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- Working Paper
Electoral Turnovers
By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...
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- January 2022
- Background Note
Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left
By: William C. Kirby and Noah B. Truwit
Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been mistrustful of entrepreneurs and the private sector that operates outside the government’s authority. In its first decades under Mao Zedong, the CCP...
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Keywords:
Market Reform;
Gdp;
Government Administration;
Government and Politics;
Private Sector;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Economy;
Globalized Economies and Regions;
Entrepreneurship;
Business and Government Relations;
Globalized Markets and Industries;
Social Issues;
Society;
Economic Growth;
China
- December 2021
- Article
Negativity Spreads More Than Positivity on Twitter after Both Positive and Negative Political Situations
By: Jonas Paul Schöne, Brian Parkinson and Amit Goldenberg
What type of emotional language spreads further in political discourses on social media? Previous research has focused on situations that primarily elicited negative emotions, showing that negative language tended to spread further. The current project extends existing...
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- November 2021
- Article
Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018
By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote—an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.6-billion-observations panel dataset, 2008–2018, we find that the laws...
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- October 2021
- Case
The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats or Levelling Down?
By: Vincent Pons, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella and Elena Corsi
Since 1978, Spain had struggled to control unemployment. The country’s labor law was protective of employees hired long-term and companies used temporary contracts as buffers. In 2012, amid economic recession and a 23.6% unemployment rate, a center-right government of...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
The Changing Role of Business in Society
Business interaction with the U.S. government, historically based on securing industry or company special interests at the expense of the public good, has enabled and furthered government dysfunction. Gridlock within the American political system has precluded the...
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Keywords:
Politics;
Shared Value;
Social Progress Index;
Competitiveness;
Walmart;
BlackRock;
ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance;
ESG;
Transparency;
Campaign Contributions;
Campaign Finance;
Lobbying;
Revolving Door;
Political Ideology;
Political Parties;
Political Partisanship;
Government And Business;
Government Innovation;
Elections;
Democracy;
Capitalism;
Stakeholder Capitalism;
Shareholder Engagement;
Competition;
Strategy;
Government and Politics;
Society;
Social Issues;
Human Needs;
Wealth and Poverty;
Business and Community Relations;
Business and Government Relations;
Corporate Accountability;
Financial Services Industry;
Banking Industry;
United States
- July 2021
- Article
Do Interactions with Candidates Increase Voter Support and Participation? Experimental Evidence from Italy
By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
We test whether politicians can use direct contact to reconnect with citizens, increase turnout, and win votes. During the 2014 Italian municipal elections, we randomly assigned 26,000 voters to receive visits from city council candidates, from canvassers supporting...
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- 2021
- Article
To Thine Own Self Be True? Incentive Problems in Personalized Law
By: Jordan M. Barry, John William Hatfield and Scott Duke Kominers
Recent years have seen an explosion of scholarship on “personalized law.” Commentators foresee a world in which regulators armed with big data and machine learning techniques determine the optimal legal rule for every regulated party, then instantaneously disseminate...
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Keywords:
Personalized Law;
Regulation;
Regulatory Avoidance;
Regulatory Arbitrage;
Law And Economics;
Law And Technology;
Law And Artificial Intelligence;
Futurism;
Moral Hazard;
Elicitation;
Signaling;
Privacy;
Law;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Information Technology;
AI and Machine Learning
- March 2021 (Revised May 2021)
- Case
Capitalism and the Party-State: The People's Republic of China at 70
By: Meg Rithmire and Courtney Han
In 2019, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) turned seventy-years-old and became the longest active authoritarian regime in recent history. By then, China was the world’s second largest economy by GDP (after the United States), and a high-technology industrial...
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- November 2020
- Case
Axis My India
By: Ananth Raman, Ann Winslow and Kairavi Dey
Pradeep Gupta founded Axis My India (AMI) as a printing and publishing company in 1998. In 2013, AMI expanded into consumer research and election forecasting. Although a relatively unknown entity, AMI predicted several election results accurately. Gupta describes AMI’s...
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- September–October 2020
- Article
The Air War Versus the Ground Game: An Analysis of Multi-Channel Marketing in U.S. Presidential Elections
By: Lingling Zhang and Doug J. Chung
This study jointly examines the effects of television advertising and field operations in U.S. presidential elections, with the former referred to as the “air war” and the latter as the “ground game.” Specifically, the study focuses on how different campaign...
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- March 2020 (Revised January 2022)
- Case
Political Legitimacy and Global Capital Markets: Malaysia's 1MDB (A)
By: Meg Rithmire and Courtney Han
In May 2018, Malaysia’s 14th General Election saw a change of power that many thought they would never witness in their lifetimes. The political party that had ruled Malaysia for 60 year was kicked out of office by a 92 year-old challenger, Mahathir Mohamed, who had...
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- March 2020
- Article
The Politics of M&A Antitrust
By: Mihir N. Mehta, Suraj Srinivasan and Wanli Zhao
Antitrust regulators play a critical role in protecting market competition. We examine whether firms can use the political process to opportunistically influence antitrust reviews of corporate merger transactions. We exploit the fact that in some mergers, acquirers...
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- January 2020
- Supplement
Brexit: A Withdrawal Agreement? — Boris Johnson
By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
The UK was due to leave the EU in March 2019 after a referendum vote in June 2016. Following additional extensions and multiple failed attempts to reach an agreement with Parliament, Theresa May stepped down as Conservative Party leader and was replaced by Boris...
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- July 26, 2019
- Article
You're Probably Making Incorrect Assumptions about Your Opposing Political Party
By: Arthur C. Brooks
- February 2019 (Revised March 2021)
- Case
India: State Capacity and Unity in Diversity
By: Alberto Cavallo, Matthew Weinzierl and Robert Scherf
As 2018 drew to a close, India prepared to once again carry out the largest democratic exercise in human history, as in less than six months more than 850 million eligible voters would have the chance to choose their representatives to the Lok Sabha—the country’s lower...
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- January 2019 (Revised December 2020)
- Case
Angola Starts Now
By: Jeremy Friedman and Sophus A. Reinert
After five centuries of colonialism, four decades of civil war, an extended experiment with Marxism-Leninism, and nearly four decades of rule by a single man, José Eduardo Dos Santos, Angola finally has a chance to realize its enormous economic potential. A country...
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- 2019
- Article
Brokerage and Brokering: An Integrative Review and Organizing Framework for Third Party Influence
By: Nir Halevy, Eliran Halali and Julian Zlatev
Brokerage and brokering are pervasive and consequential organizational phenomena. Prevailing models underscore social structure and focus on the consequences that come from brokerage—occupying a bridging position between disconnected others in a network. By contrast,...
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- November 2018 (Revised June 2019)
- Case
The Rise of Populism and Italy's Electoral 'Tsunami'
By: Rawi Abdelal, Dante Roscini and Elena Corsi
Italy’s March 2018 elections led to a populist government that included the right-wing League and the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement. To respect their electoral promises, the two parties came up with a budget plan that provided for a public deficit at 2.4%, a...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Coordination and Bandwagon Effects of Candidate Rankings: Evidence from Runoff Elections
By: Riako Granzier, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
Candidates’ placements in polls or past elections can be powerful coordination devices for both parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French elections, we show that candidates who place first by only a small margin in the first round are more...
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