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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (69)
    • Faculty Publications  (9)

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    • All HBS Web  (69)
      • Faculty Publications  (9)

      Overconfidence Remove Overconfidence →

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      • 2022
      • Article

      Leadership & Overconfidence

      By: Don A Moore and Max H. Bazerman
      Expressions of confidence can give leaders credibility. In the political realm, they can earn votes and public approval for decisions made in office. Such support is justified when the confidence displayed is truly a sign that a leader (whether a candidate or an...  View Details
      Keywords: Personal Characteristics; Leadership; Government Legislation; Political Elections
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      Moore, Don A., and Max H. Bazerman. "Leadership & Overconfidence." Behavioral Science & Policy 8, no. 2 (2022): 59–69.
      • May 2022
      • Article

      Complex Disclosure

      By: Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Daniel Martin
      We present evidence that unnecessarily complex disclosure can result from strategic incentives to shroud information. In our lab experiment, senders are required to report their private information truthfully, but can choose how complex to make their reports. We find...  View Details
      Keywords: Disclosure; Experiments; Naiveté; Overconfidence; Corporate Disclosure; Policy; Information; Complexity; Strategy; Consumer Behavior
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      Jin, Ginger Zhe, Michael Luca, and Daniel Martin. "Complex Disclosure." Management Science 68, no. 5 (May 2022): 3236–3261.
      • January–February 2015
      • Article

      The Art of Giving and Receiving Advice

      By: David A. Garvin and Joshua D. Margolis
      The article looks at giving and receiving advice as an element of organizational leadership and managerial ability. It suggests that the skills related to these actions, such as self-awareness and diplomacy, are not innate talents but can be learned. It lists problems...  View Details
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      Garvin, David A., and Joshua D. Margolis. "The Art of Giving and Receiving Advice." Harvard Business Review 93, nos. 1/2 (January–February 2015): 60–71.
      • Article

      Seeking the Roots of Entrepreneurship: Insights from Behavioral Economics

      By: Thomas Astebro, Holger Herz, Ramana Nanda and Roberto A. Weber
      There is a growing body of evidence that many entrepreneurs seem to enter and persist in entrepreneurship despite earning low risk-adjusted returns. This has lead to attempts to provide explanations—using both standard economic theory and behavioral economics—for why...  View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Personal Characteristics; Attitudes; Behavior
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      Astebro, Thomas, Holger Herz, Ramana Nanda, and Roberto A. Weber. "Seeking the Roots of Entrepreneurship: Insights from Behavioral Economics." Journal of Economic Perspectives 28, no. 3 (Summer 2014): 49–70.
      • May 2011
      • Article

      Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 884–896.
      • April 2011
      • Article

      Why Leaders Don't Learn from Success

      By: Francesca Gino and Gary P. Pisano
      We argue that for a variety of psychological reasons, it is often much harder for leaders and organizations to learn from success than to learn from failure. Success creates three kinds of traps that often impede deep learning. The first is attribution error or the...  View Details
      Keywords: Learning; Innovation and Management; Leadership; Failure; Success; Performance Evaluation; Prejudice and Bias
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      Gino, Francesca, and Gary P. Pisano. "Why Leaders Don't Learn from Success." Harvard Business Review 89, no. 4 (April 2011): 68–74.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

      By: Eric Van den Steen
      This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
      • September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
      • Exercise

      Exercise on Estimation

      By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville
      This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident.  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Personal Characteristics
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      Riis, Jason, and John T. Gourville. "Exercise on Estimation." Harvard Business School Exercise 509-022, September 2008. (Revised September 2010.)
      • Research Summary

      Current Research

      By: Leslie K. John

      Professor John is a behavioral scientist who uses both laboratory and field experiments to investigate questions that are at the intersection of marketing, organizational behavior, and public policy.

      Professor John’s work has been published in leading...  View Details

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