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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (368)
      • Faculty Publications  (72)

      Monetary Economics Remove Monetary Economics →

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?

      By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon
      We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...  View Details
      Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy; Newspapers
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      Baker, Scott R., Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Marco Sammon. "What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?" Working Paper, February 2022.
      • November 2021 (Revised January 2023)
      • Case

      The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
      The Great Depression was, by far, the worst economic contraction of the twentieth century, and some of the most important ideas about both fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the century were developed in response to it. The economic collapse, which...  View Details
      Keywords: Great Depression; Economic Conditions; Unemployment; Homelessness; Financial Crisis; History; Economy; Policy; Poverty; Social Issues; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Sophus A. Reinert, and Federica Gabrieli. "The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939." Harvard Business School Case 722-034, November 2021. (Revised January 2023.)
      • April 2021 (Revised August 2021)
      • Case

      Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (A)

      By: Navid Mojir and Gamze Yucaoglu
      Borusan Cat is an international distributor of Caterpillar heavy machines. Esra Durgun (Director of Strategy, Digitization, and Innovation) and Ozgur Gunaydin (CEO) seem to have bet their careers on developing Muneccim, a new predictive technology that is designed to...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetization Strategy; Artificial Intelligence; AI; Forecasting and Prediction; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Marketing; Segmentation; AI and Machine Learning; Construction Industry; Turkey
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      Mojir, Navid, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (A)." Harvard Business School Case 521-053, April 2021. (Revised August 2021.)
      • March 2021
      • Article

      Opting-in to Prosocial Incentives

      By: Daniel Schwartz, Elizabeth A. Keenan, Alex Imas and Ayelet Gneezy
      The design of effective incentive schemes that are both successful in motivating employees and keeping down costs is of critical importance. Research has demonstrated that prosocial incentives, where individuals’ effort benefits a charitable organization, can sometimes...  View Details
      Keywords: Incentives; Prosocial Behavior; Behavioral Economics; Field Experiments; Recycling; Prosocial Motivation; Decision Making; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior
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      Schwartz, Daniel, Elizabeth A. Keenan, Alex Imas, and Ayelet Gneezy. "Opting-in to Prosocial Incentives." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 163 (March 2021): 132–141.
      • June 2020
      • Article

      U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles

      By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
      Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,...  View Details
      Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; Policy; Credit; Emerging Markets
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      Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles." Journal of Monetary Economics 112 (June 2020): 57–76.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Tannya Cai
      The HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker is an initiative by the Business, Government and the International Economy (BGIE) unit at Harvard Business School (HBS) to collect and standardize economic policies implemented as a response to the coronavirus pandemic around the...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Economics; Policy; Health Pandemics; Government and Politics; Global Range
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Tannya Cai. "HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-110, April 2020. (Available at www.globalpolicytracker.com.)
      • January 2020
      • Teaching Note

      Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      For decades, Chile enjoyed the stability of being the world’s largest producer of copper. Keynes would have advised that this period of growth would have been the time for the government to save, that “the boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the...  View Details
      Keywords: Copper Production; Protests; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Metals and Minerals; Production; Economy; Emerging Markets; Chile
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 320-054, January 2020.
      • 2019
      • White Paper

      Impact-Weighted Financial Accounts: The Missing Piece for an Impact Economy

      By: George Serafeim, T. Robert Zochowski and Jennifer Downing
      Reimagining capitalism is an imperative. We need to create a more inclusive and sustainable form of capitalism that works for every person and the planet. Massive environmental damage, growing income and wealth disparity, stress, and depression within developed...  View Details
      Keywords: Impact-Weighted Accounts; IWAI; Background; Economic Systems; Economy; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Measurement and Metrics; Financial Statements
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      Serafeim, George, T. Robert Zochowski, and Jennifer Downing. "Impact-Weighted Financial Accounts: The Missing Piece for an Impact Economy." White Paper, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA, September 2019.
      • 2019
      • Article

      More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors

      By: Alberto Cavallo
      I study how online competition, with its shrinking margins, algorithmic pricing technologies, and the transparency of the web, can change the pricing behavior of large retailers in the U.S. and affect aggregate inflation dynamics. In particular, I show that in the past...  View Details
      Keywords: Amazon; Online Prices; Inflation; Uniform Pricing; Price Stickiness; Monetary Economics; Economics; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; United States
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      Cavallo, Alberto. "More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors." Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) (2019).
      • April 2019 (Revised April 2020)
      • Case

      Reaganomics: Impact and Legacy

      By: Tom Nicholas, John Masko and Matthew G. Preble
      During the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan and his administration instituted several far-reaching economic policies that had both near- and long-term impacts on such aspects of the U.S. economy as monetary policy, inflation, the tax structure, and the role of...  View Details
      Keywords: Wealth and Poverty; Business and Government Relations; Leadership; Taxation; Government Administration; Government Legislation; Inflation and Deflation; Money; Economy; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Equality and Inequality; United States
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      Nicholas, Tom, John Masko, and Matthew G. Preble. "Reaganomics: Impact and Legacy." Harvard Business School Case 819-007, April 2019. (Revised April 2020.)
      • March 2019
      • Article

      A Structural Analysis of the Role of Superstars in Crowdsourcing Contests

      By: Shunyuan Zhang, Param Singh and Anindya Ghose
      We investigate the long-term impact of competing against superstars in crowdsourcing contests. Using a unique 50-month longitudinal panel data set on 1677 software design crowdsourcing contests, we illustrate a learning effect where participants are able to improve...  View Details
      Keywords: Crowdsourcing Contests; Superstar Effect; Bayesian Learning; Utility; Economics Of Information System; Dynamic Structural Model; Dynamic Programming; Markov Chain; Monte Carlo; Learning; Competition; Performance Improvement
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      Zhang, Shunyuan, Param Singh, and Anindya Ghose. "A Structural Analysis of the Role of Superstars in Crowdsourcing Contests." Information Systems Research 30, no. 1 (March 2019): 15–33.
      • August 2018
      • Case

      Christine Lagarde

      By: Julie Battilana, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Vanessa Ampelas and Noemie Assenat
      For a modular presentation of the same material, please see “Christine Lagarde (A): A French Prime Minister Calls” (HBS No. 419-017), “Christine Lagarde (B): Being a Public Servant” (HBS No. 419-018), and “Christine Lagarde (C): Managing the IMF” (HBS No. 419-019)....  View Details
      Keywords: Change; Personal Development and Career; Power and Influence; Leadership; Gender; Leading Change
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      Battilana, Julie, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Vanessa Ampelas, and Noemie Assenat. "Christine Lagarde." Harvard Business School Case 419-016, August 2018.
      • August 2018
      • Case

      Christine Lagarde (B): Being a Public Servant

      By: Julie Battilana and Carin-Isabel Knoop
      This case covers the career of Christine Lagarde from 2005 to 2011 after she joins the French Government. After serving several grueling years as Finance Minister during the financial crisis that started in 2007/2008, she is being considered as the next Managing...  View Details
      Keywords: Personal Development and Career; Government and Politics; Financial Crisis; Power and Influence
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      Battilana, Julie, and Carin-Isabel Knoop. "Christine Lagarde (B): Being a Public Servant." Harvard Business School Case 419-018, August 2018.
      • August 2018
      • Case

      Christine Lagarde (C): Managing the IMF

      By: Julie Battilana and Carin-Isabel Knoop
      This case covers the career of Christine Lagarde from 2011 to 2018 as she takes the helm of a troubled multilateral organization during a time of deepening economic turmoil. As the first female leader of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and as a non-economist,...  View Details
      Keywords: Personal Development and Career; Power and Influence; Change Management; Global Range; Gender; Equality and Inequality; Climate Change
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      Battilana, Julie, and Carin-Isabel Knoop. "Christine Lagarde (C): Managing the IMF." Harvard Business School Case 419-019, August 2018.
      • June 2018
      • Case

      Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt

      By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
      In April 2018, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was again in Washington to petition Donald Trump. After years of rapid, export-led growth, Japan had slumped into recession in 1991 and never really recovered. For the past 27 years, its economy has grown at 1.1% annually,...  View Details
      Keywords: Deflation; Debt; Country Analysis; Monetary Expansion; Population Growth; Inflation and Deflation; Borrowing and Debt; Economy; Energy; National Security; Japan
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      Vietor, Richard H.K., and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason. "Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt." Harvard Business School Case 718-063, June 2018.
      • January 2018 (Revised March 2018)
      • Case

      Portugal: Can Socialism Survive?

      By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
      Portugal was not ready to join the European Monetary Union in 1999. With strong unions, weak competitiveness, and a legacy of socialism, it could not compete with north-European countries. After borrowing extensively to fund deficits, Portugal went into debt crisis in...  View Details
      Keywords: Economy; Financial Crisis; Economic Systems; Portugal
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      Vietor, Richard H.K., and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason. "Portugal: Can Socialism Survive?" Harvard Business School Case 718-024, January 2018. (Revised March 2018.)
      • October 22, 2012
      • Article

      Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Benjamin Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Rodney Ramcharan, Amit Seru and Vincent Yao
      Exploiting variation in the timing of resets of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), we find that a sizable decline in mortgage payments (up to 50%) induces a significant increase in car purchases (up to 35%). This effect is attenuated by voluntary deleveraging. Borrowers...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Household Finance; Refinancing; Contract Rigidities; Debt Rigidity; MPC; Deleveraging; Personal Finance; Household; Policy; Borrowing and Debt; Macroeconomics
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, Benjamin Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Rodney Ramcharan, Amit Seru, and Vincent Yao. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging." American Economic Review 107, no. 11 (November 2017): 3550–3588. (Note: this is a combined version of working papers Monetary Policy Pass-Through: Household Consumption and Voluntary Deleveraging by M. Di Maggio, A. Kermani and R. Ramcharan previously Revise & Resubmit at American Economic Review and Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy by B. Keys, T. Piskorski, A. Seru, and V. Yao previously Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Political Economy.)
      • September 2017
      • Case

      Christine Lagarde

      By: Julie Battilana, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Vanessa Ampelas and Noemie Assenat
      The case covers the youth and career trajectory of Christine Lagarde across her time at Baker & McKenzie, as a minister in the government of France and as the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The case highlights the challenges and opportunities she faced...  View Details
      Keywords: Change; Personal Development and Career; Power and Influence; Leadership; Gender; Leading Change
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      Battilana, Julie, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Vanessa Ampelas, and Noemie Assenat. "Christine Lagarde." Harvard Business School Case 418-007, September 2017.
      • April 2017 (Revised February 2020)
      • Case

      Restructuring Ukraine

      By: Kristin Mugford, Seema Amble and Tian Feng
      In June 2015, Ukraine found itself struggling with a volatile and devalued currency, dramatically diminished foreign reserves, and a projected financing shortfall of $40 billion. Ukraine’s new government sought to return the nation to stability following political...  View Details
      Keywords: Exchange Rates; Politics; Macroeconomics; Financial Crisis; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Restructuring; Economy; Currency Exchange Rate; Banks and Banking; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Bonds; Sovereign Finance; Capital Markets; Credit; Debt Securities; Financial Liquidity; Financial Markets; Government and Politics; Ukraine
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      Mugford, Kristin, Seema Amble, and Tian Feng. "Restructuring Ukraine." Harvard Business School Case 217-049, April 2017. (Revised February 2020.)
      • February 2016 (Revised July 2017)
      • Case

      Leadership and Independence at the Federal Reserve

      By: David Moss and Marc Campasano
      “From the Great Depression, to the stagflation of the seventies, to the current economic crisis caused by the housing bubble, every economic downturn suffered by this country over the past century can be traced to Federal Reserve policy.” Ron Paul, a Republican from...  View Details
      Keywords: Government Legislation; Central Banking; Policy; Financial Crisis; Business and Government Relations; Banking Industry; Public Administration Industry; United States
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      Moss, David, and Marc Campasano. "Leadership and Independence at the Federal Reserve." Harvard Business School Case 716-040, February 2016. (Revised July 2017.)
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