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      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation

      By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor I. Bojinov
      Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to...  View Details
      Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior
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      Ham, Dae Woong, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-070, May 2023.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators

      By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in...  View Details
      Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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      Jakubowski, Benjamin, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators." Journal of Machine Learning Research 24, no. 133 (2023): 1–57.
      • May 2023 (Revised June 2023)
      • Case

      Harvard University and Urban Mining Industries: Decarbonizing the Supply Chain

      By: Shirley Lu and Robert S. Kaplan
      The case describes Harvard University’s consideration to decarbonize its supply chain by replacing cement with a low-carbon substitute called Pozzotive®. Developed and produced by Urban Mining Industries, Pozzotive® is a ground-glass material made with post-consumer...  View Details
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      Lu, Shirley, and Robert S. Kaplan. "Harvard University and Urban Mining Industries: Decarbonizing the Supply Chain." Harvard Business School Case 123-076, May 2023. (Revised June 2023.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta
      We combine standard structural-break methods with high-frequency data to identify shifts in inflation trends. We use this approach to study the inflation dynamics of 25 countries from January 2022 to April 2023 and find evidence of a broad-based slowdown in about half...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta. "Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach." Working Paper, May 2023. (Preliminary draft.)
      • 2023
      • Article

      Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations.

      By: Edward McFowland III and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi
      Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, that is, with a node’s network partners being informative about the node’s attributes and therefore its...  View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Homophily; Social Networks; Peer Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Power and Influence; Mathematical Methods
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      McFowland III, Edward, and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi. "Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 707–718.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Remote Work across Jobs, Companies, and Space

      By: Stephen Hansen, Peter John Lambert, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Raffaella Sadun and Bledi Taska
      The pandemic catalyzed an enduring shift to remote work. To measure and characterize this shift, we examine more than 250 million job vacancy postings across five English-speaking countries. Our measurements rely on a state-of-the-art language-processing framework...  View Details
      Keywords: Remote Work; Hybrid Work; Work From Home (WFH); Pandemic; Labor Market; Job Search; Job Design and Levels; Trends
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      Hansen, Stephen, Peter John Lambert, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Raffaella Sadun, and Bledi Taska. "Remote Work across Jobs, Companies, and Space." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31007, March 2023. (Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-059, March 2023.)
      • 2023
      • Article

      Bridging the Gap with the ‘New’ Economic History of Africa

      By: Ewout Frankema and Marlous van Waijenburg
      This review article seeks to build bridges between mainstream African history and the more historically oriented branch of the ‘new’ economic history of Africa. We survey four central topics of the new economic history of Africa—growth, trade, labor, and inequality—and...  View Details
      Keywords: Economic Growth; Trade; Labor; Equality and Inequality; Development Economics; History; Africa
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      Frankema, Ewout, and Marlous van Waijenburg. "Bridging the Gap with the ‘New’ Economic History of Africa." Journal of African History 64, no. 1 (2023): 38–61.
      • March–April 2023
      • Article

      Market Segmentation Trees

      By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
      Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing
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      Aouad, Ali, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira, and Ryan McNellis. "Market Segmentation Trees." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 648–667.
      • March 2023
      • Article

      Not from Concentrate: Collusion in Collaborative Industries

      By: Jordan M. Barry, John William Hatfield, Scott Duke Kominers and Richard Lowery
      The chief principle of antitrust law and theory is that reducing market concentration—having more, smaller firms instead of fewer, bigger ones—reduces anticompetitive behavior. We demonstrate that this principle is fundamentally incomplete.

      In many...  View Details
      Keywords: Antitrust; Antitrust Law; Antitrust Theory; Law And Economics; Collusion; Collaboration; Collaborative Industries; Regulation; "Repeated Games"; IPOs; Initial Public Offerings; Underwriters; Real Estate; Real Estate Agents; Realtors; Syndicated Markets; Syndication; Brokers; Market Concentration; Competition; Law; Economics; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Game Theory; Initial Public Offering
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      Barry, Jordan M., John William Hatfield, Scott Duke Kominers, and Richard Lowery. "Not from Concentrate: Collusion in Collaborative Industries." Iowa Law Review 108, no. 3 (March 2023): 1089–1148.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Accounting for Carbon Offsets – Establishing the Foundation for Carbon-Trading Markets

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Karthik Ramanna and Marc Roston
      Tackling climate change requires reductions in current and future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as well as the removal of existing GHG from the atmosphere. Carbon-offset producers purport to provide such removals. But poor measurement practices and inadequate controls...  View Details
      Keywords: Carbon Offsetting; Climate Change; Environmental Regulation; Corporate Accountability
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Karthik Ramanna, and Marc Roston. "Accounting for Carbon Offsets – Establishing the Foundation for Carbon-Trading Markets." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-050, February 2023.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Outcome-Driven Dynamic Refugee Assignment with Allocation Balancing

      By: Kirk Bansak and Elisabeth Paulson
      This study proposes two new dynamic assignment algorithms to match refugees and asylum seekers to geographic localities within a host country. The first, currently implemented in a multi-year pilot in Switzerland, seeks to maximize the average predicted employment...  View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Refugees; Mathematical Methods
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      Bansak, Kirk, and Elisabeth Paulson. "Outcome-Driven Dynamic Refugee Assignment with Allocation Balancing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-048, January 2022.
      • Working Paper

      Group Fairness in Dynamic Refugee Assignment

      By: Daniel Freund, Thodoris Lykouris, Elisabeth Paulson, Bradley Sturt and Wentao Weng
      Ensuring that refugees and asylum seekers thrive (e.g., find employment) in their host countries is a profound humanitarian goal, and a primary driver of employment is the geographic location within a host country to which the refugee or asylum seeker is...  View Details
      Keywords: Refugees; Geographic Location; Mathematical Methods; Employment; Fairness
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      Freund, Daniel, Thodoris Lykouris, Elisabeth Paulson, Bradley Sturt, and Wentao Weng. "Group Fairness in Dynamic Refugee Assignment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-047, February 2023.
      • December 2022
      • Article

      The Rise of People Analytics and the Future of Organizational Research

      By: Jeff Polzer
      Organizations are transforming as they adopt new technologies and use new sources of data, changing the experiences of employees and pushing organizational researchers to respond. As employees perform their daily activities, they generate vast digital data. These data,...  View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Analytics and Data Science; Technology Adoption; Employees
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      Polzer, Jeff. "The Rise of People Analytics and the Future of Organizational Research." Art. 100181. Research in Organizational Behavior 42 (December 2022). (Supplement.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

      By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov
      Predictive model development is understudied despite its centrality in modern artificial intelligence and machine learning business applications. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms)...  View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science
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      Yue, Daniel, Paul Hamilton, and Iavor Bojinov. "Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-029, December 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
      • 2022
      • Article

      Efficiently Training Low-Curvature Neural Networks

      By: Suraj Srinivas, Kyle Matoba, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Francois Fleuret
      Standard deep neural networks often have excess non-linearity, making them susceptible to issues such as low adversarial robustness and gradient instability. Common methods to address these downstream issues, such as adversarial training, are expensive and often...  View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning
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      Srinivas, Suraj, Kyle Matoba, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Francois Fleuret. "Efficiently Training Low-Curvature Neural Networks." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2022).
      • 2022
      • Article

      OpenXAI: Towards a Transparent Evaluation of Model Explanations

      By: Chirag Agarwal, Satyapriya Krishna, Eshika Saxena, Martin Pawelczyk, Nari Johnson, Isha Puri, Marinka Zitnik and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      While several types of post hoc explanation methods have been proposed in recent literature, there is very little work on systematically benchmarking these methods. Here, we introduce OpenXAI, a comprehensive and extensible opensource framework for evaluating and...  View Details
      Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Analytics and Data Science
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      Agarwal, Chirag, Satyapriya Krishna, Eshika Saxena, Martin Pawelczyk, Nari Johnson, Isha Puri, Marinka Zitnik, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "OpenXAI: Towards a Transparent Evaluation of Model Explanations." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2022).
      • December 2022
      • Article

      Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics

      By: Cheng Gao and Rory McDonald
      In nascent industries—whose new technologies are often poorly understood by regulators—contending with regulatory uncertainty can be crucial to organizational survival and growth. Prior research on nonmarket strategy has largely focused on established firms in mature...  View Details
      Keywords: Technological Change; Innovation; Qualitative Methods; New Categories; Entrepreneurship; Technological Innovation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy
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      Gao, Cheng, and Rory McDonald. "Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics." Administrative Science Quarterly 67, no. 4 (December 2022): 915–967.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Which Explanation Should I Choose? A Function Approximation Perspective to Characterizing Post hoc Explanations

      By: Tessa Han, Suraj Srinivas and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      A critical problem in the field of post hoc explainability is the lack of a common foundational goal among methods. For example, some methods are motivated by function approximation, some by game theoretic notions, and some by obtaining clean visualizations. This...  View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Decision Choices and Conditions; Analytics and Data Science
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      Han, Tessa, Suraj Srinivas, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Which Explanation Should I Choose? A Function Approximation Perspective to Characterizing Post hoc Explanations." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2022). (Best Paper Award, International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) Workshop on Interpretable ML in Healthcare.)
      • November 2022
      • Article

      A Language-Based Method for Assessing Symbolic Boundary Maintenance between Social Groups

      By: Anjali M. Bhatt, Amir Goldberg and Sameer B. Srivastava
      When the social boundaries between groups are breached, the tendency for people to erect and maintain symbolic boundaries intensifies. Drawing on extant perspectives on boundary maintenance, we distinguish between two strategies that people pursue in maintaining...  View Details
      Keywords: Culture; Machine Learning; Natural Language Processing; Symbolic Boundaries; Organizations; Boundaries; Social Psychology; Interpersonal Communication; Organizational Culture
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      Bhatt, Anjali M., Amir Goldberg, and Sameer B. Srivastava. "A Language-Based Method for Assessing Symbolic Boundary Maintenance between Social Groups." Sociological Methods & Research 51, no. 4 (November 2022): 1681–1720.
      • November 2022
      • Article

      Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings

      By: Kristin Blesch, Oliver P. Hauser and Jon M. Jachimowicz
      Prior research has found mixed results on how economic inequality is related to various outcomes. These contradicting findings may in part stem from a predominant focus on the Gini coefficient, which only narrowly captures inequality. Here, we conceptualize the...  View Details
      Keywords: Economic Inequalty; Gini Coefficient; Income Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Social Issues; Health; Status and Position
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      Blesch, Kristin, Oliver P. Hauser, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings." Nature Human Behaviour 6, no. 11 (November 2022): 1525–1536.
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