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2025
Working Paper

Incentive-Compatible Recovery from Manipulated Signals, with Applications to Decentralized Physical Infrastructure

By: Jason Milionis, Jens Ernstberger, Joseph Bonneau, Scott Duke Kominers and Tim Roughgarden

We introduce the first formal model capturing the elicitation of unverifiable information from a party (the "source") with implicit signals derived by other players (the "observers"). Our model is motivated in part by applications in decentralized physical... View Details

February 21, 2025
Article

How a Company’s Ownership Model Shapes the Mistakes It Makes

Why do some companies continue to thrive for decades and others die after an initial run of success? Like many kinds of accidents, company failure is generally the consequence of cascading effects that combine to overwhelm a previously effective strategy. But the... View Details

Keywords: Business Exit or Shutdown; Failure; Ownership

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February 2025
Tutorial

Preparing Business Leaders for an Era of Climate Instability: Understanding and Managing Physical Climate Risk

By: Michael W. Toffel and Spencer Glendon

In this compelling video, Spencer Glendon, founder of Probable Futures and Executive Fellow at Harvard Business School, describes the profound implications of climate change for businesses, the economy, and societies around the world. Drawing from his background in... View Details

Keywords: Risk; Uncertainty; Modeling; Climate Change; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management

February 2025
Supplement

eBee: Affordable Mobility for Africa

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Gamze Yucaoglu and Jordan Mitchell

The case opens in March 2023, as Sten van der Ham and Jaap Maljers, CEO and co-founder of eBee, an electric bike (e-bike) company in Africa, are contemplating the different avenues for growth and path to profitability for the young and ambitious company. In 2023, the... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Value Creation; Competition; Logistics; Profit; Resource Allocation; Expansion; Corporate Strategy

2025
Working Paper

Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning

By: Liangzong Ma, Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli

Reinforcement learning (RL) offers potential for optimizing sequences of customer interactions by modeling the relationships between customer states, company actions, and long-term value. However, its practical implementation often faces significant challenges.... View Details

Keywords: Dynamic Policy; Deep Reinforcement Learning; Representation Learning; Dynamic Difficulty Adjustment; Latent Variable Models; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Foreign Direct Investment; Analytics and Data Science

2025
Working Paper

A Cognitive Theory of Reasoning and Choice

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Giacomo Lanzani and Andrei Shleifer

We present a theory of decisions in which attention to the features of choice options is determined by the decision maker's categorization of the current choice problem in a set of problems she solved in the past. Categorization depends on goal-relevant as well as... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Decision Choices and Conditions

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January–March 2025
Article

Transitioning from Responsible and Reactive to Deeply Responsible and Proactive International Business

By: Geoffrey G. Jones, Teresa da Silva Lopes, Pavida Pananond, Rob van Tulder, Noemi Sinkovics and Rudolf R. Sinkovics

This article aims to explore the role of multinational enterprises in addressing grand societal challenges, emphasizing the need for integrating environmental and social aspects into business models. It offers an analysis of how principles and values can guide engaged... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business Model; Multinational Firms and Management

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January 2025
Technical Note

AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix

By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart

This technical note introduces the confusion matrix as a foundational tool in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) for assessing the performance of classification models, focusing on their reliability for decision-making. A confusion matrix... View Details

Keywords: AI; Reliability; Confusion Matrix

January 2025
Case

Intuition Robotics: An AI Companion for Older Adults

By: Amit Goldenberg, Elie Ofek and Orna Dan

Intuition Robotics, a startup that makes an AI companion robot to alleviate older adults’ loneliness, debates whether to pursue a B2C model or B2G route. If it opts for the government vertical, it must determine how to negotiate a favorable deal. Two weeks after... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Business Startups; AI and Machine Learning; Technology Adoption; Product Launch; Market Entry and Exit; Negotiation Offer; Business and Government Relations; Health Industry; Technology Industry; United States; New York (state, US)

January 2025
Case

Untapped Global: Financing Africa’s Missing Middle

By: Raymond Kluender and Emanuele Colonnelli

In November 2024, Jim Chu, founder and CEO of Untapped Global, faced mounting internal tensions over the company’s strategic direction. Untapped had developed a data-driven revenue-based financing (RBF) model to address the “missing middle” problem—the $5.2 trillion... View Details

January 2025
Supplement

Balancing Impact: Modeling the Future at British International Investment

By: Shawn Cole and Jonah Zahnd

Supplement to 225-047, “Balancing Impact: Modeling the Future at British International Investment.” View Details

January 2025
Supplement

Balancing Impact: Modeling the Future at British International Investment

By: Shawn Cole and Jonah Zahnd

Supplement to 225-047, “Balancing Impact: Modeling the Future at British International Investment.” View Details

January 2025
Supplement

Balancing Impact: Modeling the Future at British International Investment

By: Shawn Cole and Jonah Zahnd

Supplement to HBS Case No. 225-047, “Balancing Impact: Modeling the Future at British International Investment.” View Details

January 2025
Teaching Note

Balancing Impact: Modeling the Future at British International Investment

By: Shawn Cole and Jonah Zahnd

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 225-047. View Details

January 2025
Supplement

Hippo: Weathering the Storm of the Home Insurance Crisis (B)

By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan

Rick McCathron, CEO of Hippo, was optimistic about the InsurTech's path to profitability after navigating the financial uncertainties of 2022. By bundling their home insurance services with third-parties and established insurance incumbents, Hippo was adopting a... View Details

January 2025
Case

Olive Young: Formulating Beauty Innovation

By: Rebecca Karp and Shu Lin

Sun-jung Lee, CEO of Olive Young, South Korea's largest beauty and health retailer, saw significant potential in the U.S. market and considered three pathways: replicating Korea's omnichannel model, adopting a digital-native approach with curated products, or relying... View Details

Keywords: Retail Industry; Beauty and Cosmetics Industry; South Korea; East Asia

January 2025
Course Overview Note

Overview Principles of Financial Modeling for Small Companies in Investing for Impact

By: Emily R. McComb

January 2025
Technical Note

Get Cool: Air Conditioning Industry Background

By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter and Jacob A. Small

The “air conditioning paradox” is tied to climate change: the more the planet warms, the greater the need for cooling (due to the dangers of extreme heat as well as comfort within buildings), but the use of electricity-powered AC contributes to further warming. There... View Details

Keywords: Appliances; Global Warming; Climate Change; Energy Efficiency; United States

January 2025
Case

PayJoy: Financing for the Next Billion

By: Boris Groysberg and Sarah L. Abbott

PayJoy, an impact-driven financial technology company founded in 2015, provides smartphone financing and other financial products to customers who lack access to traditional credit products. As of early 2025, PayJoy had issued $2.5 billion in loans to 13 million... View Details

January 2025
Case

DMC Biotechnologies: Using Techno-Economic Modeling to Guide Production Strategy

By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Chris Burk and Jim Matheson

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