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- 2022
- Working Paper
What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?
By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon
We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...
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Keywords:
Uncertainty;
Policy Uncertainty;
Stock Market;
Financial Markets;
Volatility;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Policy;
Newspapers
Baker, Scott R., Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Marco Sammon. "What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?" Working Paper, February 2022.
- November 2021 (Revised January 2023)
- Case
The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939
By: Alberto Cavallo, Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
The Great Depression was, by far, the worst economic contraction of the twentieth century, and some of the most important ideas about both fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the century were developed in response to it. The economic collapse, which...
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Keywords:
Great Depression;
Economic Conditions;
Unemployment;
Homelessness;
Financial Crisis;
History;
Economy;
Policy;
Poverty;
Social Issues;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
Cavallo, Alberto, Sophus A. Reinert, and Federica Gabrieli. "The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939." Harvard Business School Case 722-034, November 2021. (Revised January 2023.)
- April 2021 (Revised August 2021)
- Case
Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (A)
By: Navid Mojir and Gamze Yucaoglu
Borusan Cat is an international distributor of Caterpillar heavy machines. Esra Durgun (Director of Strategy, Digitization, and Innovation) and Ozgur Gunaydin (CEO) seem to have bet their careers on developing Muneccim, a new predictive technology that is designed to...
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Keywords:
Monetization Strategy;
Artificial Intelligence;
AI;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Applications and Software;
Technological Innovation;
Marketing;
Segmentation;
AI and Machine Learning;
Construction Industry;
Turkey
Mojir, Navid, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (A)." Harvard Business School Case 521-053, April 2021. (Revised August 2021.)
- March 2021
- Article
Opting-in to Prosocial Incentives
By: Daniel Schwartz, Elizabeth A. Keenan, Alex Imas and Ayelet Gneezy
The design of effective incentive schemes that are both successful in motivating employees and keeping down costs is of critical importance. Research has demonstrated that prosocial incentives, where individuals’ effort benefits a charitable organization, can sometimes...
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Keywords:
Incentives;
Prosocial Behavior;
Behavioral Economics;
Field Experiments;
Recycling;
Prosocial Motivation;
Decision Making;
Motivation and Incentives;
Behavior
Schwartz, Daniel, Elizabeth A. Keenan, Alex Imas, and Ayelet Gneezy. "Opting-in to Prosocial Incentives." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 163 (March 2021): 132–141.
- June 2020
- Article
U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles
By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,...
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Keywords:
Global Business Cycle;
Monetary Policy;
Reaching For Yield;
Money;
Policy;
Credit;
Emerging Markets
Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles." Journal of Monetary Economics 112 (June 2020): 57–76.
- 2020
- Working Paper
HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker
By: Alberto Cavallo and Tannya Cai
The HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker is an initiative by the Business, Government and the International Economy (BGIE) unit at Harvard Business School (HBS) to collect and standardize economic policies implemented as a response to the coronavirus pandemic around the...
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Cavallo, Alberto, and Tannya Cai. "HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-110, April 2020. (Available at www.globalpolicytracker.com.)
- January 2020
- Teaching Note
Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation
By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
For decades, Chile enjoyed the stability of being the world’s largest producer of copper. Keynes would have advised that this period of growth would have been the time for the government to save, that “the boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the...
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- 2019
- White Paper
Impact-Weighted Financial Accounts: The Missing Piece for an Impact Economy
By: George Serafeim, T. Robert Zochowski and Jennifer Downing
Reimagining capitalism is an imperative. We need to create a more inclusive and sustainable form of capitalism that works for every person and the planet. Massive environmental damage, growing income and wealth disparity, stress, and depression within developed...
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Keywords:
Impact-Weighted Accounts;
IWAI;
Background;
Economic Systems;
Economy;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Measurement and Metrics;
Financial Statements
Serafeim, George, T. Robert Zochowski, and Jennifer Downing. "Impact-Weighted Financial Accounts: The Missing Piece for an Impact Economy." White Paper, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA, September 2019.
- 2019
- Article
More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors
By: Alberto Cavallo
I study how online competition, with its shrinking margins, algorithmic pricing technologies, and the transparency of the web, can change the pricing behavior of large retailers in the U.S. and affect aggregate inflation dynamics. In particular, I show that in the past...
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Keywords:
Amazon;
Online Prices;
Inflation;
Uniform Pricing;
Price Stickiness;
Monetary Economics;
Economics;
Macroeconomics;
Inflation and Deflation;
System Shocks;
United States
Cavallo, Alberto. "More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors." Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) (2019).
- April 2019 (Revised April 2020)
- Case
Reaganomics: Impact and Legacy
By: Tom Nicholas, John Masko and Matthew G. Preble
During the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan and his administration instituted several far-reaching economic policies that had both near- and long-term impacts on such aspects of the U.S. economy as monetary policy, inflation, the tax structure, and the role of...
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Keywords:
Wealth and Poverty;
Business and Government Relations;
Leadership;
Taxation;
Government Administration;
Government Legislation;
Inflation and Deflation;
Money;
Economy;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation;
Economic Growth;
Equality and Inequality;
United States
Nicholas, Tom, John Masko, and Matthew G. Preble. "Reaganomics: Impact and Legacy." Harvard Business School Case 819-007, April 2019. (Revised April 2020.)
- March 2019
- Article
A Structural Analysis of the Role of Superstars in Crowdsourcing Contests
By: Shunyuan Zhang, Param Singh and Anindya Ghose
We investigate the long-term impact of competing against superstars in crowdsourcing contests. Using a unique 50-month longitudinal panel data set on 1677 software design crowdsourcing contests, we illustrate a learning effect where participants are able to improve...
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Keywords:
Crowdsourcing Contests;
Superstar Effect;
Bayesian Learning;
Utility;
Economics Of Information System;
Dynamic Structural Model;
Dynamic Programming;
Markov Chain;
Monte Carlo;
Learning;
Competition;
Performance Improvement
Zhang, Shunyuan, Param Singh, and Anindya Ghose. "A Structural Analysis of the Role of Superstars in Crowdsourcing Contests." Information Systems Research 30, no. 1 (March 2019): 15–33.
- August 2018
- Case
Christine Lagarde
By: Julie Battilana, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Vanessa Ampelas and Noemie Assenat
For a modular presentation of the same material, please see “Christine Lagarde (A): A French Prime Minister Calls” (HBS No. 419-017), “Christine Lagarde (B): Being a Public Servant” (HBS No. 419-018), and “Christine Lagarde (C): Managing the IMF” (HBS No. 419-019)....
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Keywords:
Change;
Personal Development and Career;
Power and Influence;
Leadership;
Gender;
Leading Change
Battilana, Julie, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Vanessa Ampelas, and Noemie Assenat. "Christine Lagarde." Harvard Business School Case 419-016, August 2018.
- August 2018
- Case
Christine Lagarde (B): Being a Public Servant
By: Julie Battilana and Carin-Isabel Knoop
This case covers the career of Christine Lagarde from 2005 to 2011 after she joins the French Government. After serving several grueling years as Finance Minister during the financial crisis that started in 2007/2008, she is being considered as the next Managing...
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Keywords:
Personal Development and Career;
Government and Politics;
Financial Crisis;
Power and Influence
Battilana, Julie, and Carin-Isabel Knoop. "Christine Lagarde (B): Being a Public Servant." Harvard Business School Case 419-018, August 2018.
- August 2018
- Case
Christine Lagarde (C): Managing the IMF
By: Julie Battilana and Carin-Isabel Knoop
This case covers the career of Christine Lagarde from 2011 to 2018 as she takes the helm of a troubled multilateral organization during a time of deepening economic turmoil. As the first female leader of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and as a non-economist,...
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Keywords:
Personal Development and Career;
Power and Influence;
Change Management;
Global Range;
Gender;
Equality and Inequality;
Climate Change
Battilana, Julie, and Carin-Isabel Knoop. "Christine Lagarde (C): Managing the IMF." Harvard Business School Case 419-019, August 2018.
- June 2018
- Case
Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt
By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
In April 2018, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was again in Washington to petition Donald Trump. After years of rapid, export-led growth, Japan had slumped into recession in 1991 and never really recovered. For the past 27 years, its economy has grown at 1.1% annually,...
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Keywords:
Deflation;
Debt;
Country Analysis;
Monetary Expansion;
Population Growth;
Inflation and Deflation;
Borrowing and Debt;
Economy;
Energy;
National Security;
Japan
Vietor, Richard H.K., and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason. "Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt." Harvard Business School Case 718-063, June 2018.
- January 2018 (Revised March 2018)
- Case
Portugal: Can Socialism Survive?
By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
Portugal was not ready to join the European Monetary Union in 1999. With strong unions, weak competitiveness, and a legacy of socialism, it could not compete with north-European countries. After borrowing extensively to fund deficits, Portugal went into debt crisis in...
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Vietor, Richard H.K., and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason. "Portugal: Can Socialism Survive?" Harvard Business School Case 718-024, January 2018. (Revised March 2018.)
- October 22, 2012
- Article
Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging
By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Benjamin Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Rodney Ramcharan, Amit Seru and Vincent Yao
Exploiting variation in the timing of resets of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), we find that a sizable decline in mortgage payments (up to 50%) induces a significant increase in car purchases (up to 35%). This effect is attenuated by voluntary deleveraging. Borrowers...
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Keywords:
Monetary Policy;
Household Finance;
Refinancing;
Contract Rigidities;
Debt Rigidity;
MPC;
Deleveraging;
Personal Finance;
Household;
Policy;
Borrowing and Debt;
Macroeconomics
Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, Benjamin Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Rodney Ramcharan, Amit Seru, and Vincent Yao. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging." American Economic Review 107, no. 11 (November 2017): 3550–3588. (Note: this is a combined version of working papers Monetary Policy Pass-Through: Household Consumption and Voluntary Deleveraging by M. Di Maggio, A. Kermani and R. Ramcharan previously Revise & Resubmit at American Economic Review and Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy by B. Keys, T. Piskorski, A. Seru, and V. Yao previously Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Political Economy.)
- September 2017
- Case
Christine Lagarde
By: Julie Battilana, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Vanessa Ampelas and Noemie Assenat
The case covers the youth and career trajectory of Christine Lagarde across her time at Baker & McKenzie, as a minister in the government of France and as the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The case highlights the challenges and opportunities she faced...
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Keywords:
Change;
Personal Development and Career;
Power and Influence;
Leadership;
Gender;
Leading Change
Battilana, Julie, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Vanessa Ampelas, and Noemie Assenat. "Christine Lagarde." Harvard Business School Case 418-007, September 2017.
- April 2017 (Revised February 2020)
- Case
Restructuring Ukraine
By: Kristin Mugford, Seema Amble and Tian Feng
In June 2015, Ukraine found itself struggling with a volatile and devalued currency, dramatically diminished foreign reserves, and a projected financing shortfall of $40 billion. Ukraine’s new government sought to return the nation to stability following political...
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Keywords:
Exchange Rates;
Politics;
Macroeconomics;
Financial Crisis;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Restructuring;
Economy;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Banks and Banking;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation;
Bonds;
Sovereign Finance;
Capital Markets;
Credit;
Debt Securities;
Financial Liquidity;
Financial Markets;
Government and Politics;
Ukraine
Mugford, Kristin, Seema Amble, and Tian Feng. "Restructuring Ukraine." Harvard Business School Case 217-049, April 2017. (Revised February 2020.)
- February 2016 (Revised July 2017)
- Case
Leadership and Independence at the Federal Reserve
By: David Moss and Marc Campasano
“From the Great Depression, to the stagflation of the seventies, to the current economic crisis caused by the housing bubble, every economic downturn suffered by this country over the past century can be traced to Federal Reserve policy.” Ron Paul, a Republican from...
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Keywords:
Government Legislation;
Central Banking;
Policy;
Financial Crisis;
Business and Government Relations;
Banking Industry;
Public Administration Industry;
United States
Moss, David, and Marc Campasano. "Leadership and Independence at the Federal Reserve." Harvard Business School Case 716-040, February 2016. (Revised July 2017.)