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- March 2023
- Article
Attracting the Sharks: Corporate Innovation and Securities Class Action Lawsuits
By: Elisabeth Kempf and Oliver Spalt
This paper provides novel evidence suggesting that securities class action lawsuits, a central pillar of the U.S. litigation and corporate governance system, can constitute an obstacle to valuable corporate innovation. We first establish that valuable innovation output...
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Keywords:
Class-action Litigation;
Turnover;
Lawsuits and Litigation;
Innovation and Invention;
Risk and Uncertainty
Kempf, Elisabeth, and Oliver Spalt. "Attracting the Sharks: Corporate Innovation and Securities Class Action Lawsuits." Management Science 69, no. 3 (March 2023): 1323–1934.
- December 2022
- Article
Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics
By: Cheng Gao and Rory McDonald
In nascent industries—whose new technologies are often poorly understood
by regulators—contending with regulatory uncertainty can be crucial to organizational survival and growth. Prior research on nonmarket strategy has largely
focused on established firms in mature...
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Keywords:
Technological Change;
Innovation;
Qualitative Methods;
New Categories;
Entrepreneurship;
Technological Innovation;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Strategy
Gao, Cheng, and Rory McDonald. "Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics." Administrative Science Quarterly 67, no. 4 (December 2022): 915–967.
- Fall 2022
- Article
China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics
By: Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire and Kellee Tsai
Contrary to expectations that economic interdependence might lessen security conflict between China and the U.S. and its allies, much of the contestation between China and several OECD countries has focused on firms and economic links. This paper explains the...
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Pearson, Margaret, Meg Rithmire, and Kellee Tsai. "China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics." International Security 47, no. 2 (Fall 2022): 135–176.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Are Transformational Ideas Harder to Fund? Resource Allocation to R&D Projects at a Global Pharmaceutical Firm
By: Joshua Krieger and Ramana Nanda
We study resource allocation to early-stage ideas at an internal startup program of one the largest pharmaceutical firms in the world. Our research design enables us to elicit every evaluator's scores across five different attributes, before seeing how would allocate...
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Keywords:
Project Selection;
Pharmaceuticals;
Financing Innovation;
Resource Allocation;
Innovation and Invention;
Research and Development
Krieger, Joshua, and Ramana Nanda. "Are Transformational Ideas Harder to Fund? Resource Allocation to R&D Projects at a Global Pharmaceutical Firm." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-014, August 2022.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about COVID
By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? A 2020 U.S. survey of beliefs about the lethality of COVID reveals that the elderly underestimate, and the young overestimate, their own risks, and that people with more health...
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Keywords:
Expectations;
Memory;
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Perception;
Behavior;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Values and Beliefs
Bordalo, Pedro, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about COVID." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30353, August 2022.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies
By: Ishita Sen, Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva and Sangmin Oh
Homeowners’ insurance provides households financial protection from climate losses. To improve access and affordability, state regulators impose price controls on insurance companies. Using novel data, we construct a new measure of rate setting frictions for individual...
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Keywords:
Climate Risk;
Homeowners' Insurance;
Price Controls;
Financial Regulation;
Cross-subsidization;
Climate Change;
Household;
Insurance;
Price;
Governance Controls;
Financial Institutions;
United States
Sen, Ishita, Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva, and Sangmin Oh. "Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 3762235, June 2022. (Revised December 2022.)
- 2022
- Article
Missing Novelty in Drug Development
By: Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to...
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Keywords:
Drug Development;
Risk Aversion;
Research and Development;
Innovation and Invention;
Investment;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Krieger, Joshua, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Missing Novelty in Drug Development." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 2 (February 2022): 636–679.
- Article
Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability
By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by...
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Keywords:
Black Box Explanations;
Bayesian Modeling;
Decision Making;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Information Technology
Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
- 2021
- Working Paper
Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency
By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
Foreign currency use can be a source of risk associated with currency mismatches, which firms can hedge using FX derivatives. This paper uncovers five novel facts about firms’ use of foreign currency (FX) derivatives employing a unique dataset covering the universe of...
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Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28910, June 2021. (Revised July 2022.)
- Article
Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?
By: Janet Gao, Kristoph Kleiner and Joseph Pacelli
We examine whether bankers face disciplining consequences for structuring poorly performing corporate loans. We construct a novel data set containing the employment histories and loan portfolios of a large sample of corporate bankers and find that corporate credit...
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Keywords:
Syndicated Loans;
Credit Events;
Career Outcomes;
Loan Officers;
Banks and Banking;
Financing and Loans;
Risk Management;
Corporate Finance;
Personal Development and Career
Gao, Janet, Kristoph Kleiner, and Joseph Pacelli. "Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?" Review of Financial Studies 33, no. 12 (December 2020): 5706–5749.
- November–December 2020
- Article
The Risks You Can't Foresee: What to Do When There's No Playbook
By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. Leonard and Anette Mikes
No matter how good their risk management systems are, companies can’t plan for everything. Some risks are outside people’s realm of experience or so remote no one could have imagined them. Some result from a perfect storm of coinciding breakdowns, and some materialize...
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Kaplan, Robert S., Herman B. Leonard, and Anette Mikes. "The Risks You Can't Foresee: What to Do When There's No Playbook." Harvard Business Review 98, no. 6 (November–December 2020): 40–46.
- August 2020
- Article
Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy
By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and...
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Keywords:
Risk-centric Business Cycles;
Cross-section Of Equities;
Real Risk-free Rate;
Real Investment;
Financial Markets;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Perception;
Investment
Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).
- 2020
- Working Paper
In a Pandemic, People Must Remember: Friends Are Contagious
By: T. Schlager and A.V. Whillans
This article reveals a behavioral tendency that may contribute to the spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Across seven studies—including two representative samples of Americans and Canadians (N = 3,408)—we show that people consistently underestimate...
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Schlager, T., and A.V. Whillans. "In a Pandemic, People Must Remember: Friends Are Contagious." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-011, July 2020. (Revised September 2020.)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Novel Risks
By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard and Anette Mikes
All organizations practice some form of risk management to identify and assess routine risks in their operations, supply chains, strategy, and external environment. These risk management policies, however, fail in the presence of novelty. Novel risks arise from...
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Kaplan, Robert S., Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard, and Anette Mikes. "Novel Risks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-094, March 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
rTSR: Properties, Determinants, and Consequences of Benchmark Choice
By: Paul Ma, Jee-Eun Shin and Charles C.Y. Wang
We develop a measurement-error framework for assessing the quality of relative-performance metrics designed to filter out the systematic component of performance and analyze relative total shareholder return (rTSR)—the predominant metric market participants use to...
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Keywords:
Relative TSR;
Relative Performance Evaluation;
Systematic Risk;
Board Of Directors;
Compensation Consultants;
Style Effects;
Executive Compensation;
Performance Evaluation;
Corporate Governance
Ma, Paul, Jee-Eun Shin, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "rTSR: Properties, Determinants, and Consequences of Benchmark Choice." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-112, April 2019. (Revised May 2021.)
- June 2017
- Case
Veolia: Resourcing the World
By: Gautam Ahuja, Tarun Khanna, Kristina Maslauskaite and Vincent Dessain
In March 2016, Antoine Frérot, CEO of Veolia, a global environmental services provider, was undergoing an important transformation of the company. In 2013, Frérot presented a growth strategy that focused on increasing the share of industrial clients, enhancing growth...
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Keywords:
Strategy;
Circular;
Emerging Markets;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Economy
Ahuja, Gautam, Tarun Khanna, Kristina Maslauskaite, and Vincent Dessain. "Veolia: Resourcing the World." Harvard Business School Case 717-505, June 2017.
- April 2017
- Article
Financing Risk and Innovation
By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying...
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Nanda, Ramana, and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf. "Financing Risk and Innovation." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 901–918.
- 2017
- Working Paper
Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management
By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang
In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's...
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Keywords:
Discretionary Accruals;
Uncertainty;
Implied Volatility;
Earnings Response Coefficient;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Earnings Management;
Financial Markets
Stein, Luke C.D., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-103, March 2016. (Revised April 2017.)
- December 2014
- Article
When to Sell Your Idea: Theory and Evidence from the Movie Industry
By: Hong Luo
I study a model of investment and sale of ideas and test its empirical implications using a novel data set from the market for original movie ideas. Consistent with the theoretical results, I find that buyers are reluctant to meet unproven sellers for early-stage...
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Keywords:
Market For Ideas;
Information Asymmetry;
Expropriation Risk;
Intermediary;
Intellectual Property Protection;
Strategy;
Intellectual Property;
Film Entertainment;
Sales;
Entertainment and Recreation Industry
Luo, Hong. "When to Sell Your Idea: Theory and Evidence from the Movie Industry." Management Science 60, no. 12 (December 2014): 3067–3086.
- June 2014
- Article
Frictions in Shadow Banking: Evidence from the Lending Behavior of Money Market Funds
By: Sergey Chernenko and Adi Sunderam
We document the consequences of money market fund risk taking during the European sovereign debt crisis. Using a novel data set of security-level holdings of prime money market funds, we show that funds with large exposures to risky Eurozone banks suffered significant...
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Keywords:
Money Market Mutual Funds;
European Sovereign Debt Crisis;
Runs;
Contagion;
Risk Taking;
Investment Funds;
Financial Crisis;
Europe
Chernenko, Sergey, and Adi Sunderam. "Frictions in Shadow Banking: Evidence from the Lending Behavior of Money Market Funds." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 6 (June 2014): 1717–1750.