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- 2023
- Working Paper
Geographies of Discontent: Public Service Deprivation and the Rise of the Far Right in Italy
By: Simone Cremaschi, Paula Rettl, Marco Cappelluti and Catherine E. De Vries
Electoral support for far-right parties is often linked to geographies of discontent.
We argue that public service deprivation, defined as reduced access to public services
at the local level, plays an important role in explaining these patterns. By exploiting
an...
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Keywords:
Election Outcomes;
Electoral Behavior;
Political Affiliation;
Political Culture;
Public Service;
Political Elections;
Policy;
Government and Politics;
Surveys;
Geographic Location;
Immigration;
Europe;
Italy
Cremaschi, Simone, Paula Rettl, Marco Cappelluti, and Catherine E. De Vries. "Geographies of Discontent: Public Service Deprivation and the Rise of the Far Right in Italy." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-024, November 2023.
- October 2023
- Article
Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates
By: Riako Granzier, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
Candidates’ placements in polls or past elections can be powerful coordination devices for both parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French elections, we show that candidates who place first by only a small margin in the first round are more...
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Keywords:
Strategic Voting;
Coordination;
Bandwagon Effect;
Regression Discontinuity Design;
French Elections;
Voting;
Political Elections;
Behavior;
France
Granzier, Riako, Vincent Pons, and Clémence Tricaud. "Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 15, no. 4 (October 2023): 177–217.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Words Can Hurt: How Political Communication Can Change the Pace of an Epidemic
By: Jessica Gagete-Miranda, Lucas Argentieri Mariani and Paula Rettl
While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as
to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. Using
experimental and observational data from Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic, we
study how leader...
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Keywords:
Elites;
Public Engagement;
Politics;
Political Affiliation;
Political Campaigns;
Political Influence;
Political Leadership;
Political Economy;
Survey Research;
COVID-19;
COVID-19 Pandemic;
COVID;
Cognitive Psychology;
Cognitive Biases;
Political Elections;
Voting;
Power and Influence;
Identity;
Behavior;
Latin America;
Brazil
Gagete-Miranda, Jessica, Lucas Argentieri Mariani, and Paula Rettl. "Words Can Hurt: How Political Communication Can Change the Pace of an Epidemic." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-022, October 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms
By: Silvia Pianta and Paula Rettl
The emergence of green constituencies enables climate action. Conventional wisdom holds
that first-hand experience with natural disasters helps build green coalitions by increasing
the salience of the costs of environmental degradation. Focusing on fires in Brazil,...
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Keywords:
Climate Impact;
Politics;
Environmental Issues;
Environmental Protection;
Economic Analysis;
Economic Behavior;
Economic Geography;
Economy;
Economics;
Climate Change;
Environmental Management;
Political Elections;
Natural Disasters;
Green Technology;
Environmental Sustainability;
Latin America;
Brazil
Pianta, Silvia, and Paula Rettl. "Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-023, September 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections
By: Rafael Di Tella, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
A key tenet of representative democracy is that politicians' discourse and policies should follow voters' preferences. In the median voter theorem, this outcome emerges as candidates strategically adjust their platform to get closer to their opponent. Despite its...
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Di Tella, Rafael, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec, and Vincent Pons. "Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31503, July 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Nature, Sources, and Consequences of Citizens’ Anti-establishment Sentiments
By: Loreto Cox and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz
While recent studies examine anti-establishment parties and candidates, fewer focus
on citizens’ anti-establishment sentiments, which we define as an intense and angry
animosity toward political elites and distrust of political parties. What drives these
sentiments?...
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Keywords:
Political Parties;
Political Instability;
Democracy;
Elections;
Electoral Behavior;
Election Outcomes;
Ideology;
Political Elections;
Policy;
Governance;
Government and Politics;
Social Issues;
Society;
Perception;
Crime and Corruption;
Latin America;
South America;
Colombia;
Peru
Cox, Loreto, and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz. "The Nature, Sources, and Consequences of Citizens’ Anti-establishment Sentiments." Working Paper, July 2023.
- June 2023
- Case
The Business of Campaigns
By: Vincent Pons and Mel Martin
In 2022, the U.S. Congress examined the Democracy Is Strengthened by Casting Light on Spending in Elections (DISCLOSE) Act, the latest in a long series of campaign finance reforms. According to its authors, the law would be the “most consequential overhaul of federal...
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Keywords:
Political Elections;
Government Legislation;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Business and Government Relations;
United States
Pons, Vincent, and Mel Martin. "The Business of Campaigns." Harvard Business School Case 723-039, June 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act
By: Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini and Cecilia Testa
The 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) paved the road to Black empowerment. How did
southern whites respond? Leveraging newly digitized data on county-level voter registration
rates by race between 1956 and 1980, and exploiting pre-determined variation
in exposure to the...
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Bernini, Andrea, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini, and Cecilia Testa. "Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-075, June 2023. (Revise and resubmit at the Journal of Political Economy. Also available on Vox EU. Featured on HBS Working Knowledge.)
- 2023
- Chapter
Economic Globalization and Populism in Latin America and Beyond
By: Paula Rettl
Both populism and economic globalization have been on the rise in the last decades, motivating increasing scholarly attention to the phenomena and their relationship (see Rodrik 2021 for a recent review). However, the relationship between populism and economic...
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Keywords:
Populism;
Economic Globalization;
Latin America;
Economy;
Macroeconomics;
Economics;
Globalized Economies and Regions;
Globalization;
Political Elections;
Government and Politics;
Finance;
Geographic Location;
Latin America
Rettl, Paula. "Economic Globalization and Populism in Latin America and Beyond." Chap. 5 in Right-Wing Populism in Latin America and Beyond, edited by Anthony W. Pereira, 1967–1987. Routledge, 2023.
- May 29, 2023
- Article
Putin Wants You to Think He’s an Anti-Woke Crusader
By: Jeremy Friedman
Friedman, Jeremy. "Putin Wants You to Think He’s an Anti-Woke Crusader." ForeignPolicy.com (May 29, 2023).
- May 2023
- Article
How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates
By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the...
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Keywords:
Political Debates;
TV Debates;
Voting;
Political Elections;
Decision Choices and Conditions
Le Pennec, Caroline, and Vincent Pons. "How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138 (May 2023): 703–767.
- May 2023
- Article
Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation
By: Elisabeth Kempf, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer and Margarita Tsoutsoura
Does investors' political ideology shape international capital allocation? We provide evidence from two settings—syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds—to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by...
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Keywords:
Capital Flows;
Syndicated Loans;
Mutual Funds;
Partisanship;
Polarization;
Elections;
Political Ideology;
Banks and Banking;
Institutional Investing;
Behavioral Finance;
Decision Choices and Conditions
Kempf, Elisabeth, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation." Journal of Financial Economics 148, no. 2 (May 2023): 150–173.
- February 2023 (Revised June 2023)
- Case
Doing Business in São Paulo, Brazil
By: Hise O. Gibson, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Ruth Costas and Pedro Levindo
The case uses the example of a large investment made by French retail group Carrefour in Brazil to discuss the opportunities and challenges of doing business in the country. It gives readers an overview of Brazil’s economic transformation since its colonial years until...
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Keywords:
Business Cycles;
Development Economics;
Developing Countries and Economies;
Economic Growth;
Economic Sectors;
Economy;
Macroeconomics;
Business History;
Brazil;
Latin America
Gibson, Hise O., Leonard A. Schlesinger, Ruth Costas, and Pedro Levindo. "Doing Business in São Paulo, Brazil." Harvard Business School Case 323-084, February 2023. (Revised June 2023.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
Change We Can’t Believe In: Distrust of Political Converts
By: Julian J. Zlatev, Amos Schurr and Nir Halevy
We propose and test three hypotheses regarding how people respond to political converts— individuals who switch their voting from one political party to another. Across two experiments, using behavioral and attitudinal measures of trust in two different countries, we...
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Zlatev, Julian J., Amos Schurr, and Nir Halevy. "Change We Can’t Believe In: Distrust of Political Converts." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-049, February 2023.
- December 2022 (Revised June 2023)
- Case
Hacking the U.S. Election: Russia's Misinformation Campaign
By: Shikhar Ghosh
The case discusses the relatively low technology approach used by Russia to influence the U.S. Presidential Election in 2016. Although political parties manipulating the media was not a new phenomenon, the Russians ran a broad, well-financed, and sophisticated social...
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Keywords:
Political Elections;
International Relations;
Social Media;
Power and Influence;
Information;
Russia;
United States
Ghosh, Shikhar. "Hacking the U.S. Election: Russia's Misinformation Campaign." Harvard Business School Case 823-043, December 2022. (Revised June 2023.)
- 2022
- Article
Leadership & Overconfidence
By: Don A Moore and Max H. Bazerman
Expressions of confidence can give leaders credibility. In the political realm, they can earn votes and public approval for decisions made in office. Such support is justified when the confidence displayed is truly a sign that a leader (whether a candidate or an...
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Moore, Don A., and Max H. Bazerman. "Leadership & Overconfidence." Behavioral Science & Policy 8, no. 2 (2022): 59–69.
- October 2022 (Revised November 2022)
- Case
The Commission on Presidential Debates
By: Boris Groysberg, Alexis Lefort, Kerry Herman and Joshua Groysberg
The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) has organized the presidential and vice-presidential debates in the United States since 1988. In the spring of 2022, the Republican National Committee threatened to bar their nominees from participating in any CPD-sponsored...
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Groysberg, Boris, Alexis Lefort, Kerry Herman, and Joshua Groysberg. "The Commission on Presidential Debates." Harvard Business School Case 423-032, October 2022. (Revised November 2022.)
- 2022
- Working Paper
Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections
By: Kevin Dano, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
In theory, free and fair elections can improve the selection of politicians and incentivize them to exert effort. In practice, incumbency advantage and coordination issues may lead to the (re)election of bad politicians. We ask whether these two forces compound each...
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Keywords:
Political Parties;
Incumbent Politicians;
Democracy;
Political Elections;
Competitive Advantage
Dano, Kevin, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec, and Vincent Pons. "Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30541, October 2022.
- September 2022
- Case
Deciding When to Engage on Societal Issues
By: Hubert Joly and Amram Migdal
This case provides brief descriptions of 18 examples of corporate leaders confronting questions of whether and how to engage with societal issues, including social, political, and environmental issues. Social issues include COVID-19; social and racial justice;...
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Keywords:
Political Issues;
Social Justice;
Racial Justice;
Environmental Issues;
Social Issues;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Values and Beliefs
Joly, Hubert, and Amram Migdal. "Deciding When to Engage on Societal Issues." Harvard Business School Case 523-045, September 2022.
- Article
All Eyes on Them: A Field Experiment on Citizen Oversight and Electoral Integrity
By: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz and Mateo Montenegro
Can information and communication technologies help citizens monitor their elections? We analyze a large-scale field experiment designed to answer this question in Colombia. We leveraged Facebook advertisements sent to over 4 million potential voters to encourage...
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Keywords:
Social Influence;
Electoral Behavior;
Election Outcomes;
Economics;
Economy;
Governance;
Government and Politics;
Social Media;
Social Marketing;
Society;
Political Elections;
Advertising
Garbiras-Díaz, Natalia, and Mateo Montenegro. "All Eyes on Them: A Field Experiment on Citizen Oversight and Electoral Integrity." American Economic Review 112, no. 8 (August 2022): 2631–2668.