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  • July 2023
  • Article

Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations
By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still...  View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Life After Death: A Field Experiment with Small Businesses on Information Frictions, Stigma, and Bankruptcy
By: Shai Benjamin Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Mitchell Hoffman and Benjamin Iverson
In a randomized control trial (RCT) with U.S. small businesses, we document that a large share of firms are not well-informed about bankruptcy. Many assume that bankruptcy necessarily entails the death of a business and do not know about Chapter 11 bankruptcy, where...  View Details
Keywords: Small Business; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Knowledge Dissemination; Outcome or Result
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  • 2022
  • Article

Leadership & Overconfidence
By: Don A Moore and Max H. Bazerman
Expressions of confidence can give leaders credibility. In the political realm, they can earn votes and public approval for decisions made in office. Such support is justified when the confidence displayed is truly a sign that a leader (whether a candidate or an...  View Details
Keywords: Personal Characteristics; Leadership; Government Legislation; Political Elections
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  • May 2022
  • Article

Complex Disclosure
By: Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Daniel Martin
We present evidence that unnecessarily complex disclosure can result from strategic incentives to shroud information. In our lab experiment, senders are required to report their private information truthfully, but can choose how complex to make their reports. We find...  View Details
Keywords: Disclosure; Experiments; Naiveté; Overconfidence; Corporate Disclosure; Policy; Information; Complexity; Strategy; Consumer Behavior
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  • January–February 2015
  • Article

The Art of Giving and Receiving Advice
By: David A. Garvin and Joshua D. Margolis
The article looks at giving and receiving advice as an element of organizational leadership and managerial ability. It suggests that the skills related to these actions, such as self-awareness and diplomacy, are not innate talents but can be learned. It lists problems...  View Details
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  • Article

Seeking the Roots of Entrepreneurship: Insights from Behavioral Economics
By: Thomas Astebro, Holger Herz, Ramana Nanda and Roberto A. Weber
There is a growing body of evidence that many entrepreneurs seem to enter and persist in entrepreneurship despite earning low risk-adjusted returns. This has lead to attempts to provide explanations—using both standard economic theory and behavioral economics—for why...  View Details
Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Personal Characteristics; Attitudes; Behavior
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  • May 2011
  • Article

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
By: Eric J. Van den Steen
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one...  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias
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  • April 2011
  • Article

Why Leaders Don't Learn from Success
By: Francesca Gino and Gary P. Pisano
We argue that for a variety of psychological reasons, it is often much harder for leaders and organizations to learn from success than to learn from failure. Success creates three kinds of traps that often impede deep learning. The first is attribution error or the...  View Details
Keywords: Learning; Innovation and Management; Leadership; Failure; Success; Performance Evaluation; Prejudice and Bias
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  • 2010
  • Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
By: Eric Van den Steen
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one...  View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
  • Exercise

Exercise on Estimation
By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville
This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident.  View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Personal Characteristics
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  • Research Summary

Current Research
By: Leslie K. John

Professor John is a behavioral scientist who uses both laboratory and field experiments to investigate questions that are at the intersection of marketing, organizational behavior, and public policy.

Professor John’s work has been published in leading...  View Details

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