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- 2024
- Working Paper
Why Has Construction Productivity Stagnated? The Role of Land-Use Regulation
By: Leonardo D’Amico, Edward Glaeser, Joseph Gyourko, William Kerr and Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto
We document a Kuznets curve for construction productivity in 20th-century America.
Homes built per construction worker remained stagnant between 1900 and 1940, boomed after
World War II, and then plummeted after 1970. The productivity boom from 1940 to 1970
shows... View Details
D’Amico, Leonardo, Edward Glaeser, Joseph Gyourko, William Kerr, and Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto. "Why Has Construction Productivity Stagnated? The Role of Land-Use Regulation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-027, November 2024.
- November 2024
- Article
Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs
By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano
This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details
Ling, Xi, Wesley R. Hartmann, and Tomomichi Amano. "Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs." Management Science 70, no. 11 (November 2024): 7892–7910.
- 2024
- Working Paper
How Do Global Portfolio Investors Hedge Currency Risk?
By: Robin Greenwood and Alex Cheema-Fox
We use monthly portfolio data from one of the world’s largest custodian banks, with over $40 trillion assets under custody, to study how global portfolio investors hedge foreign exchange risk in their equity and fixed income portfolios over the past 25 years. The data... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Alex Cheema-Fox. "How Do Global Portfolio Investors Hedge Currency Risk?" Working Paper, October 2024.
- October 2024
- Teaching Note
El Salvador: Launching Bitcoin as Legal Tender
By: Laura Alfaro
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 322-055. In June 2021, Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, surprised the world with the announcement that the country would adopt bitcoin as legal tender, becoming the first nation to do so. Bitcoin was mostly used for trading and had... View Details
- September–October 2024
- Article
Boards Need a New Approach to Technology
By: Tarun Khanna, Mary C. Beckerle and Nabil Y. Sakkab
The boards of too many publicly traded companies are downright timid when considering matters involving science and technology. More often than not, they focus on security and digitization—a defensive posture that fails to consider the bigger opportunities emerging... View Details
Khanna, Tarun, Mary C. Beckerle, and Nabil Y. Sakkab. "Boards Need a New Approach to Technology." Harvard Business Review 102, no. 5 (September–October 2024): 128–137.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33016, October 2024.
- Fall 2024
- Article
The Three Traps That Stymie Reinvention: Organizational Identity, Architecture, and Collaboration Can Be Either Assets or Liabilities to Pursuing Growth in New Sectors
By: Ryan Raffaelli
In more than a decade of researching innovation, I have observed how organizations respond to new opportunities, technological changes, or unexpected market shifts that threaten to upend their current business model. This process, which I call reinvention, may occur... View Details
Keywords: Innovation And Strategy; Change Leadership; Collaboration; Architecture; Transformation; Disruption; Leading Change; Innovation Strategy; Identity; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure
Raffaelli, Ryan. "The Three Traps That Stymie Reinvention: Organizational Identity, Architecture, and Collaboration Can Be Either Assets or Liabilities to Pursuing Growth in New Sectors." MIT Sloan Management Review 66, no. 1 (Fall 2024): 46–52. (Cover story.)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Behavioral Attenuation
By: Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea and Jeffrey Yang
We report a large-scale examination of behavioral attenuation: due to information-processing constraints, the elasticity of people’s decisions with respect to economic fundamentals is generally too small. We implement more than 30 experiments, 20 of which were... View Details
Graeber, Thomas, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea, and Jeffrey Yang. "Behavioral Attenuation." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32973, September 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
The New Digital Divide
By: Mayana Pereira, Shane Greenstein, Raffaella Sadun, Prasanna Tambe, Lucia Ronchi Darre, Tammy Glazer, Allen Kim, Rahul Dodhia and Juan Lavista Ferres
We build and analyze new metrics of digital usage that leverage telemetry data collected by Microsoft during operating system updates across forty million Windows devices in U.S. households. These measures of US household digital usage are much more comprehensive than... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Measurement and Metrics; Geographic Location; Behavior; Technology Adoption; Demographics
Pereira, Mayana, Shane Greenstein, Raffaella Sadun, Prasanna Tambe, Lucia Ronchi Darre, Tammy Glazer, Allen Kim, Rahul Dodhia, and Juan Lavista Ferres. "The New Digital Divide." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32932, September 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Operational Impact of Customer Location in On-Demand Services
By: Natalie Epstein, Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno
The rapid growth of on-demand delivery services, particularly in the food and grocery sectors, has driven the expansion of hyperlocal fulfillment centers (FCs). This paper uses data from an on-demand grocery delivery platform in Latin America to assess how customer... View Details
- August 2024 (Revised November 2024)
- Case
No Labels and the 2024 Presidential Insurance Plan
By: Robert F. White and Tom Quinn
After observing record voter dissatisfaction with the choices in the 2024 U.S. presidential election – Democratic nominee President Joe Biden and Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump – the bipartisan nonprofit No Labels decided to reserve ballot access... View Details
Keywords: Disruption; Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Lawfulness; Failure; System Shocks; United States
White, Robert F., and Tom Quinn. "No Labels and the 2024 Presidential Insurance Plan." Harvard Business School Case 825-044, August 2024. (Revised November 2024.)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Modest Victims: Victims Who Decline to Broadcast Their Victimization Are Seen As Morally Virtuous
By: Nathan Dhaliwal, Jillian J. Jordan and Pat Barclay
What do people think of victims who conceal their victimhood? We propose that the decision to not broadcast that one has been victimized serves as a costly act of modesty—in doing so, one is potentially forgoing social support and compensation from one’s community. We... View Details
Dhaliwal, Nathan, Jillian J. Jordan, and Pat Barclay. "Modest Victims: Victims Who Decline to Broadcast Their Victimization Are Seen As Morally Virtuous." Working Paper, August 2024.
- 2024
- Chapter
Corporations as the Central Institutions of Society
Mark Twain observed that, “Prediction is very difficult—particularly when it involves the future,” and he was right. One way to reduce the risk of becoming an infamous forecaster—like the experts who told us the Internet would quickly collapse, that Apple would never... View Details
Badaracco, Joseph L. "Corporations as the Central Institutions of Society." Chap. 4 in Justifying Next Stage Capitalism: Exploring a Hopeful Future, edited by Michel Dion and Moses Pava, 87–106. Springer, 2024.
- July–August 2024
- Article
Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response,
which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment
effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details
Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing Strategy
Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals." Marketing Science 43, no. 4 (July–August 2024): 863–884.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Navigating Software Vulnerabilities: Eighteen Years of Evidence from Medium and Large U.S. Organizations
By: Raviv Murciano-Goroff, Ran Zhuo and Shane Greenstein
How prevalent are severe software vulnerabilities, how fast do software users respond to the availability of secure versions, and what determines the variance in the installation distribution? Using the largest dataset ever assembled on user updates, tracking server... View Details
Murciano-Goroff, Raviv, Ran Zhuo, and Shane Greenstein. "Navigating Software Vulnerabilities: Eighteen Years of Evidence from Medium and Large U.S. Organizations." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32696, July 2024.
- July 2024
- Article
The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is
By: Alex Chinco and Marco Sammon
Each time a stock gets added to or dropped from a benchmark index, we ask: “How much money would have to be tracking that index to explain the huge spike in rebalancing volume we observe on reconstitution day?” While index funds held 16% of the US stock market in 2021,... View Details
Keywords: Indexing; Passive Investing; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Russell Reconstitution Day; Trading Volume; Information-based Asset Pricing; Investment Funds; Asset Pricing
Chinco, Alex, and Marco Sammon. "The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is." Journal of Financial Economics 157 (July 2024).
- 2024
- Working Paper
Webmunk: A New Tool for Studying Online Behavior and Digital Platforms
By: Chiara Farronato, Audrey Fradkin and Chris Karr
Understanding the behavior of users online is important for researchers, policymakers, and private companies alike. But observing online behavior and conducting experiments is difficult without direct access to the user base and software of technology companies. We... View Details
Farronato, Chiara, Audrey Fradkin, and Chris Karr. "Webmunk: A New Tool for Studying Online Behavior and Digital Platforms." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32694, July 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Personalization and Targeting: How to Experiment, Learn & Optimize
By: Aurelie Lemmens, Jason M.T. Roos, Sebastian Gabel, Eva Ascarza, Hernan Bruno, Elea McDonnell Feit, Brett Gordon, Ayelet Israeli, Carl F. Mela and Oded Netzer
Personalization has become the heartbeat of modern marketing. Advances in causal inference and machine learning enable companies to understand how the same marketing action can impact the choices of individual customers differently. This article provides an academic... View Details
Keywords: Personalization; Targeting; Experiments; Observational Studies; Policy Implementation; Policy Evaluation; Customization and Personalization; Marketing Strategy; AI and Machine Learning
Lemmens, Aurelie, Jason M.T. Roos, Sebastian Gabel, Eva Ascarza, Hernan Bruno, Elea McDonnell Feit, Brett Gordon, Ayelet Israeli, Carl F. Mela, and Oded Netzer. "Personalization and Targeting: How to Experiment, Learn & Optimize." Working Paper, June 2024.
- June 2024
- Article
Rationalizing Outcomes: Interdependent Learning in Competitive Markets
By: Anoop R. Menon and Dennis Yao
In this article we use simulation models to explore interdependent learning in competitive markets. Such interactions require attention to both the mental representations held by the management of the focal firm as well as the beliefs of that management about the... View Details
Keywords: Mental Models; Strategic Interactions; Rationalization; Explanation-based View; Competition
Menon, Anoop R., and Dennis Yao. "Rationalizing Outcomes: Interdependent Learning in Competitive Markets." Strategy Science 9, no. 2 (June 2024): 97–117.
- June 2024
- Article
Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms
By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers
Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices, and sometimes for free. Such "non-market" mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with redistributive concerns. Agents... View Details
Akbarpour, Mohammad, Piotr Dworczak, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms." Journal of Political Economy 132, no. 6 (June 2024): 1831–1875. (Authors' names are in certified random order.)