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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

A Welfare Analysis of Gambling in Video Games
By: Tomomichi Amano and Andrey Simonov
In 2020, gamers worldwide spent more than $15 billion on loot boxes, a lottery of virtual items built into video games. Loot boxes are contentious, as regulators worry that they constitute gambling. In contrast, video game companies maintain that loot boxes are...  View Details
Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Policy; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Product Design; Video Game Industry
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Leadership and the Value of Persistence
By: James J. Anton, Alan Jaske and Dennis Yao
Consider a leader’s decision whether to persist with an unsuccessful R&D project or to terminate the project in favor of a new project with an uncertain value. How does that decision affect the effort exerted by the manager assigned to the project? To study this...  View Details
Keywords: Persistence; Project Evaluation; R＆D Project Management; Projects; Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership
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  • 2023
  • Article

Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a...  View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Precision Medicine; Uplift Modeling; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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  • September 15, 2022
  • Article

Work-From-Anywhere as a Public Policy: 3 Findings from the Tulsa Remote Program
By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Evan Starr and Thomaz Teodorovicz
The adoption of work-from-anywhere by organizations might help smaller towns and communities across the country attract talent and reverse brain drain, by incentivizing remote workers to migrate to such locations. We evaluate how the Tulsa Remote program, which...  View Details
Keywords: Remote Work; Grants; Labor; Government Administration; Tulsa
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  • 2022
  • Article

Data Poisoning Attacks on Off-Policy Evaluation Methods
By: Elita Lobo, Harvineet Singh, Marek Petrik, Cynthia Rudin and Himabindu Lakkaraju
Off-policy Evaluation (OPE) methods are a crucial tool for evaluating policies in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where exploration is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive. However, the extent to which such methods can be trusted under adversarial threats...  View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Cybersecurity; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2022
  • Article

Towards Robust Off-Policy Evaluation via Human Inputs
By: Harvineet Singh, Shalmali Joshi, Finale Doshi-Velez and Himabindu Lakkaraju
Off-policy Evaluation (OPE) methods are crucial tools for evaluating policies in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where direct deployment is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive. When deployment environments are expected to undergo changes (that is, dataset...  View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Research
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  • May 2022
  • Article

Policy Stringency and Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Longitudinal Analysis of Data from 15 Countries
By: Lara B. Aknin, Bernardo Andretti, Rafael Goldszmidt, John F. Helliwell, Anna Petherick, Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, Elizabeth W. Dunn, Daisy Fancourt, Elkhonon Goldberg, Sarah P. Jones, Ozge Karadag, Elie Karam, Richard Layard, Shekhar Saxena, Emily Thornton, Ashley Whillans and Jamil Zaki
To date, public health policies implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have been evaluated on the basis of their ability to reduce transmission and minimise economic harm. We aimed to assess the association between COVID-19 policy restrictions and mental health...  View Details
Keywords: Public Health; COVID-19; Mental Health; Policy; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Well-being
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?
By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon
We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...  View Details
Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy; Newspapers
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Talent Flows and the Geography of Knowledge Production: Causal Evidence from Multinational Firms
By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury, Sara Signorelli and James M. Sappenfield
Leveraging a unique dataset merging patent data with all work-related migration reforms that took place in 15 countries over 26 years, we show that reforms discouraging inventor mobility decrease the patenting of MNE subsidiaries within a country, while reforms...  View Details
Keywords: Migration; Technology; Policy Evaluation; Patents; Information Technology; Immigration; Policy; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Globalization
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  • Article

Social Technology: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Improving Care for Older Adults
By: Arthur Kleinman, Hongtu Chen, Sue E. Levkoff, Ann Forsyth, David E. Bloom, Winnie Yip, Tarun Khanna, Conor J. Walsh, David Perry, Ellen W. Seely, Anne S. Kleinman, Yan Zhang, Yuan Wang, Jun Jing, Tianshu Pan, Ning An, Zhenggang Bai, Jiexiu Wang, Qing Liu and Fawwaz Habbal
Population aging is a defining demographic reality of our era. It is associated with an increase in the societal burden of delivering care to older adults with chronic conditions or frailty. How to integrate global population aging and technology development to help...  View Details
Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Age; Service Delivery; Information Technology; Collaborative Innovation and Invention
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

The Business of K-12 Education in China
By: Geoffrey Jones and Yuhai Wu
This working paper examines the evolution of K-12 education in China, especially between 1985 and the present day, drawing extensive interviews with participants in the educational sector. China has been hugely successful in reaching almost 100 percent literacy,...  View Details
Keywords: K-12 Education; China; Real Estate; Early Childhood Education; Performance Evaluation; Teaching; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Personal Development and Career; Social Issues; Nonprofit Organizations; Private Sector; Education Industry; Real Estate Industry; China
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  • Article

The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19
By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon and Tasaneeya Viratyosin
No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text-based methods to develop these points with...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Market; Health Pandemics; Governance; Policy; Financial Markets
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes
By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral
Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we...  View Details
Keywords: Targeted Marketing; Optimization; Churn Management; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Policy; Learning; Outcome or Result
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  • August 2020 (Revised June 2021)
  • Case

Just Arrived: Integrating Refugees in Sweden
By: Brian Trelstad, Emilie Billaud and Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej
Just Arrived is an online platform that matches newly-arrived immigrants in Sweden with employment opportunities. As one of several for-profit and non-profit start-ups in Europe that is looking to address the refugee crisis, the case enables a comparative analysis of...  View Details
Keywords: Immigration; Refugees; Employment; Integration; Business Model; Social Entrepreneurship; Growth and Development Strategy; Employment Industry; Sweden; Italy; Germany
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  • April 2020
  • Article

Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques
By: Shawn A. Cole, A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
Knowledge of consumer demand is important for firms, policy makers, and economists. One common tool for incentive-compatible demand elicitation, the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism, has been widely used in laboratory settings but rarely evaluated for...  View Details
Keywords: Incentive-compatible Elicitation; Experimental Methods; Weather Insurance; Rainfall Insurance; Agricultural Extension; Demand and Consumers
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  • March 2020
  • Article

A Revolution in Economics? It's Just Getting Started...
By: Shawn A. Cole, William Pariente and Anja Sautmann
We have each experienced thrills and pain while supporting the mission of the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab, which facilitated many of the experiments described in the 2019 Nobel Prize citation. J-PAL in many ways seeks to fulfill what Angrist and Pischke...  View Details
Keywords: Randomized Control Trials; Economics; Research; Innovation and Invention
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  • January 2020
  • Article

The Long-Run Dynamics of Electricity Demand: Evidence from Municipal Aggregation
By: Tatyana Deryugina, Alexander MacKay and Julian Reif
We study the dynamics of residential electricity demand by exploiting a natural experiment that produced large and long-lasting price changes in over 250 Illinois communities. Using a flexible difference-in-differences matching approach, we estimate that the price...  View Details
Keywords: Electricity Demand; Consumption Dynamics; Energy; Policy; Demand and Consumers; Price; Mathematical Methods
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  • November 2019
  • Article

When and Why Defaults Influence Decisions: A Meta-analysis of Default Effects
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Shannon Duncan, Elke U. Weber and Eric J. Johnson
When people make decisions with a pre-selected choice option—a “default”—they are more likely to select that option. Because defaults are easy to implement, they constitute one of the most widely employed tools in the choice architecture toolbox. However, to decide...  View Details
Keywords: Choice Architecture; Defaults; Default Effects; Decision Making; Behavior; Analysis
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  • September 2019 (Revised June 2021)
  • Case

Dove and Real Beauty: Building a Brand with Purpose
By: Mark R. Kramer, Myriam Sidibe and Gunjan Veda
Unilever subsidiary Dove soap became a "brand with a purpose" and created shared value when the company decided to launch a Campaign for Real Beauty to combat the artificial media-driven stereotype of female beauty that causes appearance anxiety in women and girls...  View Details
Keywords: Stereotype; Body Image; Female; Self-Esteem; Brands and Branding; Mission and Purpose; Advertising Campaigns; Gender; Resource Allocation
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  • Summer 2018
  • Article

CSR Needs CPR: Corporate Sustainability and Politics
By: Thomas Lyon, Magali A. Delmas, John W. Maxwell, Pratima Bansal, Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline, Patricia Crifo, Rodolphe Durand, Jean-Pascal Gond, Andrew King, Michael Lenox, Michael W. Toffel, David Vogel and Frank Wijen
Corporate sustainability has gone mainstream, and many companies have taken meaningful steps to improve their own environmental performance. But while corporate political actions such as lobbying can have a greater impact on environmental quality, they are ignored in...  View Details
Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Communication; Policy; Business and Government Relations
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