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- January 2021
- Article
Using Models to Persuade
By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Estimating Causal Effects in the Presence of Partial Interference Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models
By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless...
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- October 2020
- Article
Comparative Statics for Size-Dependent Discounts in Matching Markets
By: David Delacretaz, Scott Duke Kominers and Alexandru Nichifor
We prove a natural comparative static for many-to-many matching markets in which agents’ choice functions exhibit size-dependent discounts: reducing the extent to which some agent discounts additional partners leads to improved outcomes for the agents on the other side...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Design Rules, Volume 2: How Technology Shapes Organizations: Chapter 6 The Value Structure of Technologies, Part 1: Mapping Functional Relationships
Organizations are formed in a free economy because an individual or group perceives value in carrying out a technical recipe that is beyond the capacity of a single person. Technology specifies what must be done, what resources must be assembled, what actions taken in...
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- September 2020
- Case
JOANN: Joannalytics Inventory Allocation Tool
By: Kris Ferreira and Srikanth Jagabathula
Michael Joyce, Vice President of Inventory Management at JOANN, championed an effort to develop and implement an inventory allocation analytics tool that used advanced analytics to predict in-season demand of seasonal items for each of JOANN’s nearly 900 stores and...
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Keywords:
Analytics;
Machine Learning;
Optimization;
Inventory Management;
mathematical methods;
Decision Making;
Operations;
Supply Chain Management;
Resource Allocation;
Distribution;
Technology Adoption;
Software;
Change Management;
Fashion Industry;
Consumer Products Industry;
Retail Industry;
United States;
Ohio
- 2020
- Working Paper
Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments
By: Iavor I Bojinov, David Simchi-Levi and Jinglong Zhao
In switchback experiments, a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to a random treatment, measures its response, and repeats the procedure for several periods to determine which treatment leads to the best outcome. Although practitioners have widely adopted...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Design Rules, Volume 2: How Technology Shapes Organizations: Chapter 5 Ecosystems and Complementarities
The purpose of this chapter is to introduce two new building blocks to the theory of how technology shapes organizations. The first is a new layer of organization structure: a business “ecosystem.” The second is the economic concept of “complementarity.” Ecosystems are...
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- August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
- Technical Note
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools...
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- August 2020
- Technical Note
Comparing Two Groups: Sampling and t-Testing
This note describes sampling and t-tests, two fundamental statistical concepts.
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- Article
Matching in Networks with Bilateral Contracts: Corrigendum
By: John William Hatfield, Ravi Jagadeesan and Scott Duke Kominers
Hatfield and Kominers (2012) introduced a model of matching in networks with bilateral contracts and showed that stable outcomes exist in supply chains when firms' preferences over contracts are fully substitutable. Hatfield and Kominers (2012) also asserted that in...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are
substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior
three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...
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- May 2020
- Article
Inventory Auditing and Replenishment Using Point-of-Sales Data
By: Achal Bassamboo, Antonio Moreno and Ioannis Stamatopoulos
Spoilage, expiration, damage due to employee/customer handling, employee theft, and customer shoplifting usually are not reflected in inventory records. As a result, records often report phantom inventory, i.e., units of good not available for sale. We derive an...
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- 2019
- Article
Configurations of Extremal Type II Codes via Harmonic Weight Enumerators
By: Noam D. Elkies and Scott Duke Kominers
We prove configuration results for extremal Type II codes, analogous to the configuration results of Ozeki and of the second author for extremal Type II lattices. Specifically, we show that for n ∈{8,24,32,48,56,72,96} every extremal Type II code of length n is...
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Keywords:
mathematical methods
- May 2020
- Article
Identifying Sources of Inefficiency in Health Care
By: Amitabh Chandra and Douglas O. Staiger
In medicine, the reasons for variation in treatment rates across hospitals serving similar patients are not well understood. Some interpret this variation as unwarranted and push standardization of care as a way of reducing allocative inefficiency. However, an...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Demystifying the Math of the Coronavirus
By: Elon Kohlberg and Abraham Neyman
We provide an elementary mathematical description of the spread of the coronavirus. We explain two fundamental relationships: How the rate of growth in new infections is determined by the “effective reproductive number” and how the effective reproductive number is...
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- March 2020
- Article
Diagnosing Missing Always at Random in Multivariate Data
By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Natesh S. Pillai and Donald B. Rubin
Models for analyzing multivariate data sets with missing values require strong, often assessable, assumptions. The most common of these is that the mechanism that created the missing data is ignorable—a twofold assumption dependent on the mode of inference. The first...
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- 2019
- Working Paper
Impact Investing: A Theory of Financing Social Entrepreneurship
By: Benjamin N. Roth
I present a model of financing social enterprises to delineate the role of impact investors relative to “pure” philanthropists. I characterize the optimal scale and structure of a social enterprise when financed by grants and when financed by investments. The analysis...
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- January 2020
- Article
The Long-Run Dynamics of Electricity Demand: Evidence from Municipal Aggregation
By: Tatyana Deryugina, Alexander MacKay and Julian Reif
We study the dynamics of residential electricity demand by exploiting a natural experiment that produced large and long-lasting price changes in over 250 Illinois communities. Using a flexible difference-in-differences matching approach, we estimate that the price...
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- December 2019
- Technical Note
Technical Note on Bayesian Statistics and Frequentist Power Calculations
By: Amitabh Chandra and Ariel Dora Stern
This Technical Note provides an introduction to Bayes’ Rule and the statistical intuition that stems from it. In this note, we review the concepts that underlie Bayesian statistics, and we offer several simple mathematical examples to illustrate applications of Bayes’...
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- December 2019
- Article
Costly Concessions: An Empirical Framework for Matching with Imperfectly Transferable Utility
By: Alfred Galichon, Scott Duke Kominers and Simon Weber
We introduce an empirical framework for models of matching with imperfectly transferable utility and unobserved heterogeneity in tastes. Our framework allows us to characterize matching equilibrium in a flexible way that includes as special cases the classic fully- and...
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