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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment
By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua Lev Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach...  View Details
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor I. Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to...  View Details
Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior
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  • 2023
  • Article

Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators
By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in...  View Details
Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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  • May 2023
  • Case

Quigley-Simpson & Heppelwhite: The Ad Agency Model in the Age of AI
By: David C. Edelman and James Barnett
In October 2022, Quigley-Simpson & Heppelwhite CEO Carl Fremont considers how the advertising agency will integrate artificial intelligence tools into the business.  View Details
Keywords: Marketing; Strategy; Advertising Industry; United States
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

The Politics of Philanthropy in China
By: Geoffrey Jones and Yuhai Wu
This working paper looks historically at business philanthropy in China. In the West, the literature has distinguished between entrepreneurial and customary philanthropy, while the phenomenon of spiritual philanthropy has been identified in many emerging markets. This...  View Details
Keywords: China; Philanthropy; Ethics; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Moral Sensibility; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Economic Systems; Economic Sectors; China
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  • May 2023
  • Case

Novartis (A): Reimagining Medicine
By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Claudio Freser, Karolin Frankenberger and David Redaschi
This case unfolds around the first-ever approved personalized cancer treatment, how Novartis wrapped it into a new business model design, and how Novartis scaled it. Novartis — one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world — is, among other ventures,...  View Details
Keywords: Switzerland
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  • May 2023
  • Article

Competition in Pricing Algorithms
By: Zach Y. Brown and Alexander J. MacKay
We document new facts about pricing technology using high-frequency data, and we examine the implications for competition. Some online retailers employ technology that allows for more frequent price changes and automated responses to price changes by rivals. Motivated...  View Details
Keywords: Pricing Algorithms; Pricing Frequency; Commitment; Online Competition; Price; Information Technology; Competition
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  • May 2023
  • Article

Decarbonizing Health Care: Engaging Leaders in Change
By: Vivian S. Lee, Kathy Gerwig, Emily Hough, Kedar Mate, Robert Biggio and Robert S. Kaplan
Health care leaders are often surprised to learn that their operations contribute significantly to a warming climate. In addition to their roles as responders to and victims of extreme weather events, health care organizations have an obligation to reduce...  View Details
Keywords: Health Care; Decarbonization; Carbon Emissions; Net-zero Emissions; Climate Change; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach
By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta
We combine standard structural-break methods with high-frequency data to identify shifts in inflation trends. We use this approach to study the inflation dynamics of 25 countries from January 2022 to April 2023 and find evidence of a broad-based slowdown in about half...  View Details
Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price
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  • May 2023
  • Article

Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency
By: Zoë B. Cullen and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson
The public discourse around pay transparency has focused on the direct effect: how workers seek to rectify newly-disclosed pay inequities through renegotiations. The question of how wage-setting and hiring practices of the firm respond in equilibrium has received...  View Details
Keywords: Pay Transparency; Online Labor Market; Privacy; Wage Gap; Corporate Disclosure; Wages; Negotiation
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  • May 2023
  • Article

Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation
By: Elisabeth Kempf, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer and Margarita Tsoutsoura
Does investors' political ideology shape international capital allocation? We provide evidence from two settings—syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds—to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by...  View Details
Keywords: Capital Flows; Syndicated Loans; Mutual Funds; Partisanship; Polarization; Elections; Political Ideology; Banks and Banking; Institutional Investing; Behavioral Finance; Decision Choices and Conditions
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  • April 2023
  • Case

Apple's iPhone Revolution: Pioneering the Circular Economy
By: George Serafeim
When asked to identify an example of a circular economy business model that has generated billions in revenues for a company, ChatGPT, the famous chatbot that in 2022 rocked the world with its ability to perform a variety of tasks, immediately identified and...  View Details
Keywords: Iphone; Smartphone; Waste Management; Recycling; Innovation; Product Upgrade; Product Life Cycle; Sustainability; Climate Impact; Digital; Business Model Innovation; Climate Change; Information Technology; Business Model; Electronics Industry; Information Technology Industry
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  • April 12, 2023
  • Article

Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World
By: Das Narayandas and Arijit Sengupta
Why are some firms better and faster than others at adapting their use of customer data to respond to changing or uncertain marketing conditions? A common thread across faster-acting firms is the use of AI models to predict outcomes at various stages of the customer...  View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Competitive Advantage
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  • April 18, 2023
  • Article

The Rebirth of Software as a Service
By: Frank V. Cespedes and Jacco van der Kooij
Traditional sales models focus on customer acquisition and the “funnel” or “pipeline” metrics that dominate talk about sales. But this approach falls short when applied to a recurring revenue business, where the customer life cycle looks more like a bowtie, not a...  View Details
Keywords: Customers; Sales; Technology Industry
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Using GPT for Market Research
By: James Brand, Ayelet Israeli and Donald Ngwe
Large language models (LLMs) have quickly become popular as labor-augmenting tools for programming, writing, and many other processes that benefit from quick text generation. In this paper we explore the uses and benefits of LLMs for researchers and practitioners who...  View Details
Keywords: Large Language Model; Research; AI and Machine Learning; Analysis; Customers; Consumer Behavior; Technology Industry; Information Technology Industry
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  • April 6, 2023
  • Article

A New NFT Launch Strategy: The Wave Mint
By: Scott Duke Kominers and 1337 Skulls Sers
In an NFT project, the mint—the process by which tokens are initially allocated—largely determines who your community is and how they and the broader market view the project going forward. In this piece, we review a new minting strategy recently introduced by 1337...  View Details
Keywords: NFTs; Mechanism Design; Sales Management; Sales Model; Crypto Economy; Non-fungible Tokens; Networks; Product Launch; Auctions; Market Design
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  • April 2023
  • Case

Fizzy Fusion: When Data-Driven Decision Making Failed
By: Michael Parzen, Eddie Lin, Douglas Ng and Jessie Li
This is a case about a fictional New York beverage company called Fizzy Fusion. The business is facing supply chain and inventory management challenges with its new product, SparklingSip. Despite seeking help from a data science consulting firm, the machine learning...  View Details
Keywords: Supply Chain Management; Production; Risk and Uncertainty; Analytics and Data Science; Food and Beverage Industry
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  • April 2023
  • Article

Inattentive Inference
By: Thomas Graeber
This paper studies how people infer a state of the world from information structures that include additional, payoff-irrelevant states. For example, learning from a customer review about a product’s quality requires accounting for the reviewer’s otherwise irrelevant...  View Details
Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Information Types; Behavior; Knowledge Acquisition
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  • April 2023
  • Article

The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences
By: Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, David B. Huffman and Uwe Sunde
Incentivized choice experiments are a key approach to measuring preferences in economics but are also costly. Survey measures are a low-cost alternative but can suffer from additional forms of measurement error due to their hypothetical nature. This paper seeks to...  View Details
Keywords: Survey Validation; Experiment; Preference Measurement; Surveys; Economics; Behavior; Measurement and Metrics
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  • April 2023
  • Article

The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity
By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'...  View Details
Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Firm Level Data; Innovation; Productivity; Exporting; Importing; Credit Constraints; Currency Exchange Rate; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity
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