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Publications

Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (27)

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    • All HBS Web  (276)
      • Faculty Publications  (27)

      Novel Risks Remove Novel Risks →

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      • 2022
      • Article

      Missing Novelty in Drug Development

      By: Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
      We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to...  View Details
      Keywords: Drug Development; Risk Aversion; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention; Investment; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Krieger, Joshua, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Missing Novelty in Drug Development." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 2 (February 2022): 636–679.
      • Article

      Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability

      By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by...  View Details
      Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology
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      Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Risk Sensitivity or Social Signaling? Unmasking Behaviors with Video Analytics

      By: Shunyuan Zhang, Kaiquan Xu and Kannan Srinivasan
      In 2020, as the novel coronavirus spread globally, face masks were recommended in public settings to protect against and slow down the spread of the coronavirus. Why did people comply, or not, while shopping in 2020? Do these motivations relate to their shopping...  View Details
      Keywords: Video Analytics; In-store Shopping; Mask; Sensitivity To Risk; Social Perception; COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Attitudes
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      Zhang, Shunyuan, Kaiquan Xu, and Kannan Srinivasan. "Risk Sensitivity or Social Signaling? Unmasking Behaviors with Video Analytics." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-143, June 2021. (SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 3871144, June 2021.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Standing on the Shoulders of Science

      By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Martin Watzinger and Monika Schnitzer
      Today's innovations rely on scientific discoveries of the past, yet only some corporate R&D builds directly on scientific output. We analyze U.S. patents to establish three new facts about the relationship between science and the value of inventions. First, we show...  View Details
      Keywords: Patent Novelty; Value Capture; Science; Patents; Valuation
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      Krieger, Joshua Lev, Martin Watzinger, and Monika Schnitzer. "Standing on the Shoulders of Science." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-128, June 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Currency Hedging: Managing Cash Flow Exposure

      By: Laura Alfaro, Maurici Mauricio and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency derivative markets are among the largest in the world, yet their role in emerging markets is relatively understudied. We study firms' currency risk exposure and their hedging choices by employing a unique dataset covering the universe of FX derivatives...  View Details
      Keywords: FX Derivatives; Hedging; Currency; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets; Chile
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      Alfaro, Laura, Maurici Mauricio, and Liliana Varela. "Currency Hedging: Managing Cash Flow Exposure." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28910, June 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies

      By: Ishita Sen and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva
      Homeowners’ insurance provides households financial protection from climate losses. To improve access and affordability, state regulators impose price controls on insurance companies. Using novel data, we construct a new measure of rate setting frictions for individual...  View Details
      Keywords: Climate Risk; Homeowners' Insurance; Price Controls; Financial Regulation; Cross-subsidization; Climate Change; Household; Insurance; Price; Governance Controls; Financial Institutions; United States
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      Sen, Ishita, and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva. "Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies." Working Paper, January 2021. (Revised June 2022.)
      • Article

      Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?

      By: Janet Gao, Kristoph Kleiner and Joseph Pacelli
      We examine whether bankers face disciplining consequences for structuring poorly performing corporate loans. We construct a novel data set containing the employment histories and loan portfolios of a large sample of corporate bankers and find that corporate credit...  View Details
      Keywords: Syndicated Loans; Credit Events; Career Outcomes; Loan Officers; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Risk Management; Corporate Finance; Personal Development and Career
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      Gao, Janet, Kristoph Kleiner, and Joseph Pacelli. "Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?" Review of Financial Studies 33, no. 12 (December 2020): 5706–5749.
      • November–December 2020
      • Article

      The Risks You Can't Foresee: What to Do When There's No Playbook

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. Leonard and Anette Mikes
      No matter how good their risk management systems are, companies can’t plan for everything. Some risks are outside people’s realm of experience or so remote no one could have imagined them. Some result from a perfect storm of coinciding breakdowns, and some materialize...  View Details
      Keywords: Novel Risks; Risk Management; Crisis Management
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Herman B. Leonard, and Anette Mikes. "The Risks You Can't Foresee: What to Do When There's No Playbook." Harvard Business Review 98, no. 6 (November–December 2020): 40–46.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
      We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      In a Pandemic, People Must Remember: Friends Are Contagious

      By: T. Schlager and A.V. Whillans
      This article reveals a behavioral tendency that may contribute to the spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Across seven studies—including two representative samples of Americans and Canadians (N = 3,408)—we show that people consistently underestimate...  View Details
      Keywords: Coronavirus; Behavior; Health Pandemics; Relationships; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception
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      Schlager, T., and A.V. Whillans. "In a Pandemic, People Must Remember: Friends Are Contagious." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-011, July 2020. (Revised September 2020.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Novel Risks

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard and Anette Mikes
      All organizations practice some form of risk management to identify and assess routine risks in their operations, supply chains, strategy, and external environment. These risk management policies, however, fail in the presence of novelty. Novel risks arise from...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Policy; Failure; Organizational Change and Adaptation
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard, and Anette Mikes. "Novel Risks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-094, March 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      rTSR: Properties, Determinants, and Consequences of Benchmark Choice

      By: Paul Ma, Jee-Eun Shin and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We develop a measurement-error framework for assessing the quality of relative-performance metrics designed to filter out the systematic component of performance and analyze relative total shareholder return (rTSR)—the predominant metric market participants use to...  View Details
      Keywords: Relative TSR; Relative Performance Evaluation; Systematic Risk; Board Of Directors; Compensation Consultants; Style Effects; Executive Compensation; Performance Evaluation; Corporate Governance
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      Ma, Paul, Jee-Eun Shin, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "rTSR: Properties, Determinants, and Consequences of Benchmark Choice." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-112, April 2019. (Revised May 2021.)
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Throwing the Baby Out with the Drinking Water: Unintended Consequences of Arsenic Mitigation Efforts in Bangladesh

      By: Nina Buchmann, Erica Field, Rachel Glennerster and Reshmaan Hussam
      The 1994 discovery of arsenic in ground water in Bangladesh prompted a massive public health effort to test all tubewells in the country and convince nearly one-quarter of the population to switch to arsenic-free drinking water sources. According to numerous sources,...  View Details
      Keywords: Child Mortality; Arsenic; Unintended Consequences; Health Disorders; Safety; Outcome or Result; Bangladesh
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      Buchmann, Nina, Erica Field, Rachel Glennerster, and Reshmaan Hussam. "Throwing the Baby Out with the Drinking Water: Unintended Consequences of Arsenic Mitigation Efforts in Bangladesh." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25729, April 2019.
      • June 2017
      • Case

      Veolia: Resourcing the World

      By: Gautam Ahuja, Tarun Khanna, Kristina Maslauskaite and Vincent Dessain
      In March 2016, Antoine Frérot, CEO of Veolia, a global environmental services provider, was undergoing an important transformation of the company. In 2013, Frérot presented a growth strategy that focused on increasing the share of industrial clients, enhancing growth...  View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Circular; Emerging Markets; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Growth and Development Strategy; Economy
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      Ahuja, Gautam, Tarun Khanna, Kristina Maslauskaite, and Vincent Dessain. "Veolia: Resourcing the World." Harvard Business School Case 717-505, June 2017.
      • April 2017
      • Article

      Financing Risk and Innovation

      By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
      We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Financing and Loans; Innovation and Invention
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      Nanda, Ramana, and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf. "Financing Risk and Innovation." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 901–918.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management

      By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang
      In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's...  View Details
      Keywords: Discretionary Accruals; Uncertainty; Implied Volatility; Earnings Response Coefficient; Risk and Uncertainty; Earnings Management; Financial Markets
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      Stein, Luke C.D., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-103, March 2016. (Revised April 2017.)
      • December 2014
      • Article

      When to Sell Your Idea: Theory and Evidence from the Movie Industry

      By: Hong Luo
      I study a model of investment and sale of ideas and test its empirical implications using a novel data set from the market for original movie ideas. Consistent with the theoretical results, I find that buyers are reluctant to meet unproven sellers for early-stage...  View Details
      Keywords: Market For Ideas; Information Asymmetry; Expropriation Risk; Intermediary; Intellectual Property Protection; Strategy; Intellectual Property; Film Entertainment; Sales; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Luo, Hong. "When to Sell Your Idea: Theory and Evidence from the Movie Industry." Management Science 60, no. 12 (December 2014): 3067–3086.
      • June 2014
      • Article

      Frictions in Shadow Banking: Evidence from the Lending Behavior of Money Market Funds

      By: Sergey Chernenko and Adi Sunderam
      We document the consequences of money market fund risk taking during the European sovereign debt crisis. Using a novel data set of security-level holdings of prime money market funds, we show that funds with large exposures to risky Eurozone banks suffered significant...  View Details
      Keywords: Money Market Mutual Funds; European Sovereign Debt Crisis; Runs; Contagion; Risk Taking; Investment Funds; Financial Crisis; Europe
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      Chernenko, Sergey, and Adi Sunderam. "Frictions in Shadow Banking: Evidence from the Lending Behavior of Money Market Funds." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 6 (June 2014): 1717–1750.
      • May 2014
      • Article

      Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment

      By: Shawn A. Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
      This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand,...  View Details
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      Cole, Shawn A., Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 104, no. 5 (May 2014): 284–290.
      • November 2013
      • Article

      Investment Cycles and Startup Innovation

      By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
      We find that VC-backed firms receiving their initial investment in hot markets are more likely to go bankrupt, but conditional on going public are valued higher on the day of their IPO, have more patents, and have more citations to their patents. Our results suggest...  View Details
      Keywords: Innovation; Market Cycles; Financing Risk; Risk and Uncertainty; Venture Capital; Investment; Innovation and Invention
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      Nanda, Ramana, and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf. "Investment Cycles and Startup Innovation." Journal of Financial Economics 110, no. 2 (November 2013): 403–418.
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