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- 2022
- Working Paper
Turning Away From the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil
By: Paula Rettl
How does economic globalization affect vote choices? Conventional wisdom holds that voters who lose from economic integration support parties that propose to expand the welfare state. I argue that a key scope condition of this causal relationship is expectations about...
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- 2023
- Book
Suharto's Cold War: Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and the World
By: Mattias Fibiger
After the murder of senior generals in the Indonesian army by elements of the country's communist party in 1965, General Suharto orchestrated the mass killing of some half a million leftists and fellow travelers. But his ambitions spanned far beyond perpetrating a...
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- Article
Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements
By: Miguel García-Sánchez, Aila M. Matanock and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz
To what extent are legislators, responsible for the implementation of many peace agreements, responsive to citizens’ preferences? Examining the 2016 Colombian peace agreement, we embed an experiment in the 2019 wave of a survey of all the members of Congress. We inform...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Change We Can’t Believe In: Distrust of Political Converts
By: Julian J. Zlatev, Amos Schurr and Nir Halevy
We propose and test three hypotheses regarding how people respond to political converts— individuals who switch their voting from one political party to another. Across two experiments, using behavioral and attitudinal measures of trust in two different countries, we...
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- January 11, 2023
- Article
Russia and Ukraine Are Not Ready for Talks: But They Might Get There If Ukraine Keeps Winning
By: James K. Sebenius and Michael Singh
While there are many calls for negotiation between Ukraine and Russia to end their war, there does now (early 2023) not appear to be a zone of possible agreement (ZOPA), since each side's best no-agreement option ("BATNA") likely appears superior to any mutually...
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Keywords:
Diplomacy;
Agreements;
Ukraine;
International Relations;
War;
Negotiation;
Ukraine;
Russia
- December 2022 (Revised June 2023)
- Case
Hacking the U.S. Election: Russia's Misinformation Campaign
By: Shikhar Ghosh
The case discusses the relatively low technology approach used by Russia to influence the U.S. Presidential Election in 2016. Although political parties manipulating the media was not a new phenomenon, the Russians ran a broad, well-financed, and sophisticated social...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections
By: Kevin Dano, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
In theory, free and fair elections can improve the selection of politicians and incentivize them to exert effort. In practice, incumbency advantage and coordination issues may lead to the (re)election of bad politicians. We ask whether these two forces compound each...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Hot Takes: The Effect of Wildfires on Support for Green Political Platforms in Brazil
By: Silvia Pianta and Paula Rettl
As the climate crisis worsens, it becomes increasingly important to understand how voters respond to first-hand experience of natural disasters. Conventional wisdom holds that exposure to natural disasters fosters environmental concern, thereby increasing support for...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Geographies of Discontent: How Public Service Deprivation Increased Far-Right Support in Italy
By: Simone Cremaschi, Paula Rettl, Marco Cappelluti and Catherine E. De Vries
Electoral support for far-right parties is often linked to specific geographies of discontent. We argue that public service deprivation, defined as poor access to public services at the local level, helps explain these patterns in far-right support. Public service...
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Keywords:
Public Service;
Politics;
Voting Behavior;
Voting;
Voters' Interests;
Electoral Behavior;
Elections;
Election Outcomes;
Voting Trusts;
Public Sector;
Government and Politics;
Political Elections;
Government Administration;
Power and Influence;
Social and Collaborative Networks;
Situation or Environment;
Public Relations Industry;
Europe;
Italy
- 2022
- Working Paper
Electoral Turnovers
By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...
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- January 2022
- Background Note
Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left
By: William C. Kirby and Noah B. Truwit
Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been mistrustful of entrepreneurs and the private sector that operates outside the government’s authority. In its first decades under Mao Zedong, the CCP...
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Keywords:
Market Reform;
Gdp;
Government Administration;
Government and Politics;
Private Sector;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Economy;
Globalized Economies and Regions;
Entrepreneurship;
Business and Government Relations;
Globalized Markets and Industries;
Social Issues;
Society;
Economic Growth;
China
- December 2021
- Article
Negativity Spreads More Than Positivity on Twitter after Both Positive and Negative Political Situations
By: Jonas Paul Schöne, Brian Parkinson and Amit Goldenberg
What type of emotional language spreads further in political discourses on social media? Previous research has focused on situations that primarily elicited negative emotions, showing that negative language tended to spread further. The current project extends existing...
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- December 2021
- Article
Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts
By: Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura
Partisan perception affects the actions of professionals in the financial sector. Using a novel dataset linking credit rating analysts to party affiliations from voter records, we show that analysts who are not affiliated with the U.S. president’s party downward-adjust...
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- November 2021
- Article
Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018
By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote—an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.6-billion-observations panel dataset, 2008–2018, we find that the laws...
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- October 2021 (Revised November 2022)
- Case
The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats, or Leveling Down?
By: Vincent Pons, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella and Elena Corsi
Since 1978, Spain had struggled to control unemployment. The country’s labor law was protective of employees hired long-term and companies used temporary contracts as buffers. In 2012, amid economic recession and a 23.6% unemployment rate, a center-right government of...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Labor Market;
Unemployment;
Recession;
Globalized Markets and Industries;
Government Legislation;
International Relations;
Working Conditions;
Employment;
Labor Unions;
Contracts;
Social Issues;
Public Opinion;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Spain;
European Union
- 2021
- Working Paper
The Changing Role of Business in Society
Business interaction with the U.S. government, historically based on securing industry or company special interests at the expense of the public good, has enabled and furthered government dysfunction. Gridlock within the American political system has precluded the...
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Keywords:
Politics;
Shared Value;
Social Progress Index;
Competitiveness;
Walmart;
BlackRock;
ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance;
ESG;
Transparency;
Campaign Contributions;
Campaign Finance;
Lobbying;
Revolving Door;
Political Ideology;
Political Parties;
Political Partisanship;
Government And Business;
Government Innovation;
Elections;
Democracy;
Capitalism;
Stakeholder Capitalism;
Shareholder Engagement;
Competition;
Strategy;
Government and Politics;
Society;
Social Issues;
Human Needs;
Wealth and Poverty;
Business and Community Relations;
Business and Government Relations;
Corporate Accountability;
Financial Services Industry;
Banking Industry;
United States
- July 2021
- Article
Do Interactions with Candidates Increase Voter Support and Participation? Experimental Evidence from Italy
By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
We test whether politicians can use direct contact to reconnect with citizens, increase turnout, and win votes. During the 2014 Italian municipal elections, we randomly assigned 26,000 voters to receive visits from city council candidates, from canvassers supporting...
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- 2021
- Article
To Thine Own Self Be True? Incentive Problems in Personalized Law
By: Jordan M. Barry, John William Hatfield and Scott Duke Kominers
Recent years have seen an explosion of scholarship on “personalized law.” Commentators foresee a world in which regulators armed with big data and machine learning techniques determine the optimal legal rule for every regulated party, then instantaneously disseminate...
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Keywords:
Personalized Law;
Regulation;
Regulatory Avoidance;
Regulatory Arbitrage;
Law And Economics;
Law And Technology;
Law And Artificial Intelligence;
Futurism;
Moral Hazard;
Elicitation;
Signaling;
Privacy;
Law;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Information Technology;
AI and Machine Learning
- March 2021 (Revised May 2021)
- Case
Capitalism and the Party-State: The People's Republic of China at 70
By: Meg Rithmire and Courtney Han
In 2019, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) turned seventy-years-old and became the longest active authoritarian regime in recent history. By then, China was the world’s second largest economy by GDP (after the United States), and a high-technology industrial...
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- November 2020
- Case
Axis My India
By: Ananth Raman, Ann Winslow and Kairavi Dey
Pradeep Gupta founded Axis My India (AMI) as a printing and publishing company in 1998. In 2013, AMI expanded into consumer research and election forecasting. Although a relatively unknown entity, AMI predicted several election results accurately. Gupta describes AMI’s...
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