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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (1,113)
    • Faculty Publications  (29)

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    • All HBS Web  (1,113)
      • Faculty Publications  (29)

      Preference Prediction Remove Preference Prediction →

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      The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences
      Predicting Consumer Tastes with Big Data at Gap
      → Search All HBS Web
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Topic Preference Detection: A Novel Approach to Understand Perspective Taking in Conversation

      By: Michael Yeomans and Alison Wood Brooks
      Although most humans engage in conversations constantly throughout their lives, conversational mistakes are commonplace— interacting with others is difficult, and conversation re-quires quick, relentless perspective-taking and decision making. For example: during every...  View Details
      Keywords: Natural Language Processing; Interpersonal Communication; Perspective; Decision Making; Perception
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      Yeomans, Michael, and Alison Wood Brooks. "Topic Preference Detection: A Novel Approach to Understand Perspective Taking in Conversation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-077, February 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

      By: Nicolas Padilla and Eva Ascarza
      The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value And Value Chain; Consumer Behavior; Data And Data Sets; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry
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      Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-091, February 2019. (Revised May 2020.)
      • Article

      Why Grit Requires Perseverance and Passion to Positively Predict Performance

      By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Andreas Wihler, Erica R. Bailey and Adam D. Galinsky
      Prior studies linking grit—defined as perseverance and passion for long-term goals—to performance are beset by contradictory evidence. As a result, commentators have increasingly declared that grit has limited effects. We propose that this inconsistent evidence has...  View Details
      Keywords: Grit; Perseverance; Passion; Performance; Motivation; Personal Characteristics; Emotions; Performance; Motivation And Incentives
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      Jachimowicz, Jon M., Andreas Wihler, Erica R. Bailey, and Adam D. Galinsky. "Why Grit Requires Perseverance and Passion to Positively Predict Performance." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 40 (October 2, 2018): 9980–9985.
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Channeled Attention and Stable Errors

      By: Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch, Matthew Rabin and Joshua Schwartzstein
      A common critique of models of mistaken beliefs is that people should recognize their error after observations they thought were unlikely. This paper develops a framework for assessing when a given error is likely to be discovered, in the sense that the error-maker...  View Details
      Keywords: Perception; Behavior; Theory; Situation Or Environment
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      Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan, Matthew Rabin, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "Channeled Attention and Stable Errors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-108, June 2018.
      • Article

      (Mis)perceptions of Inequality

      By: Oliver P. Hauser and Michael I. Norton
      Inequality is arguably the defining societal issue of the 21st century. The debate over “who gets what’ underlies policy debates ranging from taxation to health care to wages and permeates society at all levels, attracting increasing interest from policymakers,...  View Details
      Keywords: Equality And Inequality; Wealth And Poverty; Perception; Society; Policy
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      Hauser, Oliver P., and Michael I. Norton. "(Mis)perceptions of Inequality." Special Issue on Inequality and Social Class. Current Opinion in Psychology 18 (December 2017): 21–25.
      • August 2016
      • Article

      The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences

      By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John
      Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the...  View Details
      Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition And Thinking; Perception; Forecasting And prediction
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      Barasz, Kate, Tami Kim, and Leslie K. John. "The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 53, no. 4 (August 2016): 597–607.
      • Article

      The Not-So-Common-Wealth of Australia: Evidence for a Cross-Cultural Desire for a More Equal Distribution of Wealth.

      By: Michael I. Norton, David T. Neal, Cassandra L. Govan, Dan Ariely and Elise Holland
      Recent evidence suggests that Americans underestimate wealth inequality in the United States and favor a more equal wealth distribution (Norton & Ariely, 2011). Does this pattern reflect ideological dynamics unique to the United States, or is the phenomenon evident in...  View Details
      Keywords: Wealth; Equality And Inequality; Australia; United States
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      Norton, Michael I., David T. Neal, Cassandra L. Govan, Dan Ariely, and Elise Holland. "The Not-So-Common-Wealth of Australia: Evidence for a Cross-Cultural Desire for a More Equal Distribution of Wealth." Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy 14, no. 1 (December 2014): 339–351.
      • 2014
      • Article

      Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Dimitri Vayanos
      We examine empirically how the maturity structure of government debt affects bond yields and excess returns. Our analysis is based on a theoretical model of preferred habitat in which clienteles with strong preferences for specific maturities trade with arbitrageurs....  View Details
      Keywords: Bonds; Investment Return
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 663–713. (Also earlier version NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13806, February 2008.)
      • 2013
      • Chapter

      Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Current Survey

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We survey the theory and evidence of behavioral corporate finance, which generally takes one of two approaches. The market timing and catering approach views managerial financing and investment decisions as rational managerial responses to securities mispricing. The...  View Details
      Keywords: Managerial Roles; Theory; Corporate Finance; Financial Management; Investment; Market Timing; Behavioral Finance; Prejudice And Bias; Economics; Forecasting And prediction
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Current Survey." In Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Volume 2A: Corporate Finance, edited by George M. Constantinides, Milton Harris, and Rene M. Stulz, 357–424. Handbooks in Economics. New York: Elsevier, 2013.
      • Article

      Employee Selection as a Control System

      By: Dennis Campbell
      Theories from the economics, management control, and organizational behavior literatures predict that when it is difficult to align incentives by contracting on output, aligning preferences via employee selection may provide a useful alternative. This study...  View Details
      Keywords: Management Systems; Governance Controls; Employees; Selection And Staffing; Motivation And Incentives; Decision Making; Business Model
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      Campbell, Dennis. "Employee Selection as a Control System." Journal of Accounting Research 50, no. 4 (September 2012): 931–966.
      • February 2012
      • Article

      Walking the Talk in Multiparty Bargaining: An Experimental Investigation

      By: Kathleen L. McGinn, Katherine L. Milkman and Markus Noth
      We study the framing effects of communication on payoffs in multiparty bargaining. Communication has been shown to be more truthful and revealing than predicted in equilibrium. Because talk is preference revealing, it may effectively frame bargaining around a logic of...  View Details
      Keywords: Competition; Negotiation Process; Fairness; Negotiation Types; Interpersonal Communication; Game Theory; Cooperation
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      McGinn, Kathleen L., Katherine L. Milkman, and Markus Noth. "Walking the Talk in Multiparty Bargaining: An Experimental Investigation." Journal of Economic Psychology 33, no. 1 (February 2012).
      • Article

      Market Heterogeneity and Local Capacity Decisions in Services

      By: Dennis Campbell and Frances X. Frei
      We empirically document factors that influence how local operating managers use discretion to balance the tradeoff between service capacity costs and customer sensitivity to service time. Our findings, using data from one of the largest financial services providers in...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Cost; Standards; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Performance Capacity; Performance Productivity; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Campbell, Dennis, and Frances X. Frei. "Market Heterogeneity and Local Capacity Decisions in Services." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 13, no. 1 (Winter 2011): 2–19. (Lead Article.)
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments

      By: Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford
      This paper studies the cost of capital for alternative investments. We document that the risk profile of the aggregate hedge fund universe can be accurately matched by a simple index put option writing strategy that offers monthly liquidity and complete transparency...  View Details
      Keywords: Cost Of Capital; Financial Liquidity; Investment; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Risk And Uncertainty
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      Jurek, Jakub W., and Erik Stafford. "The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-013, September 2011. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19643, November 2013.)
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      'Last-place Aversion': Evidence and Redistributive Implications

      By: Ilyana Kuziemko, Ryan W. Buell, Taly Reich and Michael I. Norton
      Why do low-income individuals often oppose redistribution? We hypothesize that an aversion to being in "last place" undercuts support for redistribution, with low-income individuals punishing those slightly below themselves to keep someone "beneath" them. In laboratory...  View Details
      Keywords: Wages; Surveys; Wealth And Poverty; Behavior; Income; Research; Rank And Position; Attitudes; Personal Characteristics; Economics
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      Kuziemko, Ilyana, Ryan W. Buell, Taly Reich, and Michael I. Norton. "'Last-place Aversion': Evidence and Redistributive Implications." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 17234, August 2011.
      • June 2011
      • Article

      Truth in Giving: Experimental Evidence on the Welfare Effects of Informed Giving to the Poor

      By: Christina Fong and Felix Oberholzer-Gee
      It is often difficult for donors to predict the value of charitable giving because they know little about the persons who receive their help. This concern is particularly acute when making contributions to organizations that serve heterogeneous populations. While we...  View Details
      Keywords: Philanthropy And Charitable Giving; Policy; Information; Knowledge Acquisition; Game Theory; Prejudice And Bias; Poverty; Welfare
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      Fong, Christina, and Felix Oberholzer-Gee. "Truth in Giving: Experimental Evidence on the Welfare Effects of Informed Giving to the Poor." Special Issue on Charitable Giving and Fundraising Journal of Public Economics 95, nos. 5-6 (June 2011): 436–444.
      • 2011
      • Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction

      By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth
      Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The...  View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting And prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices And Conditions; Competition; Motivation And Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness
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      Ert, Eyal, Ido Erev, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 2, no. 3 (September 2011): 257–276.
      • Article

      The Social Utility of Feature Creep

      By: Debora V. Thompson and Michael I. Norton
      Previous research shows that consumers frequently choose products with too many features that they later find difficult to use. Our research shows that this seemingly suboptimal behavior may in fact confer benefits when factoring in the social context of consumption....  View Details
      Keywords: Impression Management; Social Influence; Conspicuous Consumption; Signaling; Product Features; Consumer Behavior; Technology; Experience And Expertise; Status And Position
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      Thompson, Debora V., and Michael I. Norton. "The Social Utility of Feature Creep." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 48, no. 3 (June 2011): 555–565.
      • 2011
      • Article

      The Consumer Psychology of Mail-in Rebates

      By: John T. Gourville and Dilip Soman
      Consumers who buy a product intending to use an accompanying mail-in rebate often do not redeem the rebate. To explain this behavior, we argue that consumers use an anchoring and adjustment approach to predicting the likelihood of redeeming a rebate. In keeping with...  View Details
      Keywords: Product Marketing; Consumer Behavior; Sales; Motivation And Incentives
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      Gourville, John T., and Dilip Soman. "The Consumer Psychology of Mail-in Rebates." Journal of Product & Brand Management 20, no. 2 (2011).
      • October 2010
      • Article

      Preferring Balanced vs. Advantageous Peace Agreements: A Study of Israeli Attitudes Towards a Two-State Solution

      By: Deepak Malhotra and Jeremy Ginges
      The paper extends research on fixed-pie perceptions by suggesting that disputants may prefer proposals that are perceived to be equally attractive to both parties (i.e., balanced) rather than one-sided, because balanced agreements are seen as more likely to be...  View Details
      Keywords: Agreements And Arrangements; Conflict And Resolution; Government And Politics; Balance And Stability; Forecasting And prediction; Attitudes; Israel
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      Malhotra, Deepak, and Jeremy Ginges. "Preferring Balanced vs. Advantageous Peace Agreements: A Study of Israeli Attitudes Towards a Two-State Solution." Judgment and Decision Making 5, no. 6 (October 2010): 420–427.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Employee Selection as a Control System

      By: Dennis Campbell
      Theories from the economics, management control, and organizational behavior literatures predict that when it is difficult to align incentives by contracting on output, aligning preferences via employee selection may provide a useful alternative. This study...  View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Decision Making; Governance Controls; Employees; Selection And Staffing; Management Systems; Financial Services Industry
      Citation
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      Campbell, Dennis. "Employee Selection as a Control System." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-021, August 2010. (Revised September 2010, April 2012.)
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      The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences
      Predicting Consumer Tastes with Big Data at Gap
      → Search All HBS Web
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