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      • Faculty Publications  (65)

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      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Change We Can’t Believe In: Distrust of Political Converts

      By: Julian J. Zlatev, Amos Schurr and Nir Halevy
      We propose and test three hypotheses regarding how people respond to political converts— individuals who switch their voting from one political party to another. Across two experiments, using behavioral and attitudinal measures of trust in two different countries, we...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Elections; Behavior; Attitudes; Trust
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      Zlatev, Julian J., Amos Schurr, and Nir Halevy. "Change We Can’t Believe In: Distrust of Political Converts." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-049, February 2023.
      • January 11, 2023
      • Article

      Russia and Ukraine Are Not Ready for Talks: But They Might Get There If Ukraine Keeps Winning

      By: James K. Sebenius and Michael Singh
      While there are many calls for negotiation between Ukraine and Russia to end their war, there does now (early 2023) not appear to be a zone of possible agreement (ZOPA), since each side's best no-agreement option ("BATNA") likely appears superior to any mutually...  View Details
      Keywords: Diplomacy; Agreements; Ukraine; International Relations; War; Negotiation; Ukraine; Russia
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      Sebenius, James K., and Michael Singh. "Russia and Ukraine Are Not Ready for Talks: But They Might Get There If Ukraine Keeps Winning." ForeignAffairs.com (January 11, 2023).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections

      By: Kevin Dano, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
      In theory, free and fair elections can improve the selection of politicians and incentivize them to exert effort. In practice, incumbency advantage and coordination issues may lead to the (re)election of bad politicians. We ask whether these two forces compound each...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Parties; Incumbent Politicians; Democracy; Political Elections; Competitive Advantage
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      Dano, Kevin, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec, and Vincent Pons. "Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30541, October 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Electoral Turnovers

      By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
      In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...  View Details
      Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement
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      Marx, Benjamin, Vincent Pons, and Vincent Rollet. "Electoral Turnovers." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29766, February 2022. (Revise and resubmit requested, Review of Economic Studies.)
      • January 2022
      • Background Note

      Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left

      By: William C. Kirby and Noah B. Truwit
      Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been mistrustful of entrepreneurs and the private sector that operates outside the government’s authority. In its first decades under Mao Zedong, the CCP...  View Details
      Keywords: Market Reform; Gdp; Government Administration; Government and Politics; Private Sector; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Economy; Globalized Economies and Regions; Entrepreneurship; Business and Government Relations; Globalized Markets and Industries; Social Issues; Society; Economic Growth; China
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      Kirby, William C., and Noah B. Truwit. "Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left." Harvard Business School Background Note 322-069, January 2022.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Negativity Spreads More Than Positivity on Twitter after Both Positive and Negative Political Situations

      By: Jonas Paul Schöne, Brian Parkinson and Amit Goldenberg
      What type of emotional language spreads further in political discourses on social media? Previous research has focused on situations that primarily elicited negative emotions, showing that negative language tended to spread further. The current project extends existing...  View Details
      Keywords: Negative Emotions; Emotional Influence; Emotional Resonance; Political Discourse; Emotion Contagion; Intergroup; Interactive Communication; Emotions; Government and Politics; Social Media
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      Schöne, Jonas Paul, Brian Parkinson, and Amit Goldenberg. "Negativity Spreads More Than Positivity on Twitter after Both Positive and Negative Political Situations." Affective Science 2, no. 4 (December 2021): 379–390.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts

      By: Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura
      Partisan perception affects the actions of professionals in the financial sector. Using a novel dataset linking credit rating analysts to party affiliations from voter records, we show that analysts who are not affiliated with the U.S. president’s party downward-adjust...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Affiliation; Credit Rating Agencies; Political Partisanship; Political Elections; Perception; Credit
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts." Journal of Finance 76, no. 6 (December 2021): 2805–2856.
      • November 2021
      • Article

      Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018

      By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
      U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote—an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.6-billion-observations panel dataset, 2008–2018, we find that the laws...  View Details
      Keywords: Voter ID Laws; Voter Turnout; Voting; Political Elections; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; United States
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      Cantoni, Enrico, and Vincent Pons. "Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018." Quarterly Journal of Economics 136, no. 4 (November 2021): 2615–2660.
      • October 2021 (Revised November 2022)
      • Case

      The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats, or Leveling Down?

      By: Vincent Pons, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella and Elena Corsi
      Since 1978, Spain had struggled to control unemployment. The country’s labor law was protective of employees hired long-term and companies used temporary contracts as buffers. In 2012, amid economic recession and a 23.6% unemployment rate, a center-right government of...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Labor Market; Unemployment; Recession; Globalized Markets and Industries; Government Legislation; International Relations; Working Conditions; Employment; Labor Unions; Contracts; Social Issues; Public Opinion; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Spain; European Union
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      Pons, Vincent, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella, and Elena Corsi. "The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats, or Leveling Down?" Harvard Business School Case 722-008, October 2021. (Revised November 2022.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Changing Role of Business in Society

      By: Michael E. Porter
      Business interaction with the U.S. government, historically based on securing industry or company special interests at the expense of the public good, has enabled and furthered government dysfunction. Gridlock within the American political system has precluded the...  View Details
      Keywords: Politics; Shared Value; Social Progress Index; Competitiveness; Walmart; BlackRock; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG; Transparency; Campaign Contributions; Campaign Finance; Lobbying; Revolving Door; Political Ideology; Political Parties; Political Partisanship; Government And Business; Government Innovation; Elections; Democracy; Capitalism; Stakeholder Capitalism; Shareholder Engagement; Competition; Strategy; Government and Politics; Society; Social Issues; Human Needs; Wealth and Poverty; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Corporate Accountability; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry; United States
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      Porter, Michael E. "The Changing Role of Business in Society." Working Paper, July 2021.
      • July 2021
      • Article

      Do Interactions with Candidates Increase Voter Support and Participation? Experimental Evidence from Italy

      By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
      We test whether politicians can use direct contact to reconnect with citizens, increase turnout, and win votes. During the 2014 Italian municipal elections, we randomly assigned 26,000 voters to receive visits from city council candidates, from canvassers supporting...  View Details
      Keywords: Campaigns; Candidates; Elections; Experiment; Political Parties; Turnout; Voting Behavior; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; Interpersonal Communication; Italy
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      Cantoni, Enrico, and Vincent Pons. "Do Interactions with Candidates Increase Voter Support and Participation? Experimental Evidence from Italy." Economics & Politics 33, no. 2 (July 2021): 379–402.
      • 2021
      • Article

      To Thine Own Self Be True? Incentive Problems in Personalized Law

      By: Jordan M. Barry, John William Hatfield and Scott Duke Kominers
      Recent years have seen an explosion of scholarship on “personalized law.” Commentators foresee a world in which regulators armed with big data and machine learning techniques determine the optimal legal rule for every regulated party, then instantaneously disseminate...  View Details
      Keywords: Personalized Law; Regulation; Regulatory Avoidance; Regulatory Arbitrage; Law And Economics; Law And Technology; Law And Artificial Intelligence; Futurism; Moral Hazard; Elicitation; Signaling; Privacy; Law; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Information Technology; AI and Machine Learning
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      Barry, Jordan M., John William Hatfield, and Scott Duke Kominers. "To Thine Own Self Be True? Incentive Problems in Personalized Law." Art. 2. William & Mary Law Review 62, no. 3 (2021).
      • March 2021 (Revised May 2021)
      • Case

      Capitalism and the Party-State: The People's Republic of China at 70

      By: Meg Rithmire and Courtney Han
      In 2019, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) turned seventy-years-old and became the longest active authoritarian regime in recent history. By then, China was the world’s second largest economy by GDP (after the United States), and a high-technology industrial...  View Details
      Keywords: Party-state; Economic Systems; Business and Government Relations; Economy; Society; International Relations; China
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      Rithmire, Meg, and Courtney Han. "Capitalism and the Party-State: The People's Republic of China at 70." Harvard Business School Case 721-040, March 2021. (Revised May 2021.)
      • November 2020
      • Case

      Axis My India

      By: Ananth Raman, Ann Winslow and Kairavi Dey
      Pradeep Gupta founded Axis My India (AMI) as a printing and publishing company in 1998. In 2013, AMI expanded into consumer research and election forecasting. Although a relatively unknown entity, AMI predicted several election results accurately. Gupta describes AMI’s...  View Details
      Keywords: Market Research; Operations; Management; Infrastructure; Logistics; Service Operations; Political Elections; Forecasting and Prediction; Asia; India
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      Raman, Ananth, Ann Winslow, and Kairavi Dey. "Axis My India." Harvard Business School Case 621-075, November 2020.
      • March 2020
      • Case

      China's Management of COVID-19 (A): People's War or Chernobyl Moment?

      By: Meg Rithmire and Courtney Han
      In late 2019, a novel respiratory virus appeared in a province in central China. Government officials in Wuhan, Hubei province had to respond to the new virus in the shadow of the 2002–2003 outbreak of SARS in China and within the context of the country’s public health...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Pandemics; Public Health; COVID-19 Pandemic; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Social Issues; Policy; Decision Making; China
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      Rithmire, Meg, and Courtney Han. "China's Management of COVID-19 (A): People's War or Chernobyl Moment?" Harvard Business School Case 720-035, March 2020.
      • March 2020 (Revised February 2023)
      • Case

      Political Legitimacy and Global Capital Markets: Malaysia's 1MDB (A)

      By: Meg Rithmire and Courtney Han
      In May 2018, Malaysia’s 14th General Election saw a change of power that many thought they would never witness in their lifetimes. The political party that had ruled Malaysia for 60 year was kicked out of office by a 92 year-old challenger, Mahathir Mohamed, who had...  View Details
      Keywords: Government Administration; Crime and Corruption; Financial Markets; Malaysia
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      Rithmire, Meg, and Courtney Han. "Political Legitimacy and Global Capital Markets: Malaysia's 1MDB (A)." Harvard Business School Case 720-030, March 2020. (Revised February 2023.)
      • March 2020
      • Article

      The Politics of M&A Antitrust

      By: Mihir N. Mehta, Suraj Srinivasan and Wanli Zhao
      Antitrust regulators play a critical role in protecting market competition. We examine whether firms can use the political process to opportunistically influence antitrust reviews of corporate merger transactions. We exploit the fact that in some mergers, acquirers...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Economy; Antitrust; FTC; DOJ; Mergers and Acquisitions; Government and Politics; Power and Influence
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      Mehta, Mihir N., Suraj Srinivasan, and Wanli Zhao. "The Politics of M&A Antitrust." Journal of Accounting Research 58, no. 1 (March 2020): 5–53. (Previously circulated under title "Political Influence and Merger Antitrust Reviews.")
      • January 2020
      • Supplement

      Brexit: A Withdrawal Agreement? — Boris Johnson

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      The UK was due to leave the EU in March 2019 after a referendum vote in June 2016. Following additional extensions and multiple failed attempts to reach an agreement with Parliament, Theresa May stepped down as Conservative Party leader and was replaced by Boris...  View Details
      Keywords: Brexit; Government and Politics; International Relations; United Kingdom; European Union
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "Brexit: A Withdrawal Agreement? — Boris Johnson." Harvard Business School Supplement 320-081, January 2020.
      • July 26, 2019
      • Article

      You're Probably Making Incorrect Assumptions about Your Opposing Political Party

      By: Arthur C. Brooks
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      Brooks, Arthur C. "You're Probably Making Incorrect Assumptions about Your Opposing Political Party." Washington Post, On Leadership (July 26, 2019).
      • February 2019 (Revised March 2021)
      • Case

      India: State Capacity and Unity in Diversity

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Matthew Weinzierl and Robert Scherf
      As 2018 drew to a close, India prepared to once again carry out the largest democratic exercise in human history, as in less than six months more than 850 million eligible voters would have the chance to choose their representatives to the Lok Sabha—the country’s lower...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Elections; Government and Politics; Leadership; Public Opinion; India
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Matthew Weinzierl, and Robert Scherf. "India: State Capacity and Unity in Diversity." Harvard Business School Case 719-061, February 2019. (Revised March 2021.)
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