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    • All HBS Web  (276)
      • Faculty Publications  (30)

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      • March 2023
      • Article

      Attracting the Sharks: Corporate Innovation and Securities Class Action Lawsuits

      By: Elisabeth Kempf and Oliver Spalt
      This paper provides novel evidence suggesting that securities class action lawsuits, a central pillar of the U.S. litigation and corporate governance system, can constitute an obstacle to valuable corporate innovation. We first establish that valuable innovation output...  View Details
      Keywords: Class-action Litigation; Turnover; Lawsuits and Litigation; Innovation and Invention; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, and Oliver Spalt. "Attracting the Sharks: Corporate Innovation and Securities Class Action Lawsuits." Management Science 69, no. 3 (March 2023): 1323–1934.
      • December 2022
      • Article

      Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics

      By: Cheng Gao and Rory McDonald
      In nascent industries—whose new technologies are often poorly understood by regulators—contending with regulatory uncertainty can be crucial to organizational survival and growth. Prior research on nonmarket strategy has largely focused on established firms in mature...  View Details
      Keywords: Technological Change; Innovation; Qualitative Methods; New Categories; Entrepreneurship; Technological Innovation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy
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      Gao, Cheng, and Rory McDonald. "Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics." Administrative Science Quarterly 67, no. 4 (December 2022): 915–967.
      • Fall 2022
      • Article

      China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics

      By: Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire and Kellee Tsai
      Contrary to expectations that economic interdependence might lessen security conflict between China and the U.S. and its allies, much of the contestation between China and several OECD countries has focused on firms and economic links. This paper explains the...  View Details
      Keywords: Globalized Markets and Industries; Government and Politics; Information Technology; China
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      Pearson, Margaret, Meg Rithmire, and Kellee Tsai. "China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics." International Security 47, no. 2 (Fall 2022): 135–176.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Are Transformational Ideas Harder to Fund? Resource Allocation to R&D Projects at a Global Pharmaceutical Firm

      By: Joshua Krieger and Ramana Nanda
      We study resource allocation to early-stage ideas at an internal startup program of one the largest pharmaceutical firms in the world. Our research design enables us to elicit every evaluator's scores across five different attributes, before seeing how would allocate...  View Details
      Keywords: Project Selection; Pharmaceuticals; Financing Innovation; Resource Allocation; Innovation and Invention; Research and Development
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      Krieger, Joshua, and Ramana Nanda. "Are Transformational Ideas Harder to Fund? Resource Allocation to R&D Projects at a Global Pharmaceutical Firm." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-014, August 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about COVID

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? A 2020 U.S. survey of beliefs about the lethality of COVID reveals that the elderly underestimate, and the young overestimate, their own risks, and that people with more health...  View Details
      Keywords: Expectations; Memory; COVID-19 Pandemic; Perception; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Values and Beliefs
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about COVID." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30353, August 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies

      By: Ishita Sen, Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva and Sangmin Oh
      Homeowners’ insurance provides households financial protection from climate losses. To improve access and affordability, state regulators impose price controls on insurance companies. Using novel data, we construct a new measure of rate setting frictions for individual...  View Details
      Keywords: Climate Risk; Homeowners' Insurance; Price Controls; Financial Regulation; Cross-subsidization; Climate Change; Household; Insurance; Price; Governance Controls; Financial Institutions; United States
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      Sen, Ishita, Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva, and Sangmin Oh. "Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 3762235, June 2022. (Revised December 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Article

      Missing Novelty in Drug Development

      By: Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
      We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to...  View Details
      Keywords: Drug Development; Risk Aversion; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention; Investment; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Krieger, Joshua, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Missing Novelty in Drug Development." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 2 (February 2022): 636–679.
      • Article

      Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability

      By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by...  View Details
      Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology
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      Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency

      By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency use can be a source of risk associated with currency mismatches, which firms can hedge using FX derivatives. This paper uncovers five novel facts about firms’ use of foreign currency (FX) derivatives employing a unique dataset covering the universe of...  View Details
      Keywords: FX Derivatives; Hedging; Currency; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets; Chile
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      Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28910, June 2021. (Revised July 2022.)
      • Article

      Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?

      By: Janet Gao, Kristoph Kleiner and Joseph Pacelli
      We examine whether bankers face disciplining consequences for structuring poorly performing corporate loans. We construct a novel data set containing the employment histories and loan portfolios of a large sample of corporate bankers and find that corporate credit...  View Details
      Keywords: Syndicated Loans; Credit Events; Career Outcomes; Loan Officers; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Risk Management; Corporate Finance; Personal Development and Career
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      Gao, Janet, Kristoph Kleiner, and Joseph Pacelli. "Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?" Review of Financial Studies 33, no. 12 (December 2020): 5706–5749.
      • November–December 2020
      • Article

      The Risks You Can't Foresee: What to Do When There's No Playbook

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. Leonard and Anette Mikes
      No matter how good their risk management systems are, companies can’t plan for everything. Some risks are outside people’s realm of experience or so remote no one could have imagined them. Some result from a perfect storm of coinciding breakdowns, and some materialize...  View Details
      Keywords: Novel Risks; Risk Management; Crisis Management
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Herman B. Leonard, and Anette Mikes. "The Risks You Can't Foresee: What to Do When There's No Playbook." Harvard Business Review 98, no. 6 (November–December 2020): 40–46.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
      We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      In a Pandemic, People Must Remember: Friends Are Contagious

      By: T. Schlager and A.V. Whillans
      This article reveals a behavioral tendency that may contribute to the spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Across seven studies—including two representative samples of Americans and Canadians (N = 3,408)—we show that people consistently underestimate...  View Details
      Keywords: Coronavirus; Behavior; Health Pandemics; Relationships; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception
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      Schlager, T., and A.V. Whillans. "In a Pandemic, People Must Remember: Friends Are Contagious." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-011, July 2020. (Revised September 2020.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Novel Risks

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard and Anette Mikes
      All organizations practice some form of risk management to identify and assess routine risks in their operations, supply chains, strategy, and external environment. These risk management policies, however, fail in the presence of novelty. Novel risks arise from...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Policy; Failure; Organizational Change and Adaptation
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard, and Anette Mikes. "Novel Risks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-094, March 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      rTSR: Properties, Determinants, and Consequences of Benchmark Choice

      By: Paul Ma, Jee-Eun Shin and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We develop a measurement-error framework for assessing the quality of relative-performance metrics designed to filter out the systematic component of performance and analyze relative total shareholder return (rTSR)—the predominant metric market participants use to...  View Details
      Keywords: Relative TSR; Relative Performance Evaluation; Systematic Risk; Board Of Directors; Compensation Consultants; Style Effects; Executive Compensation; Performance Evaluation; Corporate Governance
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      Ma, Paul, Jee-Eun Shin, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "rTSR: Properties, Determinants, and Consequences of Benchmark Choice." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-112, April 2019. (Revised May 2021.)
      • June 2017
      • Case

      Veolia: Resourcing the World

      By: Gautam Ahuja, Tarun Khanna, Kristina Maslauskaite and Vincent Dessain
      In March 2016, Antoine Frérot, CEO of Veolia, a global environmental services provider, was undergoing an important transformation of the company. In 2013, Frérot presented a growth strategy that focused on increasing the share of industrial clients, enhancing growth...  View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Circular; Emerging Markets; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Growth and Development Strategy; Economy
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      Ahuja, Gautam, Tarun Khanna, Kristina Maslauskaite, and Vincent Dessain. "Veolia: Resourcing the World." Harvard Business School Case 717-505, June 2017.
      • April 2017
      • Article

      Financing Risk and Innovation

      By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
      We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Financing and Loans; Innovation and Invention
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      Nanda, Ramana, and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf. "Financing Risk and Innovation." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 901–918.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management

      By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang
      In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's...  View Details
      Keywords: Discretionary Accruals; Uncertainty; Implied Volatility; Earnings Response Coefficient; Risk and Uncertainty; Earnings Management; Financial Markets
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      Stein, Luke C.D., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-103, March 2016. (Revised April 2017.)
      • December 2014
      • Article

      When to Sell Your Idea: Theory and Evidence from the Movie Industry

      By: Hong Luo
      I study a model of investment and sale of ideas and test its empirical implications using a novel data set from the market for original movie ideas. Consistent with the theoretical results, I find that buyers are reluctant to meet unproven sellers for early-stage...  View Details
      Keywords: Market For Ideas; Information Asymmetry; Expropriation Risk; Intermediary; Intellectual Property Protection; Strategy; Intellectual Property; Film Entertainment; Sales; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Luo, Hong. "When to Sell Your Idea: Theory and Evidence from the Movie Industry." Management Science 60, no. 12 (December 2014): 3067–3086.
      • June 2014
      • Article

      Frictions in Shadow Banking: Evidence from the Lending Behavior of Money Market Funds

      By: Sergey Chernenko and Adi Sunderam
      We document the consequences of money market fund risk taking during the European sovereign debt crisis. Using a novel data set of security-level holdings of prime money market funds, we show that funds with large exposures to risky Eurozone banks suffered significant...  View Details
      Keywords: Money Market Mutual Funds; European Sovereign Debt Crisis; Runs; Contagion; Risk Taking; Investment Funds; Financial Crisis; Europe
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      Chernenko, Sergey, and Adi Sunderam. "Frictions in Shadow Banking: Evidence from the Lending Behavior of Money Market Funds." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 6 (June 2014): 1717–1750.
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