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Publications
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- Faculty Publications (6)
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges...
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- August 2021
- Article
Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates
By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright
Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Real Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....
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- September 2018
- Article
Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Gordon Y. Liao
We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within an asset class but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single asset class, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. Upon the arrival...
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- December 2017 (Revised May 2018)
- Case
Amazon Buys Whole Foods
By: José B. Alvarez, David Lane and Joni Coughlin
The June 2017 news that e-commerce giant Amazon was paying $13.7 billion for organic supermarket chain Whole Foods precipitated a broad sell-off in the shares of grocery retailers and suppliers. Behind the precipitous declines lay recognition that Amazon’s bold move...
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Keywords:
Amazon;
Whole Foods;
Grocery;
Grocery Delivery;
Mergers ＆ Acquisitions;
Business Models;
Food Value Chain;
Agribusiness;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Operations;
Competitive Strategy;
E-commerce;
Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry;
Retail Industry;
Web Services Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
United States
- December 1989
- Article
On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations
By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito
This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property...
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