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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (31)
    • Faculty Publications  (6)

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    • All HBS Web  (31)
      • Faculty Publications  (6)

      Overreaction Remove Overreaction →

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges...  View Details
      Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30356, August 2022.
      • August 2021
      • Article

      Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright
      Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes...  View Details
      Keywords: Conundrum; Investor Demand; Monetary Policy Transmission; Interest Rates
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      Hanson, Samuel G., David O. Lucca, and Jonathan H. Wright. "Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 136, no. 3 (August 2021): 1719–1781.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Real Credit Cycles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
      We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....  View Details
      Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
      • September 2018
      • Article

      Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Gordon Y. Liao
      We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within an asset class but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single asset class, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. Upon the arrival...  View Details
      Keywords: System Shocks; Asset Pricing
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Gordon Y. Liao. "Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets." Review of Financial Studies 31, no. 9 (September 2018): 3307–3343. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • December 2017 (Revised May 2018)
      • Case

      Amazon Buys Whole Foods

      By: José B. Alvarez, David Lane and Joni Coughlin
      The June 2017 news that e-commerce giant Amazon was paying $13.7 billion for organic supermarket chain Whole Foods precipitated a broad sell-off in the shares of grocery retailers and suppliers. Behind the precipitous declines lay recognition that Amazon’s bold move...  View Details
      Keywords: Amazon; Whole Foods; Grocery; Grocery Delivery; Mergers & Acquisitions; Business Models; Food Value Chain; Agribusiness; Mergers and Acquisitions; Operations; Competitive Strategy; E-commerce; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Retail Industry; Web Services Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States
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      Alvarez, José B., David Lane, and Joni Coughlin. "Amazon Buys Whole Foods." Harvard Business School Case 518-056, December 2017. (Revised May 2018.)
      • December 1989
      • Article

      On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

      By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito
      This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property...  View Details
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
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      Froot, K. A., and T. Ito. "On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations." Journal of International Money and Finance 8, no. 4 (December 1989): 487–510. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2577, May 1988.)
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