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- 2025
- Working Paper
Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement learning (RL) offers potential for optimizing sequences of customer interactions by modeling the relationships
between customer states, company actions, and long-term value. However, its practical implementation often faces significant
challenges.... View Details
Keywords: Dynamic Policy; Deep Reinforcement Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Representation Learning; Dynamic Difficulty Adjustment; Latent Variable Models
Ma, Liangzong, Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza, and Ayelet Israeli. "Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-037, February 2025.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Behavioral Attenuation
By: Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea and Jeffrey Yang
We report a large-scale examination of behavioral attenuation: due to information-processing constraints, the elasticity of people’s decisions with respect to economic fundamentals is generally too small. We implement more than 30 experiments, 20 of which were... View Details
Graeber, Thomas, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea, and Jeffrey Yang. "Behavioral Attenuation." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32973, September 2024.
- 2024
- Article
Learning Under Random Distributional Shifts
By: Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson and Dominik Rothenhäusler
Algorithmic assignment of refugees and asylum seekers to locations within host
countries has gained attention in recent years, with implementations in the U.S.
and Switzerland. These approaches use data on past arrivals to generate machine
learning models that can... View Details
Bansak, Kirk, Elisabeth Paulson, and Dominik Rothenhäusler. "Learning Under Random Distributional Shifts." Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 27th (2024).
- September 2024
- Article
Political Elite Cues and Attitude Formation in Post-Conflict Contexts
By: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Miguel Garcia-Sanchez and Aila M. Matanock
Civil conflicts typically end with negotiated settlements, but many settlements fail, often during the implementation stage when average citizens have increasing influence. Citizens sometimes evaluate peace agreements by voting on referendums or the negotiating... View Details
Keywords: Civil Unrest; Peace Process; Political Leadership; Peace; Politics; Policy Change; Policy; Government and Politics; Government Administration; Governance; Political Elections; Civil Society or Community; Negotiation; Negotiation Participants; Public Relations Industry; Colombia; Latin America; South America
Garbiras-Díaz, Natalia, Miguel Garcia-Sanchez, and Aila M. Matanock. "Political Elite Cues and Attitude Formation in Post-Conflict Contexts." Journal of Peace Research 61, no. 5 (September 2024): 874–890.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Webmunk: A New Tool for Studying Online Behavior and Digital Platforms
By: Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin and Chris Karr
Understanding the behavior of users online is important for researchers, policymakers, and private companies alike. But observing online behavior and conducting experiments is difficult without direct access to the user base and software of technology companies. We... View Details
Farronato, Chiara, Andrey Fradkin, and Chris Karr. "Webmunk: A New Tool for Studying Online Behavior and Digital Platforms." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32694, July 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Personalization and Targeting: How to Experiment, Learn & Optimize
By: Aurelie Lemmens, Jason M.T. Roos, Sebastian Gabel, Eva Ascarza, Hernan Bruno, Elea McDonnell Feit, Brett Gordon, Ayelet Israeli, Carl F. Mela and Oded Netzer
Personalization has become the heartbeat of modern marketing. Advances in causal inference and machine learning enable companies to understand how the same marketing action can impact the choices of individual customers differently. This article provides an academic... View Details
Keywords: Personalization; Targeting; Experiments; Observational Studies; Policy Implementation; Policy Evaluation; Customization and Personalization; Marketing Strategy; AI and Machine Learning
Lemmens, Aurelie, Jason M.T. Roos, Sebastian Gabel, Eva Ascarza, Hernan Bruno, Elea McDonnell Feit, Brett Gordon, Ayelet Israeli, Carl F. Mela, and Oded Netzer. "Personalization and Targeting: How to Experiment, Learn & Optimize." Working Paper, June 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Cram Method for Efficient Simultaneous Learning and Evaluation
By: Zeyang Jia, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
We introduce the "cram" method, a general and efficient approach to simultaneous learning and evaluation using a generic machine learning (ML) algorithm. In a single pass of batched data, the proposed method repeatedly trains an ML algorithm and tests its empirical... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning
Jia, Zeyang, Kosuke Imai, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "The Cram Method for Efficient Simultaneous Learning and Evaluation." Working Paper, March 2024.
- February 2024
- Case
Can Cities Beat the Heat? (A): A Comparative Analysis of Climate Actions and Change Enablers in 14 U.S. Cities
By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter and Jacob A. Small
Throughout the early 2000's, emphasis was placed on initiatives to adapt to and mitigate climate action in cities. This series presents overviews (snapshots) of 14 U.S. metropolitan regions to help identify similarities, differences, and opportunities for developing... View Details
Keywords: Climate; Climate Impact; Innovation; Mitigation Policies; Carbon Footprint; Investing; Climate Finance; Renewable; Mobility; City; Climate Change; Adaptation; Renewable Energy; Weather; Problems and Challenges; United States; Boston; Detroit; Miami; Minneapolis; St. Paul; Pittsburgh; Seattle; San Jose
- 2023
- Working Paper
Do Third-Party Guarantors Reassure Foot Soldiers?
By: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Michael Weintraub, Leopoldo Fergusson, Juana Catalina Garcia Duque and Laia Balcells
Since the end of the Cold War, international third parties such as the United Nations (UN) have become frequent guarantors of peace agreements. Existing studies document that third parties provide assurances that help maintain peace, yet these studies nearly... View Details
Keywords: United Nations; Colombia; Peacemaking; Peace Process; Peace; Civil Unrest; Civil Society; Political Leadership; Policy; Civil Society or Community; Governance; Government and Politics; Economy; Economic Growth; Latin America; South America; Colombia
Garbiras-Díaz, Natalia, Michael Weintraub, Leopoldo Fergusson, Juana Catalina Garcia Duque, and Laia Balcells. "Do Third-Party Guarantors Reassure Foot Soldiers?" Working Paper, August 2023.
- June 2023
- Article
The Effect of Firms' Information Exposure on Safeguarding Employee Health: Evidence from COVID-19
By: Lisa Yao Liu and Shirley Lu
We show that information exposure through international business networks enables firms to take proactive measures that benefit employees and potentially the local community. Specifically, in the early days of COVID-19, firms that have business networks with China and... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Networks; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Health Pandemics; Decision Choices and Conditions; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact
Liu, Lisa Yao, and Shirley Lu. "The Effect of Firms' Information Exposure on Safeguarding Employee Health: Evidence from COVID-19." Journal of Accounting Research 61, no. 3 (June 2023): 891–933.
- Article
Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements
By: Miguel García-Sánchez, Aila M. Matanock and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz
To what extent are legislators, responsible for the implementation of many peace agreements, responsive to citizens’ preferences? Examining the 2016 Colombian peace agreement, we embed an experiment in the 2019 wave of a survey of all the members of Congress. We inform... View Details
Keywords: Legislation; Legislators; Peace Process; Agreements; Govenment; Voters' Interests; Governance; Government and Politics; Voting; Policy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Latin America; Colombia
García-Sánchez, Miguel, Aila M. Matanock, and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz. "Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements." Journal of Conflict Resolution 67, no. 5 (May 2023): 893–922.
- July 2023
- Article
Political Strategies for Climate and Environmental Solutions
By: Jonas Meckling and Valerie Karplus
Many of the barriers to progress in addressing environmental problems, such as climate change, are political. We argue that politics should not be seen only as a constraint but be recognized as a target of intervention to advance environmental solutions. We use the... View Details
Meckling, Jonas, and Valerie Karplus. "Political Strategies for Climate and Environmental Solutions." Nature Sustainability 6, no. 7 (July 2023): 742–751.
- January–February 2023
- Article
Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions
By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas
We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Epidemics; Analytics and Data Science; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
Li, Michael Lingzhi, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis, and Dimitris Bertsimas. "Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions." Operations Research 71, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 184–201.
- 2023
- Article
Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a... View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Precision Medicine; Uplift Modeling; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 242–256.
- August 2023
- Article
Taking Stock of the Implementation Gap in Climate Policy
By: Taryn Fransen, Jonas Meckling, Anna Stunzi, Tobias Schmidt, Florian Egli, Nicolas Schmid and Christopher Beaton
A gap persists between the emissions reductions pledged by countries under the Paris Agreement and those resulting from their domestic policies. We argue that this gap in fact contains two parts: one in the policies that countries adopt, and the other in the outcomes... View Details
Keywords: Emission Reduction; Outcome or Result; Policy; Environmental Regulation; Equality and Inequality
Fransen, Taryn, Jonas Meckling, Anna Stunzi, Tobias Schmidt, Florian Egli, Nicolas Schmid, and Christopher Beaton. "Taking Stock of the Implementation Gap in Climate Policy." Nature Climate Change 13, no. 8 (August 2023): 752–755.
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Limits of Decentralized Administrative Data Collection: Experimental Evidence from Colombia
By: Natalia Garbiras-Diaz and Tara Slough
States collect vast amounts of data for use in policymaking and public administration. To
do so, central governments frequently solicit data from decentralized bureaucrats. Because
central governments use these data in policymaking, decentralized bureaucrats may face... View Details
Keywords: Decentralization; Policy-making; Policy/economics; Policy Evaluation; Governance; Government Administration; Government and Politics; Government Legislation; Policy; Public Opinion; Analytics and Data Science; Latin America; South America; Colombia
Garbiras-Diaz, Natalia, and Tara Slough. "The Limits of Decentralized Administrative Data Collection: Experimental Evidence from Colombia." Working Paper, December 2022.
- 2023
- Article
Green Bargains: Leveraging Public Investment to Advance Climate Regulation
By: Jonas Meckling and Jesse Strecker
Climate policy has entered a new era as public investment is increasingly moving to center stage, including recovery spending and long-term climate investment plans. While essential for decarbonization, public investment is not enough – the carrots of investment need... View Details
Keywords: Government and Politics; Environmental Regulation; Climate Change; Policy; Motivation and Incentives
Meckling, Jonas, and Jesse Strecker. "Green Bargains: Leveraging Public Investment to Advance Climate Regulation." Climate Policy 23, no. 4 (2023): 418–429.
- 2022
- Report
Competitiveness Roadmap for India@100
By: Michael E. Porter and Christian H.M. Ketels
The Competitiveness Roadmap for India lays out policy principles to guide India's efforts to move towards middle-income and beyond over the next 25 years. It covers a discussion of appropriate outcome ambitions, the underlying development approach, specific policy... View Details
Porter, Michael E., and Christian H.M. Ketels. "Competitiveness Roadmap for India@100." Report, Institute for Competitiveness, India, September 2022.
- September 2022 (Revised November 2022)
- Case
The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act: Trade and Genocide in U.S.-China Relations
By: Jeremy Friedman and David Lane
On June 21, 2022, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) went into effect, requiring companies to prove that goods imported from the People’s Republic of China were not made with forced labor. The bill was a reaction to reports of products being made with... View Details
Keywords: Ethics; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Government Legislation; International Relations; Labor; Wages; Law Enforcement; Law; Rights; Operations; Supply Chain Management; Business and Government Relations; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Mining Industry; China; United States
Friedman, Jeremy, and David Lane. "The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act: Trade and Genocide in U.S.-China Relations." Harvard Business School Case 723-001, September 2022. (Revised November 2022.)
- August 2022 (Revised December 2022)
- Case
Iluméxico: For Every Family to Have Power
By: Brian Trelstad, Isa Oliveres and Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago
In 2022, Manuel Wiechers, the CEO of Iluméxico, a for-profit social enterprise that provided off-grid solar energy services in rural Mexico, was finalizing his presentation for the company’s upcoming board meeting. In the 12 years since Wiechers had co-founded... View Details
Keywords: Social Entrepreneurship; Social Enterprise; Energy; Energy Policy; Energy Generation; Energy Sources; Growth Management; Business and Government Relations; Equity; Internet and the Web; Business Model; Energy Industry; Mexico; Latin America
Trelstad, Brian, Isa Oliveres, and Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago. "Iluméxico: For Every Family to Have Power." Harvard Business School Case 323-026, August 2022. (Revised December 2022.)