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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (770)
      • Faculty Publications  (71)

      Monetary Policy Remove Monetary Policy →

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      Monetary Policy and Global Banking
      Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (C)
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      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Rate-Amplifying Investor Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright
      Long-term nominal interest rates are known to be highly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. We find that, since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between...  View Details
      Keywords: Conundrum; Monetary Policy Transmission; Interest Rates
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      Hanson, Samuel G., David O. Lucca, and Jonathan H. Wright. "Rate-Amplifying Investor Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates." Working Paper, December 2020.
      • December 2020
      • Article

      Monetary Policy and Global Banking

      By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
      Global banks use their global balance sheets to respond to local monetary policy. However, sources and uses of funds are often denominated in different currencies. This leads to a foreign exchange (FX) exposure that banks need to hedge. If cross-currency flows are...  View Details
      Keywords: Global Banks; Monetary Policy Transmission; Cross-border Lending; Banks And Banking; Financial Markets; Global Range
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      Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "Monetary Policy and Global Banking." Journal of Finance 75, no. 6 (December 2020): 3055–3095.
      • 2020
      • Chapter

      Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. Additionally, emerging countries are increasingly deviating from inflation targeting regimes, managing their exchange rate and engaging in...  View Details
      Keywords: Reserves; Exchange Rate; Sovereign Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; policy
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy." In Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities: New Practices in Managing International Foreign Exchange Reserves, edited by Jacob Bjorheim. Springer, 2020. (Book link.)
      • June 2020
      • Article

      U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles

      By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
      Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,...  View Details
      Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; policy; Credit; Emerging Markets
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      Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles." Journal of Monetary Economics 112 (June 2020): 57–76.
      • May 2020
      • Article

      How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Christopher Palmer
      We document the transmission of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve to the real economy using rich borrower-linked mortgage-market data and an identification strategy based on mortgage market segmentation. We find that central bank QE1 MBS purchases...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Mbs; Quantitative Easing; Lsap; Refinancing; Deleveraging; Harp; Gse; Central Banking; Global Range; Financing And Loans; Credit; United States
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, and Christopher Palmer. "How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel." Review of Economic Studies 87, no. 3 (May 2020): 1498–1528.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Tannya Cai
      The HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker is an initiative by the Business, Government and the International Economy (BGIE) unit at Harvard Business School (HBS) to collect and standardize economic policies implemented as a response to the coronavirus pandemic around the...  View Details
      Keywords: Covid-19; Economics; policy; Health Pandemics; Government And Politics; Global Range
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Tannya Cai. "HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-110, April 2020. (Available at www.globalpolicytracker.com.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Costly External Financing and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

      By: Emily Williams
      I provide new evidence that large and small banks have different external financing costs, which generates cross sectional variation in a deposits market pricing power channel of monetary policy transmission. I do so by exploiting a natural experiment using anti-trust...  View Details
      Keywords: External Financing; Monetary Policy Transmission; Experiment; Banks And Banking; Financing And Loans; Interest Rates
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      Williams, Emily. "Costly External Financing and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Natural Experiment." Working Paper, April 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel

      By: Victoria Ivashina, Luc Laeven and Enrique Moral-Benito
      Using credit registry data for Spain and Peru, we document that four main types of commercial credit—asset-based loans, cash flow loans, trade finance and leasing—are easily identifiable and represent the bulk of corporate credit. We show that credit growth dynamics...  View Details
      Keywords: Bank Credit; Loan Types; Bank Lending Channel; Credit Registry; Banks And Banking; Credit; Financing And Loans
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      Ivashina, Victoria, Luc Laeven, and Enrique Moral-Benito. "Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27056, April 2020.
      • January 2020
      • Teaching Note

      Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      For decades, Chile enjoyed the stability of being the world’s largest producer of copper. Keynes would have advised that this period of growth would have been the time for the government to save, that “the boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the...  View Details
      Keywords: Copper Production; Protests; Economic Slowdown And Stagnation; Metals And Minerals; Production; Economy; Emerging Markets; Chile
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 320-054, January 2020.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Regulatory Limits to Risk Management

      By: Ishita Sen
      Using derivative positions and a regulatory change that results in different regulatory risk sensitivities for economically similar products, I show that inconsistencies in regulatory incentives restrict hedging and increase shadow insurance for U.S. life insurers....  View Details
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      Sen, Ishita. "Regulatory Limits to Risk Management." Working Paper, September 2019.
      • 2019
      • Chapter

      Monetary Policy—‘Whatever It Takes within Our (New?) Mandate’

      By: Huw Pill
      This paper discusses whether the UK's monetary policy framework needs to be reviewed in the light of experience during and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. It concludes that, while the inflation targeting framework has generally proved robust, the Bank...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Money; policy; United Kingdom
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      Pill, Huw. "Monetary Policy—‘Whatever It Takes within Our (New?) Mandate’." Chap. 3 in Renewing our Monetary Vows: Open Letters to the Governor of the Bank of England, edited by Richard Barwell and Jagjit Chadha, 35–52. London: National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), 2019.
      • 2019
      • White Paper

      Impact-Weighted Financial Accounts: The Missing Piece for an Impact Economy

      By: George Serafeim, T. Robert Zochowski and Jennifer Downing
      Reimagining capitalism is an imperative. We need to create a more inclusive and sustainable form of capitalism that works for every person and the planet. Massive environmental damage, growing income and wealth disparity, stress, and depression within developed...  View Details
      Keywords: Impact-weighted Accounts; Iwai; Background; Economic Systems; Economy; Corporate Social Responsibility And Impact; Measurement And Metrics; Financial Statements
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      Serafeim, George, T. Robert Zochowski, and Jennifer Downing. "Impact-Weighted Financial Accounts: The Missing Piece for an Impact Economy." White Paper, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA, September 2019.
      • April 2019 (Revised April 2020)
      • Case

      Reaganomics: Impact and Legacy

      By: Tom Nicholas, John Masko and Matthew G. Preble
      During the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan and his administration instituted several far-reaching economic policies that had both near- and long-term impacts on such aspects of the U.S. economy as monetary policy, inflation, the tax structure, and the role of...  View Details
      Keywords: Wealth And Poverty; Business And Government Relations; Leadership; Taxation; Government Administration; Government Legislation; Inflation And Deflation; Money; Economy; Economic Slowdown And Stagnation; Economic Growth; Equality And Inequality; United States
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      Nicholas, Tom, John Masko, and Matthew G. Preble. "Reaganomics: Impact and Legacy." Harvard Business School Case 819-007, April 2019. (Revised April 2020.)
      • June 2018
      • Article

      The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy

      By: Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam
      We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: (i) the central bank has some private information about its long-run target for the policy rate, and (ii) the central bank is averse to bond-market volatility. In this setting, discretionary monetary policy...  View Details
      Keywords: Central Banking; Interest Rates; policy; Bonds; Financial Markets
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      Stein, Jeremy C., and Adi Sunderam. "The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy." Journal of Finance 73, no. 3 (June 2018): 1015–1060.
      • October 22, 2012
      • Article

      Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Benjamin Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Rodney Ramcharan, Amit Seru and Vincent Yao
      Exploiting variation in the timing of resets of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), we find that a sizable decline in mortgage payments (up to 50%) induces a significant increase in car purchases (up to 35%). This effect is attenuated by voluntary deleveraging. Borrowers...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Household Finance; Refinancing; Contract Rigidities; Debt Rigidity; Mpc; Deleveraging; Personal Finance; Household; policy; Borrowing And Debt; Macroeconomics
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, Benjamin Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Rodney Ramcharan, Amit Seru, and Vincent Yao. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging." American Economic Review 107, no. 11 (November 2017): 3550–3588. (Note: this is a combined version of working papers Monetary Policy Pass-Through: Household Consumption and Voluntary Deleveraging by M. Di Maggio, A. Kermani and R. Ramcharan previously Revise & Resubmit at American Economic Review and Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy by B. Keys, T. Piskorski, A. Seru, and V. Yao previously Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Political Economy.)
      • September 2017
      • Article

      The Belief in a Favorable Future

      By: Todd Rogers, Don A. Moore and Michael I. Norton
      People believe that future others’ preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own. People holding a particular view (e.g., support of President Trump) are more likely to believe that future others will share their view than to believe that future others...  View Details
      Keywords: Social Cognition; Judgment; Prediction; Forecasting; False Consensus; Donation; Open Data; Open Materials; Preregistered; Forecasting And Prediction; Perception; Values And Beliefs; Behavior
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      Rogers, Todd, Don A. Moore, and Michael I. Norton. "The Belief in a Favorable Future." Psychological Science 28, no. 9 (September 2017): 1290–1301.
      • 2016
      • Article

      The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
      We argue that the Federal Reserve should use its balance sheet to help reduce a key threat to financial stability: the tendency for private-sector financial intermediaries to engage in excessive amounts of maturity transformation—i.e., to finance risky assets using...  View Details
      Keywords: Central Banking; policy; Risk Management; Public Administration Industry; United States
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Gregory Hanson, and Jeremy C. Stein. "The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool." Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) (2016): 335–397.
      • 2017
      • Chapter

      Non-Standard Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Developing an Appropriate Macrofinancial Policy Mix

      By: Huw Pill and Lucrezia Reichlin
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      Pill, Huw, and Lucrezia Reichlin. "Non-Standard Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Developing an Appropriate Macrofinancial Policy Mix." Chap. 1 in Preparing for the Next Financial Crisis: Policies, Tools and Models, edited by Esa Jokivuolle and Radu Tunaru, 8–25. Cambridge University Press, 2017.
      • 2016
      • Chapter

      Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
      We present a model of the yield curve in which the central bank can provide market participants with forward guidance on both future short rates and on future Quantitative Easing (QE) operations, which affect bond supply. Forward guidance on short rates works through...  View Details
      Keywords: Central Banking; Financial Markets
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Gregory Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply." In Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edited by Elias Albagli, Diego Saravia, and Michael Woodford, 11–62. Santiago: Banco Central de Chile, 2016. (Working Paper version: NBER Working Paper No. 21750 Here.)
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Self-Employment Dynamics and the Returns to Entrepreneurship

      By: Eleanor W. Dillon and Christopher T. Stanton
      Small business owners and others in self-employment have the option to transition to paid work. If there is initial uncertainty about entrepreneurial earnings, this option increases the expected lifetime value of self-employment relative to pay in a single year. This...  View Details
      Keywords: Self-employed; Entrepreneurship; Small Business; Business Earnings; Entrepreneurship; Ownership; Compensation And Benefits
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      Dillon, Eleanor W., and Christopher T. Stanton. "Self-Employment Dynamics and the Returns to Entrepreneurship." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-022, September 2016. (Revised March 2018.)
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      Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (C)
      → Search All HBS Web
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