Publications
Publications
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- 2025
- Working Paper
Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement learning (RL) offers potential for optimizing sequences of customer interactions by modeling the relationships
between customer states, company actions, and long-term value. However, its practical implementation often faces significant
challenges.... View Details
- January 2025
- Case
AI Meets VC: The Data-Driven Revolution at Quantum Light Capital
By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan
Ilya Kondrashov, CEO of Quantum Light Capital, was driven to harness AI for identifying high-potential scale-ups. Collaborating with Nik Storonsky, founder of Revolut, the duo observed that most venture capital (VC) decisions were heavily influenced by emotion, with... View Details
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Business Finance; Data Analysis; Angel Investors; Cognitive Biases; Scale; Venture Capital; Investment; Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Innovation Strategy; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Public Opinion; Private Sector; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Business Earnings; Behavioral Finance; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Business Startups; Financial Services Industry; London; United Kingdom
- 2024
- Working Paper
Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models
By: Matthew Shaffer and Charles CY Wang
We study the application of large language models (LLMs) to the estimation of core earnings, i.e., a firm's persistent profitability from its core business activities. This construct is central to investors' assessments of economic performance and valuations. However,... View Details
- April–May 2024
- Article
Gone with the Big Data: Institutional Lender Demand for Private Information
By: Jung Koo Kang
I explore whether big-data sources can crowd out the value of private information acquired through lending relationships. Institutional lenders have been shown to exploit their access to borrowers’ private information by trading on it in financial markets. As a shock... View Details
- February 2024
- Teaching Note
AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19
By: Mark Egan and C. Fritz Foley
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 224-020. In July 2021, the CEO of AB InBev's European operations and his team strategized to position the company for success post-pandemic. As the world's largest beer company, boasting over 500 brands, revenue of $46 billion, and a... View Details
- February 2024
- Case
ReSpo.Vision: The Kickstart of an AI Sports Revolution
By: Paul A. Gompers, Elena Corsi and Nikolina Jonsson
This case study explores the growth journey of Polish computer vision sports start-up ReSpo.Vision in an emerging entrepreneurial ecosystem. By providing 3D data and analysis to soccer clubs, ReSpo.Vision achieved significant milestones with a €1 million seed round, an... View Details
Keywords: Business Startups; Business Plan; Experience and Expertise; Talent and Talent Management; Decisions; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Applications and Software; Business Strategy; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; Poland; Europe
- February 2024
- Module Note
Data-Driven Marketing in Retail Markets
By: Ayelet Israeli
This note describes an eight-class sessions module on data-driven marketing in retail markets. The module aims to familiarize students with core concepts of data-driven marketing in retail, including exploring the opportunities and challenges, adopting best practices,... View Details
Keywords: Data; Data Analytics; Retail; Retail Analytics; Data Science; Business Analytics; ＂Marketing Analytics＂; Omnichannel; Omnichannel Retailing; Omnichannel Retail; DTC; Direct To Consumer Marketing; Ethical Decision Making; Algorithmic Bias; Privacy; A/B Testing; Descriptive Analytics; Prescriptive Analytics; Predictive Analytics; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Marketing Channels; Demand and Consumers; Marketing Strategy; Retail Industry
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Impact of Culture Consistency on Subunit Outcomes
By: Jasmijn Bol, Robert Grasser, Serena Loftus and Tatiana Sandino
We examine the association between subunit culture consistency—defined as the congruence between the organizational values espoused by top management and those perceived and practiced by subunit employees—and subunit outcomes. Using data from 235 subunits of a... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
As firms increasingly rely on customer data for personalization, concerns over privacy and regulatory compliance have grown. Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong individual-level protection by injecting noise into data before collection. While... View Details
- 2023
- Other Article
The Harvard USPTO Patent Dataset: A Large-Scale, Well-Structured, and Multi-Purpose Corpus of Patent Applications
By: Mirac Suzgun, Luke Melas-Kyriazi, Suproteem K. Sarkar, Scott Duke Kominers and Stuart Shieber
Innovation is a major driver of economic and social development, and information about many kinds of innovation is embedded in semi-structured data from patents and patent applications. Though the impact and novelty of innovations expressed in patent data are difficult... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Customer Journey as a Source of Information
By: Nicolas Padilla, Eva Ascarza and Oded Netzer
In the face of heightened data privacy concerns and diminishing third-party data access,
firms are placing increased emphasis on first-party data (1PD) for marketing decisions.
However, in environments with infrequent purchases, reliance on past purchases 1PD... View Details
- September 2023 (Revised January 2024)
- Case
AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19
By: Mark Egan, C. Fritz Foley, Esel Cekin and Emilie Billaud
In July 2021, the CEO of AB InBev's European operations and his team strategized to position the company for success post-pandemic. As the world's largest beer company, boasting over 500 brands, revenue of $46 billion, and a workforce of 160,000 in 2020, AB InBev... View Details
Keywords: Beer; Forecasting; COVID-19; Decision; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Crisis Management; Decisions; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Resource Allocation; Distribution; Production; Business Processes; Strategic Planning; Health Pandemics; Digital Transformation; Markets; Food and Beverage Industry; Belgium; Europe; Latin America; North and Central America
- September 2023 (Revised December 2023)
- Case
TetraScience: Noise and Signal
By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Tom Quinn
In 2019, TetraScience CEO “Spin” Wang needed advice. Five years earlier, he had cofounded a startup that saw early success with a hardware product designed to help laboratory scientists in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical spaces more easily collect data from... View Details
Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Organization; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Digital Platforms; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Organizational Structure; Network Effects; Competitive Strategy; Biotechnology Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States; Boston
- September 2023 (Revised October 2024)
- Case
Forecasting Climate Risks: Aviva’s Climate Calculus
By: Mark Egan and Peter Tufano
In late 2021, Ben Carr, Director of Analytics and Capital Modeling at Aviva Plc (Aviva)—a leading insurer with core operations in the UK, Ireland and Canada,—was preparing for an upcoming presentation before the company's board which included its CEO, Amanda Blanc,... View Details
- July 2023 (Revised July 2023)
- Background Note
Generative AI Value Chain
By: Andy Wu and Matt Higgins
Generative AI refers to a type of artificial intelligence (AI) that can create new content (e.g., text, image, or audio) in response to a prompt from a user. ChatGPT, Bard, and Claude are examples of text generating AIs, and DALL-E, Midjourney, and Stable Diffusion are... View Details
- July 2023
- Article
Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations
By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Feature Importance Disparities for Data Bias Investigations
By: Peter W. Chang, Leor Fishman and Seth Neel
It is widely held that one cause of downstream bias in classifiers is bias present in the training data. Rectifying such biases may involve context-dependent interventions such as training separate models on subgroups, removing features with bias in the collection... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
PRIMO: Private Regression in Multiple Outcomes
By: Seth Neel
We introduce a new differentially private regression setting we call Private Regression in Multiple Outcomes (PRIMO), inspired the common situation where a data analyst wants to perform a set of l regressions while preserving privacy, where the covariates... View Details
- March 2023
- Supplement
Allianz Türkiye (C): Managing the 2017 Hail Storm
By: John D. Macomber and Fares Khrais
Allianz Turkey is a property casualty insurance company operating in a region experiencing increasing losses from natural catastrophe events related to climate change, for example hail, wildfire, and flooding. There are also substantial other natural catastrophe... View Details
- March 2023 (Revised April 2024)
- Case
Allianz Türkiye: Adapting to Climate Change
By: John D. Macomber and Fares Khrais
Allianz Turkey is a property casualty insurance company operating in a region experiencing increasing losses from natural catastrophe events related to climate change, for example hail, wildfire, and flooding. There are also substantial other natural catastrophe... View Details