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Publications

Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (576)
      • Faculty Publications  (73)

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Turning Away From the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil

      By: Paula Rettl
      How does economic globalization affect vote choices? Conventional wisdom holds that voters who lose from economic integration support parties that propose to expand the welfare state. I argue that a key scope condition of this causal relationship is expectations about...  View Details
      Keywords: Economic Globalization; Globalized Economies; Government Administration; Economics; Globalization; Globalized Economies and Regions; Voting; Brazil; Latin America
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      Rettl, Paula. "Turning Away From the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • 2023
      • Book

      Suharto's Cold War: Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and the World

      By: Mattias Fibiger
      After the murder of senior generals in the Indonesian army by elements of the country's communist party in 1965, General Suharto orchestrated the mass killing of some half a million leftists and fellow travelers. But his ambitions spanned far beyond perpetrating a...  View Details
      Keywords: Indonesia; Cold War; Political Economy; Foreign Aid; International Investment; International Relations; International Finance; History; War; Economic Systems; Government and Politics; Indonesia; Southeast Asia
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      Fibiger, Mattias. Suharto's Cold War: Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and the World. New York: Oxford University Press, 2023.
      • Article

      Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements

      By: Miguel García-Sánchez, Aila M. Matanock and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz
      To what extent are legislators, responsible for the implementation of many peace agreements, responsive to citizens’ preferences? Examining the 2016 Colombian peace agreement, we embed an experiment in the 2019 wave of a survey of all the members of Congress. We inform...  View Details
      Keywords: Legislation; Legislators; Peace Process; Agreements; Govenment; Voters' Interests; Governance; Government and Politics; Voting; Policy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Latin America; Colombia
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      García-Sánchez, Miguel, Aila M. Matanock, and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz. "Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements." Journal of Conflict Resolution 67, no. 5 (May 2023): 893–922.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Change We Can’t Believe In: Distrust of Political Converts

      By: Julian J. Zlatev, Amos Schurr and Nir Halevy
      We propose and test three hypotheses regarding how people respond to political converts— individuals who switch their voting from one political party to another. Across two experiments, using behavioral and attitudinal measures of trust in two different countries, we...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Elections; Behavior; Attitudes; Trust
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      Zlatev, Julian J., Amos Schurr, and Nir Halevy. "Change We Can’t Believe In: Distrust of Political Converts." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-049, February 2023.
      • January 11, 2023
      • Article

      Russia and Ukraine Are Not Ready for Talks: But They Might Get There If Ukraine Keeps Winning

      By: James K. Sebenius and Michael Singh
      While there are many calls for negotiation between Ukraine and Russia to end their war, there does now (early 2023) not appear to be a zone of possible agreement (ZOPA), since each side's best no-agreement option ("BATNA") likely appears superior to any mutually...  View Details
      Keywords: Diplomacy; Agreements; Ukraine; International Relations; War; Negotiation; Ukraine; Russia
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      Sebenius, James K., and Michael Singh. "Russia and Ukraine Are Not Ready for Talks: But They Might Get There If Ukraine Keeps Winning." ForeignAffairs.com (January 11, 2023).
      • December 2022 (Revised June 2023)
      • Case

      Hacking the U.S. Election: Russia's Misinformation Campaign

      By: Shikhar Ghosh
      The case discusses the relatively low technology approach used by Russia to influence the U.S. Presidential Election in 2016. Although political parties manipulating the media was not a new phenomenon, the Russians ran a broad, well-financed, and sophisticated social...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Elections; International Relations; Social Media; Power and Influence; Information; Russia; United States
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      Ghosh, Shikhar. "Hacking the U.S. Election: Russia's Misinformation Campaign." Harvard Business School Case 823-043, December 2022. (Revised June 2023.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections

      By: Kevin Dano, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
      In theory, free and fair elections can improve the selection of politicians and incentivize them to exert effort. In practice, incumbency advantage and coordination issues may lead to the (re)election of bad politicians. We ask whether these two forces compound each...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Parties; Incumbent Politicians; Democracy; Political Elections; Competitive Advantage
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      Dano, Kevin, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec, and Vincent Pons. "Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30541, October 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Hot Takes: The Effect of Wildfires on Support for Green Political Platforms in Brazil

      By: Silvia Pianta and Paula Rettl
      As the climate crisis worsens, it becomes increasingly important to understand how voters respond to first-hand experience of natural disasters. Conventional wisdom holds that exposure to natural disasters fosters environmental concern, thereby increasing support for...  View Details
      Keywords: Politics; Voting Behavior; Voter Mobilization; Voters' Interests; Green Energy; Green Technology; Political Elections; Voting; Government and Politics; Climate Change; Pollution; Environmental Sustainability; Latin America; Brazil
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      Pianta, Silvia, and Paula Rettl. "Hot Takes: The Effect of Wildfires on Support for Green Political Platforms in Brazil." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Geographies of Discontent: How Public Service Deprivation Increased Far-Right Support in Italy

      By: Simone Cremaschi, Paula Rettl, Marco Cappelluti and Catherine E. De Vries
      Electoral support for far-right parties is often linked to specific geographies of discontent. We argue that public service deprivation, defined as poor access to public services at the local level, helps explain these patterns in far-right support. Public service...  View Details
      Keywords: Public Service; Politics; Voting Behavior; Voting; Voters' Interests; Electoral Behavior; Elections; Election Outcomes; Voting Trusts; Public Sector; Government and Politics; Political Elections; Government Administration; Power and Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Situation or Environment; Public Relations Industry; Europe; Italy
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      Cremaschi, Simone, Paula Rettl, Marco Cappelluti, and Catherine E. De Vries. "Geographies of Discontent: How Public Service Deprivation Increased Far-Right Support in Italy." Working Paper, July 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Electoral Turnovers

      By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
      In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...  View Details
      Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement
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      Marx, Benjamin, Vincent Pons, and Vincent Rollet. "Electoral Turnovers." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29766, February 2022. (Revise and resubmit requested, Review of Economic Studies.)
      • January 2022
      • Background Note

      Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left

      By: William C. Kirby and Noah B. Truwit
      Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been mistrustful of entrepreneurs and the private sector that operates outside the government’s authority. In its first decades under Mao Zedong, the CCP...  View Details
      Keywords: Market Reform; Gdp; Government Administration; Government and Politics; Private Sector; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Economy; Globalized Economies and Regions; Entrepreneurship; Business and Government Relations; Globalized Markets and Industries; Social Issues; Society; Economic Growth; China
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      Kirby, William C., and Noah B. Truwit. "Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left." Harvard Business School Background Note 322-069, January 2022.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Negativity Spreads More Than Positivity on Twitter after Both Positive and Negative Political Situations

      By: Jonas Paul Schöne, Brian Parkinson and Amit Goldenberg
      What type of emotional language spreads further in political discourses on social media? Previous research has focused on situations that primarily elicited negative emotions, showing that negative language tended to spread further. The current project extends existing...  View Details
      Keywords: Negative Emotions; Emotional Influence; Emotional Resonance; Political Discourse; Emotion Contagion; Intergroup; Interactive Communication; Emotions; Government and Politics; Social Media
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      Schöne, Jonas Paul, Brian Parkinson, and Amit Goldenberg. "Negativity Spreads More Than Positivity on Twitter after Both Positive and Negative Political Situations." Affective Science 2, no. 4 (December 2021): 379–390.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts

      By: Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura
      Partisan perception affects the actions of professionals in the financial sector. Using a novel dataset linking credit rating analysts to party affiliations from voter records, we show that analysts who are not affiliated with the U.S. president’s party downward-adjust...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Affiliation; Credit Rating Agencies; Political Partisanship; Political Elections; Perception; Credit
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts." Journal of Finance 76, no. 6 (December 2021): 2805–2856.
      • November 2021
      • Article

      Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018

      By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
      U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote—an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.6-billion-observations panel dataset, 2008–2018, we find that the laws...  View Details
      Keywords: Voter ID Laws; Voter Turnout; Voting; Political Elections; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; United States
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      Cantoni, Enrico, and Vincent Pons. "Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018." Quarterly Journal of Economics 136, no. 4 (November 2021): 2615–2660.
      • October 2021 (Revised November 2022)
      • Case

      The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats, or Leveling Down?

      By: Vincent Pons, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella and Elena Corsi
      Since 1978, Spain had struggled to control unemployment. The country’s labor law was protective of employees hired long-term and companies used temporary contracts as buffers. In 2012, amid economic recession and a 23.6% unemployment rate, a center-right government of...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Labor Market; Unemployment; Recession; Globalized Markets and Industries; Government Legislation; International Relations; Working Conditions; Employment; Labor Unions; Contracts; Social Issues; Public Opinion; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Spain; European Union
      Citation
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      Pons, Vincent, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella, and Elena Corsi. "The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats, or Leveling Down?" Harvard Business School Case 722-008, October 2021. (Revised November 2022.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Changing Role of Business in Society

      By: Michael E. Porter
      Business interaction with the U.S. government, historically based on securing industry or company special interests at the expense of the public good, has enabled and furthered government dysfunction. Gridlock within the American political system has precluded the...  View Details
      Keywords: Politics; Shared Value; Social Progress Index; Competitiveness; Walmart; BlackRock; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG; Transparency; Campaign Contributions; Campaign Finance; Lobbying; Revolving Door; Political Ideology; Political Parties; Political Partisanship; Government And Business; Government Innovation; Elections; Democracy; Capitalism; Stakeholder Capitalism; Shareholder Engagement; Competition; Strategy; Government and Politics; Society; Social Issues; Human Needs; Wealth and Poverty; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Corporate Accountability; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry; United States
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      Porter, Michael E. "The Changing Role of Business in Society." Working Paper, July 2021.
      • July 2021
      • Article

      Do Interactions with Candidates Increase Voter Support and Participation? Experimental Evidence from Italy

      By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
      We test whether politicians can use direct contact to reconnect with citizens, increase turnout, and win votes. During the 2014 Italian municipal elections, we randomly assigned 26,000 voters to receive visits from city council candidates, from canvassers supporting...  View Details
      Keywords: Campaigns; Candidates; Elections; Experiment; Political Parties; Turnout; Voting Behavior; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; Interpersonal Communication; Italy
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      Cantoni, Enrico, and Vincent Pons. "Do Interactions with Candidates Increase Voter Support and Participation? Experimental Evidence from Italy." Economics & Politics 33, no. 2 (July 2021): 379–402.
      • 2021
      • Article

      To Thine Own Self Be True? Incentive Problems in Personalized Law

      By: Jordan M. Barry, John William Hatfield and Scott Duke Kominers
      Recent years have seen an explosion of scholarship on “personalized law.” Commentators foresee a world in which regulators armed with big data and machine learning techniques determine the optimal legal rule for every regulated party, then instantaneously disseminate...  View Details
      Keywords: Personalized Law; Regulation; Regulatory Avoidance; Regulatory Arbitrage; Law And Economics; Law And Technology; Law And Artificial Intelligence; Futurism; Moral Hazard; Elicitation; Signaling; Privacy; Law; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Information Technology; AI and Machine Learning
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      Barry, Jordan M., John William Hatfield, and Scott Duke Kominers. "To Thine Own Self Be True? Incentive Problems in Personalized Law." Art. 2. William & Mary Law Review 62, no. 3 (2021).
      • March 2021 (Revised May 2021)
      • Case

      Capitalism and the Party-State: The People's Republic of China at 70

      By: Meg Rithmire and Courtney Han
      In 2019, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) turned seventy-years-old and became the longest active authoritarian regime in recent history. By then, China was the world’s second largest economy by GDP (after the United States), and a high-technology industrial...  View Details
      Keywords: Party-state; Economic Systems; Business and Government Relations; Economy; Society; International Relations; China
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      Rithmire, Meg, and Courtney Han. "Capitalism and the Party-State: The People's Republic of China at 70." Harvard Business School Case 721-040, March 2021. (Revised May 2021.)
      • November 2020
      • Case

      Axis My India

      By: Ananth Raman, Ann Winslow and Kairavi Dey
      Pradeep Gupta founded Axis My India (AMI) as a printing and publishing company in 1998. In 2013, AMI expanded into consumer research and election forecasting. Although a relatively unknown entity, AMI predicted several election results accurately. Gupta describes AMI’s...  View Details
      Keywords: Market Research; Operations; Management; Infrastructure; Logistics; Service Operations; Political Elections; Forecasting and Prediction; Asia; India
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      Raman, Ananth, Ann Winslow, and Kairavi Dey. "Axis My India." Harvard Business School Case 621-075, November 2020.
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