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- August 2007 (Revised June 2020)
- Case
Trouble with a Bubble
By: Tom Nicholas
Examines technology, firm performance, and the stock market during the 1929 Great Crash and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The 1920s was an extraordinary period of technological progress marked by a strong run-up in stock market prices. Firms invested heavily in...
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- September 2005 (Revised May 2007)
- Case
OuterLink Corporation (A)
By: Josh Lerner and Brenda Chia
Zero Stage Capital is addressing a troubled investment in OuterLink Corp., which has a capital deficit of $30 million and was written off by all but one of its investors as a victim of the technology bubble. The venture organization must decide whether to shutter the...
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